Cuppy cake IW draw for Rafa. Gets Fed in the QF, Ferru in SF. Muzz and Nole in the other half.

#VamosGOAT

Actually it's Berdych having the cupcake! He need not face Nole until the final, if he can get that far. He needs Fed to take out Rafa for him, which can be done given Rafa is short of match play on the hard court. If Murray can take out Nole too, then who knows it may be a Berdych vs Murray final! Depending on the wind at IW, if the wind doesn't come, then Berdych may fancy his chance vs Murray.

Looks like Conspirator will have to call me chr11-18 after next week.

All it takes to turn around Fed's H2H with Nadal is for them to meet more often on HC. That's not been easy though coz Nadal has been absent from competition for several HC tournaments over the past 3-4 years.

^^^ ... possibly but only provided that it's not a hard court grand slam of course.

Ting!

#Humble

^^^ and also not on outdoor hard courts. Rafa is 5-2 vs Fed on outdoor hard courts. I'm not sure it'll be 11-18, most likely 10-19 should they get to meet. Looking at how Fed played against Berdych, I think he'll fare worse than that against Rafa!

Fed is already out of form. Add to that the draw involving his 2 nemesis in Qf and Sf (Rafa and Big Bird). I dont see much positives for Fed at I/W. Still, I would hope that he regains his form that saw him through the title last year.

Er.. I think it's Fed being absent at the hard court slam finals the past two years! The last time I checked, Fedal were 1-1 on hard courts in 2011 and 2012, and Rafa has the advantage at the hard court slams both times they met. Had they met more often on the hard courts, they're H2H would still be close, simply because Rafa is better than Fed on slower courts and Fed better
on fast courts; so if they're good enough to meet on fast hard courts to give Fed the advantage, they're also good enough to meet on slow hard courts to give Rafa the advantage, unless we assume Fed's not good enough on the slower hard courts to meet Rafa there. They met five times on fast hard courts - Dubai, TMC Shanghai 2006/2007, WTF 2010/2011, it's 4-1 advantage Fed. They met six times on slower hard courts - Miami 2004/2005/2011, AO 2009
& 2012, IW 2012, it's 4-2 advantage Rafa. I don't see how Fed can better his H2H vs Rafa going forward even if they meet more often!

I totally forgot that today was the day the draw for I/W comes out! Rafa got a very good draw! If I had to pick anyone, it would be Fed. He's not playing well right now and as lucky illustrated in her post above, Rafa has the advantage over Fed on slower hard courts.

This idea that Fed will improve his h2h is something that his fans are hoping for, but I am afraid that it's not going to happen.

This draw is definitely good news for Rafa!

Fed has fared miserably against Rafa on clay and outdoor hard courts and yet we have some morons shooting their mouth off saying if they meet on HC, H2H will be overturned. Make that Indoor HC , makes more sense. Have you forgotten 5-2 on outdoor HC?

Not sure why people are saying good draw for Rafa..Fed in QF is a good draw? huh? Given lack of match practice on HC, Fed is likely to beat Rafa here unless Rafa really springs a surprise and Fed plays badly (both are a possibility). However I would give 70% advantage to Fed

I mailed RG yesterdaya nd they said RG does not change seedings like Wimby does. If Rafa is ranked No 5, he will be seeded 5. It is horrible to have the real top 4 square off in the QF.

^^^ Still early to worry about that, sanju. Sometimes things may turn out not as bad as we thought.

Who are these "morons" shooting off their mouths? civility evades some morons.

"However I would give 70% advantage to Fed."

And yet we are morons? expected.

Why can't some of you stop being so abusive and discuss stuff civilly, even if you diasgree? I guess such civilities are only applicable to 'morons".

If some "morons" don't comment, some of you won't have any topic to debate. and be abusive. Be happy there are morons to help you out. moron

The whole forum knows about you , so nothing new here

70% advantage here in IW to Fed because of Rafas lack of match practice on HC , that doesnt equal to say Rafa and Fed should continue to play on HC and the H2H will get overturned particularly when it is not substantiated by past encounters on outdoor HC . Get the difference?

This is the best possible draw for Rafa. I think he has a shot to reach the finals where he will surely be defeated by Djokovic or Murray

And, they know about you too. You are just as abusive as the majority here. so nothing new here.anyone reading can see how personal you and the majority like to get their points across by being abusive. So what's new.

Discussion over. get the difference? moron..

Yes Atul..beating Djokovic or Murray is out of question so early on a HC

Even Fed and Berdy will be a tough prospect though not impossible

Good draw for Rafa. What is better than having the prospect of Ferru in the Qtrs - the prospect of having him in the SF.

Vamos Rafa

I wonder what Federer's motivation is like if he does meet Rafa. He must feel that a win here is really important; absence and all that factored in.

You can see highlights of the exho here

http://www.espn.co.uk/tennis/sport/story/196038.html?CMP=OTC-R SS#

Positives in Delpo defeat for Nadal
Greg Garber
March 5, 2013


? News: Nadal still in pain but buoyed by 'one of my best finals'

When he was first introduced to the raucous crowd at Madison Square Garden, Rafael Nadal bounded down the steps behind the end zone, navigated a few dicey yards behind the barricade around the court ?

Rafa and Del Potro seemed comfortable taking big cuts at the ball and wayward shots regularly careered into the stands. In one early point, Nadal went up for a difficult backhand overhead and really torqued it. At two-all in the first, Del Potro sent an arching lob over Nadal, who turned and sprinted at what looked like full speed. He didn't land the ball in the court, but he bumped into the back wall with sufficient force to leave the impression at least in the near-heat of battle, that he wasn't overly concerned with his knee.......

So chr18, you think Fed will be rubbing his hands in glee at drawing Rafa in his Qtr?

too bad Rafa and Fed get to meet in the quarters...I was hoping they would meet at the later stage because I think they both deserve to be in the semis...However, call me too optimistic but I don't think Rafa will lose to Fed...I believe Rafa will have enough HC practice until the QTs and will be ready to face Fed...
there is no such thing as easy draw...we sure learned it by now...IMO Nole's and Murray's draws are even easier than Rafa's...I hope Rafa feels comfortable at the courts of IW and that he is ready to display some of his best tennis...
Vamos Rafa!

Just seeing Rafa's name in the draw is very exciting. Rafa is a past champion and finalist, so he has had success at IW before.

Sanju, easy draw in a relative sense. Rafa drew the easiest in the current Top 4. I'd rather he play Fed than any of the other guys at IW this year.

Doesn't mean he'll beat Fed of course should they meet. Given it's Rafa's first hard court tourney back, I'd only give him a 60% chance of beating Fed at IW assuming both get past the first three rounds. Shouldn't be hard for Fed.

By ranking, Rafa might get Harrison, Youzhny and Tipsy. If he wins those, it means that he will have played himself into sufficient form to give Fed a good match.

#VamosGOAT

In addition, given the lowered expectations on Rafa, all of the pressure is on Fed with 1000 points to defend and Muzz breathing down his neck for the No. 2 spot.

Should Fed lose before the semis, Muzz only needs to make the final to pass him.

If Muzz wins IW, he will pass Fed automatically.

#VamosGOAT

Really? Nadal would rather face Fed than Ferrer in QF? LMAO! Have we forgotten 'pee-gate' from just last year's SF match?

Ferru and Fed would provide different challenges at IW. Ferru would result in much longer rallies and, even though Rafa might be an even bigger favourite to beat him, it would be a much harder test of his knees at this point so I'd actually prefer that he fell in Fed's quarter.

Fed is more of a comfortable punching bag for Rafa for lack of a better term.

#VamosGOAT

Here are the current odds at IW to win. Fed is a very slight favourite over Rafa even though Rafa hasn't played on a hard court in 12 months!!! I guess the oddsmakers are right. 12 months away from hard courts for Rafa somewhat gives Roger a sporting chance at least.

Djokovic, Novak 2.00
Murray, Andy 3.50
Federer, Roger 6.00
Nadal, Rafael 7.00
Berdych, T 10.00
Del Potro, J M 12.00

#VamosGOAT

If Rafa meets Ferru, Rafa will dictate play and Ferru is not going to be able to engage Rafa in long rallies because Rafa has changed his style to attack.

There is no pressure on Rafa at IW. If they both get to the final, Djokovic will have the problem of not being the first to lose 20 times to Rafa, Fed has 1000 points to defend and he needs to defend them so if they meet all the pressure will be on him as Fed will not want to extend Rafa positive h2h over him.

No one is expecting Rafa to do anything at IW and Miami so he will be relaxed.

Brink it on!


Vamos Rafa

In case of a fedal match (seems likely now, on paper) Roger better win. Else it will look really bad on him, given Nadal 7 months absence. And the excuses will be ugly, quite likely.

#PictureOfDorianGray

^^ This is exactly what I was thinking. I haven't seen Rafa play except in Chile but if he's as loose as people are making him out to be, then he certainly is going in with a nothing to lose mentality. That is dangerous for Roger, but what will the motivation do for him? Will he come out firing?

Secondly, of course, this is best of 3. Federer has shown it is pretty much even when it is best of 3 between these 2.

Realisticly, Rafa and Roger should not be meeting before the SF, but the stupid system which allows a player's ranking to be judged only on ranking points over 52 weeks regardless of whether they were out for half the year with injury makes it possible. This is why Rafa was fighting for a 2 year ranking system. After a year out, Delpo came back ranked 484 or something when he was #5 before he took injury time out. That's ludicrous.

samprallica, if you haven't seen Rafa play since Chile then you are missing something. Even his performance on indoor h/c in Madison Sq Gdns against a big server like Delpo, Rafa was hitting winners at will. If it was a serious contest, I think Rafa would have won it.

Here is the link to the full match of the Acapulco findal:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEenzlj5Ejc

Forgot to mention...

luckystar, 3/6/13 5:22 AM

^^^ I like this synopsis (which is completely at the other end of the spectrum from another poster or two with absolutely nothing constructive nor illuminating to add to the conversation).

#VamosGOAT

Tiggy picks a Nole-Rafa final which I agree is most likely...

http://tinyurl.com/auqapu4

#VamosGOAT

Here is a longer version of the echo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VuLvVgL sHzo#!

Exho Nadal vs Delpo full match

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEsW5Nd8kaw

On the eve of this year's 1st Masters 1000, here is an interesting take on how last year's 1000 level tournaments fared. Love the comments on Madrid...

dlvr.it/2hDLSG

#VamosRAFA

Have some of you forgotten who beat Nadal last year at IW in the SF, when Nadal was 100%? Federer. Hence, I dont see why for Fed it's of the utmost importance for him to win this IW matchup, especially considering Nadal is back to form, having just won 2 titles, beating Ferrer 6-0 and 6-2, and Fed not playing in-form at the present time. To any objective *fan of tennis* it's clear as the blue sky, that Fed's form has declined considerably over the past two years. The man is 32 years old, playing against guys 6 and 7 years younger, who are in their prime.

Should Nadal lose to Fed, I think the ugly excuses will be forthcoming from his side, e.g., he's been off the tour for 7 months, and has not played on HC , etc., etc.. Overall, in best of 3 matches, it's 8/6 in favor of Nadal. The big difference in the H2H numbers is on clay where Nadal has gotten the upperhand, because clay is his best surface, and He beats most of the players. On HC they are tied 5-5.

Yes, Fed didn't show up in some HC tournaments, but we/re not talking past, we're talking present, and Nadal has not shown up at all in those tournaments thus preventing the possibility of them meeting? e.g., Dubai, Rotterdam, Cincy, USO, WTF and AO 2013. That's not Fed's problem is it? However, if Nadal were present at those tournaments, he also might not have shown up also as he could have ended up on the other side of Fed's draw, and lose to another player early before the final. and, even if he was on Fed's side of the draw same scenario, either one could have lost early to other players. But, if they did meet, who knows what would have happened? That's just 6 HC tournaments off the top of my head, (without looking at the stats) over the past year that Nadal chose not to play.

To sum it up, Fed has been in the *draws* in many HC tournaments, but Nadal has been absent from those tournaments altogether, which makes it impossible for them to meet, thus preserving Nadal's H2H over Fed. Had Nadal been in the draw in those tournaments, the possibility of them facing each other could be about 50-70%, depending on which side of the draw they fell. Thus, this thought about Fed not showing up in the past is skewed, for the reasons I've outlined above., e.g., the side of the draw they were placed, and also losing to another player early, as in Wimbledon last year, when they were both playing in the tournament.

The facts are that Nadal has been absent from several HC tournaments for several years, (but more so in the past year) and/or been drawn on the opposite side of the draw, which is clearly beneficial to Nadal, thereby assisting Nadal to maintain his positive H2H over Fed, especially if either one loses early.

When did Rafa being absent from many HC tournaments? In 2005, he didnt play at IW (went to SA to play on clay) but played at Miami and almost beat Fed. Rafa was only an 18 yo back then when Fed was already the no.1. Rafa played at Canada that year(won it), lost early at Cincy and played at Madrid hard courts, while Fed was absent at Canada and. Madrid. Both
didnt play at Paris Masters that year (Rafa was also injured after Madrid). So, Rafa didn't miss much of the hard court Masters. Rafa missed the AO in 2006 due to injury and he beat Fed at Dubai that year. Both Rafa and Fed didnt miss any HC Masters that year except the Paris Masters. Rafa hardly missed any hard court Masters, only skipping the Paris Masters in 2010/2011. He was injured for most part of 2012, how do we expect him to play on the hard courts and meet Fed there??

Also why would Rafa be expected to appear at Rotterdam and Dubai, when they're not mandatory? Anyway, as I've mentioned, if they meet on slow HCs and fast HCs equal number of times, the most likely results would be Rafa winning most of the slow HCs and Fed the quick hard courts, simple as that. If Rafa is good enough to reach the SFs/Fs on quick hard courts to meet Fed there, why won't he do the same on the slow hard courts? The likely results would be their H2H on hard courts being close. Strange that some concentrate on the fast hard courts but forget the slower ones.

As I said, I'm not talking past but present, within the last 12 months going back to IW last year. And, going by just that, Fed was at Madrid, Wimby Cincy, USO, WTF, and AO, which are all mandatory tournaments, (HCs, slow and fast is not the issue) but Nadal lost early at Madrid, and Wimby, and was absent from the others. That said, Fed has gotten very little opportunity to make his H2H better against Nadal, over the past 12 months, not counting previous years. H2h seems to be of the utmost importance. I suppose it's unimportant and easy to forget that Fed has 17 GS and Nadal only 11?

"Strange that some concentrate on the fast hard courts but forget the slower ones."

Who's the 'some"? And, why the tone? Not necessary. I should know better. Me getting on a Nadal thread is only opening up myself to being referred to as "moron" and derogatory comments such as "(which is completely at the other end of the spectrum from another poster or two with absolutely nothing constructive nor illuminating to add to the conversation)." this from the resident so-called expert on all things not tennis, and throwing flames.

Anyway, moving on ....

Well aren't Dubai and Rotterdam the fast hard courts?? As I said, Rafa was absent for most part of 2012 so how's he going to play at Cincy, USO, WTF and AO? Why won't Fed play at MC or Barcelona then? If Rafa wasn't injured, who knows how he would fare later half of 2012??

Fed does have that few years head start over Rafa, so lets see when their careers end, what are their achievements then before forming any conclusion.

At "recent" slams when Rafa was there, where was Fed?

Where was Fed at 2012 FO? Oh yes, lost to Nole.
Where was Fed at 2012 AO? Oh yes, lost to Rafa.
Where was Fed at 2011 USO? Oh yes, lost to Nole.
Where was Fed at 2011 Wimby? Oh yes, lost to Tsonga.
Where was Fed at 2011 FO? Oh yes, lost to Rafa.
Where was Fed at 2010 USO? Oh yes, lost to Nole
Where was Fed at 2010 Wimby? Oh yes, lost to Birdbrain
Where was Fed at 2010 FO? Oh yes, lost to Soderling

So much for THAT "argument." Ting!

#Humble

hard versus slow IS altogether relevant, esp in the fedal matchup.

For many years now EVERY time they meet Roger seems to be clearly at an advantage surface-wise on only one surface: fast hard court (esp indoors).

There were a few exceptions. There are always exceptions of course. Eg by the way their matchup and matches have gone... the last time they met at IW we expected Rafa to do a lot better than he did. And sometimes Rafa has given Roger a surprisingly hard time on the fast indoor hardcourt.

So overal their H2H does tell a pretty clear and relevant picture. As does their H2H broken down by fast HC, slow HC, grass and clay.

Their GS total comparison tells a pretty clear and relavant picture. At 5 years younger and about 3 years less on tour Rafa has 11 slams to Roger's 17. Had Rafa not had a congenital foot problem and ran like crazy as a young pro and so not had as many long injury time-outs we know he would have had at least one more RG by now and very likely one, two and just maybe three more other GS. In turn Roger would still not have a career slam, and at least one fewer GS. Overal Rafa is tracking Roger relatively evenly on the GS count, esp taking injuries into consideration (yes, I know, nothing Roger can do about that, and Roger has taken good care of himself that way, bad back and mono notwithstanding.) While it is likely that Roger will retire with more GS than Rafa will retire with, the numbers will be relatively close (assuming Rafa remains mostly injury free for another 2 or 3 years on the circuit). All in all, two absolutely superb astonishing careers - esp in the light of how physical and fast the game has become and how much more demanding a full year of tournaments is today compared to a generation and two ago. We already know that both will be remembered for at least a generation or two (three?) as two among the very few top male tennis players of all time.

^hard versus slow was meant to read: fast versus slow hard court

Tennis Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l01BSsd9rF0