Come on, Nole, you can do it, we believe in you majstore! :) Winning the FO and taking the gold in London would be apsolutely incredible! Wimbledon as well, and I'm happy with 2012. :)

As long as he doesn't face Federer in the other 3 GS, he has REAL chances of doing it.

Hehehe... I can't hardly wait for Novak to repeat their last result... 6:2,6:1... isn't it?

i seriously doubt Federer can repeat his performance at Paris. Only with a similiar performamce can he beat Nole on clay. However, he is most dangerous af Wimbledon. And I don't care much about the US Open. FO, Wimbledon, gold at the Olympics and, say, 3-4 Masters would be fantastic. Here is to hoping. :)

Nemanja, I'll be a bit less demanding :). A Nole slam (just the FO '12.) would suffice and an Olympic gold. I would really like Murray to win his first slam as I think he really finally deserves one. I like him more and more. As for other tournaments, whoever plays the best should win.

Just do it dude!!!

danica, 2/1/12 1:55 AM

my thoughts exactly.

Cheers guys, for good Andy wishes, but alas we don't always get what we "deserve." :(

It hasn't happened for more than 40 years.

Just winning the FO will be unprobable, less all 4 in 2012.

But he has a shot and it isn't nadal that's going to stop him, maybe Roger or Murray.
He definitely has a chance but history is against him.

it's only Nadal who can stop him at FO...and deep inside you know it, bleck...it is just so hard for you to accept the truth...Fed at this FO will be no threat at all and Nole will be lucky if he gets Fed in the semis rather than Andy or Delpo...

I don't know much about Andy and his play on clay. Although, he did good in Rome last year. But Federer will be easy pickings for Nole should they meet. Like I said, only with a performance similiar to last year in the semi's does he have a chance. But the probability of him repeating it is slim to none.

Nadal has no chance of stopping him? lol Nadal is arguably the best clay courter ever. IMO, only Djokovic has a chance of beating him in Paris. Nadal is most dangerous on clay.

You guys make it sound as if Fed is terrible on clay, and has no game for it.

You also fail to remember that its this same Fed that has gone on to the finals of the FO 5 times although losing the same guy who just happens to be the best on clay. Some individuals dream of making just ONE RG final, let alone 5. The only reason he DIDN'T make it to the final the one year is because of a certain Robin Soderling having a break through year.

Hate Fed all you want, but think with a level head about it. By saying Murray has a better chance than Fed at being Nole on clay is simply arrogance on your part.

Well said aegis. It is arrogant for nemanja and natashao to think that Roger can't beat Nole again at RG or anywhere else. Just like Rafa matches well with Rog and Nole to Rafa, Roger actually matches very well with Nole. They have had very close encounters recently and Nole may have got the better end at recent USO, but if he drops a level and Roger is close to form then I give Fed a good chance.

Also, I feel that Nole will not have the same sort of year as he had in 2011. I'm not saying he won't have another great year, just don't expect the sort of win-loss record he had last year. As it is also an Olympic year, there is just that added load on top of defending all those points he won till USO.

I am not saying Fed will be no threat because of his game...he sure has it in himself and his best game can beat anyone...I am saying that he won't be able to put up with Nole in terms of fitness and I certainly do not expect him to play for five hours and emerge as a winner...that is why I believe he would be easier opponent for Nole than Murray who can play long rallies as much as Nole can...and isn't that what clay court game is about...don't think serve and volley game will work on clay...

I agree with the fitness of Fed, especially at 30, but he does seem to be in decent shape for his age. Much better than say Roddick or Davy. But to your point on serve and volley, it's questionable. I mean, like I said, his style has served him well to get to the finals of 5 RGs but one would think he may tweak his game slightly this year being 30 and all. I can't imagine a drastic change, if it's worked so well for him, but I would think he must change something. I'm sure his team will figure it out, it's not like he has 16 GS on luck alone.

Unfortunately for Murray, as many analysts have mentioned, he's getting the shaft. In any other era, he would have a slam by now. It must be incredibly frustrating to have not one, but THREE great athletes to compete with. Unless he raises his game and takes it to the next level, I can't see him winning a slam any time soon. He will win one eventually though. With Nadal and Fed getting older, it will be his window of opportunity to seize.

Blah Blah Blah,
Murray can beat Federer NOW.
And shall be an increasing force throughout the year as he finally matures.
Both Nadal and Novak shall have their hands full. From Dubai onwards.

And he's maturing rapidly,
Right before our eyes, whether you are capable of seeing it or not.

i never said Federer can't beat Nole. Ln fact, his game is more troubling for nole than Rafa. At least right now. But clay is his weakest surface.

This is taken out of context.He never said he wants Calendar Slam.He said his priorities are Roland Garros and Olympics.He never mentioned Wimby or US Open or Calendar Slam in that interview.The immature Djokovic from 2008 would say "I will win every slam this year" but not 2012 one.

OMG.... the word is " D R E A M "
I can dream to win all four GS... my grandma can dream about it... my 6 years old son can dream about it.... what the heck... even Exfed can dream about it!

The fact that Nole never played FO finals and that Roger played it 5 times is a bit misleading simply because Nole always, save from once, played Rafa in the semis. Yes, it's simple as that. What was the year Roger was beaten something like 61,63,60 in the finals, while Novak played a better match in the semis and was the only one that actually gave some resistance to Rafa? Things should be put a bit more into perspective.

Why only dream about the calendar year grand slam? Why not the calendar year golden slam?

On CLAY, only Djokovic can do something against Rafa. Even then, Rafa is the favourite. I'm not being arrogant, it's a fact. He beat him twice on clay last year and came close in Madrid in 2009. Federer I believe beat Nadal only ONCE on clay, and that was after that epic semifinal Nadal won against Djokovic.

Nole is the likeliest spoiler for another Rafa FO title, no doubt about it. Unless Soderling or maybe even a dark horse like Delpo comes along.

I think Djokovic will be delighted to win the FO and Olympic gold this year. It would not only complete a 'non-calender slam', which is an achievement above 'career slam', but also the addition of Olympic gold would mean that he would have every major trophy in his cabinet. Rafa is still searching for his first WTF title and Fed his first Olympic gold in singles.

Don't be so quick you all to dismiss Andy's chances. Ivan won RG more than once. Andy, without Me Lendl, got to the semis last year. You need to factor in the "Ivan Effect" into all future predictions...;)

Twinge...

Murray is not just maturing but he is also getting OLDER and that too before your eyes.

No offense but 25 yrs age and ZERO slam is the bottom line and rest everything is

Blah Blah Blah!!

fanny4tennis,
Last time I checked 'maturing' was another word for getting older, he's hardly ageing yet is he?
lol!
Just you concern yourself with your Idols oncoming retirement, whether he is yet aware of it or not. It will soon become an unavoidable necessity if he is to protect his legacy.
We shall see how Murray does for the rest of the year. Just be patient!
Blah Blah Blah!!

Andy joined the pro tour in 2005. He is "young" in tennis years.

Twinge..

My idol has achieved whatever he has dreamed of as childhood it doesn't matter if he wins another match or not so RIP with it !!

Deuce ...

He is young but he has entered the peak age for tennis.

Fanny4,
I doubt when Roger was growing up, seeing the likes of Lendl, Sampras, Edberg, Becker etc on TV that even in his wildest dreams could he imagine that all that would be stopping him from getting to a double figure slam count would be the likes of Phillipoussis, Bagdhatis, Gonzales, Roddick & so on.
Nobody's dreams are that far fetched!

Twinge...

okay ...keep living in your virtual thinking world and what-if scenarios.

No these are not what if scenarios,
These are FACTS.
You were the one babbling on about little Rogers "childhood dreams"
Just thought I'd keep the theme running to help with your comprehension!

Murray might set the record as the player who won his first grand slam at 30 years old.

I think Murray has a good chance of winning the USO this year. IMO, Rafa will be the one winning the FO/Wim/Olympics, simply because he's the best on clay/grass at the moment, now that Fed is getting older. Though Nole won two clay masters last year and Wimbledon, that does not mean that he's a sure in for FO/Wim; especially after this AO final where I can see even on slow hard courts, how hard it is for Nole to fend off Rafa.

If we're talking about a tired Nole at AO, what about the USO last year? Wasn't Nole coming off a four hour battle against Fed in the SF two days before the Final? See how Nole easily got the upper hand over Rafa in the final there? Compare to this AO, though Rafa had one more day rest, Rafa had it harder starting from his QF against Berdych, so Rafa's legs were not fresh either. Rafa certainly has made improvements in the way he played against Nole. I would like Rafa to serve a slider serve outside, and not his spinny one that ends up in the strike zone of Nole. Rafa should look at how Fed served so effectively at the WTF2010, that slider serve out wide at the deuce court, where none of the top eight players could get a hand at it then. With a better unreturnable serve(slider, body and down the T), improved court position, improved backhand CC and DTL, and playing more FH to FH with Nole, coming to the net more often, he'll have a better chance of beating a well rested Nole at IW.

Rafa moves better than anyone else on clay and equally well with Fed on grass. He should be the unofficial favorite for these two events, though the official one may be Nole. Murray can play well on grass too but there's too much pressure on him at Wimbledon. By USO the Lendl factor should take it's effect, so I expect Murray to get his first slam at this year's USO, maybe beating Nole in the final! Time for Murray to do something, now that he'll be 25 soon.

Oh tethys, please don't, lol! I'm giving Andy two more years, as mani4tennis says, "prime years" for most players and, although there are noble exceptions, 'tis true.
If Andy hasn't achieved a slam by then, I'll give up, throw my hands in the air, and start shouting for Tomic, Dimitrov and...... oh yes Brody ;)

Tethys might set the record as the first poster not to be toilet trained until he was 30years old!

"I think Murray has a good chance of winning the USO this year. IMO, Rafa will be the one winning the FO/Wim/Olympics, simply because he's the best on clay/grass at the moment, now that Fed is getting older.."

Now that Federer is getting older?
No one puts him as a favourite for any slam anymore it's not a logical prediction, at best it comes from the heart. And well, saying Nadal is the favourite for Wimbledon is also from the heart too. Come on, Novak has earned the right to be the favourite at all of the slams, bar one Roland Garros. I agree with you about Murray however it's time he put up or shut up.
A bit more machismo is required. Maybe Lendl shall help him find his inner warrior.

"Though Nole won two clay masters last year and Wimbledon, that does not mean that he's a sure in for FO/Wim; especially after this AO final where I can see even on slow hard courts, how hard it is for Nole to fend off Rafa..."

It's on slow hard courts where Rafa had the best chance to upset Novak. Particularly after a relatively much easier semi final & where he had a days more rest coming to the final with a distinct advantage. He still lost after dragging it on with tiebreak sets for 6 hrs when Novak looked dead on his feet. Had Novak flattened Andy in the semis, I doubt it would have been anything like the marathon it became. It's not easy to accept when your favourite has been usurped, but unfortunately that is what we have here. It's a tactical problem i believe more than a match up one. For now at least. Rafa understands this too and I'm sure knows he's somehow going to have to stop playing so far behind the baseline or he will continue to lose to Novak, & that's about as certain as it gets in sport.

Slow courts, hard courts, blah, blah, blah. There is not a tissue paper between Rafa and the others on h/c. How long did it take Nole to barely beat Rafa on Sunday? SIX HOURS short of 7 minis and Rafa could easily have won that match. If Nole was so much better on that court he would have won it far more easily. Rafa beat the proclaimed king of H/C - Federer, in the SF.

If Rafa wins the clay season plus Wimbledon and defends his Olympic title that will be enough for me. I think Muzz has a good chance of winning his first GS this year, so long as it's not RG, because I want Rafa to win his 7th title there.

Nadline, I'd like to remind you that you (Rafa fans, not you specifically) said that Rafa would beat Nole easily on clay because he pushed him to three sets on HC (IW, Miami). But what happened? Nole crushed him in Madrid and Rome. So, just because Rafa pushed Novak to 5 sets on HC, doesn't mean he'll crush Djoko on clay. Rafa has improved so much on HC, but so did Nole on clay. While I do give advantage on HC to Nole and Rafa on clay, I expect each match (or 95% of them) to be close and decided by few points. Regardless of the surface. IMO, no one is CLEAR fav for RG or Wimbledon.

nemanja, I was making the case for Rafa on h/c, I didn't mention clay. Because Rafa has dominated clay in this era, people tend to write him off on h/c and they used to do so on grass until he decisively proved himself on that surface. Rafa won olympic gold on a fast h/c, still some people hold on the the idea that he is no good on it.

Even when Rafa had a commanding h2h lead over Nole, I always thought that their matches were never a given as to the winner. I am fairly sure that Rafa is 70% sure to beat Federer whenever they meet, except indoors and if Murray plays out of his skin on every point when Rafa is fit, Murray could win, with Nole I've always thought it was 50/50.

I'd like to think that Rafa is the clear favourite for RG simply because he is more likely to go through the earlier rounds with more ease than the others. You have to give him credit for what he's achieved on the surface since the age of 19, you can't just dismiss it.

Whoa, another round of arguments about to start? First I've already given my reason why I don't buy the idea of Nole being more tired than Rafa(please see my post above) and yet I see someone repeating this Nole is tired thing again! If he's tired, he couldn't go toe to toe with Rafa for six hours! If you want to compare Nole/Murray vs Rafa/Verdasco 2009, I suggest you go and watch that AO 2009 SF again and see the intensity, the physical and mental toll it took on the body of the players. That SF lasted even longer than this Nole/Murray SF, and with more winners too!

What's the difference between Nole/Fed USO and Nole/Murray AO? Nole also had one day rest before the final and yet he played better at the USO than this AO! To say that Rafa pushed Nole close because Nole was tired didn't sound logical to me, as Rafa already spent more time on the court than Nole before the AO final. All I can say is Rafa is getting back his game and his confidence after this match. He started feeling nervous and without confidence but played the right way, hence he won the first set. In the second set he reverted back to his old way of CC forehand to Nole's backhand, was nervous while serving to stay in he set and double fault to lose the second set. The third set ran away from him quickly and it was when his back was against the wall in the fourth set, as he was about to go home, that his warrior nature resurfaced and he fought hard to win the fourth set. I do believe him that after that his mental block against Nole was gone, because he realized that as long as he fought for it, he could beat Nole. Now in the fifth set, he did get nervous and missed the passing shot, not because it was Nole in particular, but rather against any opponent at tha point of time, as his opponent was one good returner of serves and he had to take risk in order to hold his own serve.

I said IMO, Rafa is the unofficial favorite while Nole is the official favorite, for precisely the reason that Nole is the defending champion at Wimbledon. Just think, Murray and Fed both have the ability to take down Nole at Wimbledon, while they can't beat Rafa there. At the FO, Fed can take down Nole but he can't take down Rafa, so who has a better chance of reaching the final at both FO and Wimbledon and winning them?

Nadline, I'm not dimsssing what Rafa did. In fact, I said Rafa is the favourite for the FO. To me, he's the best clay courter in the history. But if ANYONE is going to take down Rafa at RG, it's Nole. I'm not saying he will, but he's got the best shot. His game on clay has improved (by lots). Federer has shown he can't do it, Murray...well, don't know much about his clay court game, does he have any decent results? Maybe perhaps guys like Soderling, Ferrer have a chance but Nadal is a better player so I don't think they can.

People who say Rafa is not good on HC are crazy. Yes, it's not his favourite surface, but compare his game on HC today and from 4-5 years ago. He is miles better than he was.

Lucky, while I don't think Nole was that much tired for the final, certainly the 4h 50min (?) against Andy took his toll on him and affected him a liittle against Nadal.

Maybe, Nole is a better hard court player than Rafa, judging by the number of major hard court titles he has. It's just that Rafa has made some improvement against Nole compared to last year's USO. I think it doesn't matter who's the favorite, for there're matches to be played and there're other good players that they've to beat before they can reach the final. It's just that we all have our own opinions but our opinions don't determine the outcome of the matches.

I think we can take Sod out of the equation beause there were extenuating circumstances surrounding his win over Rafa at RG. that's been well documented so I won't bore you with the details. Inspite of it being said that Federer is the king of h/c, his h2h with Rafa on outdoor h/c is 5:1 to Rafa, indoor, it's 4:0 to Federer. OK, so when Rafa started he wasn't as good on h/c as he was on clay but he was still beating the so-called h/c specialists.

No one is unbeatable at any time, anywhere, it's the odds that vary from one player to the other. Murray has to literally play out of his skin to beat Rafa when he is fully fit and firing on all cylinders. Murray has the game to beat anyone but his level is inconsistent.

It's just that we all have our own opinions but our opinions don't determine the outcome of the matches.
luckystar , 2/3/12 12:33 PM


Just as well. I've often said it's a good thing that the outcome of matches is not decided by a panel of judges because Rafa would only have won anything on clay.

I agree with nadline's post at 11:05 am regarding Rafa being the favorite to win the FO. I also agree that you cannot disregard his record at this event. He has only lost once, for heaven's sake! To play all those years and win six titles and lose one match! Unbelievable!

That record cannot be ignored. This is where has always played his best, where he has commanded the court like no one since Borg. I realize that Nole's dominance last year and defending his title at this year's AO would normally make him a favorite almost anywhere, but this is different. He has yet to win his first slam there. If he does, then that will be quite an accomplishment.

I also think that some perspective might be helpful. A little over a year ago, Rafa was going for his fourth straight slam title. Nole came along and played some great tennis, was fitter than ever and mentally tougher. So now he is the one who will have the chance to go for his fourth slam title in a row.

Things can change very quickly in this sport. After 2010, Rafa was supposed to dominate tennis. Now Nole is supposed to dominate. We will have to wait and see how it all turns out.

I think there will be more than one favorite for Wimbledon. This is one slam where Fed can't be counted out. I can see Rafa and Nole being favorites. However, in the end as Rafa has always said so well, it's what happens on the court that counts. We can say this one and that one is the favorite, but it will not affect what actually happens.

Whoever is the favorite doesn't matter. What's more important is that we enjoy the tennis matches being played, especially when our favorite player(s) is(are) involved.

I'm rewatching the Nole/Murray AO SF now, just noticed Murray was winning most of the longer rallies in this match. Wow, Murray is certainly getting closer to beating Nole these days. Both he and Fed certainly don't have the mental block aginst Nole, unlike Rafa. Since Rafa is feeling positive even when he lost the final, I hope he can play freely next time he meets Nole. To me if Rafa's game is clicking well, he can beat Nole, just stop being so predictable, and make full use of his whole arsensal of shots and comes forward more often. Noticed that once Rafa comes forward in his own terms, he normally wins the point.

I think this year the top four guys will still dominate the slams and the masters, I'm just curious to know at the end of the year, will there be changes in the rankings among the top four.

lucky, I've long thought Andy certainly held Rafa and probably Fed in far too much awe. Don't think for a moment he feels like that about Nole. Probably feels a bit cross, with himself, that Nole has streaked ahead!

I always like unorthodox or unique players; that's why I like Rafa very much because there's still so much Rafa can improve on. He has his unique way of playing on clay, master the skills to play on grass by moving closer to the baseline and playing more aggressively. Now he has to adjust his game to play well and win slams on the hard courts. I see him changing and modifying his game to play on different surfaces and that's something very interesting, unlike Fed and Nole, who's game style suits all surfaces. Maybe because of that people thought that both Fed and Nole are more versatile players and can win on all surfaces. However, they've forgotten that Rafa has successfully morphed from a clay courter into an equally versatile player like Fed and now Nole. The Rafa during mid 2008 to mid 2009 was almost unbeatable on clay and grass, and was very good on hard courts. He lost a total of eight matches, one on clay (because of a bad foot blister after playing for two consecutive weeks on clay) and seven on the hard courts, from MC 08 to Miami 09. He had his best start to a season in 2009 but it's a pity he was injured midway through the season. He had proven his worth on hard courts by winning two hard court slams during 2009/2010 beating Fed and Nole, the two best hard court players around. Even when he's off his 2010 he still reached the finals of USO and AO, beating Fed, Murray, Berdych, Roddick along the way. There's nothing not versatile about Rafa.

deuce - if Rafa retires before Murray, I'll certainly go support Murray. Murray is one interesting player because he's so unpredictable but so brilliant when his game is on. Rafa wasn't predictable too during his earlier days, making all his progresses on grass and hard courts. Somehow after his best year 2010, he has regressed a bit and has become more predictable these days in his game. I hope Rafa refound his mojo and shows us his more versatile tennis, like his IW/Miami 2011 or simply his 2008-2010 top form tennis.

I too get annoyed when people try to say that Rafa is only a clay courter. Yes, he has dominated that surface but as we all know he has done well on other surfaces too - but it seems he always has to prove himself again and again, nothing is ever enough it seems. What people conveniently forget is that most of the main ATP tournaments are on hard courts of one sort or another, so the hard court specialists should be running rings around Rafa. So, why is Rafa still ahead with the H2Hs against Federer, Novak and Andy Murray??

Novak will rightfully be the No 1 seed at Roland Garros but it will gall me if all the experts pick him to beat Rafa if they should both get to the final. Some of them have a habit of disrespecting Rafa in my opinion and it makes me mad at times. Anyway, enough of that.

I would love it if Rafa works on his net game because I think that could be an area where he could get a lot of quick, easy points going forward. He is such a good volleyer and is good around the net according to Frew McMillan, who does not flatter without good reason.

So Vamos dear Rafa and enjoy your time in Majorca.

@schatz, 2/4/12 1:23 PM
I'm sure other Rafa fans share the same opinion (sorry, don't have time to read every post here and reply individually).

A large % of Rafa's H2H against Roger is on clay. At one stage their H2H on hardcourts was slightly in favour of Roger or about even. That may have gone Rafa's way since Roger lost the #1 ranking.

Novak has a very strong H2H record against Rafa on hardcourts. So I guess Rafa is still ahead on the strength of clay and grass results. If Novak can maintain his streak, he will overtake Rafa in as little as 3 matches.

If Novak can win 2 of the 3 clay masters event again this year then I think you need to give him the favouritism for RG regardless of Rafa's record there, should they meet in the final. After all, the last 7 matches they have played have all gone Novak's way and they were all FINALS!

I do not mean any disrespect for Rafa's results on clay or HC but we do need to recognise that the current No.1 has found a way of beating Rafa on his best surface just like Rafa did to Fed on grass. A lot of people thought that Novak would have won RG had he won his semi against Roger and played the final against Rafa.

People can think what they want, truth is it didn't happen, ie Nole didn't reach the final to meet Rafa there. Winning a slam means you have to beat seven opponents, losing to one and you're done, so Rafa proved his worth by beating all his seven opponents while Nole couldn't. And that's why I said Rafa has a better chance of winning the FO and Wimbledon, precisely because he has better chance of reaching the final, as he's reached and won six FO finals, and reached five and won two Wimbledon finals.

The same could also be said about Nole, that he's fortunate that Tsonga had taken out Fed at the Wimbledon QF, if not many people also felt that Fed would have taken out Nole at the SF, as Wimbledon is/was still Fed's backyard, though he had to cede a little bit of space to one new co-owner Rafa. See, if you want to apply that logic, apply it consistently to all players.

"No one is unbeatable at any time, anywhere, it's the odds that vary from one player to the other. Murray has to literally play out of his skin to beat Rafa when he is fully fit and firing on all cylinders. Murray has the game to beat anyone but his level is inconsistent"

Yes it is,
So far, since Tokyo he has changed however, quite remarkably in fact.
The reason he had to play `out of his skin` was due to the fact that he was not aggressive/confident enough. I suspect very strongly that a new pattern shall emerge with this more baseline/winners positioned Murray going on. For both Novak and Rafa.

Concerning Fed/Rafa H2H, I don't see why we have to take out clay courts results to compare their H2H. Even if we apply that 33.10.57 % rule on clay/grass/hard, Rafa would still have positive H2H against Fed, and is equal on hard courts and almost equal on grass.

The Rafa/Nole H2H has a clear picture who is better on which surface, Rafa on clay and Nole on hard, Rafa on grass until last year when Nole started catching up on grass.

luckystar, I don't disagree at all with you. But I think there is relevance in the dynamics of Rafa and Roger's history and helps to explain why Rafa is ahead. Fed was the second best clay courter after Rafa, by a long shot, but still a clear 2nd in his prime. I feel that Rafa has gained a lot of confidence from his clay matches and each encounter that they had made him stronger, and Roger more mentally fragile. These sort of matches play a part in a player's psyche as we have witnessed last year as Novak won 4 straight Masters finals against Rafa before the FO.

Novak's recent history against Rafa has some similarities. His strong H2H on hardcourts and more recently on finals of significant tournaments is hurting Rafa. No doubt all eyes will be on both their performances when the Masters series start and in particular the clay court season. It will be interesting to see if Rafa can stem the tide or if Nole makes more inroads to their H2H.

Yep agree. The mental side of the game does play a part in the Fed/Rafa and Rafa/Nole rivalries. Rafa used to have problems with those big flat hitters on the hard courts, however he gets the better of Berdych, Delpo, Sod now as he's a better mover than them and is able to maneuver them around the courts. Nole is a different kettle of fish as he moves equally well as Rafa does, so there's always lots of hard hitting long rallies between the two. Their H2H on the hard courts were almost even prior to Rafa's injury in 2009, 4-3 in Nole's favor -- 2-2 in 2007, 2-1 in 2008. After Rafa's 2009 injury, Nole was 3-0 against Rafa, before Rafa got back 2 wins in 2010, including his USO 2010 win. With improved fitness, Nole now can stay with Rafa for as long as possible and even out rally Rafa. Rafa can no longer think of grinding out a win against Nole on the hard courts.

The way forward for Rafa (against Nole) is to play aggressively, shortening the points with good serving and more forecourt play. Notice that each time Rafa came forward to the net on his own terms, he would win the point. In my opinion, Rafa made a tactical error in the AO final. After winning the first set, he should not revert back to his old way of playing CC forehad to Nole's backhand. Had he played like the third set of USO final last year, or even the fourth set of the AO final and won the second set, he would most likely win the final in four sets. By allowing Nole back into the match, not helped by double faulting to lose the second set (due to his inability to control his nerve, something like his Wimbledon final, first set) he had thrown Nole a life line and ended up losing the match.

I noticed that when Rafa used his DTL forehand and I/O forehand against Nole's forehand in particular, he was able to beat Nole and won the set( similar scenario in the USO final third set and this AO final first and fourth sets). So the key for Rafa to the Nole puzzle lies in his forehand and his aggressive play. Of course serve with a bit more varieties and increased velocity may help too. Let's see how Rafa plays at IW. It will be rather meaningful for Rafa if he can get a win over Nole at IW, remember this is the place where he first faltered against Nole. He has to pick himself up from where he falls!

When Federer was up 4:1 in the SF at the AO, Mats Wilander and Chris Bradnam were boasting about how Roger was finally doing what experts had always said he should do against Rafa, how Roger had a clear plan that he was executing clinically, then Mats concluded that Roger would never be beaten by 'this islander' again.

Then Rafa held his serve to go 2:4, then he broke Federer in the 7th game, then held his serve and they eventually went to a tie-break which Rafa lost to (5), but came back and took the 2nd set 6:2 and eventually Roger's plans didn't work: a) because Rafa stopped going for his backhand so much and b) Roger reverted to his instinctive play and just found Rafa's groundies too much. Plus Rafa's serve was clicking in all the right places.

So Federer lost again for the 18th time.

The problem between Nole and Rafa is not one of match-up. They''ve always had a tussle even when Rafa had a big lead in their h2h. Last year, Rafa's wasn't playing for some reason, then he got uptight about Nole beating him so played against without 'colm'. His performance against Nole at the AO final, though disappointing that he did not take his chances, showed that he's got rid of the nerves and normal service will be resumed.

corr.
Rafa's wasn't playing WELL for some ...............

Roger generally starts quite well with Rafa. But it only takes one or two breath-taking defensive shots from Rafa that turns out to be winners and Roger's believe disappears. I guess it's hard for him to take when the shots he makes usually are winners but not when he plays Rafa. Also, I think Rafa does raise his level of play more than he does against other players when they both meet.

Rafa could have, should have, would have won the AO. Nole was clearly in discomfort at the end of the 4th set and pain in the 5th. The loss of 6 finals in a row must have haunted him.

One thing I know about Rafa, he's one guy who needs competition to sustain his interest. I remember one interview after that AO 2009 triumph over Fed, which Rafa mentioned he felt a sense of emptiness, as if he had accomplished what he set out to accomplish, and that was, to beat Fed, the best player Rafa had ever met, as if there's nothing left for him to conquer. We knew what happened after that and what further height he soared after that in his tennis career. I also suspect Rafa's 'lackluster' 2011 was also due to his not winning his Rafa slam due to injury and also loss of motivation after that. Now, the new Nole poses a new challenge for Rafa, I believe once again Rafa's interest and motivation is ignited. I believe 2012 is the year where we'll see a new Rafa, Rafa version 4, for he knows he longer can grind out a win against guys like Nole and Murray. He needs to upgrade his skills, thinks of new strategies and tactics. Fed once raised the bar for tennis, Rafa raised the bar even higher. Now it's Nole's turn to raise the bar to another level. Rafa and the others need to improve the various aspects of their game in order to have a chance against this Nole.

I think Rafa has been trouble for Roger right from the word go. Even when Roger was at his most confident at their first meeting in Miami in 2004 (hardcourts) he lost to him. After that Roger did start winning against him and I think that their H2H was quite close for a while. However, at some point Rafa just pulled away.

Mats Wilander and Chris Bradnam, are paid a lot of money for coming out with a load of B...S... in my opinion. They were so smug when the match started, both predicting that Roger would win. If it was as easy as they tried to make out then I am sure Roger would have found the formula by now. Mats Wilander runs with the fox and hunts with the hounds - I always thought he admired Rafa but you would not know it the way he talks sometimes. Sorry, you have got me on my hobby horse now. Anyway, I had to mute them quite a few times before the match was over because it irritated me no end when they kept trying to make out that the match was Roger's to lose.

It is understandable that Rafa raises his game against Roger because he knows that he cannot aford to take anything for granted no matter what the H2H is. He also has a lot of respect for Roger. In the same way a lot of players raise their level when they play Rafa - Andy Murray is a good example of this. Even when I used to play tennis I always preferred to play someone better than me and in the end played mostly against men.

Yes, Rafa could have won the AO this year but I guess it was just not meant to be. However, it was a positive loss in my opinion and it was good to see that Rafa was happy with how he had played as I do not think he expected to be in the finals against Novak so soon. He is still a work in progress and Rafa Mark IV still needs a little tweek here and there. How great for us to see that the warrior is back - that will do for me right now.

"Just think, Murray and Fed both have the ability to take down Nole at Wimbledon, while they can't beat Rafa there.."

Really?
I believe he can,
Andy, not Roger ofcourse.
Roger is done beating Rafa in anything but an indoor hardcourt.
The same cannot be said for Murray.
Even last year the non peaking Murray had his chances against Rafa in that Wimbledon semi,
He lacked the spine to follow through on an aggressive gameplan. This year has already demonstrated that will probably not be the case should they meet in the semis again.

Can er please have IW to start and fast forward clock to March 08? Bored of no tennis since 10 days and even more loaded with loads of articles/opinions on what Rafa should do etc going forth. Time to just see it happen :-)

People can say everything about matchups and what Rafa should do etc but to me the reason why Novak is winning and beating Rafa is the below words. He dares to dream, is not vulnerable to failing and makers no bones about the fact that he wants it real bad. Compare that to Rafa last year ' Its impossible to repeat fantastic 2010 No'..Just read the statements and you'll realize ' Belief is the thermostat that regulates what you accomplish in life'. Novak is what he is because hes not scared to fail, he dares to dream, he wants to do well and makes no bones about the fact that he wants to do well. Rafa whenever he had those fantastic 2008 March - May 2009 or March 2010- Dec 2010 got very defensive about keeping upto expectations and to me that lack of self belief didnt allow him to sustain periods of dominance consecutive years. Its almost as if he loves to hunt than be hunted

Speaking at Westminster Hall in London, on Monday night, the World No. 1 said, "I will try to set up my form for Roland Garros first of all, where I want to get the title and go all the way through. Then I'll start thinking about Wimbledon and the Olympics."

Djokovic will be looking to lift his first Roland Garros trophy in June and become the eighth man in tennis history to clinch a career Grand Slam of all four major championship titles.

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The 24-year-old Serbian believes he can win in Paris and then land a gold medal at the Olympic Games tennis event, which will be held at the All England Club, Wimbledon, from 28 July to 5 August.

"Why not both?" Djokovic asked. "I've learnt how to handle my schedule, how to handle myself on and off the court and to prepare for the biggest events. That is going to be the case this year. I have to stay optimistic, believe in what I can do, believe in my abilities and believe that I can win on all surfaces.

"I have proven on numerous occasions that I can really be one of the candidates to win every Grand Slam on every surface. I need to keep that up. Roland Garros is the one to win this year."

I think the commentators are under orders to talk Roger up, especially brainwashing everyone that he is the GOAT because it means money to sell Roger as the GOAT which everyone now knows he IS NOT.

I've never thought Mats liked Rafa, he always sounds so miffed that Rafa makes the likes of him look ordinary. Few years ago, he would spend an entire match talking about how to beat Nadal. During the SF with Roger, Mats said the most stupid thing - that if Roger won they would both be winners because Rafa would have tried everything, but if Roger lost then he was a loser because he wouldn't have tried everything. Such utter nonsense.

^^^ Mats Wilanders behaviour in that semi final was disgraceful.
He simply would not stfu.
He should have been canned for that.
And yes Roger is not the greatest of all time unless you are shallow enough to believe a slam count in isolation of the era it was earned & opponents you faced makes you so.
Still a great player however.

But his attitude and some of his fans, even more so than some of Nadals, give me pause.

sanju, I've explained in my above post, that Rafa is one who needs competition in order for him to stay interested. Noticed after he beat Fed at AO in 2009, he then seemed lacking any more motivation and felt emptiness. It was after his knee injury that same year, losing his FO crown, that plunged him to the rock bottom of his career that he decided to fight hard and came back with even better results in 2010. After achieving his career slam and missing his Rafa slam, it seemed he's needing a new target for him to work on, for he was losing some interest and some passion in tennis. I believe beating the new Nole will be his new target and thus we see him all motivated during the AO this year. Though he fell short, he'll carry on working harder to overcome this new problem (in Nole) and I do believe he'll succeed. His next target may then be Murray, or any of the new kids on the block, that should be enough foe him to stay motivated.

Nole, on the other hand, has not achieved as much as what Rafa has already achieved, so naturally he's more hungry and he's riding on his winning tide right now. Can't compare with Rafa at this stage. Do notice in 2010, Rafa was equally hungry if not more hungry than Nole now, how he twitched his game, in particular his serve, and ended up winning the USO and completed his career slam that year.

It may not be easy for Nole to win the FO this year, as Rafa seemed motivated again, and Rafa does have the game to beat Nole, especially on clay and on grass. He just needs to play aggressively and he can beat anyone, Nole included; that's my take.