novak won in straight sets in australian open

^^^ correct

I hope this puts to rest the 'draw-rigging in Roger's favor' talk.

Unlikely.

Djokovic is surely the player to beat in the desert. It IS kind of weird that Murray always ends up in Nadal's half and Djokovic in Federer's.

I don't envy Ljuby having to play Delpo in his first match!

Ljubicic's going to lose himself those 1000 points, I'm pretty well certain of it.

Pretty soon, Djoko is going to be #2. Even if that happens, I suspect Fed would prefer to be in Djoko's half to Nadal's in any GS .
Poor Fed and Djoko, I think they are stuck with each other.
The match between Delpo and Ljubicic should be interesting.

It is Nole always in Fed's half except at RG that's why we are talking about the draw. Only if Nole ends up in Fed's half at RG more often then we'll stop talking. Anyway in best of three sets match, it doesn't matter whether Nole or Murray is in Fed's half, as both had beaten Fed on hard courts recently: Murray at Toronto and Shanghai and Nole at USO, AO and Dubai. For Rafa too it doesn't matter, as he had beaten both of them recently on the hard courts.

Going forward, if Nole grabs the no.2 position, he'll be in opposite half from Rafa. It'll be interesting to see where Fed would land - in Rafa's or Nole's half and on what surface.

Come on guys,

Just wait for the tournament to begin, I have the feeling that fed will retain his no 2 spot.

Just compare FEd and Djoker's recent best of three matches, last 3 or 4.

Though Fed has lost last two matches this year, I would say in the last meeting fed didn't get that much match practice against very good player(he hardly get any tougher oponent before meeting Djoker) and he was coming from a long break.

Now he can face Berdych in qf.

I doubt if Rafa was hoping to avoid Djokovic at all costs after the thrashing he gave him at the USO final and subsequently beat him at the WTF.

If the pattern of the draw had changed at the first opportunity it would have looked too blatant, but we'll have to see what happens as time goes on.

Sod and Murray get the worst draw, they seem to always draw each other in the QF stage. Whoever wins may have to get pass word no.1 and then no.2 or no.3. So Murray has to potentially get pass no.4, no.1 and then no.2 or 3 to win the title. Fed/Rafa/Nole fans should be happy that Murray doesn't land in their favorite's quarter! In Masters, Murray is a different kind of animal compared to in Slams.

Murray should be happy that he didnt get into Djoker and Nadal's quarter..

Murray in a best of three sets match is different from when he's in a best of five sets match, it depends on which Murray will turn up. I don't think Murray is worried about facing anyone in a Masters hard court event. He'll probably hope to be in Fed's quarter, for it seems Fed is the weakest among the top four at this moment. Sod is red hot at the moment and comparing the top four, Murray seems to have Fed's number in a hard court best of three sets tournament.

luckystar,

Do you remember the last FEd and Murray played in the best of three and who won.

This year Djoker is in superb form and he is the only man who has beaten Fed so far.

Sorry to place this here but I don't know where else to put it,
Nadal has beaten Fed 7-5 (only one set in this sort of exhibitions) in this charity event in Oregon.

Roddick too, again, could meet Djokovic in the QF and Federer in the semi. Its like they fix these 3 first, then arrange the rest of the draw around them!

stu - i was just about to say that!

i hope Djokovic can end his losing streak against Roddick. I cant even remember the last time Novak beat him!

Champ, do remember that Fed beats Murray easily at the WTF because:1) the WTF format suited Fed, as there's a one day off between matches, so Fed could have sufficient rest; 2) its indoor hard court, IW is outdoor and I see Murray seems to do better against Fed on outdoor hard courts, best of three sets format.

Do you remember the Shanghai Masters last year? Beating Nole on one day and followed that up in the next day with a win against Murray seemed a tall mountain to climb for Fed at this stage of his career. Not forgetting the Toronto tournament last year, where he had to deal with Berdych in the QF, Nole in the SF and Murray in the Final. So, whether it's Nole or Murray, it won't be easy for Fed, more so now he still has Berdych to deal with in the QF should they both get there.

cheryl,

It is odd indeed.

I was always assuming that the writers on this website were supposed to not mention any suspicions about draws (just an assumption)... as hints of non-random draws are probably discouraged among journalists and other paid writers.

At any rate, yes it IS odd that, other than at RG, Nole and Roger always seem to be in the same draw going on for SOO many tournaments with only one exception.

Each time another tournament's draw is listed (assuming that every single draw was truly randomly picked) the probability of this pattern to continue consistently goes down by half. By now we are down to a probability of a fraction of one percent.

well, I'm not implying that there is any draw-fixing going on...just that it is statistically improbable (as you said) that this keeps happening tournament after tournament. :)

This draw is like the AO as far as placement of top 8 seeds is concerned in the two halves and is otherwise also identical with reference to their placements in the Quarters except that positions of Roddick and Berdych have been interchanged.
How probable is this?

holdserve - and im sure fed would rather have roddick instead of berdych, and nole would rather have berdych instead of roddick :P

I would like to amend my above statement a bit. Whilst the same 8 people have bben distributed identically in the two halves and in the top half Quarters but Berdych and Roddick have exchanged places in the lower half, there is a difference as Ferrer and Berdych have exchanged seedings 6 and 7. So, probability wise, this placement coming after AO, is more probable than if they had retained the same seedings.

Share everyone's thoughts on the oddity of Djokovic ending up in Fed's half again, surely that would change if Nole is seeded #2 at the French this year.

It will be interesting to see how Rafa performs with top level competition since Australia. I thought his US Open with Nole was quite competitive for 2 and bit sets - it's a bit of a stretch to say Rafa thrashed him.

It wouldn't suprise me at all if Murray did emerge as the tournament winner, but look out for Delpo after wiinig his first tournament recently for over a year this could be the beginning of the comeback charge.

Tricky first rounds for the Djoker here....

Tricky first rounds, really? Why do you say so, Emiliano55?

Delpo is not going to win this tournament. He may not even get past Ljubicic if Ljubicic recovers from the slump.

The ATP draw pattern qualifies for the Guiness Book of World Records. It doesn't matter who is Nos 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5, Rafa always goes with Muzz, and Roger goes with Nole, it's as if they were joined at birth.

So far, the pattern has been the same 13 times in a row except at the French Open. How weird is that?

Nadline, 0.01% :)

stu, suddenly I heard a very loud buzzing noise...r u sure u weren't thinking about Andy....;)

:) everyone's buzzing about Novak these days, deuce. are you sure you're not switching loyalties?

I think that pattern is 1st and 4th are in top half, 2nd and 3rd are in bottom half. It doesn't matter who is 2nd or 3rd, unless Nole or Fed goes to 1st place, they will keep bumping in semis...

It's true that there are a few opponents for Nole that could give him a workout, but at this point in time he seems to be playing excellent tennis and has a good deal of confidence. I expect to see him come through to probably meet Fed in the semis. Beyond that I am not going to predict.

atg, the only thing that is fixed about these draws is that 1 and 2 are on opposite sides. After that, the odd numbers (3, 5, ..) are randomly assigned to any half, and the even numbers following them are assigned to the opposite half. Novak has been in Rogers half even when Roger was ranked 1 or he was ranked 4. Hence, 0.01% was calculated as a probability of 50% over 13 tournaments :).

I think there are a couple of tournaments for which the above is not the case, but of the top of my head, I cannot remember which.

Tricky first rounds, really? Why do you say so, Emiliano55?

stu , 3/9/11 7:22 PM


Golubev and then Hewitt/Gulbis are tricky first rounds.

stu, the ATP Rule book 2011, tells us how the draw is done.
IW is 96 Draw size with 32 seeds. All the 32 seeds get a bye in the first round. The seeds 1 and 2 are fixed at positions 1 and 128. Seeds 3 and 4 are randomly drawn to be in the two halves in positions 33 and 96 i.e. 3 could be in either half and seed 4 in the other half. Seeds 1,2,3, 4 determine the 4 Quarters.
The remaining seeds are bracketted i.e. brackets of 4 each in case of (5 to 8), (9 to 12), (13 to 16) and brackets of 8 each in case of (17 to 24) and (25 to 32). The seeds in each bracket are distributed randomly into the 4 or 8 places meant for them. For instance (5,6,7,8) are randomly distributed in the 4 positions 32,64, 65 and 97. So, 5 and 6 could be in the same half but in different quarters. So,it does not go by even and odd.
For full details:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Corporate/Rulebook.aspx

Thanks for correcting me, holdserve! Did not know that 4 numbers are randomly picked at a time. Apologies for the misinformation, atg.

I guess this means that the odds of Roddick and Novak always ending up in the same quarter are even lower!

Delpo is not ready to challenge for the title yet. If you've watched his recent matches, he can't even beat Verdasco, Roddick and he beats Tipsy in a strange final match. He can't threaten the top guys playing like that. To me the finalists will be Nole and Rafa, regardless of who they meet along the way.

If we are talking about slams only, since 2007, Nole is in Fed's half regardless of his own seeding, in:

AO: 2007-2011
FO : 2009
Wimbledon : 2008-2010
USO : 2008-2010

So, that's 12 out of 17 times, ie 70% of the times Nole is in Fed's half and strangely that remaining 30% usually happens at the FO, ie clay which happens to be Fed's and Murray's least favorite surface.

Going by seeding, Nole wasn't no.3 at the beginning of 2007 until the later part of 2007. He's no.3 since, even though he's been no.2 for half of 2010, he wasn't seeded no.2 at any of the slams. At AO, since 2007 to 2011, he's in the half of no.1,1,1,1,2. At FO, from 2007-2010, he's in the half of no.2,2,2,2. At Wimbledon, from 2007-2010, he's in the half of no. 2,1,2,1(Wimbledon goes by seeding, not by world rankings). At USO, from 2007-2010, he's in the half of no.2,2,1,2.

Draws are random, it's just that it's strange that at the FO, Nole always ends up in the half of the no.2 player and that no.2 player always ends up winning the tournament!

Correction: at AO, it should be no.1,1,2,1,2.

Fed has got a really good testing draw.

Andreev/ Nishikori in R2.
Petzschner/Chela in R3.
Fish/Raonic in R4.
Berdych in QF.

Ricky,

Do you think this is the easiest draw..

It will be interesting to see if the new young hot players can continue to cause upsets. Their arrival has certainly added some spice to the early rounds of future tournaments this season and will keep the big boys on their toes.

I rather agree with others that Delpo is not ready yet for a run at this title but he will be a dangerous opponent in the early rounds.

IMO it is not a given that Nole will make it to the final. He may well be over-confident - we've seen him fall into that trap many times after a successful streak and, in spite of winning the title, dont forget he played a very dodgy SF match in Dubai against Berdych before Birdie retired.

Although I suspect it may be a case of hope triumphing over experience, I still continue to believe Andy Murray will one day get his act together. He certainly has good a chance to go deep and even win IW.

And like all Nadal fans I'm praying he will remain injury free in order to have a chance to defend his bucketload of points and stay at No.1 for the rest of this year.

luckystar,
either ALL of these draws were entirely randomly picked (in terms of whether number 3 is put in the top half or the bottom half of the draw). If you're looking at it the way you did here then you are right: it looks random enough.

But if you want to entertain the possibility that SOME of the tournaments at least decided to put Fed and Djokovic in the same half - no matter which one of them was ranked as number 3 at the time - then suddenly there is such a consistent pattern through several years (except for RG where Murray is not a huge threat to any of the top 3 players)... that it seems odd and a little suspicious.

^^^ I meant:
either ALL of these draws were entirely randomly picked... or some of them were not random.

f you look at the seedings, then as Djokovic hasn't had the same seeding always, the draws could be random. But, what makes the suspicion of rigging get some support is that in this random arrangement, Djoko turns up in Nadal's half in RG( except once) and in Fed's half in other slams. Combined with the allegation that Forstmann, boss of IMG, is supposed to have bet on Federer in 2007 ( IMG is part owner of ATP), fans have cause to be uneasy.

@vij, 3/10/11 6:34 PM

Forstmann placed a bet on Fed, indeed. Article:

IMG's Ted Forstmann Questioned by Anti-Corruption Unit About Federer Bet
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-11/img-s-ted-forstmann-ques tioned-by-anti-corruption-unit-about-federer-bet.html

(Rafa's agent Carlos Costa works for IMG. That's why the writer of the article mentions that IMG represents Rafa also.)

yes luckystar, and do you remember that federer beat ALL top five players one after the other in straight sets, only losing one set to rafa in the final. Bearing in mind, the WTF is only a week's tournament and federer had played back to back tournaments of stockholm and basel - fed hardly had any time off. It was his best showing of winning 5 tournaments since losing to novak in the USO in the semi finals.

Shireling, absolutely right. 7:5 to rafa in one set, 6:3 to fed and sharapova against rafa and azarenko in mixed doubles. but it's all for fun and the players enjoyed themselves.

maxi, its not uncommon for players to play five tournaments during that period after USO. Fed, Nole, Murray, Roddick all played five tournaments after the USO. Sod and Ferrer played even more, six tournaments, including KL. Rafa was supposed to play five too but skipped Paris due to shoulder injury.

As I've mentioned, the WTF format suited Fed as there's one day rest in between matches. Fed's group started first at the WTF hence both he and Murray had one day rest before their semifinal matches whilst Rafa and Nole had to play on consecutive days. Fed himself mentioned he felt comfortable with the WTF format. Compared with Masters, where players have to play on consecutive days from QF onwards, the WTF format allows players more rest between matches, at least before the semifinal stage.

ed251137, 3/10/11 3:59 PM,

It is nice to see you here again. Long time no see!

I agree with you that Nole isn't a lock for the final. I was willing to predict that he should get to the semis, but at that point he may well meet Roddick. He has been a tough opponent for him in the past and is now playing excellent tennis. Ricky predicted that Roddick will beat Nole.

I am also wondering if the group of young guys will cause an upset or a surprise. Delpo is getting his form back and now has the confidence of having won a title. The more he plays, the better he should get. I think he has the ability to get to the fourth round and maybe even the quarterfinals. I don't know that he is ready to win this tournament.

I also hope that Murray will get his act together. Watching his first one or two matches should give us a sense of where he's at now. He has been in the finals here before, so there is no reason to think he can't make a good showing.

Also, I want to second your hope that Rafa stays free of injuries and can defend his points in the clay and grass season! As long as he is healthy, I like his chances.

Well, I don't think Delpotro is good enough now to get past Soderling or Murray.
Djoko will beat Roddick. If Djoko could beat Federer after repeatedly losing to him in majors, we know this is a new Djoko. Roddick will probably fall out of top 10 this year.

"Well, I don't think Delpotro is good enough now to get past Soderling or Murray.
Djoko will beat Roddick. If Djoko could beat Federer after repeatedly losing to him in majors, we know this is a new Djoko. Roddick will probably fall out of top 10 this year."


Can I borrow your rather emphatic crystal ball, that Djokovic WILL beat roddick, and Roddick WILL, fall out of the top 10 this year.

I'll agree that both scenarios are possible, but nothing's a given. Roddick, could fall out of the top 10 temporarily, but he'll get back to top 10 status. All roddick needs to do to pick up points is play the clay tournaments after Miamia which he skipped last year and add in a couple of other tourneys.

I noticed someone mentioned Nadal was rusty at the WTF, which is why roddick was able to push him. Roddick was sick from the effects of mon, and wasn't up to snuff either. If we want to find excuses for every time Nadal or any other player plays badly, then I suppose there will be many that can be found, and we can all do it. Last year at Iw, a lot of excuses came up because Nadal lost to Roddick. I think that it's more believable if the negatives are aired/pointed out before the match not after.

correction: Last year at Iw, a lot of excuses came up because Nadal lost to Roddick."

s/b Miami.

Von, you are obviously a Roddick fan and I sympathise with you because Roddick hasn't won a slam after the lone USO he won in 2003. It must be hard being disappointed again and again. But I admire you for your loyalty.
I agree mono might have hampered Roddick last year. But, you have got to face the fact that he is past his prime. My crystal ball is based on that. Maybe , I could have said, Djoko is likely to beat. So, I amend my statement to read accordingly. I don't really have the mystic powers of Paul, the octopus. But, I stand by my amended statement: Djoko is very likely going to beat Roddick and in all probability, Roddick will fall out of top-10 this year-end.
Let us compare notes at year-end and I will be very surprised if Roddick remains in top-10.
Anyway, all the best.

holdserve: Thanks, for your reply, but you don't have to step on eggshells around me, as I'm very realistic about Roddick's future and winning of slams, et al. I, as a fond fan of his, would like though, to see him win a Wimbledon title, as it's his heart's desire, and the only goal that's unfulfilled in his career. I'm not a greedy fan who wants him to win everything. I've applied that philosophy to my life and I take the good with the bad, as we can't all have everything, we've got to share the wealth, yes?. That said, and being someone who is a bit spiritual, I do believe that good things come to those who wait, and I'm hoping and praying that Roddick will receive the desires of his heart. He's a very decent young man, who's done a lot of good to help the unfortunate, and one who is not greedy, therefore, I'm sure that will not be for naught.

Condsidering that Djokovic is 6 years younger than Roddick and 7 years younger than Fed, then I'll say that beating roddick and/or Fed shouldn't be such a big deal should it? then, why are his fans always complaining about his draws? Added to that, since he has beaten Fed twice this year, one would think that they'd be happy and/olr jumping for joy, to see him in Fed's side of the draw. It just goes to show that some will complain no matter what. Thanks for you kind thoughts.

Nole and fed in same half ??? ...no way...???
So what's new... like old news "Fed has walkabout draw..."
As Ricky once said... I thought that Fed had easy draw... until I saw new one :))... something like that.
But I have said a lot of times what I think about it...
Of course Nole is not locked to finale... nobody is! There are at least 5,6 players capable to raise trophy... But... if Nole keeps his lvl of game from AO and Dubai... only Rafa in finale can stop him. That is also under question mark, because we don't know Rafa's lvl of game now. DC in Belgic wasn't challenge for him.
Everything will be much more clear after two rounds... but still on the other side I don't see someone else than Rafa in finale.
WHAT IS IMPORTANT !!! WE WILL ENJOY IN MANNY BEAUTIFUL MATCHES!!!