11/25/10 2:39 AM | Kelli DeMario
World No. 5 Murray looks to keep his semifinal hopes alive, as he faces World No. 7 David Ferrer at the ATP World Tour Finals. The Scot will attempt to regroup after a disappointing performance on Tuesday.
Fifth seed Andy Murray trails seventh seed David Ferrer 1-3 heading into their clash Thursday evening. The Spaniard has won all three matches on clay, including two Masters 1000 victories this season. The Scot captured his only win at the 2006 Masters Series Canada, 6-2, 7-6(6).
The World No. 5 was far from his best in the last round, where he fell to four-time ATP World Tour Finals champion Roger Federer. Murray was unable to earn a break point en route to a 4-6, 2-6 defeat in 77 minutes.
The 23-year-old is 1-1 entering into his match with Ferrer, after taking out World No. 5 Robin Soderling on day one.
Ferrer finds himself in a must-win situation, as he heads into the match at 0-2. The 28-year-old has been broken seven times through two rounds, having lost to both Federer and Soderling in straight sets.
Prediction: Murray did not play well against Federer, but should raise his level on Thursday. A far more hard-court capable Scot for the win in two close sets.
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alex, what's the disadvantage?
nadline , 11/25/10 3:59 PM
not so much a disadvantage as an advantage (although i suppose you can't have one without other). You may disagree, but it should be an advantage going into a match knowing exactly what you've got to do to qualify. e.g. sod could have won today and still not known whether he'd qualified, whereas muzz would then go out tonight knowing exactly what he had to do, right down to how many games/sets he could afford to lose, which in turn should have some influence his game plan or at least concentration levels (which is certainly a factor when it comes to muzz, even by his own admissions).
They recognise this in other sports, so why not tennis? Or are tennis players, unlike footballers, supposed to be immuned to such psychological influences?
alex , 11/25/10 4:59 PM
So do you think Murray has an advantage over Fed, or am I missing something.
If Murray beats Ferrer in 2 or 3 sets he qualifies anyway, but Ferrer has to beat Murray in 2 for the % of games won to kick in. So Ferrer has to beat Murray in straight sets for Murray not to qualify automatically.
nadline , 11/25/10 5:13 PM
The thing is you can know what you need to do, but it doesn't mean you'll be able to do it, and as it happens, there is no room for Murray to slack tonight because only he has to beat Ferrer to be sure of a place in the SF.
nadline , 11/25/10 5:18 PM
hey nadline, check my calculation on the other thread! It's going to have to be disastersville for muzz not to qualify now.
alex , 11/25/10 5:23 PM
sorry nadline, missed your comment. no I meant it could have given muzz an advantag over sod, had sod won today. but sod's out now, sod's law, i suppose you could call it. sorry.
by my calc, sod cannot qualify now. If muzz wins or loses by less than 6-4, 6-3, muzz goes through. But if ferrer wins by a margin of 6-3, 6-3 or greater, ferrer goes through.
alex , 11/25/10 5:29 PM
so muzz is basically playing to ragain his #4 ranking tonight. would help with oz approaching.
alex , 11/25/10 5:31 PM
Sod's law is fine by me. I thought you were sticking up for Federer against Murray, that threw me.
Yea Murray has to lose badly to Ferrer not to qualify now.
nadline , 11/25/10 5:36 PM
If Djokovic loses to Roddick and Murray beats Ferrer, then Murray will move to No 3, and Djokovic will be No 4 and Sod back to 5.
nadline , 11/25/10 5:48 PM
wow, go muzz! but have to say I'd be sad to see djoker go out. roddick won't win anyway.
alex , 11/25/10 6:03 PM
Actually, Murray will also have to win the SF to be No 3.
nadline , 11/25/10 6:21 PM
things opened nicely for andy, he is sure now for the SF against nadal in the worst case scenario. i would dare to say that he is fave for the SF, no mater who he plays against.
rfzr , 11/25/10 6:50 PM
andy *ought* to be able to win against ferrer....
a lot will depend on roddick/djokovic... isn't it surprising how much trouble djokovic has with roddick on hardcourts? (and they've never played on other surfaces)
here is my silly wordplay but serious question I've posed on another thread:
isn't it looking like we'll have another fedal final finally?
(that's of course hoping that Nadal keeps improving (he will) and his serve and everything else is good enough to reach the final)
chlorostoma , 11/25/10 8:55 PM
They are playing Shakira's Gypsy during the break.
nadline , 11/25/10 9:47 PM
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Glad to see our muzz has the advantage of playing in the evening after he knows what he has to beat from the other match:-) Especially since, as I recollect, he was on the wrong side of the same imbalance last year.
If the ATP are going to persevere with the same mini-league format that other sports - e.g. football - have been using for generations, they ought to have the humility to learn from these other sports how best and most fairly to use them.
If this happened in the World Cup or Champions League there would be massive outcry from the disadvantaged parties.
alex , 11/25/10 2:20 PM