Dont think he will win here too. Hope he meets Fed in the SF though. Cant wait for clay to begin. Hard courts will continue to be a struggle for Nadal.

to win here will be extremely difficult ..... but i refuse to give up my hopes..... iam just glad that he is gonna be back........ tennis without him is like the sky without the moon...... there are many many stars but just one moon!!!!!!!! vamos Rafa!!!!!!

you r forgetting the sun in the sky (Roger!!!)

It will be tough for him to win. Main thing is that he gains confidence and stay injury free before going into his favourite part of the year.

6 qualifiers in Nadal's quarter,he has an easy pass to the quarter specialy that Davy is not doing fine and he might withdarw,and the 2nd top ten player is spanish (Verdasco). since the injury the draws became to be more Nadal friendly,Djoko potential semifinal is never easy.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that this will be the breakthrough since last summer. He came very very close in Doha, but didn't quite do it. If Rafa could defend as many of his points this qtr, he'll have very little pressure fpr the rest of the year, and that will be his opportunity to get back the $1 slot.

Let me say that I agree with the analogy of both atul and intersgd, Roger and Rafa are unique, one is the sun and the other is the moon.

Rafa is the cream on the tennis cake.

Vamos!

rafael has been brillaint at indian wells for the past 3-4 years......hope he plays well here again...he needs the confidence!!!

VAMOS!!!!!!!

Davy will face a difficult job in his first round with Gulbis who is on the run and has gained confidence...Verdasco may as well end up playing Gulbis...Rafa should be fine and most likely will meet Isner, which is again tough, but I think easily manageable for Rafa...Rafa I believe prefers playing with big servers, as he is advataged when exchanging points where they still can not match with him...Rafa will play quarters with either Nando or Gulbis... I tend to think it may be Gulbis, which will be a tough match for Rafa...I recall at Wimby 2008, Gulbis was the only one who took a set from Rafa until his finals with Fed...and Gulbis seems so motivated when paying top ten players...

Nole does not like playing Kohlschreiber (just recall FO 2009) and it will be his toughest obstacle (again depending on Kohl?s current form), but if he is passed that, he will ease pass all other opponents until Cilic...well, that should be the match of the day...

If Blake survives Ferer (which I think he will) he will most likely meet with Karlovic and I expect him to win that one (advantage of playing at home with home crowd..)...Murray, unless hit by bad luck due to his new admirer GoMuzza who seems to be nothing but bad news (and I still think it is atr under a different name!) will easily reach quarters where he will meet with either Tsonga or Sod and should be able to win that one...

I see no obstacle for FedExpress (I watched Bagdatis playing Nole and he sure does not strike me as someone who could resist Fed in any way!) Tipsa may give a hard time to Roddick but still Rodick will prevail...I am curios to see Nalbandian playing and if he is ready he may beat Melzer and make life difficult for Monfils...

So, my predictions in quarters: Rafa vs Gulbis; Nole vs Cilic; Federer vs Rodick and Murray vs Tsonga!!!

I think people are underestimating Rafa at this point. Which is great for him because the majority don't expect him to do well and when he does, it will be very satisfying to see humble pie being eaten in massive quantities! Until then...

My predictions are:

Quarters: Rafa over Gulbis in 3
Nole over Cilic in 3
Federer over Roddick in straights.
Tsonga over Murray in 3

Semis: Nole over Rafa in 3
Tsonga over Fed in 3

Final: Nole over Tsonga in 3 very competetive sets

Tsonga over Federer?
Excuse me but did you watch thier latest match in the AO,maybe you got confused between Federer and Novak? if you gonna mention Montereal i would say forget it..........

Sorry for the mix up, i meant fed over tsonga in 3. Then its fed over nole in 3 (coz of the mix-up i just sed nole over tsonga.)

PS: are u surprised by my tsonga over murray prediction :P

yeah i am actualy, Murray seemed un predictable latley but i wouldnt go as far as predicting him losing against Tsonga that is one bold thing to expect,but he did it once in the AO08 so we will see.am looking for Rafa vs. Nole that one should be good i think there will be validation test for the 2nd rank spot ,as far as Roger concern first match will be the one to tell what is his status but i guess he will make it to the final if he is well enough,at least we have hit for hiati

nadal gets the toughest draw..clearly, burdne of expectations is low oon him righ tnow is that might help. nt sure in what condition davy is in, its amazing how tough the field is now ! imagine juan martin in the mix as well ! wow

For some strange reason I think Cilic may be able to beat Nole this time...it's not that I am more supportive of Cilic, I just think Nole is tired and he always needs time to adjust to the weather conditions...he should be able to do much better in Miami...

Nadal will sleepwalk into the quarters, but if his first real match in more than 2 months comes against Isner, he is in serious trouble. In fact that's a probable loss.

Davydenko still might withdraw, and even if he doesn't he will lose to Gulbis R1. Verdasco should ease through that section to play either Nadal or Isner, and Nadal will hope that Querrey beats Isner in their third-round rematch.

Ricky, as much as I tend to agree with you that Isner is a tough player for Rafa I strongly believe Rafa will beat him. Isner is a big serving machine and also perfectly finds the way around flat hitters like Nole and Rodick, whereas Rafa?s top spin shots may be too difficult for him to deal with...also, I think Isner is exhausted playing three in a row Davis Cup matches and he needs more time to recover...well, I really hope I am right...:) Vamos Rafa!!!

Nata - yeah, i mean there is no guarantee Isner makes it to the fourth round

he could get a good qualifier in R2 and he could get Querrey in R3. And like you said he is tired.

If he gets to the fourth round, though, fatigue wont be a factor. he will be recovered from DC by the time he meets Nadal.

I am not one for predictions, but I don't know why Ricky thinks Isner will beat Rafa, Karlovic has a more potent serve than Isner and Rafa has beaten him three out of three times, also Querry has never beaten Rafa in 3 meetings. Isner will be playing Rafa for the first time, and he doesn't move around the court very easily, so that would be a big disadvantage playing against Rafa. Rafa will have to be on form to beat an on form Gulbis, but I think Rafa has the edge there.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned Karlovic in Murray's half, he is always a problem, although Murray has a 3:0 lead over him, but apart from their last match, there were a lot of tie-breaks.

Vamos!

Yes Ricky, torres, ATR and Muzza have never been seen in the same room at the same time.

I'd pick Isner over Karlovic as having a chance to beat Rafa any day of the week because Isner is the better player right now, is confident and his serve is nearly as potent. That said, I would expect Nadal to beat Isner IF Isner gets past Querrey, which is anything but a lock.

And tj600, I actually agree with your original picks. In a three-setter, I'd tip Tsonga as having a good chance of KOing Fed if they both got that far. We don't know Fed's health status, he's a bit rusty and even if his health is perfect his will to win three-set tourneys ain't what it usterbe. If I were an associate of Davydenko's (wink, wink), I'd lay my money on Fed not winning this one.

SenorPlaid - Isner is 1000 times better than Karlovic and a much bigger threat to Nadal.

carrie - I don't think Isner will beat Nadal. In fact I think there's a good chance Isner won't even play Nadal.

tj600 - Tsonga won't do anything at this tournament.

also carrie, Murray is a HORRIBLE matchup for Karlovic and any other big server. They have almost no chance against him.

Isner was on fire during the AO/January and he still got straight-setted by Murray.

Didn't Tsonga finish Davis Cup with a bit of an injury?

How do you think Mario Ancic will do in this tournament Ricky?

Tsonga beats Murray? I don't think so. Tsonga has become a big girl's blouse.

Nice Rafa article.
http://www.tennischannel.com/news/NewsDetails.aspx?newsid=67 61

Thanks, smr.

"SenorPlaid - Isner is 1000 times better than Karlovic and a much bigger threat to Nadal."

Yeah, that's pretty much what I said, Rick, or are you just signifying?

Word!

I'm not sure Isner could give Nadal any trouble, he's also probably exhausted from Davis Cup on clay and being on court 10 hours in a 3 day span.

thanks ricky for telling abt davy's state... so he is not a threat for nadal. I agree that isner and even querry can be really threatening for rafa but i think he will find a way to win..he has not been losing to such players now , only high quality oppositions like davy muzza nole etc... i think cilic vs rafa is gona take place.....dont know why bt i think nadal will do quite well here ...it will be s confidence booster , hope so! indian wells has always given rafa the momentum and confidence needed to sweep the euro clay season :)

I don't expect Rafa to defend his title, not with this field but would like to see him get a few confident boosting wins on the wayfrom strong players (top 10 hopefully), he does need a good win badly, I admire him for coming back to compete at such a strong masters tournament with so little match play! its going to be really tough. Vamos Rafa!!!!!

afrodite, very good post! nadal wont win even first round dont worry! Why is Nadal not playing in the qualifying rounds, surely he is not good enough to get direct entry? The whole tournament is rigged i think!!

either i've not picked up on the sarcasm, or GoMuzza has completely misunderstood afrodite7's post. that's not what they said at all

Attacking, ups...pardon me, I meant: Mr. GoMuzza keeps on trashing Nadal because he is so upset about his lost at the AO and his surrender to Murray that it will take time and effort from Rafa to heal those wounds...GoMuzza is no Murray fan! He is Rafa's fan and he is his toughest critic, which I must appreciate to some extent, but if Rafa does not defend his title in IW GoMuzza will end up asking for professional help...believe me, he is so obsessed with Rafa and he loves him deep in his heart even more than Carrie does :)) he just has the weird way of showing it...

you are right natashao! i used to like nadal also because i like anyone who can beat federer ok! i am a proper tennis fan because i like anyone who can beat federer!! Otherwise it is not good tennis right??? But like you said that stupid gorilla face nadal what he did this year's AO!! What a person no, because of him only Murray lost in fianl!! I like murray because nobody can not like Muzza plus he strted beating fed! like all PROPER sane tennis fans i hate federer ok but only problem is what the h do i say of him???? So i am just sure that Murray and ndal is better and Will NOT reason about it! That is the best way to hate federer ok! carrie vamosarthritic, nativenew etc taught me that!! they are great at doing this! So once I mak these proper people into murray fans and help them out of the problem they have with Mr.Arthritic, I'll help you also ok natashao, don't wory you wont have to go for proffesional help ok? ill help you become Muzza fan! And once Muzza wins Iw and then wimby!! wow everybody including THE Queen will be his fan!! I've already sent him so many letters asking him to marry me!!! Muzzzaa!

"i am a proper tennis fan because i like anyone who can beat federer!! "

well that's an oxymoron if ever i read one

and also: "stupid gorilla face nadal"

uh huh, ok. coz you're so good looking yourself, right?

"Mr.Arthritic" - a doctor too, i see

rafa seems to be quite confident of his fitness on the long term too..

Nadal commits to playing Queen's ahead of Wimbledon

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/tennis/8562464.stm

ATP Chlallenge full tour:

http://challenge.atpworldtour.com/

Register fast :) Only some 45 minutes less for predicting IW. Have fun, cheers!

hey ......intersgd..... If u know ur sciences right........ sun is considered a star!!!!!!!!!
I cant beleive..... so much hate for Rafa here!!!!!!

Rafa is playing doubles with Marc Lopez.

@deepz,
if you are talking scientifically, a small puny moon is nothing compared to the sun or for that matter any star :) not referring to rafa, just to the point of stars and moons .

'there are many many stars but just one moon'-which is also wrong since there are more moons near to us than star :) Sorry for the lesson in elementary astronomy. Completely off topic and I apologize in advance

deepz, what did you expect? the wolves were just lying in wait for rafa's return, their favorite target; they missed having a player to malign! i'm sure rafa will think about what they say when he plays his matches! don't let it get to you! rafa can't lose what he's never had! this is just the usual discussion from some scared fedfans; that's all! they have always feared rafa and i don't see that changing; they say there's nothing to worry about because rafa is done, but they continue their attack! believe me, it's just fear! personally, as strange as it may seem, i get a kick out reading how they predict things will turn out! only time will tell the real story! we will see!

Totally agree memi, Rafa has far too much going for him so people who are lacking in certain departments like looks, appeal and talent enjoy having a go at him. I have to say though that Rafa is very popular in the UK, all the Sky commentators are always very complimentary about him, and they all think he's got it all.

Ricky what do u mean hes not goin to be doin anythin at this tourney? He's facing some random aussie ive never even heard of in the second round. Unless his ankle injury is still affecting him, i predict him to at least make the quarters againts murray.

Rafa has said in an interview that he intends to play the full clay schedule in 2010 - Monte Carlo, Rome, Barcelona, Madrid and RG.
Dont know whats up with him...I really think he can atleeast withraw from Madrid.

Madrid is a mandatory event, he just can't withdraw without a valid reason, unless you want him to be injured or fringe injury. Why are people asking him to withdraw from Madrid, as if he can do it at will. He should consider withdrawing from Monte Carlo or Barcelona (both non mandatory events) instead. If he were to play all the clay events, then he should be wise enough to conserve his energy for RG, and not go all out to win everything like he did in the past. Given his physical condition now, he should be prioritizing his focus on the more important events and like Fed, learn to let go some of the smaller events. If he continues to try to win everything, he may end up losing more and worse, losing the more important ones. We shall wait and see whether he and his camp have learned anything out of his injuries. I wish him all the best in his tennis career!

he'll want to try to carry on his title defense at MC. he should skip braca. he can't skip madrid but what i think he should do is not go all out in that tourney - but he wouldn't do that - and that's his weakness. that's probably where fed has it right.

rafa has scheduled himself to play all the clay events. he's probably thinking points and his best surface. at least he skipped Dc so there's hope yet that the camp is taking some lessons away.

no big deal skipping Madrid. Fed skipped Shanghai last year, Delpo skipped Cincinati...you can just say fatugue and skip madrid. PLUS madrid surface doesnt resemble RG...therefore its not a good practice for RG like Monte Carlo and Barcelona are. And plus it is very close to RG which is very discomforting. Even if he plays Madrid, hope he loses in the 1st round, go back to mallorca and take some rest.

So you think Rafa will use 'fatigue' as a reason for withdrawing from Madrid? I'm not sure even if fatigue is a good enough reason for withdrawing(not sure Delpo gives fatigue as a reason for withdrawing from Cincy, he may have given some other reasons like heat exhaustion, dehydration etc; Fed can afford to withdraw from Shanghai and not giving any reason as he had played more than 600 matches in his career and is therefore allowed to skip one mandatory Masters 1000 event, and who knows he may have given injury as a reason for not playing in Shanghai as he had complained about pain everywhere in his body after his Davis Cup match against Italy).

Its not easy to skip a mandatory 1000 event without facing any penalty. If it is so easy for Rafa to skip Madrid, he would have done so last year with his knee issues. I dont see him skipping Madrid this year, unless he is really injured; neither will I see him losing in the 1st round at Madrid, unless he has a blister on his foot!! Too bad, being a Spaniard means that he is obliged to attend the Madrid tournament. Next year, the Madrid tournament will be shifted to the time slot occupied by Rome now and Rome will be moved to the existing Madrid time slot. I hope that will be better for Rafa in terms of preparation for the FO.

Rafa will not skip any of the clay court event he is set to play...he will have no reason for it..he will be so dominant on clay that he will simply enjoy playing it...

luckystar:

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/sports/fatigued-del- potro-pulls-out-from-cincinnati-masters_100234317.html

delPotro withdrew citing fatigue, alright. Heat exhauston and dehydration are conditions that arise on a given day and the player bounces back overnight (though they may be out of the tournament by then).

It is easy to use a search engine and confirm these things - you can also remind yourself why Roger Federer withdrew from the Asian swing last Autumn.

But there'll be no predicting why Rafa withdraws from Madrid for the moment. It is a story for now, that's all - though I acknowledge that it is growing by the day. And it would make sense to try and get into a new mindset, one that doesn't rely so heavily on clay-court success as the bedrock for the year as a whole. He is clearly putting his body - and, it now seems to me, his mind - under enormous strain by playing as many clay events as he humanly can.

People moan about the ATP schedule, but there's a reason why things are loaded the way they are. No doubt the ATP never intended for one player to lift all the trohies on clay the way Rafa did for so long. That's exactly why we have two North American TMS events on the trot both this month and again in August. A few different names on the silverware will pique a bit of interest in the sport as a whole and get folks watching.

That is why rivalries have such value. And I am not the only one who feels sad that the past thirteen months have given us just one match-up between our leading rivals, let alone the result it produced.

I'm fine about the 'fatigue' issue concerning Delpo, as he played in the final of Montreal against Murray and the Cincy tournament started the next day. He may have the 'fatigue' issue due to playing two consecutive tournaments (Washington where he won and then Montreal) and also due to the heat, who knows for sure.

Anyway, concerning Rafa and the clay season, its due to his own success on clay that leads to his dilemma now; to lose points by not playing some tournaments and gets himself fully prepared to win FO, or plays every clay tournament and runs the risk of not winning the FO. Only he himself knows better where he is now, both physically and mentally. Note that the discussion started by someone mentioning that he should skip Madrid which I said its not easy skipping a mandatory event. Ideally if Rafa can manage it, like in 2007 where he won three clay titles and reach the final of Hamburg and still wins the FO, then everything will be fine. The problem now is, is he the same player as the 2007 version of himself, or is he now worse than his 2007 self? I hope Rafa is sensible enough to know what he is capable of doing now and does not make the same mistake of pushing himself over the limit again. I really hope to see him winning the French Open and if possible the Wimbledon or the US Open this year. I feel that he has to win the USO asap as time is running out for him, with so many young and upcoming stars who are all very good on the hard courts, and the US fast hard courts are his worst surfaces. One more thing that I hope Rafa can do, ie to win the year end championship at least once. Thereafter, he can relax like Fed and plays every tournament with a more relax attitude, knowing that he had achieved what he needs to achieve.

I hope he wouldn't disappoint those that supported him(I'm one of those). I wish him all the best and hope to see him achieve greatness in his tennis career, and I can then go all out to support my other favorite player: Marin Cilic.

I can't see Rafa pulling out of Madrid, for one thing it's a home tournament for him that is trying to get off the ground so I believe he might feel obliged to play, although I don't think anyone will put pressure on him as they all realise that pushing himself too much in 2008/9 ended up with him unable to play a full 2009 because of injury.

I can see why he would want to play them all, he's match rusty and it would be great preparation for the French. In the same vein, he musn't over do it and not only tire himself out but risk injury while doing it. Reclaiming RG must be his main priority this year and I'm sure he of all people knows preparation is key. Not overdoing it is also important however and if I were him, I'd give Barcelona a miss.

of all the clay court tournaments, Rafa doesnt like playing at Madrid. he made a lot of noise last year about Madrid being poor preparation for FO but nothing was done about it. he still played as he cudnt let his home fans down and busted his knees in the SF match with Djokovic.

My guess is that even if he is planning to skip Madrid, it is too early for him to officially announce it (since it is a mandatory event). he will play the rest of the tournaments and then maybe announce some days before madrid that he cant play due to fatigue/injury etc. (I so hope he withraws from Madrid, doesnt matter if he loses 600 points, he will have tons of points to gain at the FO)