would be good if he can manage it. but i don't think he'll take the title in paris :(

if Federer cared enough for number 1 ranking he wouid've played the tournys in Asia but he gave up on them knowing his record in Paris which never went further than QF in his best days so personaly i think it would be no suprise for him or us his fans if he lost number 1,after losing the points of USO final he shouldve at least played Shangahi but abviously he loves to share every moments with his family and the China trip was too long for them.after USO he hardly the same player he doesnt fight as hard as he used to be and i see him doing no wonders in London, my guess he wont make it so hard on Nadal whome seemed to be lucky these days,he is far from his best but still wining i think his fans desreve that after his injury
enjoy it guys!

Interesting points, tennislover - you know, I posted here during the summer to ask if folks thought that fatherhood might affect Federer's career. In essence, we felt the jury was out on that one. Now, he's only played a few events since the births so it might be a little early to say if he wants it as badly as ever or not. But yeah, life is happening to him off-court, he has surrendered USO and Basel and - well - he's knocking on just a wee bit (in tennis terms). Anyway, he has such respect for Rafa that I suspect he won't really mind giving up No. 1 to him, whether in a few weeks' time or early in the new season. [Though no doubt he'd prefer to make him wait a little!]

Still, wouldn't it be astonishing to see Rafa do it in London, and lift the top spot in a year when it all fell apart for the first time ever at Roland Garros and he didn't even get to play Wimbledon?

VAMOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!

No.1 ranking further away it seems, as Rafa is now one set down and 2-4 second set.
He doesn't seem to be happy playing out there. Perhaps the last few days' matches had taken a toll on him. Nole is really in the zone now, dominating for most part of the match so far.

Rafa was right about not talking about the no 1 ranking at the moment.

lucky my ass. lucky is what fad has had with his draws all the yrs he domonated!

Rafa may need to beef up his strategies for future matches, but one thing he ain't is stupid...he knows he could lose as well as anyone else. Case in point today :(

Rafa's focus is on winning the DC final.He's not thinking about regaining the #1 now.
I doubt if he will 2 RR matches @the WTF.He's not gonna risk injuring himself before DC.
when he couldn't play last year it really hurt him.

by-the-way, it's sad to know that some people can be so delusional:)federer didn't play the Asia tour cause he wanted to rest his back not because he wanted to spend more time with him family....my goodness:)
I believe that federer will end the year as #1 cause Rafa's mind not focus on that now.

Federer will limp to the year-end number 1 ranking, and Nadal will stay number 2.
With Verdasco being his only countryman to qualify for London, Nadal will have only one opponent in the field who believes he will never beat him under any circumstances.

that is right alik but my point was if he DID want the number 1 so bad he wouldve AT LEAST play shangahi because the court there suits his game better than Paris's and he could not play Paris instide,dont you think,right now destinations and fight hours means something for the guy,which is not so hard to accept,
homos:you have to bring up Federer's luck everytime as i told you thousands of times 5 years dominance needs more than pure luck,dont you think,please dont discuss luck not now anyway,as i may add to craig the only way he could win if all his oponent were spanish

i meant flight hours!

I agree with alik that Rafa's focus is on winning the DC for Spain. Given how well Nole played today, even if Rafa was at top form, he would still have to gut it out for, who knows, another 4 hours with Nole and the outcome might still be a loss for Rafa. I think Rafa had learnt a lesson this year during the clay season and he would not want to risk going through that again and missed the DC final. He was devastated about missing the DC final and the TMC last year.

I don't think Rafa is too bothered about the no.1 ranking this year, I think he is realistic about it, unlike his fans and non fans, who talk and worried all day about their favourite players' ranking. I think he should be happy about his result at Paris, a SF is not bad, and he may not have high hopes at London either, he would not let anything distract him from focusing to do well at the DC.

I do not think Rafa is focused right now on being #1 again. I think he wants to stay healthy, work on improving his form and do well in the year end tournaments. I think DC is huge for him. He doesn't want to miss it again.

I wish this talk about Rafa being #1 again would go away. It's not going to happen now. There is plenty of time for that. The most important thing is for Rafa to play with confidence, become better and better and maybe enjoy playing once more. He has had so much heartache and difficulty this year. I just want him to be happy with himself and love what he's doing. The ranking will sort itself out.

I agree. Next year ranking will be fed 1 djoker 2 or del Potro.

While I agree that the ranking will sort itself out (and much as I would love that to be the week after next...), I am concerned about the implication in Native's post (..."maybe enjoy playing once more") that Rafa may not be enjoying his tennis right now.

Perhaps I misinterpret that passage. But if pre-Agassi autobiographies are anything to go by, in times of personal turmoil it is often only ON the court that top players can be happy, forget their cares and concentrate on one thing only: besting the opponent. All the cares of the everyday world fall away and the player loves getting on with it.

Rafa is over his injuries and, while of course I accept that he is not yet back to where he was either physically or psychologically, he's turned in a very consistent set of results since the summer. Let us remember that he is not generally used to biting the silverware in that endearing way of his once June is done.

I have no reason to feel he's not happy out there right now. Sure, a bad loss to Novak's got to hurt, but then he played through match-points in two of his matches this week and that's got to help his confidence, right?

That just proves what I've been saying. Nadal's been winning on the strength of mental toughness and physically out lasting his opponents (ask Almagro). When he runs into someone clearly more talented than him i.e. Djoker, we all saw what happened. This time Djoker was able to hold his nerve ; that's two in a row now. I think their h2h would be much closer if it weren't for the fact that they've played so many clay matches. Congrats to Djoker : first he beat Fed in Switzerland and tomorrow he'll probably beat Monfils in France.

Wow Nadal got owned badly by Djokovic. I mean, Nadal leads the H2H 10-4 or something but that was not even close.

Nadal really needs to do something, I miss the Roger-Rafa era but now it's more like Nole era now.

hm, well. anything is possible. there is still a chance rafa could be #1. if he wins the whole year end tourny and federer goes out early or relatively early. rafa may be prioritizing a win there more than he's letting on. who knows. after all, it's a trophy he hasn't won yet and his chances of winning it aren't likely to get any easier next year.

Since the same posters repeat the same message over and over again, I will post the same message I left before (with some corrections though)....it is amazing that people still do not see genius when it is in front of their faces...but that's human nature...
I have followed your discussions over the past few months and find it very interesting at times...however, I have noticed that chr8 and another guy, Torre, repeat at nauseum that Nole has more talent than Rafa....actually they imply that Rafa has less talent when compared to other top ranked players (DelPo, Roger, Tsonga, etc)....this is just ridiculous ....Rafa is a genius of tennis...yes, a rare phenomenon..... no matter how you look at it...running, fighting and competitiveness are good qualities of Rafa (and of many others sportsmen) but will not...will not...give you six GS in three different surfaces, an olympic gold medal and a dozen or more MS....when you are not even 23 yo.....you need one thing and in huge amounts....talent....huge talent....Nole is a better hard-court player than Rafa but Rafa is the better all around, and most talented, player...no doubt about it....just ask Nole.....please, stop deceiving yourself .....genius means precocity, that is. ...unprecedented (huge) skill at a very early age......Rafa just fits the profile perfectly...

With all the in-fighting on TT between the respective fan groups too many people have lost sight of the fact we have had three outstandingly talented players sharing the honours in the top 3 ranking spots for the past two years.

I am not a tennis historian but I would be surprised if there has ever been a consecutive period when the top three positions have been dominated for so long by the same three men. It is even more incredible when you consider the Federer/Nadal unbroken stretch in the top 2 spots dates back to mid-2005.

Before Murray fans jump down my throat, I know he joined this group for a few brief weeks in the summer but I am talking about what has happened in the past few years - not what might happen from here on.

The endless slanging matches between people posting here has become excessively tedious. We should be grateful tennis is enjoying a wealth of talented players who give us their all year in and year out.

My comments about slanging matches refers to other threads, not this one where a civilised discussion is taking place.

correction: the Federer/Nadal unbroken stretch in the top 2 spots dates back to mid-2005.

Should have read DATED back to 2005

Hello everyone
i am new to this blog but have been following the post for sometime.
b/c there is an on going talk about rafa and his style/tactics i thought i post a news that what also highlighted in rafa official site blog but may have been missed here.
its howevr in french and we may need a proper translator here

Rafael Nadal > Rafa de passage à Lyon
Rafael Nadal est de passage à Lyon aujourd'hui. Le numéro 2 mondial s'est rendu dans les locaux de Babolat, probablement afin de peaufiner les réglages de sa nouvelle raquette, prévue pour après l'Open d'Australie. Rafa repart demain matin sur Paris.

its before he went to paris.tried to translate from google but was not exactly clear. it is something about rafa visiting his raquet sponsers for checking/modifying new raquet. Now its not clear that it is his new raquet he will debut sometime near future or was he promoting the new launch. if its the first then it could be interesting b/c may be he is overall trying to twitch his game a bit but may have delayed it b/c of on going tournaments. Even the paris commetators in his early matches were talking about rafa having slightly changed his serve motion and perhaps he thinking too much and therefore missing many serves. perhaps then unc Toni would have decided to delay change till December brake to allow more practise time to adjust.
Sorry that this comment is long but thought so much talk about rafa style going on. if any one knows french and translate the passage i posted it be nice.

sorry iMaFaN: but I think you've posted same on another thread, and there's no need.
ed253117: agree with your post, too much squabbling, but is always the same. can we not admire Nole while NOT writing Rafa off AND not forgetting Murray!!

iMaFaN: The exact translation is:

'Rafael went to Lyon today to visit the premises of Babolat, probably to fine tune his new racquet scheduled for after the Australian Open. He leaves tomorrow morning for Paris.'

Obviously a new Babolat is planned but not till after AO.

ed at 9:42, nice comments, although I would add Murray to that group ... I think his commitment to the game will take him far.

smr, 11/15/09 3:42 PM
I'm not underestimating Murray at all but it is the sheer length of time (4 years) that Federer and Nadal dominated the top of the league, and the two years Djokovic has been with them as No.3, that intrigues me. Murray who is the same age as Nole didnt join this elite club until autumn 2008. However, I agree with you about his commitment - he is has been a major force for the others to reckon with and will undoubtedly stay amongst the top 5 for a long time to come.

gorafago,

I think you did misinterpret what I was trying to say about Rafa and his enjoyment of tennis. I think it was very difficult for Rafa to have to endure another injury right after coming back from the knee. I thought that made it harder for him. For a while I saw him struggling and there wasn't that spark in his eye. However, I do think he found himself at Shanghai.

There was fire and passion in Rafa when he managed to fight off five match points to beat Almagro and then prevailed over Robredo. For the first time I think he is feeling it again. I guess what I should have said is that I hope he continues to enjoy playing tennis. I do think it's been a wonderful respite for him from the personal family trouble that has been so painful. It is the one place where he can escape the anguish of what is happening to his family. Anyway, you know I love Rafa and am extremely happy to see him finding his form and doing well. I know he is on his way.

ffg,

You should be forewarned that those you mentioned will not ever change or be any different. Be prepared for more of the same. I am determined to ignore those who continue to write off Rafa. Let them say whatever they want. It's not like they have any special knowledge of what will happen or their opinion is based on anything real. They think if they repeat often enought that Rafa is finished, or that he will lose the #2 ranking to Nole, or that he will never win anything, that then it will happen.

Those of us who love Rafa and have admired his game, know how immensely gifted and talented he truly is. But you will never convince some people here of that. Save yourself a lot of grief and wasted effort by letting these comments go, hard as that may be.

See ed's post at 11/15/09 9:42 am. He has given me a lot of great advice regarding avoiding these petty arguments and fights. There is a great deal of wisdom in his words. Rafa isn't going anywhere and those who pretend that it is otherwise, are living in a fool's paradise.

NNY- why when i read your posts do i hear violins whinning?..lol.

and deuce- it's the other thread that is the 'admire djokovic thread' this is the rafa getting to #1 thread. nobody is intentionally forgetting murray.

I didnt think I wrote anything on this thread to say that Fed and Djoker are more talented.

And I also dont think I wrote off Rafa. I just said he is not playing good at the moment and so is Fed. Djoker is the one who is dominating now.

And my preference for Djoker and Fed's game doesn't mean I said they are more talented.

Totally in agreement with you Native and ffg. See how quick the SAME people come aboard to attack you when they don't like what you post. And they accuse us of repeating the same things. There's a word for that.

jean , 11/16/09 2:01 AM
Whoah, ease up Jean. Dont go looking for trouble.
Unless I'm missing something, I dont think anybody is being attacked on this thread.

The Attacker is having a field day gloating and goading (but is largely being ignored) on another thread, and Nole fans are understandably jubilant and enjoying having a few digs at Rafa fans - but that is all.

nadal to end number 1?

dont make me laugh.
if nadal finishes number 1 tennis is officially dead.
no one that gets beaten as badly as nadal has dont deserve to finish in the top 20 let alone number 1.

i hope roger can seal the number 1 because nadal has no right to be number 1. he isnt good enough.
only delusional nadal fangirls think nadal is actually a top 10 player.
he is not even a top 20 player anymore.
the only way the guy will win is if others retire or choke, like ljubicic, lopez, robredo and almugro.

Even if Nadal ends the year as no.1, it'll probably wouldnt last long.

So many experts! If someone could drop a bomb on Nike HQ that would be a good start. Rafa, where are you?

You kidding- Nadal no.1. Never again. As long as Toni uncle is around. These chaps do not diagnose the problem. The fellow is 23 only. He can still learn. Play from baseline and not from 10 feet behind. Serve 60% at 200 kph rather than 75% at 165. Flatten the ball a bit than ballooning it miles above the net. New weapons needed for old foes.

ed not to worry, I'm eased up. It's not just this thread, I was referring to the same old same old rubbish written by the likes of zoey who isn't capable of anything more substantial. Simple as that! Look at her irrational attacks elsewhere and you'll know what I mean. As you said in one of the threads, the in fighting is tedious, right? Well, I happen to agree with you. Unfortunately, you can't get rid of fanatic tards.

Here's a nice interview with Rafa. He even swears! (although I think that the translation is just a little off.)
http://translate.google.com/translate?prev=hp&hl=en&js=y&u=http %3A%2F%2Fwww.magazinedigital.com%2Freportajes%2Flos_reportajes_de_la_s emana%2Freportaje%2Fcnt_id%2F3912%2FpageID%2F1&sl=es&tl=en&history_sta te0=

"NNY..why do i hear violins when i read your post"

ROTFL...Zoey..you are so crazy!

NNY writes very well,leave her alone(lol)...

NNY (lol)you my girl...keep writing !you are brilliant:)they are just so beautiful until they seem like music to my ear:)

yes,smr..totally lost in translation...Rafa did not swear in an interview:)

Jodido(in Spanish) does not mean f*****up!They use(the word) like we would say messed up.

in other Hispanic countries, however,it is used as f*****up.

But,for some reason..
Spain plays down the intensity of the word,so NO Rafa did not say f*****up in an interview(lol)

Maybe I'm jumping the gun here, but I've been looking for an article that lays out exactly what needs to happen at WTF for either Federer to clinch or Nadal to steal the year-end title. Since none has been forthcoming, I'll take care of it here for other readers.

OK, only Federer and Nadal have a shot at being end-of-the-year No. 1. Even if Djokovic won every match and defended his title and Fed and Nadal lost all of theirs, he wouldn't have enough points to overtake Federer.

Each round-robin match is worth 200 points. (There are three of these.) The semi is worth 400 and the final another 500, so there are potentially 1,500 points on the table.

According to ATP, Federer is 945 points ahead, so Nadal has to get at least 1,000 points. A perfect 3-0 round-robin record = 600 points + 400 points for a semi win = 1,000 points. Thatwould be enough, but of course it requires that Federer doesn't win a single match. If Nadal loses just once in round robin, merely making the finals won't be enough, because that would give him only 800 points. Nadal must win it all to have a shot (400 round-robin points + 400 for semi + 500 for win = 1,300). Again, that assumes no Federer victories.

So, no matter what Federer does, Nadal has to at least make the finals to have any chance at ending up No. 1. Anything short of that, and Federer wins.

If Federer wins only one round-robin match, Nadal can lose one round-robin match but then he must win it all for him to be No. 1.

If Federer wins two, Nadal has to win and go undefeated in doing it.

If Federer wins two -- even if he doesn't qualify for the semis, which is possible -- and Nadal loses one in round-robin play -- even if he then wins the title -- Federer ends up No. 1. (In this scenario, Federer would have 10,150 points coming in + 400 at London for 10,550 total. Rafa has 9,205, so if he went 2-1 in round-robin play and won it all he'd have 9,205 + 400 + 400 + 500 = 10,505.

Obviously if Federer makes it to the finals or wins, regardless of what Rafa does, he clinches the title.

So yeah, it's possible, but it's a long shot. To use baseball parlance, the magic (or tragic, depending on your point of view) number is 3. Any combination of three Federer wins or Nadal losses clinches the year-end title.

SP or anyone ... not that I think Fed is going to lose his #1 ranking, does Rafa gain any points for a DC win?

yeah, SP needs to take into account the points that Nadal could get at Davis Cup

Ok SP back to the drawing board:) from the way i figured all rafa needs is 2 wins @WTF or 1 win @WTF and to win 2 live rubbers in DC

You are correct; I forgot about Davis Cup. D'OH!

ATP now has a story about the race to No. 1 on its site, and it didn't include Davis Cup either. (Thanks for the help.)

OK, so with Davis Cup in the mix, here's the deal: Unless I'm reading the points totals wrong at daviscup.com (possible), if Rafa were to win two matches he'd tack only 150 points onto his total. (I assume the 80 points he's already earned have been factored into his 9,205 total.) There are team and individual bonuses, but you need to win 7 or 8 DC matches in a calendar year to snag those, and Rafa won't qualify.

So, assuming that's correct, to update the above:

Rafa still needs to make it to the finals of WTF, period, to have a chance. He may lose one round-robin match and the final and still win the No. 1 ranking by winning two rubbers in the DC final, because he would add 950 points to his total in that scenario. That of course is assuming Federer goes 0-3 in London. A Nadal loss in the semis would mean he could get no more than 750 points between WTF and DC.

If Federer wins a single match, Nadal would have to either go 3-0 in round robin play (and make the finals) AND win both rubbers at DC or just win WTF.

If Fed wins two matches, Nadal would have to win WTF and at least one DC match. (If Nadal went undefeated at WTF and Federer either lost in or didn't advance to the semis with 2 wins, DC matches would be moot in this scenario. Nadal would already have clinched the title.)

If Fed goes 3-0 in round-robin play or somehow advances to the semis at 1-2 and wins his semifinal match, Nadal would have to go undefeated and win WTF AND win at least one DC match. (One loss in round-robin play, even with wins everywhere else, would give Nadal only 850 more points than Federer in this scenario -- not enough.)

If Fed goes to the final of WTF at 2-1, he wins regardless of what Nadal does.

So, to revise, it's less of along shot than I originally outlined above, but it's still a long shot. Nadal has a lot of work to do (he must make the finals of an event he's never made the finals of before) -- and needs a fair amount of help (at least two losses by Federer) -- to win it all.

Rafatards note that I'm not saying that "long shot" is the same as "impossible."

don't call us Names:)

SP: what are the chances of nole being #2 and rafa being #3?

alik,

Thank you for your support and kind words defending me. It is rather bizarre to have someone attack me when I was not speaking directly to that person. It is nice to know that my comments are appreciated and there are people here who will stand by me when I am attacked unfairly for no good reason.

zoey,

I would greatly appreciate it if you would save the sarcastic comments about what I write. When I am speaking to you or about you, then I would welcome your thoughts. Since my comments were not referencing you at all, I have no idea why you decided to lash out.

Do me a favor and ignore what I write if you don't like it. I will do the same for you.

NNY,she was just joking(i think)

Sib, the long and short of it is "slim" and "none" and slim is walking out the door. ;-)

OK, seriously, Djokovic needs about a billion things to break right, way more than Nadal needs to catch Federer (and he needs a lot). The gap between Nadal and Djokovic is 1,295 points, and Djokovic will have no shot at DC points, as Rafa does, so here's the deal:

There are only two possibilities as I see it and both come down to this: Djokovic has to win WTF, period.

If he goes undefeated, he can rack up 1,500 points, but to move ahead of Nadal, Rafa would need to either be shut out at WTF or lose both of his matches (I didn't want to write that he needed to lose both his rubbers, nyuk, nyuk) at DC. A single win at WTF plus one at DC for Rafa clinches No. 2., regardless of what Djokovic does at WTF.

The only other option is Djokovic wins with one loss in round-robin play and Nadal doesn't win a single match the rest of the year. If Djokovic loses once in round robin play and still wins WTF and Nadal gets shut out at WTF, Nadal clinches No. 2 if he wins a single DC match.

So, yeah, not impossible, but ...

What's all this hype about numbers. No.1, 2 or 3 does not guarantee you wins or adulation for that matter. See the game - what difference is there between Djokovic and Nadal. And why. You do not want to analyze the reasons? What happened to Borg to retire prematurely. Nadal has to look into the mirror. If you want to win, acquire new shots, new game plan. Federer does not do it when he faces Nadal, Nadal does not do it even when facing double fisted backhanders. Djokovic is the new star now.

'Djokovic is the new star now' May I ask, for how long? Looks like Del Potro, Murray or even Cilic are all in the queue to be the 'new star'. Djokovic has better make hay while the sun shines, may not be long before another 'new star' takes over!

PS,. At least both Fed and Nadal have occupied the top two spots for five years, something that may be hard to match in the future, or the near future.

thank you, SP :)