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3/11/09 3:27 PM | Ricky Dimon
None of the top players received any apparent breaks from the Indian Wells draw, and Roger Federer will be tested from start to finish in his first tournament since the Australian Open.
Roger Federer is taking the court for the first time since losing to Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open final, but he won't have any time to re-adjust to ATP World Tour action. The Masters Series Indian Wells draw was revealed on Tuesday and Federer's path through the tournament looks dangerous every step of the way.
Federer, who is playing his first event with coach Darren Cahill, could open with up-and-coming Italian Simone Bolelli (if Bolelli can get past Marc Gicquel). Assuming the world No. 2 can pass that test, he might have to face Ivo Karlovic in round three. The 6'10'' Croat has been completely out of form in 2009, but he stunned Federer last summer in the Masters Series Cincinnati quarterfinals.
James Blake, who sent Federer crashing out of the Beijing Olympics, and Fernando Gonzalez are more than capable of pulling off a fourth-round upset. Blake and Gonzalez are two of the game's most up and down players, but when they are enjoying "on" days, they are scary. If Federer and Fernando Verdasco advance to the quarterfinals in this section of the draw, it will result in a blockbuster showdown between two players who have not contested a match in well over a month. Verdasco has been sidelined with a minor foot injury since his captivating run to the Aussie Open semifinals.
Other players to keep an eye on in this section of the draw are Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling, and Richard Gasquet. A foot injury has limited Davydenko to just two tournaments this season and Soderling is dealing with his own physical problems, but both are dangerous on hard courts. Gasquet has been his usual streaky self in 2009, but he reached the semifinals in Dubai (in part because Andy Murray withdrew due to illness).
First-round matches to watch in Federer's section of the draw include Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Julien Benneteau, Feliciano Lopez vs. Michael Llodra, and Lleyton Hewitt vs. Jan Hernych. A Hewitt victory would set up a rematch of a first-round Australian Open encounter with Gonzalez. The Chilean silenced Aussie fans by dispatching Hewitt in five sets.
Prediction: Fourth round - Verdasco over Davydenko and Federer over Blake. Quarterfinals - Federer over Verdasco.
Plenty of players in this section have the talent to beat Federer, but all of the apparent contenders either aren't playing well (Blake, Karlovic) or simply haven't been playing much at all (Davydenko, Verdasco, Gonzalez, Soderling). It could be difficult, but Federer should be able to book a spot in the Indian Wells semis.
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Ricky,
Thanks so much for the article.
Yes, Roger will be severely tested. I just can't wait for the Verdasco-federer match. My gut feeling is that if Verdasco can keep a good head this year, he's going to challenge the big 4 all the time this year. To me, he's the biggest player out of the top 4. He has more power, shots and raw ability than people such as Tsonga, simon or Monofilis.
I have a feeling that Murray and verdasco would do really well on the faster surfaces this year. Let's see what Nadal and Federer come up with. Rafa still seems to not be able to find a way around Murray.
All in all, a very exciting tournament..Tennis fans are in for a treat. I can't wait for Indiana Wells and the rest of the season.
imjimmy , 3/11/09 6:46 PM
i don't think federer path is that dangerous... i think nadal has a tougher race.
Emiliano55 , 3/11/09 6:53 PM
I think its great that the top 4 are back in form now and hopefully all the injuries all sorted. There can be quite a few upsets but only if they play consistantly. Verdasco played well in Aust but can he do it consistantly, thats the bigger question,
Never mind its going to be great for mens tennis, its no longer the big two, now its the big 4 and all the challengers.....lol lol .
Bring it on......
Casper , 3/11/09 7:02 PM
Emiliano - I think they are similar. Nadal and Fed are in quarters with a lot of talented players, but players who often don't make that talent materialize.
Murray and Djoker are in quarters with rock-solid players who are currently playing well, but not necessarily as talented/dangerous as the players in Fed and Nadal's sections.
RickyDimon , 3/11/09 7:51 PM
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Verdasco to win this one if he's anywhere near AO form. He only lost there because he was tired.
chr18 , 3/11/09 6:15 PM