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  • Davis Cup preview part 1 - Tsonga withdrawal hits France hard

    4/10/08 1:58 AM | David Cox
    - The world’s best congregate this weekend for the final prelude to the clay-court season, the Davis Cup quarter-finals. 8 of the top 10 are competing, only Federer and Djokovic are missing as the leading nations slug it out over 3 days for a place in the last 4.

    With all the scheduling debate are fears over player burn-out, the Davis Cup has prompted mixed reactions from some leading players in recent years - the likes of Federer and Murray have at times shunned it in favour of concentrating on the main tour while for Nadal, Djokovic and Davydenko among others, it’s always an integral part of their calendar. Lleyton Hewitt has even based his entire year around the competition in the past and you only had to watch the jubilation of Roddick and Blake after making USA the 2007 champions to see how much winning the competition for the first time, meant to them.

    Speaking yesterday, the top players were all ‘talking the talk.’ Roddick was particularly pumped up at the thought of avenging his dramatic Wimbledon quarter-final exit last summer “I owe Gasquet one from last year, and I look forward to that opportunity,” said the world number 6.

    The blockbuster last 8 match is without a doubt USA versus France. The build-up to the tie started almost as soon as the draw was made and all the leading French players have had on eye consistently on it in the past couple of months especially with the competition for places in their squad. However, the French team have been hit hugely by the withdrawal of Jo-Wilfred Tsonga from the team on Wednesday with a right knee injury. He’s likely to be replaced by Paul-Henri Mathieu for the second singles slot and Australian Open finalists Llodra and Clement will team up in the doubles. There may not be many ranking differences between Tsonga and Mathieu but this really cuts down their chances - Tsonga scored a straight sets win over Mathieu in Indian Wells recently and with the greater firepower, had a much better chance of scoring a crucial upset against Roddick or Blake. Barring injury the US team was always going to pick itself, there’s no other American players near their top 2 at the moment and in doubles the Bryans’ record of 17 wins and 3 losses in the competition speaks for itself. I have to now go for the USA to take this 4-1. Gasquet’s recent form has been indifferent, he was outplayed 6-4, 6-2 by Blake (his opponent on day 1) in Indian Wells and there’ve been little signs he’s in the shape to repeat his Wimbledon success against Roddick on day 3. Unusually, the doubles is far from certain, it’s so often been a banker in the past for USA and the Bryans have just won Miami but Llodra’s having the season of his life so far, making the Australian Open final with Clement and could spring an upset. However, even if they do it may make little difference.

    Like France and Russia, Spain have frightening strength in depth, all their players are in the top 35 and they’ve not even selected world no 16 Carlos Moya ! With the tie being held on bouncy indoor acrylic (similar to the Australian Open surface) Germany have more of a chance but you feel their chances come down to one man - Philipp Kohlschreiber. Germany have been hit hard by Tommy Haas making himself unavailable for the squad (he’s still recovering from the sinus infection which kept him out of Miami and also wants to rest his shoulder ahead of the clay season). Kohlschreiber (who will play the singles with Nicholas Kiefer) has been a revelation in the past year, picking up two titles but beating both Nadal and Ferrer (which he’ll almost certainly have to do for Germany to win) is surely beyond him going by recent form which isn’t great. He was outplayed by Djokovic and then Bolelli in the early rounds of the two masters series and although he took a set off Nadal in Dubai he’s not achieved much since a stunning few weeks in January. Kiefer (now a veteran at 30) hasn’t won a Davis Cup rubber since 2005 and was outplayed by Nadal in Miami so it doesn’t bode well for the Germans. Germany’s only real chance is if they can pick up points against the out of sorts David Ferrer whose rhythm was all over the place against Thomas Johansson in Miami, the usually devastating forehand finding anywhere but the court and Germany will be hoping it continues over the next few days. My prediction though is for Spain to come through 4-1.

    Argentina are my pick to claim the title this year, mainly due to their formidable home record and the way the draw looks likely to unfold. They have without doubt the easiest quarter-final against Sweden and after the 4-1 drubbing Johansson, Soderling and Bjorkman handed out on fast indoor carpet at this stage last year, Argentina will be determined to exact revenge on the clay. The last time they met in the Bueno Aires cauldron that is the Parque Roca stadium, the Swedes were unable to manage a single rubber, one in a sequence of 5-0 thrashings the Argentinians handed out. Jonas Bjorkman was the hero for the Swedes in February’s world group tie against Israel, securing a dramatic 3-2 win. However he looks likely to make way for Robin Soderling alongside Thomas Johansson in the singles. Neither player is known for his patience in long rallies, both men like to go for big shots at the earliest opportunity and as a result neither have really excelled on clay although Soderling has had a few good results in the past, making the Monte Carlo quarters last year. However he will have to play some way above that level to defeat either David Nalbandian or Guillermo Canas in the singles, men for whom grinding results on the dirt is as natural as drinking. Sweden’s best hope of a rubber is in the doubles where Bjorkman ( a 2 time former French Open champion) may be able to conjure up some magic.

    Russia are probably slight favourites to join them in the semis. The Czechs won’t be easy to overcome but the special indoor clay court that has been laid in Moscow will suit the home team more. Not only that but Russia have much greater strength in depth, their squad of 4 are all ranked inside the top 32 and all potential match-winners with experience of 2 straight Davis Cup finals. The Czechs rely hugely on the young shoulders of Tomas Berdych who has a phenomenal Davis Cup record (win-loss: 15-4) and is in-form after making the Miami semis. However ominously for his team, Berdych has really struggled against the top Russian duo in the past. Davydenko holds a 6-0 career record against him and Youzhny also leads 4-1 on the head-to-heads. Regarding the rest of the Czech squad, they have a top class doubles duo who made the US Open final - Pavel Vitzner and Lukas Dlouhy (both in the world’s top 15) and should take that rubber. However, their no 2 is Radek Stepanek and clay is easily his weakest surface - he could be the weak link for them in this tie so I pick Russia to edge it 3-2

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