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  • Semifinal Australian Open Preview: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Rafael Nadal

    1/23/08 8:58 PM | Ricky Dimon
    - Often a tournament to produce a surprise Grand Slam finalist, the Australian Open has yet another chance of doing the same in 2008 with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is looking to pull off another huge upset. The victim this time would be second-seeded and three-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal.

    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will take on favored Rafael Nadal in the first semi-final match of the 2008 Australian Open on Thursday night in Rod Laver Arena. Having already reached both his first Grand Slam quarterfinal and semifinal in Melbourne, the Frenchman seeks to record his fourth headline-making upset of the tournament in order to advance to his first slam final. Nadal, meanwhile, will be trying to make his first-ever final appearance Down Under.

    Other than the incredible third round that delivered several epic matches worthy of living in Australian Open lore, Tsonga has been the story of the tournament. The 22-year-old made a statement from the very beginning of the fortnight, upsetting ninth-seeded Andy Murray in a fourth-set tiebreaker. Tsonga then rolled through each of his next two matches in straights sets before sending friend and compatriot Richard Gasquet home in four sets. The scoreline suggested a close contest, but in reality Tsonga dictated play throughout the proceedings and pretty much dominate the eighth seed. As if that wasn’t enough to prove he belonged with the elite, Tsonga used his overwhelming power to roll over the 14th-seeded and previously on-fire Mikhail Youzhny 7-5, 6-0, 7-6(6) in the quarterfinals.

    While Nadal’s run to the semi-final was expected and therefore not as newsworthy as Tsonga’s breakout, the Spaniard has been no less impressive. In fact Nadal has not dropped a single set in five matches. Granted his draw has not been nearly as tough as Tsonga’s, but he has made quick work of the hands he’s been dealt. After easing past three relatively unheralded foes in the first three rounds, Nadal blew Paul-Henri Mathieu off the court in the fourth round (the Frenchman retired in the second set) and then erased Jarkko Nieminen in straight sets in the quarterfinals.

    Tsonga and Nadal have faced each other once in their careers, and that came less than five months ago at another hard-court Grand Slam, the U.S. Open. Nadal triumphed in the third-round clash 7-6(3), 6-2, 6-1. The Plexicushion surface in Australia should give the Spaniard an even greater advantage, but with the way Tsonga is playing right now, a much tougher match can only be expected.

    While Tsonga is more than adequate from the baseline, he cannot afford to spend the day going toe-to-toe with Nadal in grueling groundstroke slugfests. Although Tsonga’s huge forehand would win him a number of those points, Nadal’s heavy topspin forehand, relentless pressure, and his ability to get almost any ball back would eventually wear down the Frenchman. Instead, Tsonga must follow his big serve and forehand into the net, where he can force the issue and shorten the points. That should help keep Nadal out of a baseline rhythm.

    Expect Nadal to try throwing Tsonga off by giving the underdog various looks when returning serve. Most of the time the Spaniard will step back way behind the baseline in order to give himself more time to read Tsonga’s serve and react. As long as Nadal merely gets the ball back in play with at least some depth, he should have the advantage once a rally begins. At other times, however, he’ll step forward and take his opponent’s serve early and on the rise just to give Tsonga something to think about.

    When it’s all said and done, Tsonga should be able to power his way to at least one set as long as he is serving like he did against Youzhny. Nadal, however, will come through in four sets and advance to his first Australian Open final.

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