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Ricky Dimon

  • Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week

    2012-02-20 05:10:07

    “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.

    The jam-packed February swing continues this week in Memphis, Marseille, and Buenos Aires. None of the top four players is in action as Roger Federer is taking a break following his Rotterdam title, but the fields are impressively strong. Rotterdam runner-up Juan Martin Del Potro headlines the Marseille draw along with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer leads the way in Buenos Aires, and an in-form John Isner is the top seed at the 500-point event in Memphis.

     

    Regions Morgan Keegan Championships

    Where
    : Memphis, Tennessee
    Surface
    : Indoor hard
    Prize money
    : $1,155,000
    Points
    : 500

     

    Top seed: John Isner
    Defending champion
    : Andy Roddick

     

    Draw analysis: Andy Roddick has been snake-bitten in 2012, suffering injury-plagued losses at both the Australian Open and the SAP Open last week in San Jose. The veteran American needs a stroke of good luck in order to defend his Memphis title, and the draw did not give it to him. He is in the same half as Milos Raonic, who lost to Roddick in last year’s final and has already won two titles this season (in Chennai and on Sunday in San Jose). Roddick is also in the same quarter as an in-form Julien Benneteau, who finished runner-up in Sydney and made it to the San Jose semis.

    Isner, the top seed, avoided Raonic but is in a tricky top section of the bracket. The 6'9'' American opens with big-serving Gilles Muller before possible meetings with up-and-coming talents Grigor Dimitrov and Bernard Tomic. Denis Istomin, the San Jose runner-up, also looms large in the first quarter and could meet Tomic in round two. In addition to Isner and Roddick, a whole host of other Americans will be looking to make noise in Memphis. Among them are veterans James Blake, Robby Ginepri, and Bobby Reynolds in addition to rising stars Ryan Harrison and Jack Sock.

     

    First-round upset alert: (Q) Bobby Reynolds over Radek Stepanek. One of the oldest players on tour at 33 years old, Stepanek is still going strong and he registers at 28th in the world. However, he is just 4-4 for the season and he has lost in the first round of his last two events (Australian Open and San Jose). Reynolds' 2012 campaign is highlighted by successful qualification in Sydney, where he stunned Isner en route to the semis. The 29-year-old American is 0-2 lifetime against Stepanek at the ATP level, but both matches were competitive and he is playing with confidence having already come through qualifying this week.

     

    Hot: John Isner, Milos Raonic, Julien Benneteau, Bernard Tomic, Denis Istomin, Jesse Levine

     

    Cold: Andy Roddick, Radek Stepanek, Gilles Muller, Jurgen Melzer, James Blake, Sam Querrey, Ernests Gulbis, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Xavier Malisse

     

    Semifinal predictions: John Isner over Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic over Julien Benneteau

     

    Final: Isner over Raonic

     

    Open 13

     

    Where: Marseille, France
    Surface
    : Indoor hard
    Prize money
    : 512,750 Euros
    Points
    : 250

     

    Top seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
    2011 champion
    : Robin Soderling (not playing)

     

    Draw analysis: Tsonga and Del Potro are clearly the class of the field; unfortunately for them, they are both in the top half of the draw. Thus what should probably be the title match will instead be a blockbuster semifinal between the world No. 6 and the world No. 10. Of course, both players will have no cakewalk making it that far in what is an extremely strong 250-point tournament. Del Potro, the Rotterdam runner-up, has an especially tough path that is likely to include Nikolay Davydenko and Richard Gasquet. Tsonga should have less trouble in a weaker top section, although Jarkko Nieminen has been in stellar form.

    The top two seeds in the bottom half—Mardy Fish and Janko Tipsarevic—have been struggling to find the range in 2012. Fish was abysmal in Australia, but he should still be feeling good about a huge Davis Cup singles win over Stanislas Wawrinka. The American, making a rare February appearance in Europe, could run into either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Michael Llodra in the quarters. Tipsarevic is in the weakest part of the bracket, so the Serb has a good chance of turning things around and reaching at least the semifinals.

     

    First-round upset alert: Lukas Rosol over (6) Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dolgopolov began 2012 in fine form, reaching the Sydney final. However, he got blown out by Andy Murray then battled through two five-set matches in Melbourne before losing to Tomic in another five-setter. The Ukrainian dropped his opener last week in Rotterdam to Lukasz Kubot. This Lukas should not be as tough, but you never know. The 6'5'' Czech has a big game that can work well on indoor hard courts. There really should not be any big first-round surprises since the top four seeds get byes to round two, but Rosol at least has a chance.

     

    Hot: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Jarkko Nieminen, Go Soeda

     

    Cold: Ivan Ljubicic, Arnaud Clement

     

    Semifinal predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Juan Martin Del Potro and Janko Tipsarevic over Mardy Fish

     

    Final: Tsonga over Tipsarevic

     

    Copa Claro

     

    Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
    Surface: Clay
    Prize money
    : $484,100
    Points
    : 250

     

    Top seed: David Ferrer
    Defending champion
    : Nicolas Almagro

     

    Draw analysis: The "Golden Swing" may not be exactly golden, but the fields have been surprisingly strong this year and things are no different in Buenos Aires. In fact, this will be one of the best 250-point fields of the year, especially among clay-court tournaments. Five Top 20 players are in action; Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Gilles Simon, Kei Nishikori, and Juan Monaco. Former Top 10 players Wawrinka and Fernando Verdasco are also in action, while clay-court specialist Juan Ignacio Chela rounds out the crop of seeded players. The Copa Claro also features veterans Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Nalbandian, and soon-to-be retired Fernando Gonzalez.

    It could be bad news for Simon and Monaco, because the second quarter of the draw is by far the toughest. Monaco opens with Sao Paulo runner-up Filippo Volandri and could get Nalbandian in round two. Simon will likely face an in-form Carlos Berlocq in the second round. The top two seeds (Ferrer and Almagro) have friendlier paths. Ferrer should cruise into the quarters before colliding with either Chela or Gonzalez. Almagro, fresh off another Brasil Open title, should have it in auto-pilot before a potential quarterfinal matchup against Verdasco. In the third section of the bracket, Nishikori faces a blockbuster opener with Ferrero.

     

    First-round upset alert: Albert Ramos over (8) Juan Ignacio Chela. Ramos made a name for himself in 2011 and he already has one quarterfinal and one semifinal finish already this year. Not surprisingly, the Spaniard’s semifinal run came in his first clay-court tournament of the season (last week in Sao Paulo, where he upset Verdasco before losing to Almagro). Chela is a solid 5-3 for his 2012 campaign, but the 32-year-old lost to Carlos Belocq in the Vina del Mar semis and he could be in line for an early exit in Buenos Aires due to a difficult draw.

     

    Hot: David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Kei Nishikori, Juan Monaco, Albert Ramos, Carlos Berlocq

     

    Cold: Gilles Simon, Stanislas Wawrinka, Fernando Verdasco, Fernando Gonzalez, Albert Montanes, Horacio Zeballos

     

    Semifinal predictions: David Ferrer over David Nalbandian and Nicolas Almagro over Juan Carlos Ferrero

     

    Final: Ferrer over Almagro

     

    Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

     

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Comments

I think Memphis -Raonic will lose to Isner- feel you are spot on the finals there; also Ferrer and Almagro-but I think Almagro might actually win 2nd title there and upset Ferrer; with Marseille I think Del Potro will make the final and actually win the tournament- not sure of his opponent possibly you are right on Tipsarevic; I also think Tomic will lose early (possibly first round) and most likely against Istomin

MAGICJOHNSON76 , 2/20/12 10:11 AM


Hey Ricky-http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/02/8/Memphis-Monday -Dodig-Edges-Tomic-In-Opener.aspx; I knew this would occur as it has the speculation of Tomic ranking improvement versus what he will end up in 2012; hence I knew he was going to lose this notwithstanding the matchpoint drama; there was another reason I knew it would happen but I can't go into that; however, I will present my views on your predictions as I have got certain logics as to how these matches involve a lot of speculation and it is moreso in modern times

MAGICJOHNSON76 , 2/20/12 11:13 PM


yep not too surprised

I think the Marseille court may be too fast for Del Potro. Tsonga likes it fast and is playing in France. I don't see Ferrer losing any match anytime soon.

RickyDimon , 2/21/12 2:37 AM


Ricky, so you're one who believes Delpo isn't as good on a fast court than on a slower court? I happen to agree with you. Watching his Rotterdam final match, I was thinking he did better on clay at the DC final. Slower surface gives him more time to get to the ball, and movement is something he'll always lose out to against the top four and other quick moving players. Delpo was overhitting his shots in that Rotterdam final but he was more precise during that DC final match. I feel that Delpo can do better on clay than on the hard courts, against the top players I mean. I think we can expect him to do better on clay this year than his last year and may be a threat to the top players on clay.

luckystar , 2/21/12 5:29 AM


yes, completely agree. Same reason why Isner is very good on clay. Gives him time to set up for the ball, not to mention get to balls he normally wouldn't get to.

People just assume that Isner and Delpo would be good on grass because they have big games. Contrary to popular belief, they are both awful on grass.

Delpo could/should be the third or fourth favorite at Roland Garros if he is 100 percent and in form at the time.

RickyDimon , 2/21/12 5:41 AM


Yes agree about Delpo/Isner on grass. Same with Raonic too on grass. On grass movement is important and it's more difficult to master the movement on grass as it's more slippery, that may be why we don't see many players being good on grass. Moreover, not many players grow up playing on grass these days, making it more difficult for them to master the movement on grass.

luckystar , 2/21/12 6:08 AM


lucky,

Yes, Delpo played some of his best tennis in that DC final match. It's rare that anyone can take it to Rafa on clay, but Delpo just gave it his all. I was also one who thought that Delpo would be better on a fast court, but I was wrong.

Ricky's comment about Isner on clay reminded me again just how well he played against Fed in that DC first round match. I thought that Isner's groundstrokes were incredibly effective on the slower surface. I am becoming more and more impressed with Isner as a complete player.

Nativenewyorker , 2/21/12 10:52 AM


NNY, both Delpo and Isner are tall players and their movements can't match those of the top four. It's on slower surfaces that they have better chances against the top players as they can have more time to set up their shots on slower surfaces. Also the ball bounces higher on the clay courts, but as they're so tall, the ball may just bounce right into their strike zone. Contrast that to the low bouncing grass, they've to bend their bodies to scoop up the low bouncing balls. I think Fed's slices work better against Isner on grass and on fast indoor hard courts, on the slower high bouncing clay, his slices are less effective.

luckystar , 2/21/12 2:00 PM


Lots of fun tennis this week ... shame we couldn't see some of the early matches re: Tomic vs Dodig, Young vs Dimitrov in Memphis.
Good win for Kei against JCF and I would like to see the big serve of Olivetti in Marseilles.
@MAGIC I can't imagine Ferru losing to Nico :)

smr , 2/21/12 3:18 PM


I still don't understand how WTA outer-court matches are being streamed and ATP matches on center court are being blacked out.

RickyDimon , 2/21/12 5:15 PM


Yep Ricky, looks like another evening of watching live scores :(

smr , 2/22/12 1:50 AM


lucky,

Of course, what you say makes perfect sense. I could see that Isner seemed to have all the time in the world to set up his groundstrokes in his DC match with Fed. As you said, the higher bounce on the clay court helped Isner get to many of Fed's shots and neutralize their effectiveness.

I did think that Delpo showed some prowess on grass at last year's Wimbledon. He gave Rafa a great match in the fourth round. He does have trouble with those low bouncing balls, but I thought his movement on this surface was much improved. Wasn't Rafa using his slice against Delpo in that match?

I have been hoping to see some of the tennis, but right now the tennis channel is showing tennis matches with great African American players to celebrate black athletes this month. I am going to check back and see if they televise any of these matches.

I see that Ricky said the ATP matches are being blacked out. Lovely.

Nativenewyorker , 2/22/12 5:35 AM


NNY, both Delpo and Raonic suffered bad falls at Wimbledon last year. Both injured their hips, though Raonic's was more serious and needed surgery, while Delpo's caused him to do badly at the NA hard court swing. Do remember Delpo lost in the second round to Fed, at Cincy or Canada, and I did mention then that Delpo was just back from injury. They may have the big game for grass, but both lack the required movement on grass to make them truly formidable opponents on grass.

What I saw at Wimbledon 2011 was a Rafa who's lacking in confidence, he looked shaky to me, playing against big serving players like Muller and Delpo. In fact Rafa wasn't playing well during the early rounds of all the slams last year, come to think of it. It's because of his naturally competitive spirit that led him to overcome his opponents even when he's not playing well.

luckystar , 2/22/12 6:20 AM


^^^I agree. Rafa was playing below his standard last year and had to perform some Houdini acts in the early rounds against players who would normally not take a game off him. He came back from 1-5 down in the 3rd set at RG against Andujar, saving 8 set points to win the set and the match in a tie-break.

Even though by his standards Rafa was not playing well, he was able to fend these players off time and time again.

nadline , 2/22/12 9:09 AM


lucky,

You make a good point. I should have remembered Delpo's fall and the reinjuring of his hip. It is true that Rafa was not at his best, but I felt that he played much better even in the first week of Wimbledon than he did in the first week of RG. I don't think he was at his best level and that was pretty much a problem for him throughout last year. I thought that Rafa served better at Wimbledon than he had since the beginning of the year.

I cannot remember seeing Rafa playing so poorly at RG as he did in the first week. That was the time when I really began to worry that he was burning out. He didn't have the fire and the passion at all. I think he just somehow willed his way into winning those early round matches.

The turning point was when Rafa faced Sod in the quarterfinals at RG. I remember thinking, if this doesn't wake him up nothing will. I even made it a point to watch the 2010 RG final and it reminded me just how great Rafa was playing at that time. I hoped with all my heart that seeing Sod on the other side of the net would somehow get him to raise his level. And it did. Those last three matches were more like Rafa.

I think Rafa has already far exceeded my expectations at the AO. If he can continue this way and work out the kinks in his game, then I think we are in for some great things this year.

Nativenewyorker , 2/22/12 10:12 AM


http://www.eurosport.fr/tennis/atp-tour/2012/djokovic-a-monte-carlo_st o3172478/flashnews.shtml

Djokovic is playing MC.........hmm!!

mani4Tennis , 2/29/12 2:20 AM


So? A good test for both Nole and Rafa, I expect Rafa to win of course! Rafa is definitely playing better now than last year, and we can't even compare his clay season last year vs his DC matches on clay last year!

luckystar , 2/29/12 4:56 PM


Yes yes ..i am also expecting rafa to win but if he loss then it would be setback for him in coming clay season.

mani4Tennis , 2/29/12 5:03 PM


Too early to predict anything, there's still some hard court tennis to be played. Nole doesn't look that invincible out there in Dubai and this is hard court, his favorite surface. Didn't get to see how Berdych plays, he may be the spoiler here causing the upset. I do remember Berdych was playing very well against Nole last year here at Dubai before he retired with some shoulder injury. At the other half of the draw, Tsonga is also playing well and I expect him to beat Delpo this time. Who knows, we may be seeing a Berdych/Tsonga final here in Dubai.

Nole may not have a clean sweep of the hard court events this time, and I expect him not to do as well as last year on clay. We shall see how things unfold.

luckystar , 2/29/12 6:12 PM


Nole playing MC?! Hmmm...tactical move on Rafa...trying to win MC and destroy Rafa's confidence for the comming clay court season and FO...not gonna happen, Nole...Rafa will be ready for it...

natashao , 3/1/12 8:19 PM


Not going to happen. Last year, even losing two clay masters finals to Nole, and Rafa not playing well at all at the FO, Rafa still beats Sod, Murray and then Fed to win his no.sixth FO title. Rafa is playing better this year right from the start of 2012, and Nole not playing as well as his 2011; Rafa is not going to let Nole beat him on clay again. Being beaten twice by Nole on clay was more than enough for Rafa, just like he was beaten twice only by Fed on clay!

I was watching Rafa/Nole 2008 Hamburg SF while waiting for the Dubai matches to start yesterday. Nole was playing very well back then on clay, and I noticed Rafa was playing CC forehands and backhands most of the time during the match, no wonder he got into troubles and had to take three sets to beat Nole. In fact I find his clay court game has improved since then, he's a lot more aggressive during the 2010 clay season, especially at MC that year. The way Rafa played during last year's DC matches was an encouraging sign of things to come this clay season.

luckystar , 3/2/12 2:11 AM


'In fact I find his clay court game has improved since then...'

I was referring to Rafa here, of course! Other than Rafa's 2008 FO performance, I have to count Rafa's 2010 clay court season among his best performances on clay, before last year's DC matches came along. Watching Rafa's clay matches of 2008 and before, I understand now why Nole felt he had control of his FO 2006 QF match against Rafa, because Rafa was really counterpunching back then, giving his opponents the feeling that the results of the matches were on their rackets. I'm glad Rafa has since become more aggressive on clay, especially after his 2009 injury. I hope to see the Rafa playing like during his DC matches last year appearing during the coming tournaments.

luckystar , 3/2/12 2:22 AM


lucky,

I am glad that you see the difference in Rafa's clay game back when he was younger, as opposed to now. When I do get a chance to check out Rafa's earlier clay matches, I do notice how he was much more of a defensive player waiting for his opponent to make a mistake. He didn't have the net game and volleying skills that he does now.

It is nice to see Rafa playing more aggressive tennis. You can really appreciate it when you look back at matches from five years ago. He has really worked to develop into an all-court player. The aggressive game was necessary to help keep Rafa's body healthy and not punish his knees and also because he had become too predictable and opponents were figuring out how to beat him. Also, there are guys who can hang with him from the baseline, as Nole demonstrated last year.

I will be very happy to see Rafa back on court again!

Nativenewyorker , 3/2/12 10:07 AM



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