Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam

  2012-02-12 15:44:29
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
  

   

  After a break for Davis Cup, the streak of weeks with three ATP tournaments on their schedules continues in Rotterdam, San Jose, and Sao Paulo. Last year the headliner was Andy Murray, who was looking to right the ship after a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final. This time around it’s Roger Federer hoping to bounce back from dropping singles and doubles rubbers in Switzerland’s first-round loss to the United States. Federer headlines a strong field in Rotterdam as the No. 1 seed.

   

  ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
  
  Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
  Surface: Indoor hard
  Prize money: 1,207,500 Euros
  Points: 500

   

  Top seed: Roger Federer
  2011 champion: Robin Soderling (not playing)

   

  Draw analysis: Federer does not have the easiest draw at the ABN AMRO, but he is clearly the class of the field with Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal on the sidelines. The third-ranked Swiss opens with Nicolas Mahut before likely running into Mikhail Youzhny. Federer’s nearest seed and potential quarterfinalist is Alexandr Dolgopolov. A deep second quarter of the bracket features Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Alex Bogomolov, and Robin Haase.

   

  Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro headline a slightly weaker bottom half of the draw. Both of them, however, could face early-round tests; Del Potro definitely will with an opener against Michael Llodra and Berdych is on course to meet Marcos Baghdatis in round two. Things should open up nicely for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds if they can navigate those waters.

   

  First-round upset alert: Philipp Kohlscheiber over (8) Marcel Granollers. This would not be much of an upset, as Granollers is ranked only seven spots ahead of Kohlschreiber as of Sunday (27^th to 34^th). In fact, Kohlschreiber should be favored by the oddsmakers because is in fine form this season, already with nine match wins. The German reached the Auckland semis and the fourth round of the Australian Open. If Kohlschreiber has recovered from the illness that forced him out of Davis Cup, he will like his chances against Granollers on a fast hard court.

   

  Hot: Tomas Berdych, Feliciano Lopez, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jarkko Nieminen, Philipp Kohlschreiber

   

  Cold: Viktor Troicki, Lukasz Kubot, Nikolay Davydenko, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Thiemo De Bakker, Ivan Ljubicic

   

  Semifinal predictions: Roger Federer over Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdyc h over Juan Martin Del Potro

   

  Final: Federer over Berdych

   

  SAP Open
  

   

  Where: San Jose, California
  Surface: Indoor hard
  Prize money: $531,000
  Points: 250

   

  Top seed: Gael Monfils
  Defending champion: Milos Raonic

   

  Draw analysis: Milos Raonic returns to San Jose as the defending champion, but the draw did not do him any favors. The big-serving Canadian is in the same half as top-seeded Gael Monfils instead of struggling No. 2 seed Andy Roddick. Raonic also finds himself in the toughest quarter of the bracket that includes Kevin Anderson, Grigor Dimitrov, and Matthew Ebden. The good news for Raonic is that he cannot face any of those guys until the quarterfinals.

   

  Roddick has a friendlier path at the bottom of the draw. The veteran’s nearest seed is fellow American Donald Young, who has been playing well but should not be a threat to Roddick on an indoor hard court. Among the contenders in the third section are Radek Stepanek, Julien Benneteau, and Gilles Muller. Based on their draws, it would not be a surprise to see familiar foes Roddick and Stepanek face each other again in the semis.

   

  First-round upset alert: Ryan Harrison over (8) Olivier Rochus. Rochus finished runner-up in Auckland last month and has been playing better than Harrison of late. Harrison, though, plays his best tennis on American hard courts. His preference is to play outdoors, but he won’t mind this fast surface against a defensive player like Rochus. For whatever it’s worth, you can bet Harrison will be playing inspired tennis after witnessing the United States’ shocking 3-0 Davis Cup win at Switzerland.

   

  Hot: Gael Monfils, Radek Stepanek, Julien Benneteau, Matthew Ebden

   

  Cold: Andy Roddick, Robby Ginepri, Xavier Malisse, Steve Darcis, Sam Querrey

   

  Semifinal predictions: Milos Raonic over Gael Monfils and Radek Stepanek over Andy Roddick

   

  Final: Raonic over Stepanek

   

  Brasil Open
  

   

  Where: Sao Paulo, Brazil
  Surface: Clay
  Prize money: $475,300
  Points: 250

   

  Top seed: Nicolas Almagro
  Defending champion: Nicolas Almagro

   

  Draw analysis: Did Gilles Simon get confused when looked at this week on the 2012 ATP schedule and signed up for Sao Paulo? Five of the eight seeded players hail from Spain, then there’s one Brazilian and one Argentine. And then there’s the Frenchman. Granted, although Simon does his best work on hard courts, he is actually quite capable on clay. In fact, Simon won a 500-point title last year in Hamburg over Nicolas Almagro in the final. The Brasil Open’s No. 2 seed will likely have a brutal opener in the form of David Nalbandian, but his draw opens up if he can get past the veteran.

   

  Almagro, the top seed and two-time champion, is in the weakest quarter of the draw at the top. He should be able to cruise into the semifinals following a first-round bye. The most interesting section features Fernando Verdasco, Fernando Gonzalez, Frederico Gil, and Santiago Giraldo. Gonzalez is in the midst of the final few weeks of his career. Gil, who advanced two rounds at the Australian Open, could get Verdasco in the second round.

   

  First-round upset alert: Filippo Volandri over (7) Albert Montanes. Volandri and Montanes have squared off eight times in their careers. Not surprisingly, every single meeting has come on clay. Volandri leads the series 3-2 at the ATP level and 2-1 on the Challenger circuit. The Italian is 0-4 so far this season, but three of his matches were played on hard courts and he is nothing more than hopeless on any surface other than clay. With Montanes also in dreadful form, this is a winnable match for Volandri.

   

  Hot: Nicolas Almagro, Carlos Berlocq, Frederico Gil

   

  Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Thomaz Bellucci, Albert Montanes, Victor Hanescu, Fernando Gonzalez, Leonardo Mayer, Pere Riba

   

  Semifinal predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Frederico Gil and Gilles Simon over Thomaz Bellucci

   

  Final: Almagro over Simon

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

   

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