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2012-01-30 19:22:01
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal get a much-needed break (likely for a whole month) after an absolutely epic Australian Open final that lasted five hours and 53 minutes. Heck, even the fans probably need a break after that one.
But they don’t get one…. A jam-packed February slate begins this week with tournaments in Zagreb, Montpellier, and Vina del Mar. Tomas Berdych is the only Top 10 player in action, but Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, and Richard Gasquet are also taking the court in Montpellier. Clay-court specialists begin one of their favorite months of the season in Vina del Mar, while Ivan Dodig is defending a surprise title in Zagreb.
PBZ Zagreb Indoors
Where: Zagreb, Croatia
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 398,250 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Ivan Ljubicic
Defending champion: Ivan Dodig
Draw analysis: The Zagreb title is wide open, just as it was last year when Dodig thrilled the crowd with a surprise run to his first ATP winner’s trophy. Croatia boasts three of the eight seeds this time, including the defending champ (No. 4) plus top-seeded Ivan Ljubicic and big-serving Ivo Karlovic (No. 8). Ljubicic and Karlovic are on a collision course for the semifinals in a tough top half of the draw, but Philipp Petzschner, Mikhail Youzhny, and/or Andreas Seppi could derail their progress.
Alex Bogomolov and Marcos Baghdatis, both of whom are in decent form to begin 2012, have to be favored to reach the semis in a weaker bottom section. Bogomolov will likely have to get past Lukas Lacko in round two and Robin Haase in the quarterfinals. Baghdatis should not have any trouble until a potential quarterfinal clash against Dodig.
First-round upset alert: Sergiy Stakhovsky over (3) Mikhail Youzhny. The long-time doubles partners (although not this week) have the misfortune of playing each other in a first-round match for the third time in their careers. Youzhny is a clear favorite on paper, but both players have been struggling of late so it could go either way. The Russian leads their series 2-1 after alternating wins in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Youzhny scored a 6-3, 7-6(7) victory last fall in St. Petersburg, but he won’t have home-court advantage this time around.
Hot: Alex Bogomolov, Lukas Lacko
Cold: Ivan Ljubicic, Mikhail Youzhny, Karol Beck, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Potito Starace
Semifinal predictions: Mikhail Youzhny over Philipp Petzschner and Marcos Baghdatis over Alex Bogomolov
Final: Baghdatis over Youzhny
Open Sud de France
Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Prize money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Tomas Berdych
Defending champion: Gael Monfils
Draw analysis: The Open Sud de France was last held in Lyon in 2010. It was taken off the schedule last year and has since moved to Montpellier, where Monfils—the 2010 champion—is back to defend his title. Monfils won’t have an easy time of it in a bottom half with three other very strong seeds (Gilles Simon, Feliciano Lopez, and Jarkko Nieminen). Simon is struggling at the moment, but Lopez reached the fourth round of the Australian Open and Nieminen recently captured the Sydney title.
Joining a trio of Frenchman (Monfils, Simon, and Richard Gasquet) with a first-round bye is No. 1 seed Tomas Berdych. The seventh-ranked Czech is in a soft top quarter of the bracket and will likely cruise into the semis following his quarterfinal run in Melbourne. If he does, his opponent will come from a deep second section that includes Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Olivier Rochus, and Nikolay Davydenko. Gasquet faces a potential opener against Davydenko.
First-round upset alert: Olivier Rochus over (7) Philipp Kohlschreiber. This a rematch of an Auckland semifinal clash from earlier this season. Rochus put up an admirable fight against the former Auckland champion and prevailed 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-4. The Belgian may be able to do it again because he is actually a stellar performer on indoor hards. Rochus has three career ATP runner-up finishes indoors, including in Stockholm in 2009. Overall, the head-to-head series between Rochus and Kohlschreiber is tied up at two apiece.
Hot: Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, Feliciano Lopez, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Jarkko Nieminen, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, Olivier Rochus
Cold: Gilles Simon, Nikolay Davydenko, Paul-Henri Mathieu
Semifinal predictions: Tomas Berdych over Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils over Feliciano Lopez
Final: Monfils over Berdych
VTR Open
Where: Vina del Mar, Chile
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $398,250
Points: 250
Top seed: Juan Monaco
2011 champion: Tommy Robredo (not playing)
Draw analysis: This is the time of year when second-tier clay-court players get to rack up ranking points on the South American and Central American dirt. Two of the top contenders this week are in the bottom half of the Vina del Mar draw. No. 2 seed Juan Ignacio Chela is in a brutal lower quarter along with Filippo Volandri, Horacio Zeballos, and Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a wild card both literally and figuratively in this event. If he is close to 100 percent (and that’s a big “if”), he could do some damage. No. 3 seed Thomaz Bellucci should have far less trouble in his section.
Top-seeded Juan Monaco also has a friendlier path at the top of the bracket, where his nearest competitors are Igor Andreev and Albert Montanes. Both Andreev and Montanes are slumping, so Monaco should eventually find himself in the semifinals. No. 6 seed Santiago is playing the best tennis of anyone in the second section, but unseeded Frederico Gil is coming off a surprise third-round appearance in Melbourne and now he is back on his surface of choice.
First-round upset alert: Daniel Gimeno-Traver over (7) Carlos Berlocq. No disrespect to Berlocq, but anytime he is seed it’s an upset opportunity. The Argentine is in respectable form right now, as he has two match victories this season (two more than Gimeno-Traver). But one came via retirement and he got a nice draw for the other one, beating Jesse Huta Galung in round one of the Australian Open. Berlocq has won both previous meetings with the Spaniard (both on clay), but one went to a third-set tiebreaker.
Hot: Juan Ignacio Chela, Santiago Giraldo, Frederico Gil
Cold: Albert Montanes, Filippo Volandri, Fernando Gonzalez, Nicolas Massu, Leonardo Mayer, Horacio Zeballos
Semifinal predictions: Santiago Giraldo over Juan Monaco and Thomaz Bellucci over Juan Ignacio Chela
Final: Bellucci over Giraldo
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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yep, shocking result for the 2011 runner-up
RickyDimon , 2/1/12 3:59 AM
Go Freddy Gil!
cherylmurray , 2/1/12 7:25 PM
Gil FTW
RickyDimon , 2/1/12 9:26 PM
Think you're being a little harsh on Berlocq. He has won 17 straight matches on clay with his win yesterday over Junquiera. Admitted most of them on ch-level but it's still a very respectable result.
derstatic , 2/3/12 7:30 AM
3 of 6 finalists. Could have been 4 but Baghdatis did not get the job done in the semis.
RickyDimon , 2/4/12 9:34 PM
Monaco,Berdych & Youzhny for the win!!
mani4Tennis , 2/4/12 10:06 PM
Berdych!...could be THE year for him!
scoot , 2/6/12 4:24 AM
Congrats to the winners. I only get to watch the Berdych/Monfils final. Both played reasonably well. I like this Berdych, gamewise, he seems to be maturing as a player, with consistently good results coming his way. I still maintain that Berdych, Tsonga and Delpo will be the three guys to challenge the top four this year. They may not win a slam but may cause some upsets along the way. Tsonga and Berydch have each won a small event at the start of this year, it bode well for them for a start to the new season. Delpo may be starting his NA hard court swing pretty soon, let's see whether he'll win some titles there. It's time for them to step it up and challenge the top four, before it's too late to do so.
luckystar , 2/6/12 4:45 AM
Lacko was a bit lack lustre in the final against Youzhny.
Don't like Youzhny's beard, it makes him look very KGB.
nadline , 2/6/12 9:19 AM
scoot, someone, think it was mani4tennis, told Andy fans he was "old" so that must make Berdych positively geriatric and his chances similar.
nadline, agree, not a good look :( Think it makes him look like an ancient Russian revolutionary/poet, but a wondrous back hand :) in that match anyway.
deuce , 2/6/12 10:38 AM
I don't particularly like any of the players with beards/face fuzz etc - don't really know why they do it unless is has something to do with the "samson" effect :)
I think Berdych has a spring in his step and is out to impress the new model girlfriend. He has been playing great lately.
Mind you, IMO Lucy Safarova was too nice for him anyway.
schatz , 2/6/12 3:14 PM
could be good years for Berdych, Youzhny, and Pico
but i feel Berdych has already peaked. He is not going to a win a Grand Slam, so i feel like its impossible to have a year better than he had in 2010.
RickyDimon , 2/6/12 4:07 PM
Mind you, IMO Lucy Safarova was too nice for him anyway.
schatz , 2/6/12 3:14 PM
But you don't know them, so how do you know that Lucy was too nice for Tomas?
nadline , 2/7/12 5:04 PM
way too nice, yes
RickyDimon , 2/7/12 5:38 PM
Just female intuition Nadline. He has never been someone I have warmed to mainly because of his behaviour at times.
schatz , 2/8/12 1:45 PM
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Giraldo lost first round, mate
MAGICJOHNSON76 , 2/1/12 1:57 AM