never thought i'd see the day when Cheryl's boy Frederico Gil was a prominent part of a Grand Slam semifinal. But let's be honest, it's the truth!

I don't even remember who Frederico Gil is...I guess I wasn't paying enough attention at this AO...shame on me...

man up and make some picks, natashao!

Nadal 5-7 7-6 6-4 7-6

Murray 6-3 5-7 7-6 6-7 6-4

and then Murray to beat Nadal in the final for his first slam, score in the final:

Murray: 5-7 6-4 6-4 7-6

Actually scrap that ^^^^^

Federer to beat Nadal 7-5 7-6 6-2

Murray to beat djokovic 6-3 5-7 7-6 6-7 6-4

Fed to beat Murray in the final.

haha

If Rafa is to have any chance of winning this tournament - he needs Murray to play the game of his life against Novak - and then be too exhausted for the final. As much as I hate to say it, Rafa simply has next to no chance against Novak in the final.

I'm not going to comment on the Fedal match because it is impossible for me to be objective, I'm ashamed to say.

With the Nolandy match, I'm a little bit undecided because Nole is not playing as well as he did last year IMO, he had to dig deep to fend off Ferrerand Hewitt gave him a bit of grief , had Ferrer taken the 2nd set, anything could have happened. From what I saw of Murray last night, his serve has got to be better if he wants to
beat Nole. Nole's defence is impregnable as far as I can see, but that's not a problem for Murray and he is getting better at attacking. Not sure who will win.

I'll stick my neck out and say Murray in 4 - 75 64 67 76.

Whatever happens, I hope I have a smile on my face this time tomorrow.

lebsta2, between the top 4, it's all mental. If Rafa can regain some confidence, anything can happen. I am a huge Djoko fan, but let's not forget who Rafael Nadal is and what he's won.

Let's hope it will all come to pass Nadline and that there will be a lot of people with big smiles on their faces this time tomorrow including our Rafa.

rafa in 4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-2
Still making my mind up about scores in other one, but Andy in 5.

Nadal in 4, 6-4 3-6 7-6 7-5
Murray in 5 7-5 3-6 6-4 2-6 6-4

rafa in 4, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5
novak in 4, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4

BTW: the editors' picks on tennis.com are 3 for Federer and 1 (Tignor) for Nadal ... and 3 for Djocovic and 1 (not Tignor) for Murray.

^^^ alex and deuce it is not that I don't believe Murray could win this Friday, nor that I wouldn't want him too... I'd love furthermore for him to lift a Grand Slam trophee,,, with a bit of help from Lendl the lanky don't smile much tall one.

It's just making a likely (to me) pick.

chlorostoma, it's fine :) Obviously I'm biased ( oh surely not ;) but I do think Andy's got a chance so hey, what the heck!

Here's my view:

Federer - Nadal:

Another grandslam battle between these two legends is on the line. The numbers are in Nadal's favor. He wins most of the time against Federer, he usually wins a best of five format against Federer en he owns a 4-1 outdoor hardcourt head-2-head. Conditions should favor Nadal as well... so Federer is fighting against the inevitable. However he pushed Nadal hard in the first 3 sets in their RG final and he creamded him during the WTF. But this isn't RG, nor the WTF. There are no secrets between them on the court. I believe Federer will finally deliver against Nadal in a slam, beating the spanish bull in 4 sets: 6-2 7-6 5-7 6-4

Djokovic - Murray:

Two friends who played the final last year, which Djokovic won with ease. This year they clash in the semis and it promises to be quite a match. Two of the best double-handed backhands will be pitched against each other. Both can rally all day long and it promises to be a gruelling match. Murray hasn't been tested at all during this AO, sweeping all in front of him. Djokovic received two small tests and raised his level when it matters. This will come down to their services. Their returns belong to the best in game, so this will probably be full of breaks. However Djokovic is willing to go for winners and is serving better than Murray. This will be close, but expect Djokovic to claim the big points in this game: 7-5 4-6 6-4 7-6

great analysis from Bonker. I think one of these matches will yield a surprise. I have a feeling that we are projecting 2011 Djokovic onto 2012 Djokovic. Murray in 4: 7-5 3-6 7-5 6-3. (with lots and lots of breaks of serves from the 2 best returners in tennis).

As for Federer,he's being asked to do something he hasn't done in nearly 5 years - beat Nadal in a best of 5 Slam match. The only way he has a chance is to storm out and seize the first set. Even then he can't win in more than 4.

Nadal will generally win in close sets -especially tiebreaks - because in these high pressure situations he can rely on a more robust (and compact) style of play (yes of course he can play very elegant, aggressive tennis if he wants, but in tense moments, you can count on him to play it safe and in the long run, win).
Federer can never outgrind Nadal, so to win he has to basically win every point with a winer or forcing shot. That's too much to ask of a man in the twilight of his career.

Rafa's match with Berdych was the best thing that could have happened to him. The way he played the last two sets will stand him in good stead for whatever he faces with Federer. Federer needs to serve well to have any chance. Rafa won't be nervous and a confident Rafa is bad news foe anyone.

I cana't believe that the AO have served a Fedal yet again. The USO is the only place where this has never happened. Maybe this year.

Vamos Rafa

Nadal is superstitious. He lost the last two years on Aussie day during the fireworks and all the celebrations. He will be muy nervous that it will happen again. If he wins the rivalry is dead. Fed to win though 6/4 6/3 6/3. Could care less about the next match at this point. Come back to life Fed!

Rafa in 4: 7-6 3-6 7-5 6-4

Nole in 4: 6-4 2-6 7-6 6-3

1) can't compare this Nadal to the FO Nadal last year. At the FO last year, he was whining and sulking the whole tournament, yet he beat Fed in four! This AO, he's playing with a more positive attitude, eager to win his matches. His level now is higher than his FO last year, but Fed's is not higher than his own FO level.

2) Nole was only serving at 50+ % first serve, I don't see him serving better than Murray, at least not this tournament. Their match should be close if the right two players turn up to play. Nole seems able to play the big points better, something Nadal did against Murray in their three slam semis. If Murray can step it up during these big points then he has a chance, if not Nole will take it like he does against Ferrer. (Ferrer didn't play the big points well and so he ended up losing).

good stuff, Bonker

It's hard for me to make a pick when it's Rafa, because my heart can override my head. I am never right, but here goes.

Rafa in five: 3-6, 6-4, 7-6, 4-6, 7-5

Nole in five: 6-4, 4-6, 7-6, 5-7, 7-6

Haha all the expert picks have a 3rd set TB for the fedal match!

Federer in 5 7-5 3-6 5-7 7-6(7) 8-6
Djokovic in 4 5-7 6-4 7-6(3) 6-2

And then Federer to beat Djokovic for #17.

^^ great observation stu

Rafa in three: 7-6, 6-3, 6-4
Andy in four : 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4

Watching Djoker's matches, I am not 100% certain that he will beat Nadal sud they meet in the finals

I was going to say the same thing..Rafa has lost the last 2 Australia day matches in qtrs - 2010, 2011. Not sure if it will paly on his mind.

Some astrology sites have picked Roger Fed to wn , again not that what they predict has to come true ..

^^You cannot be serious.

Nadal in 4, Nole in 4.

Haven't seen any Federer or Murray matches this AO, so its hard to judge. I'd like Fed to have a crack at #17, so I'll say Fed in 4 (7-5 7-6 3-6 6-4).
As for tomorrow, I'm slightly biased. Djokovic in 4 tight sets (7-6 3-6 7-5 6-3).

sanju - that's about as strong as my Frederico Gil argument!

Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-3
Federer 7-6, 7-5, 6-2

Nadal in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-3

Djokovic in 3: 6-3, 7-6, 6-0

I am saying nothing.........

sanju, this is not the QF but the SF; not when he sees Fed across the net. Australia Day or not, it won't affect Rafa. I think the Nole/Murray match may end up more exciting than the Fedal match.

@Luckystar: I know this isn't the Nadal of RG '11. But it was a close contest the first three sets, something Federer wasn't able to do in a slam for a long while against Nadal. The conditions here favor Nadal, being an slow outside hardcourt. If it's going to be windy, Nadal's advantage is even greater. But Nadal can't glide here, the way he does at RG. So his retrieval will be slighty less effective.

But this still comes down to the same formula. Nadal will try to wear Federer and his backhand down. Luring Federer into long rallies and physically and mentally wear him down, as Nadal knows that he's got the upperhand as the match progresses.

Federer is winning about 80% of his first servicepoints during this tournament en he needs to keep that up. Federer needs a high first service %, to score easy points during his service games. Federer also needs to return aggressive, to keep Nadal on the backfoot during the rallies. But Federer is looking good and I think he's due for a win over Nadal. It's a huge match for Federer. Winning means he can still topple Nadal in a slam and compete for the prizes.

As for Djokovic - Murray, Djokovic plays the bigger points better than Murray. He willing to take them, instead of waiting for the error. That will be the major difference between them. And Murray hasn't faced a test all tournament and now he's up against Djokovic. Murray going to get pushed for the first time this tournament and I don't know how Murray will respond mentally.

Forget the men's matches, the women's semis have been a pleasure to watch. Amazing drama, but I'll need earplugs for the final.

No 3 vs No 4 for womans final..hmm..any chance same can happen in mens?

Yes womens final will be a shriek fest..each one out shrieking the other..

samprallica,

I watched them, too! Good stuff! This is coming from someone who doesn't watch much of the women's matches these days.

Oh and I agree about the earplugs!

There will be a new number one in women's tennis after the finals, I believe.

sanju, you can hardly take any analogy from the women situation since we have the No1 there who lost in the quarters and who is completely undeserved No1 with no GS title under her belt...she also wasn't even considered a favorite for this AO so this unfolding is no surprise at all... Nole on the other hand is well deserved No and declared clear favorite for this AO....the No4 in men tennis and the No4 in women tennis are also not comparable......so I see no point in comparing these... :-)

Some nice insights: http://straightsets.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/25/previewing-federer-vs -nadal/

Almost starting.... hopefully both players deliver tonight :-)

natashao..not comparing ..just asking..haha..just 4 fun

we should all comment on 1 article..right now its on above article as also

http://www.tennistalk.com/en/previews/20120125/Federer_and_Nad al_in_Aussie_Open_dream_semifinal

Please choose where we all should go to n comment live :-)..difficult to toggle between 2

sanju (and everyone) - live comments during match on the match preview page that sanju has linked above

this article for posting predictions

"On Thursday night a red hot Roger Federer will face a sore-kneed Rafael Nadal - not for the first time at Melbourne Park"

this announcement of the semi final match between these two on AO site is just pathetic...

and THAT is why the call us "EXPERTS"

third-set tiebreaker!!!!!!!!!!!

lol Ricky. You'd better be hoping that it goes in Fed's favor...

Interesting to see what happens tomorrow. I really hope Nole plays a great match and wins - but Lendled Murray is a tough proposition and I wouldn't be too surprised with a loss. Nadal looked super sprightly today at times, and he might have just enough to beat Nole if they meet again.

@NNY, I do hope its Azarenka, nothing against Sharapova, but a confident Vika and Kvitova could take the womens game forward.

never in doubt. there's a reason why we're "experts"

#gloating

lol Ricky and so u should, but some of us were lulled by the bookies into thinking it would take Rafa 5 sets...;)

a whole host of people had Nadal in 4, but only 3 had Nadal losing the first set then coming back to win in 4. Hence, the current leaders in the clubhouse heading into the second semifinal are:

willmw101, deuce, and imjimmy

Ricky, will rapidly be at end of queue going into clubhouse, cos I'm still going with Andy...fool, fool!

you know, deuce, it's not like Muzz has no shot. He CAN beat Nole...it's simply a matter of whether he can do so in a big moment.

Roger was indeed fighting the inevitable.... At least I almost got the total amount of games right... I predicted they would play 43 games, but it was 44 instead. Only got the third set correct in terms of score :(

Fedal rarely goes to 5 sets unless Rafa is stretching towards his potential like few can - to break new ground against Roger, e.g. Miami 2004 (8 years ago!) or Wimbledon ?07 and ?08 or dead-tired AO ?09. Otherwise one or the other takes it in 4 (RG ?08 being the exception in 3).

cheryl, true, but think it's a bit too early for "Ivan Effect"!

The rivalry is officially dead! How can it be a rivalry if one guy last beat the other in a major in 2007? Over-hyped is this matchup now. Maybe the next rivalry will be Djoker and Mandy. I'll start calling him Andy if he ever wins a major.

chr18, at last you've come round to thinking rationally. If you can't beat them, join them. The next thing you'll be coming out as a Rafan.

Do you now agree that there is no GOAT, or if there is, it's not Federer?

chr18 - it's still a rivalry because all of their matches (other than French Open) are good, even tho Nadal wins them all

nadline - you have to look at the whole body of work. Just cause he can't beat Nadal doesn't mean you can discount 16 grand slams.

Something telling me that Murray will get to the first GS title with straight wins from now on. For me he had the most impressive play, and I don't see any mental blocks anymore... he disappointed so many times it does no matter to him...

Agree with Ricky re looking at Roger's whole career - and I'm as dyed in the wool as any Rafan anywhere! Otoh, Rafa making 4 slam finals in a row over the last 9 months is pretty darn impressive for someone who is, er, struggling with his confidence? And began his career as a clay court player. In everyone's mind but his that is.

atg..Murray may well win..but straight sets win over both Nole and Rafa..cmon thats unrealistic at this stage in a slam against the opponents he has.

Andy: 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2.

It is deplorable to see comments of certain Fed fans on other sites like bleacher

They sayng Federer choked and tanked the match, huh..oh yeah..even making allegations that Rafa was juiced for the match just coz he got sum impossible gets...even commenting that how did Rafa get so ready and fit after the marathon qtr against Berdy..zero credit to Rafa for what he did..I mean how delusional can you even get? There are certain fans of Roger who he will be ashamed of even having as fans, they are that disgustng but I am sure they are disgusting as people in the first place and the disgust spreads to every part of their life.

And I frankly think people like Bodo should even stop being tennis writers/analysts..they suck that badly and are biased horribly..God you cant be so blinded and not objective when writing an article..His racquet reaction is all about Feds missed opportunities and again zero credit to Rafa for what he did.

Few people really need to take their crazy obsessions for Fed a bit too lightly , its just a game

Ricky, I'm not discounting 16 gs titles. This is historic between chr18 and I. But I do make the point that that is all that separates Rafa and Roger, the number of GS that Roger has compared to Rafa, but considering Roger is 5 yrs older and has been on the tour for 3 years longer, it's to be expected.

sanju,

That's why I don't even bother to read bleacher report. Same goes for Bodo. I got tired of his Fed worshipping a long time ago. He is way too biased in Fed's favor to be objective in his blogs.

I am so happy about this victory and don't want to read any negativity. Sore losers! Since when does Fed give a semifinal slam match away? That's a joke! The Almightly Fed? Give me a break!

Fed said it straight out in his press conference - he wanted Rafa in the semis to avenge that 2009 final loss. Well, he got him! I am happy that Rafa got the win again on hard court, showing his versatility and skill on this surface. I am happy that he was the one who ended Fed's winning streak.

After all of the truly hateful, hideous comments Rafa fans have had to read recently from some trolls who are no longer here, I am thrilled to see Rafa get this win.

We all know what we would have been reading if Fed won the match. Trashing of Rafa all over the place, triumphing Fed's win as a rebirth.

I want to savor this win for at least a day or until the final. No matter what, Rafa played some great tennis. He managed to return from the baseline or inside the baseline, hit some great dtl forehands that were amazing, much improved cc backhand that can get better and moving into the court aggressively to close out points at net.

At this time a week ago we Rafa fans were lamenting the absence of these aspects of Rafa's game. I never expected him to play this kind of tennis this early in the year at the AO.

Rafa will continue to work on his game and get better. So nice to see him mixing it up against Fed, so as to be less predictable. He was thinking out there and his mind was working. Great stuff from Rafa!

I will reiterate my belief that there is no GOAT! That's why I won't even get into the debate anymore. You can be the greatest in your era. That's how I see it.

bleacher report is the biggest joke in the history of the world

NNY - no tiebreaker in the 5th set!

bleacher report is no joke anymore... they need serious help...

NNY..forget a week before..remember 3 weeks before on Friday wen Rafa lost to Monfils in semis of Doha..I am sure him reaching the finals is a much better result than what he himself as well as we expected..irrespective of result in finals

congrats to chrolostoma, NNY, natashao, and atul1985 again for winning the SF expert picks. Cheryl also tied with them. They were all a combined one set off between the two matches while correctly predicting both winners.

whoever of that group wants to do the final, email me one paragraph of analysis and exact score. ricky.dimon@tennistalk.com

Ricky,

Now you tell me? Yes, of course you are right about no fifth set tiebreak. So I actually get to do an expert pick for the first time on this site? I can't believe it!

if you email it to me, yes!!!

have sent it to u Ricky, Thanks

I sent the e-mail hours ago, but forgot to tell Ricky!

congrats NNY,natashao, chloro and atul :D all rafans :D

vamosrafa,

I just got lucky finally. You have been there, too.

Any predictions on the final?

There are some comments to the effect that there is absolutely no way that Rafa can win against Nole. If Rafa thought like that, then he would just go home.

NNY i didn't get it

send to ricky.dimon@tennistalk.com or ridimon@gmail.com

final expert picks - http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20120128/Australian_Open _final_expert_picks:_Djokovic_vs._Nadal

I was out all day and didn't get your reply. Yes, I did forget to put the little dot between your first and last name.

Oh well, I lost my one chance.

Thanks, anyway. I just wish I had been on here so I could have made sure to get it in.

send it now!