Haase over Roddick in 5? You disappoint me Ricky.

Oh um, have done a challenge bracket...and from quarters have identical results with Ricky....:)

If Nole has to beat Murray in five, then I like Rafa's chance against Nole in the final. We may have a Murray/Rafa or Tsonga/Rafa final though. Early days, not a sure thing that two of the top fours will meet in the final.

sensible picks I must say, nole should be the favorite against rafa until rafa proves himself again. Dont count out federer by any means, he could gather enough steam and overcome rafa and then win no.17 against nole ! Also, as lucky said , murray could well advance to the final and we might get a murray nadal final ! its darn close now...even rafa could beat nole, i have hopes for the new year :)

If your predictions come true Ricky that would be fantastic with one exception:

Final
Nadal over Djokovic in 4 - if that comes to pass I am willing to give up cakes & chocolate for 1 month!

Steve Tignor has tweeted that its an unconfirmed rumour that Australian Open officials hold an emergency meeting to ensure that both Fed and Rafa somehow reach the semis.

How can they even do that if its even true? I mean will they bribe other players ? :-)

Well Ricky if Nole has to win over Murray in 5, Nole plays his semi on Friday whereas Rafa-Fed finish theirs on Thursday , so theorotically speaking he will be tired and at a disadvantage in the final..well but Rafa was in similar position in 2009 and he still won it over FEd in final inspite of playing 5.5 hours in semi , Nole played like 3 hrs in Rome semi and still won final against Rafa the next day..so anythings possible

sanju
, 1/15/12 12:18 PM


Ever heard of "tongue in cheek"?

If Nole and Murray has to play for five sets, I think it will take more than three hours, as both can be grinders when playing against each other. Rome's situation was a bit different in that its a best of three sets so when Rafa was two sets down he's gone. Here at AO, even when two sets down, Rafa can still fight to come back. I don't think Rafa will make the same mistake like he did at the USO last year. He'll fight hard to win the second set if he lost the first, instead of giving chase after he's two sets down.

I like Fedal matches because its not grinding tennis, as Fed being the aggressor and Rafa the counter puncher, so they produced some excellent shot making and unbelievable tennis, exploiting all the angles and using all the court. Same with Fed vs Murray. Fed vs Nole was second to Fedal and about the same as Fed/Murray.

I totally dislike Rafa/Nole matches as its all about hard hitting and overpowering each other. I never like tennis like this. At least for Rafa/Murray, they try to outwit each other, though there're tendencies of long rallies. Nole/Murray, it depends on how Murray plays, if he tries to outhit Nole then the match can be ugly, but if he tries to outwit Nole, it can be interesting.

Nole over Murray in 5... hmmm, I'd rather it be 4. Don't see either Nadal or Federer beating Nole on this surface, it just seems to suit him the best.

Lucky, I really don't understand how you've been a Nadal fan for so many years to then say you don't enjoy Nole vs Nadal. Angles, physicality, power, still makes for some awesome tennis. The matchup is just lopsided, thats the problem.

samprilica, don't forget that the matchup was very lopsided in Rafa's favour until last year, I wouldn't get too smug if I were you.

I'm watching the final of the 2009 AO at the moment, if only Rafa could bring that game onto this year's tourny.

No samprallica, you're wrong. Even when Rafa beats Nole at the USO 2010 final, I really dislike or hate it when they have to get so physical playing against each other. Don't you forget how Nole got his back injured after the final match last year? Such was the physicality involved, not forgetting their Madrid 2009 match, and someone else then benefitted from it that year. Both Nole and Rafa were hurt by that match that year, Nole mentally and Rafa physically.

I'll rather watch Rafa/Fed, Nole/Fed or Murray/Fed matches, less physical and equally good shot makings and awesome tennis. I don't like Rafa/Nole matches all along, because I have this feeling that Nole wanted badly to beat Rafa all the time. He seemed more tolerant towards Fed, maybe out of respect for Fed because of Fed's seniority.

sampra..yes Nole beat Rafa 6 straight times..but none of them were lopsided

Both Wimby n USO were 4 setters with USO being nearly 4 hr 10 mns long

IW and Miami were intense 3 setters too

Rome and Madrd were straight sets but those straight set victories were 2 hr plus and were very closely fought

Have to agree with sanju here, that the matches were closely fought. Yes, even those straight set losses on clay. Rafa did fight back from 4-1 down in the first set at Madrid and was unfortunate that a net cord helped Nole clinched the first set when the set was at 6-5. The two sets at Rome were also closely fought and both players did break each others' serves. Its certainly not a lopsided match. Its more about Rafa's nerves than anything else; of course his nerves was due to Nole's good play too. I've to say Nole was good in exploiting Rafa's pathetic serves and miserable backhand, which broke down when under attack.

Djokovic over Murray in five :( but I think your prediction for the final is pretty accurate. A/O is going to prove very interesting given RNadals recent form in relation to his shoulder. I`m going slightly off topic here but don`t see it posted elsewhere. AndyM has been quoted as saying he doesn`t expect to see any benefits of having IvanL on board for 6 to 12 months which I think is a realistic supposition.

Lucky, you have a point re RNadals nerves and that Djokovic has been capitalising on this amongst other aspects of RNadals game, like I say an interesting time ahead.

Florian Mayer has withdrawn from the AO with hip strain.

Hope its not a sign of things to come over the next two weeks.

ESPN expert picks:

http://espn.go.com/sports/tennis/picks/_/tournament/8

See, even Mayer gets injured, now that he plays a bit more tennis due to his own success. So, it's not players' style of play but the gruelling conditions. I, like Murray, expect him to see results earliest at the USO or the AO next year. I just hope for some competitive matches between him and Tsonga and Nole should they meet. Murray has only played against Rafa in SFs of slams, he has not met Fed or Nole in a SF, so he may play better than he does in finals against them as pressure on him is not as great as in finals.

I am well aware of the fact that Nadal was handing Nole his backside in their first 18 meetings - this is not to say I don't think the matchup seemed a bit easy for Nole from the clay court meetings through to the US Open. What I will say though is I enjoy the Nole- Nadal matches, behind Federer-Djokovic of late. The matchup I enjoy the least is Nadal vs Murray, this is not to say I don't enjoy moments from their matches. I'm not taking anything away from Nadal, I genuinely like the guy and think he has all the ingredients to win against Nole.

Novak kicks cheater Nadal again in 2012

Rafa please make Roger cry again.... Rafa is not a cheater, but Roger is a real cry baby... sorry Roger, your fan need to be kicked because of his little brain...

Roddick DESTROYS Haase in 3 sets LOL

Tomic has just admitted in an interview on Eurosport that he faked fatigue to make Verdasco think he was out of the match and drop his intensity.

GO NOVAK

Oh sly boy, this Tomic.

tettylds. lol. And Nadal lost to Novak again in 2012. RG, too

Nadal advertizes a fake injury exaggeratedly again. and Nadal grumble to Novak's joy again.

^^^^^ ... tennisnba... Couldn't you choose litle less transparent nick? LOL!

zare, really? R u sure??? Well, blow me down with a feather...not ;)

Deuce ...

I am watching the re-telecast of murray-harrison match ...is it my feeling or murray playing aggressive??

arrogantcheatroger..... I think this is the way it should be.... the entire world knows Nadal is a humble champ and never cheat... only a blind, crazy and stupid people can't see and absolutely you are a hater not a tennis fan....

How is this person again here under a different screen name, saying the same things? Some people are determined to come on here to try to disrupt the discussion. I hope the moderators are watching and deleting these nonsensical comments.

What Tomic said doesn't surprise me. I think he is capable of pulling anything out there on the court. Whether it really fooled Verdasco or not, is something else. Usually you don't take anything for granted on the court. I still believe that Verdasco did this all on his own. He has not been playing quality tennis for some time now.

Tomic hasn't learned yet to keep his big mouth shut.

vamosrafa,

I saw some of the Roddick/Haase match. That wasn't even a contest. I honestly thought that Haase might give Roddick some trouble. I tried to stay up to see the end of the Tsonga/Istomin match, but finally fell asleep at 3:00 am my time. Nice to see that Tsonga got the win. That was a great match.

well put NNY...i hope you got to see rafa's match today..although a 3 set win, but i am not satisfied with many facets of his game :(

vamosrafa,

Yes, I did see Rafa's match. In a way I am lucky out here on the west coast of the U.S. The espn2 coverage starts at 6:00 pm my time and they go to midnight and then another four hours. So I get to see a lot of matches. I try to stay up as late as I can, but can't do the wee hours thing these days.

You said exactly what I was thinking about Rafa's match! It's like you are reading my mind from far away. :)

I thought he would have a much easier time against Haas. Should we get into specifics about our concerns? I just don't see enough aggressive play from Rafa. I don't see him moving into the court to close out points more quickly. He started playing very well, but then his level dropped and this is typical of what we have been seeing from him. He kind of goes up and down.

I still think he is too predictable these days. I want to see him change things up a little, keep his opponents off balance. I did not seeing him get broken in the first game of the third set. At least he was able to break back and end it nicely by breaking Haas.

I am trying not to overanalyze these early matches. We know that Rafa can take time to get into his best form. Right now Lacko is beating Young. I don't think he will be a huge problem, but he is playing well from what I have seen of that match. However, from the fourth round on it will get much tougher.

I didn't think Rafa served amazingly well, although I haven't checked out the stats on the tournament site. I did hear on a Rafa fan site that he practiced without the strapping today. That is good news. It means that he is only using it when he plays as a precaution.

I would love to hear your thoughts about Rafa's game.

mani4tennis, Andy's match was on too early for me so I only saw last few games....phew ;) However, did see Andy coming to the net a lot, which I am pleased about cos he is terrific there. Also one of the comms was asking why doesn't Harrison lob him more, so I guess he'd been doing it a lot. Terrific news if he is starting to play more aggressively :)

I really don't see what's wrong with what Tomic did or said. Perfectly within the rules, and commendable if you ask me; if your opponent has to drop his guard in order for you to have a chance to win, why not induce it? For the record, Verdasco said Tomic's behaviour had no effect on him.

Why is there talk about what Tomic did? Murray does the same thing sometimes (acting all injured and tired between points), nobody ever calls him out on it.

Tignor has written an enjoyable article on Tomic after his match against Verdasco.

I really hope that Nadal can play with increased confidence over the next matches. Would be good for him and for tennis. Now that Murray is playing better, Federer is doing well, huge results are expected from Nole, and some other players are playing better it would be great if Nadal started to play again with the confidence he used to have.

If history is any indication here? this is probably the grand slam least likely to have all top 4 end up in the semis. Not taking anything away from Rick?s thoughtful predictions. On paper the 4 might do it. But even with all four playing well recently? this is the Australian Open and it seems to be upset-prone every year, at every ranking level.

ts38, Atomic didn't feign injury or anything like that. What he did was say in post match interview that he played poorly for 2 sets to lull Verdsaco into a false sense of security! I just laughed and laughed when I read that. Typical teenager trying to find an excuse.

^^ Yup sounds more like it. I don't see how a player would take such a risk in a grand slam match, lose two sets just to lull a former grand slam semifinalist into a false sense of security. Tomic seems to be your regular kid on the block off court, which makes his tennis acumen seem even more impressive.

Hewitt in the third round. TOLD YOU!

How can a player decide to play poorly for two sets for the sake of it and then up his game when he feels like it. How did he know Verdasco would lower his intensity.

Raonic vs djokovic match can be tough to predict

^^^^ Djokovic. Hope that helps.

^LOL.

What was wrong with Roddick? He looks in tears on the AO website.

mriiidula,

Roddick suffered a hamstring injury during his match with Hewitt. He had to go off court in the second set to get treatment. He continued playing, but it was obvious that he was hampered by the injury. I fell asleep after 3:00 am my time while the match was still in progress. I am trying to catch up on the news today here and on tv. I am not sure if he had to retire or just lost the match due to injury.

I saw some of his press conference after the match and he was very disappointed about yet another injury.

Thanks for the info NNY. He retired after trailing 2 sets to 1 I think. Its a shame, because the match was apparently very entertaining until he suffered the injury.

Wishing AndyR a speedy recovery.

mriiidula,

Believe me, I don't usually stay up that late these days but the match was very enjoyable to watch. I really felt bad for Roddick when he was injured. You could see it immediately. He turned in an awkward position to return a shot and that was it.

Actually I fell asleep after Hewitt won the second set to even it up and then I woke up a little before 4 am to see that they were in the third set. I turned off the tv and went back to sleep. I was pretty sure that Roddick wasn't going to be able to make it. A hamstring injury is painful and really hampers your movement.

I do feel really bad for him. I don't know if I am up for another long night into the wee hours of the morning. However, I really want to see Delpo. Lots of great matches!

I know, looking forward to it! So many great matches and it's only the third round.
AO is the only grand slam I can watch without sacrificing on my sleep, since Australia is just three hours ahead for me. Benefits of Asia!

3 tournaments into the beginning of the season, 1st major of the year, not even the 4th round. 8 retirements/walkovers in men's singles alone. Wait, what's the problem again?

^^ Unfortunately, Federer doesn't have these problems, so the season should remain as it is. The others are just bad players/schedulers.

Just wanted to share something. I thought Nadal was NOT effective enough on his 1st serve last year.something he could not build upon from 2010. I was gutted when djokovic MANHANDLED rafa's 1st serve at the Us open last year.

Although only 3 matches down under so far, but here are some stats to show his serving improvements.

Nadal (2011)=54% 63% 58% (1st serve %)
84% 83% 68% (points won on 1st serve) 15 ACES

Nadal (2012)= 68% 64% 81% (1st serve %)
86% 75% 85% (points won on 1st serve) 13 ACES

*rafa is serving SLOWER than last year though. Average aswell as fastest speed fo both 1st and 2nd serves are considerably lower from last year. However, he is placing his serve better than ever ! that slider out-wide has been a killer so far and I think he's focusing more on precision and accuracy right now rather than pace, saving his shoulder at the same time.

^^^vamosrafa, I thin he said as much, or maybe one of the commentators said it.

Ricky can smirk as much as he likes, but I think you are a great statistician. Lol

You can find some statistics here:

http://healthnsports4u.blogspot.com/2012/01/rafael-nadal-stro ng-signs-of-revival.html

thanks mani4tennis:)

To have any chance against Djokovic - Rafa will need to hit a first serve percentage of between 87% - 90% and hit between 15-20 aces.

More than that, lebsta2, Rafa needs to (a) get his backhand firing and (b) rediscover his running forehand so as to neutralise Nole's backhand. It's Nole's backhand that has caused Rafa problems. And for me, the solution is the running forehand because Nole's backhand is at it's most lethal when it is aimed at Rafa's forehand and because it is flat and fast, Rafa cannot counter it standing still, he has to take it on the run and this is what Rafa has stopped doing. He used to do this, not any more and I wonder if that is a function of age, he is just not fast enough anymore.

I recall an interview Fed did after Rafa's comeback from knee injury, Roger observed that Rafa no longer hit his forehand on the run and the way he said, you sensed that he meant that this made Rafa less lethal.

Who knows, maybe Nole will also display some chinks in his armour sooner rather than later

@Rafaisthe best

100% with you on this - of course there's a lot more adjustments that Rafa needs to make -it's just that cover them all would take some long paragraphs indeed. I just feel that improvement Rafa needs to make the most is his serve.

I guess we will have to see how both Rafa and Nole get on in their respective qtr finals to get a better indication of where they're at. In truth none of the big four (or five if you count Delpo) have been really tested, so its hard to say which player is performing the best.

I honestly don't feel that Nole will not get tested until the semis - if he meets Murray.

After his knee injury, his backhand was also affected. It's seems he can't hit that CC backhand as flat, as hard or as precise as before. He seems a step slow in getting into position to hit that backhand and isn't able to hit with as much power as before(looping it instead of flattening it) when hitting that backhand shot. Also, when under pressure he'll shank his backhand. His running backhand passes however are still as great as before.

While Nadal is an overall better all round player than he was in his 2008 and does hit the ball bigger in general, the knee injury does seem to have permanently impaired some elements of his game.

Most striking, as luckstar mentioned, is the backhand. The explosiveness of Nadal's movement towards his left is lacking. It's much too easy to drag Rafa wide off the court laterally on his backhand side, after which he loses control of the point. Djokovic (like Davydenko before) has been doing this by hitting short angled forehand cross courts to Nadal's backhand. Furthermore, Nadal's backhand simply does not have the weight of shot that it used to before his injury. I don't think he's leaning as much into it nor hitting it flat enough. The down the line backhand (which Rafa uses often as a transition shot to change direction) sometimes has MORE spin than even his forehand!! So his opponents take offense on the high bouncing short spin ball. This never used to happen in the past.

The other part that is missing is his off-forehand. While these days his forehand has better depth overall and maybe more pace, his ability to change direction down the line, to hit a passing shot on the run or to get in position early enough to hit inside out --- ALL that is not as good as it used to before. This does blunt the offensive options Rafa has, because when his off-forehand is ON, it's very difficult to defend against, as he sets it up so well. Because of this missing arsenal Nadal has to rely more on the cross court forehand and his defense. This is another reason why Nadal stands so far back, because he cannot be as aggressive as he likes in a neutral rally..

Yes, thanks imjimmy for the analysis. Rafa himself knows all these and that's why I believe he develops his net game to add on to his arsenal, having lost some speed and power at the back court. He may have become a better all round player now, and that may help compensate for the loss of speed and power. Anyway as a player grows older, he has to accept the fact that he'll lose some speed and power, the only regret is that Rafa's comes a bit too soon, all due to his injuries. Well considering the fact that he has a genetic foot problem, he has already done well to come so far, so I just wish he can still play and enjoy his tennis and wins some more important titles.

Thanks luckystar for your thoughts. Surprisingly, I still see a lot of upside for Rafa. Why? Because despite having lost half a step, he's STILL insanely fast, almost one of the quickest guys on tour. He has hellish power from both wings, should he chose to exercise it. His reflexes and hand-eye coordination are among the best, if not the best.

There is much tactically wrong with Rafa that could be improved. Much more so than the other members in the Big 4 gang. There's no reason for Rafa to stand 10 feet behind the baseline and mostly hit cross court bolo forehands that land near the service line. He's a much better player than that.

I have a feeling that he's been too stubborn in the recent past. He's still playing Djokovic/Murray/others as he used to in 2009. Where as the fact is that his strategy hasn't kept up pace with the improvements in their game. In the case of Djokovic, as his errors dried up, so have Nadal's victories against him.

One word I can use to describe Rafa's game in the past year is "dull". Let's hope he learns from his mistakes and spices it soon!