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2012-01-13 04:40:20
For the first time since the 2005 French Open, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are in the same half of a Grand Slam draw.
Sure, the plethora of Federer vs. Novak Djokovic semifinals was fun, but apparently the tennis gods finally decided that it was getting old. Thus, the two semifinals at this year's Australian Open could feature one of the greatest rivalries in tennis history (Nadal vs. Federer) and a rematch of the 2011 final (Djokovic vs. Andy Murray).
But let's not get ahead of ourselves quite yet. First, a look at the entire bracket for the season's first major....
Djokovic’s quarter
Djokovic could not have asked for a much better draw. He avoided the best of the 5-8 seeds (he has David Ferrer instead of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga) and his first three matches should be an absolute breeze. Looking ahead even further, the top-ranked Serb's recent results suggest he is content with Murray on his side instead of Federer. Of course, this is not to say it will be a complete cakewalk for Djokovic in Melboune. Milos Raonic is dangerous anytime anywhere, and he has again started the season on fire (title in Chennai). Djokovic and Raonic are on a collision course for the fourth round Down Under.
Among those who cannot be pleased with the hands they've been dealt? Andy Roddick. Nearing 30, the American will be eager to catch some breaks this season but he did not get any such thing at Friday's draw ceremony. Roddick opens with Robin Haase and the rest of his potential pre-quarterfinal path goes Lleyton Hewitt, Raonic, then Djokovic. In the other half of this section, Ferrer should waltz into the fourth round. Janko Tipsarevic, however, will likely have his hands full during the first weekend with either Richard Gasquet or Mikhail Youzhny.
Best first-round matchup — (15) Andy Roddick vs. Robin Haase
Roddick and Haase faced each other last year in the third round. Haase took the first set but went away quietly in sets three and four after losing the second in a tiebreaker. Over the course of the year, however, Haase got better and better (and stayed healthy) while Roddick mostly slumped. Haase definitely has upset potential, but the question is can he hold his nerve in a close match? Case in point: the 6'3'' Dutchman led Murray by two sets at last summer's U.S. Open before falling in five.
Best potential second-round matchup – (17)Richard Gasquet vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Best potential third-round matchup – (15) Andy Roddick vs. (23) Milos Raonic
Possible surprises — Youzhny was borderline awful in 2011, but it could be time for us to hear from the Russian once more. He advanced to the Doha quarterfinals to begin this season then gave Nadal a decent test. Nobody other than Djokovic is unbeatable in this section of the draw, and Djokovic is in the other half. Youzhny-Gasquet would be a rematch of an epic 2010 Aussie Open first-round encounter, won by Youzhny 6-7(9), 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(4), 6-4 in four hours and 53 minutes. The winner has quarterfinal potential at this year's event.
Murray’s quarter
The second quarter of the draw is simply loaded. First there's Murray and then there's the trio of top Frenchmen--Tsonga, Gael Monfils, and Gilles Simon. Three other seeded players (Viktor Troicki, Kei Nishikori, and Alex Bogomolov) are coming off the best seasons of their careers. Dangerous unseeded floaters in this section include Juan Carlos Ferrero, Julien Benneteau, Ernests Gulbis, and Michael Llodra.
Murray opens with Ryan Harrison, which is not the easiest of matchups for the Scot but it's obviously far worse news for Harrison. The troubling issue for Murray is that he could meet Monfils as early as round four and Tsonga--his quarterfinal opponent if the seeds hold to form--is arguably the top title contender outside the Big 4. Tsonga did not get much luck going up against current Sydney semifinalist Denis Istomin right off the bat, but rounds two and three should be smooth sailing for the world No. 6.
Best first-round matchup — (19) Viktor Troicki vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero
How much does Ferrero have left in the tank at 31 years old? On the positive side, he played well in 2011 and avoided injury. On the scary side, he got blown out by Benoit Paire 6-3, 6-2 in the Auckland opening round. Still, that was Ferrero's first match of the season and he should be able to show more in Melbourne. Troicki is in decent form, but he did not do much in either Doha or Sydney prior to the Australian Open. It's doubtful he will be able to blow Ferrero off the court, so this will likely develop into an entertaining baseline battle.
Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Gael Monfils vs. Thomaz Bellucci
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Gilles Simon vs. (24) Kei Nishikori
Possible surprises — The chances of serious surprises in this section are few and far between simply because the crop of seeded players is so impressive. Watch out, though, for up-and-coming Aussie Matthew Ebden. Thank1 to a nice draw, the in-form Ebden has a legitimate shot at reaching the fourth round. In fact, he already has a win over potential third-round opponent Simon (last fall in Shangahi). Other unseeded threats to reach the third round are Jesse Levine, Michael Llodra, and Julien Benneteau.
Federer’s quarter
At first glance, Federer's draw could not be any easier. His first two rounds are virtual walkovers and he is in a quarter with least imposing of the 5-8 seeds (Mardy Fish). However, it may not be quite so simple. Ivo Karlovic looms large (literally) as a possible third-round roadblock and Federer's likely quarterfinal opponent is not Fish, but rather Juan Martin Del Potro. This is not quite the same Del Potro that beat Federer in the 2009 U.S. Open final, but the Argentine showed signs of his former self last month in Davis Cup.
Of particular interest to the Aussies is the placement of their man Bernard Tomic, and it's half good, half bad for the youngster. He could go out right away to Fernando Verdasco, but it's also relatively open for him to reach the second week and go up against Federer in the fourth round. Tomic could face Alexandr Dolgopolov, last year's Australian Open sensation, in what would be a third-round blockbuster.
Best first-round matchup — (22) Fernando Verdasco vs. Bernard Tomic
This is the one that everyone is looking forward to, especially Down Under. Just 19 years old, Tomic is already Australia's best hope for success now and in the future. He enjoyed a breakout 2011 campaign and he opened 2012 by reaching the Brisbane semifinals. Verdasco was mostly disappointing last season, but he currently finds himself in the Auckland semis. In their only previous meeting, the Spaniard hammered Tomic three years ago in Brisbane. Of course, this is a completely different Tomic in 2012. This has all the makings of a five-set blockbuster in Rod Laver Arena.
Best potential second-round matchup – (20) Florian Mayer vs. Steve Darcis
Best potential third-round matchup – (8) Mardy Fish vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Possible surprises — Tomic has a tough opening-round encounter on his hands, but the good news for him is that he can't meet anyone seeded better than 13th until a possible fourth-round date with Federer. The Aussie definitely has second-week potential, and if Federer's back is not 100 percent or if the Swiss somehow lost to, say, Karlovic in round three, then things could really get crazy. Any part of the draw near Fish is wide open, so don't be surprised if the winner of the Juan Monaco vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber match advances to round four.
Nadal’s quarter
Nadal's draw is similar to that of Federer; a qualifier in round one, no real trouble in round two, possibly a big-serving Croat in round three (in Nadal's case, Ivan Ljubicic), then more difficulty beginning with the second week. The world No. 2 could run into 6'9'' American John Isner before a potential quarterfinal against Tomas Berdych. Both Isner and Berdych are question marks heading into Melbourne, but Nadal of all people won't discount them (see Isner at the 2011 French Open and a three-match streak for Berdych against Nadal in 2005 and 2006).
Overall, this section is relatively soft and could allow for plenty of buzz generated by the unseeded contingent. Outside of Nadal (who is far from unbeatable right now, himself), the seeds can be had. Berdych is dealing with shoulder injuries, Isner usually doesn't heat up until the U.S. hard courts, Kevin Anderson is hurt, and the others (Nicolas Almagro, Feliciano Lopez, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Ljubicic) just don't scare anyone. As a result, the door is open for guys like Marcos Baghdatis, David Nalbandian, Grigor Dimitrov, and Donald Young.
Best first-round matchup — David Nalbandian vs. Jarkko Nieminen
Even at 30 years old each, Nalbandian and Nieminen could make for one of the more exciting first-round clashes. Despite tons of injury trouble, Nalbandian is still playing well and comes in at No. 64 in the world. Nieminen is 77th but sure to rise as he has advanced to the Sydney title match as of Friday afternoon. These are two of the best ball-strikers in the business; they always have been and they still are. Breaks of serve will come early and often; points will be long and grueling.
Best potential second-round matchup – (21) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) John Isner vs. Nikolay Davydenko
Possible surprises — Baghdatis thrilled the tennis world with an incredible run to the 2006 Aussie final and he battled Hewitt until 4:34 AM in 2008. More Cypriot magic could be in store in 2012. His nearest seeds are Wawrinka and Almagro, so a fourth-round berth is possible if not altogether probable. Even Berdych and Nadal are beatable for Baghdatis, especially on this surface and at this tournament. Also look for youngsters Dimitrov and Young to play their way into the third round.
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Interesting reading Ricky, but in regard to Nadal/Berdy, why look at '...........a three-match streak for Berdych against Nadal in 2005 and 2006).' Why not take their most recent encounters to justify your thoughts? Not that it affects any of the outcome but it just proves how subjective these musings are.
nadline , 1/13/12 3:53 PM
Sorry, the word I was looking for was 'selective' not 'subjective'.
nadline , 1/13/12 3:56 PM
I agree that DelPo is going to be Roger's likely quarterfinal opponent. OTOH, he didn't exactly impress in Sydney, did he?
Surely, like every other AO, we'll have at least a few surprises. I'm most interested to see how Raonic fares this year.
cherylmurray , 1/13/12 4:02 PM
no the word you were looking for was "subjective"
but your argument is wrong despite choosing the correct word. If I was analyzing the Nadal-Berdych matchup (which I won't do until they play each other), then I would discuss how Nadal has won most of their recent meetings; if I was analyzing Nadal's mindset about playing Berdych, then it would be unfair not to mention that he has lost to him three times in the past.
Nadal is not going to overlook Berdych. Is Berdych actually going to WIN? That's not for me to discuss here.
RickyDimon , 1/13/12 4:42 PM
Yes, but Ricky, if you were discussing Nadal v Djoko, you wouldn't talk about the big h2h Rafa had over him until last year you will only refer to their most recent meetings, that's why I said you are being selective in choosing your evidence.
nadline , 1/13/12 4:50 PM
Discussing in what way? You have to be more specific. If I was discussing who is going to win the match, I would talk about Djokovic's current winning streak against Nadal. If I was discussing whether or not Nadal would have a CHANCE, then I would talk about their overall head-to-head history.
Again, I was not discussing who would win the Nadal-Berdych match. I was discussing how Nadal would feel about it. And obviously he would feel different about it if his head-to-head record vs. Berdych was 7-0 instead of 7-3.
RickyDimon , 1/13/12 5:33 PM
Ricky, now I see where you were coming from. Anyway, I don't think Nadal will discount any player in the top 20-30 or so whatever his h2h with them was.
nadline , 1/13/12 5:43 PM
I wouldn't say Rafa's draw is that easy mainly because I don't know which Rafa will turn up. His early rounds are often more dangerous depending on his own game... However, I do like seeing Berdy rather than either Tsonga or Delpo as the quarterfinal opponents for Rafa...I also would not mind having Ferrer as I do not think he could beat Rafa again unless Rafa was injured...IMO, Nole has the easiest draw, maybe because Nole is so expected to deal easily with however is on the opposite side, but I really see no worries for him until the semis...Andy has the toughest draw but then again I remember Andy was usually up to the task when he met dangerous players at GSs which Tsonga certainly is these days...however, I think Andy is a bad matchup for Tsonga and I just don't see him losing to Tsonga or Monflis for that matter...I bet Tsonga would rather chose any other of the top four players instead of ?Lendl Junior?...I expect to see Andy alive and kicking in the semis...Fed's draw is also an easy one until the quarters...Delpo is playing well, although not his best yet as he ended up losing to Baggy yesterday, but I just know he will be ready to go far in this AO...
VAMOS RAFA!!! Go out there and play some real tennis the way you know it the best!
VAMOS UNCLE TONI!!!
natashao , 1/13/12 6:38 PM
Delpo has only ever done well in 1 slam. Granted he was out for a year with injury, but he is not a serial GS winner so he still has to prove himself, IMO.
nadline , 1/13/12 7:12 PM
Delpo can be tough to beat in a best of five sets match. I was surprised by how well he played against Ferrer and Rafa on clay, and he almost beat Ferrer at the DC final. He seems to have improved his stamina and no longer runs out of steam that readily. I think his performance in Sydney is not a good gauge of his current level. Its just a warm up event and I'm sure he's not going to exhaust himself there. I think he has the ability to beat Fish in the 4th Round and then face off against Fed in the QF; not sure about the outcome of that encounter though.
luckystar , 1/13/12 7:49 PM
good stuff Ricky as always. glad to read analysis by someone who actually _knows_ tennis.
rfzr , 1/13/12 8:03 PM
What would the result of a Federer-Nadal semifinal prove?
samprallica , 1/14/12 8:29 AM
lucky, as I watched Baggy beat Delpot three things occurred to me 1) after that wrist injury his serve, especially the second, is looking vulnerable 2) if you give him the time to set up his monstrous forehand, you might as well not bother turning up on court! However, if you take the ball very early and take time away from him, you have a better than even chance. This is what Baggy did so effectively 3) to me his stamina is still an issue. Don't know how he'd cope in a 5 set match.
deuce , 1/14/12 9:07 AM
Didn't Delpo beat Fed in a five set match at the USO 2009 final? If Delpo breeze through the earlier rounds, stamina won't be an issue for him when he reaches the fourth round or even the QF. Delpo was unfortunate to have met Nole in the third round at the FO and Rafa in the fourth round at Wimbledon. With his ranking at no.11 now, he'll only face them in the QFs so he has a good chance of progressing that far. He has the game to beat Fish, and if he can play as well as he did at USO 2009 and if Fed is still affected by his bad back, he has the chance of beating Fed again.
All these are just talks only, as we really don't know how the players will perform in their matches. Anything can happen on the tennis court so it's anybody's guess now until the matches are played.
luckystar , 1/14/12 2:22 PM
lucky, I meant stamina since all that time off with injury. I think he was peak of fitness US 2009. I'm sure he can beat Fish and has a chance at Fed. Aren't the courts playing slower though, won't suit Fed.
deuce , 1/14/12 3:01 PM
US open surface suits delpo more than AO.
Delpo was able to beat Fed in 2009 USO in 5 setter but Fed just blown him in AO 2009 but every match is different so we will see.
mani4Tennis , 1/14/12 3:04 PM
But Delpo ran Fed close at the FO the same year, and clay was a slower surface than the AO. Delpo's game is such that when it's on, he can blow anyone off the court. He still has his stamina problem though it's already much improved, so I think how soon he can navigate past his opponents will decide how well he'll play in the later rounds.
luckystar , 1/15/12 7:18 AM
That blowout loss to Fed in the 2009 AO, is not likely to happen again. I think that is one reason why he played Fed so tough in the FO that year, as lucky said. I never saw that embarrassing loss by Delpo to Fed in the 2009 AO, so I can't say what happened. But one thing is for sure - by the time of the 2009 USO, Delpo was in excellent form and ready to take on Fed. He beat him in the same year that he had his worst loss from Fed. He was a work in progress at the time and it all came together for him at the USO. We will never know what might have happened if he had not suffered that serious wrist injury that cost him a year out of tennis.
It is true that when Delpo is on his game, he can beat any of the top four players. Also, as lucky said now that Delpo is ranked #11, he won't have to face any of them in the early rounds. He has a shot at playing himself into great form. We will have to see about the stamina issue.
It is true that this is all speculation. I am anxious to see the players in action finally, so I can get an idea of how they look. I want to watch as many matches as possible.
Nativenewyorker , 1/15/12 9:18 AM
It's going to be a great two weeks, and can't wait fore that Tomic-V'co first round match up. At the end of the day, it will be....FED!!
scoot , 1/15/12 5:32 PM
I like Roger, But I hope Novak-Nadal finals. And Novak kicks cheater Nadal again in 2012.
also RG
tennisnba , 1/16/12 4:38 PM
I don't mind Rafa lose to Novak as long as he beat Roger again.... Go Rafa beat coward Roger...
tettylds , 1/17/12 1:08 AM
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Qualifiers are never a walkover as they already have several matches under their belt when they reach R1 of the main draw. It will be interesting to see who Federer gets.... and how he fares.
lluisa , 1/13/12 2:00 PM