monfils over rafa is absurd .. hardly makes sense. Rafa looked good against federer and doha's surface can suit him well too. Rafa's use of a heavier racket is a gamble but i think its going to pay off .But when exactly its gona pay off? not sure

won't pay off right away, that's for sure!

Monfils over Nadal isn't absurd at all.

I would not normally pick Monfils over Rafa, but at this point I just don't know what to expect from Rafa. I have read about this new heavier racket that he is using. He doesn't seem comfortable with it at the moment.

I won't call it an absurd pick, just a bit surprising. I need to get a look at Rafa to see where his game is at. I wasn't able to see him in the exho, so hopefully I will not get the chance to assess how he looks.

Sorry, silly typo. I meant to say hopefully I will NOW get the chances to assess how Rafa looks!

Bring on the tennis!

The heavier racket takes away some power of his shots, but generates more control... I don't know if a switch will pay off. Djokovic switched rackets in 2009, and it payed off in 2011.

I don't know if changing the racket is the best decision... we'll have to wait and see

Thank goodness, Rafa and Roger have not played on water this year in the promos because that's what did for Rafa with the flu at the start of 2011.

yea nadline, that flu marred rafa's season to some extent i believe !

@ricky, even if monfils wins, the pick is absurd. how can u justify this pick?had gael been on fire lately and had rafa been struggling then the pick would have made sense . However, rafa has started hitting the ball pretty well now and I do believe his game will be raised to new heights by his new racket and mindset, watch out everyone inc djoker

@bonker, lets remove the confusions.

heavier racket ADDS power to the racket ! the problem is adjusting and regaining control so the trade-off is power against control. Additionally, djoko changed his racket entirely, i.e shifted to wilson to head whereas rafa has just made a relatively minor adjustment by altering the weight at the tip. It is said that heavier rackets also reduce the risk of getting arm and shoulder injuries (i can elaborate by providing some physics i read somewhere if u are intersted ) .

this change for me is a crucial step for rafa. Previously it was federer who forced rafa to raise his game and excel on grass/hard , now its djoker ! i do believe rafa will rule the tennis world again although djoko will be an even tougher challenge

Hello vamosrafa, welcome back.

I'm also hoping that 2012 will be better than 2011, for Rafa. May all parts of his game and all his weapons be good as they can be. We may not see that AO 09 CC backhand again; or that USO 2010 serve; or his speed and power of 2008. However, with his improved volleying skills and net game, I hope he can play more aggressively and steps inside the court more often and cut down on the rallying, for it's in the long rallies that his weaknesses are exposed - a backhand that's not as good as it was in the past, his loss of speed and power after his injuries and as he grows older.

I really wish that he moves up the court more often and shortens the points; takes control from there instead of staying at the baseline and spends so much time rallying and running around.

I always thought Monfils had game that is suitable to Rafa...I believe Rafa can always beat Monfils and I would never go as far as predicting Monfils over Rafa...for me it is just unlikely to happen...I know where this is coming from: Monfils was able to take a set from Nole and all of the sudden he is the major threat to Rafa...wrong thinking...Monfils took a set from Nole because Nole was not playing seriously that second set and he was joking around...once he decided that it was time to end the joking part he easily thrashed Monfils..I even think Monfils will have a very hard time with Troicki tomorrow...by the way, what is this stupid announcement on ATP site on Tsonga to meet Trocki in QF...do those people watch any tennis?!

anyway, Youzhny is not an easy opponent and Rafa will have to produce some of his best stuff to beat him...I just want to see Rafa improve day by day...so far so good...

VAMOS RAFA!!!

vamosrafa,

Great to see you posting here again! You are absolutely right about the heavier racket adding power and the tradeoff being loss of control. I say that because there is a quote from Rafa himself on another topic thread about the new racket. He said exactly what you did. He thinks this will give him more power, but he said that he cannot feel the forehand as well. He also said that normally the idea is to train with this new racket for about a month, so doing it now is a bit difficult after not enough practice. But I am glad to see him willing to take risks and try something new to change things up.

I have only been able to watch highlights of Rafa's first two matches. From what I saw of this second match, Rafa was moving into the court and being more aggressive. I realize that this guy is a very low ranked nobody, but Rafa has never played him and that can be a bit of a challenge. I liked what I saw.

Finally the tennis channel will start showing the matches. So I am recording Rafa's match with Youzhny at 4:30 am my time and will watch it when I get up. I can't wait to see a full match to get a feel for where Rafa's game is at now.

I also have to agree with you and natashao about Ricky's pick. Initially I said it was a bit surprising, but I do believe it was an absurd pick. Monfils is very weak mentally and that is where Rafa will always have the advantage.

lucky,

Great to read your thoughts! I also hope that Rafa will shorten the points and cut down on those long rallies from the baseline that are so hard on his body.

hello NNY and lucky , great to see you both and thanks for the feedback :)

yeah that CC backhand at Aus 09 was one wicked shot ! i remember rafa beating federer's forehand with his backhand so many times ! however, there is still some hop he gets that lethal weapon back, and the key is CONFIDENCE, the more confident the spanish bull is, the more he'l step up the court and FLATTEN OUT HIS BACKHAND.

We all know rafa it at his lethal best on hard/grass (even clay) when he tends to flatten his groundies and create variation in his game. The improved net play can always complement his baseline agression but the key is to get the rhythm and confidence on baselines strokes back. Yes you are right,The 2010 Us open serve might not come back as rafa wont risk his shoulder by pressing so hard on his serve i guess.
Rafa is continually attempting to hit flat inside-out forehands and those lovely DTH forehands ever since that federer match in abu dhabi.

I have observed that another barometer of rafa's confidence level is his court positioning of course. I would like to go deeper by saying that when rafa aint confident and he is struggling he tends to move backwards when hitting so many backhands , esp the deep ones, what makes it worse is that he ends up hitting them short/high in the middle of the court to be punished. Whenever I have seen rafa at his best on quick courts, he stands so close to the baseline and look how he shortens the swing on his backhand to get more angles and take time away by taking the ball early. Its a beauty when he just leans into his backhands as she stands so close to the baseline ( i hate it when he shuffles back and loops backhands into the centre)

lastly, the new racket 'in theory' requires at least 3-4 weeks to get adjusted to so i hope our man is ready as he heads to week 2 in Aus. I am hopeful about his game this time :)

additionally, jason guddoll pointed out yesterday that the new racket might just give rafa the belief and something that would enable him to get going and challeneg djokovic, i.e, the mental aspect ! he also underlined how great an advantage rafa could get by improving his return of serve ..he said djokovic's 2nd serve is not great one, its not bad at all but not great either so rafa needs to take adv..barry cowen highlited how rafa's tentative backhands got him into troubles against novak last year and i agree 100% with these two. Rafa's backhand to me was the shot that let him down last year

I agree that Rafa's backhand was the shot that let him down in 2011, especially against Nole. It was at IW or Miami that Nole exposed Rafa's backhand weakness and fully took advantage of it from then onwards. Just imagine Rafa having his AO 2009 backhand, Nole's forehand would not be able to deal with it, not even Fed's forehand could handle Rafa's lethal CC backhand! Also Rafa's DTL forehand was on and off throughout 2011, due mainly to the fluctuation in his confidence level. His DTL forehand and backhand were excellent during his DC matches against France and Argentina. I'll love it if he can play like his DC matches, add in his good volleying and net approaches. Now that his serve seems to be back to normal, I'll like to see him work on his ROS.

vamosrafa,

This is why you cannot leave us! How I have missed chatting with you! I noticed last year how Rafa was hitting his backhand cc shots from further behind the baseline. I rewound my recordings of his matches and noticed that he was not positioned more inside the baseline. When he hits that cc backhand shot from behind the baseline, it loses its effectiveness completely. That shot did let him down big time last year and Nole showed everyone else how to use that weakness to get Rafa out of position and vulnerable.

At the 2010 USO, I remember in the final how Rafa was taking the ball so early with his cc backhands. He really lost that in 2011. Of course, as we all know with Rafa, confidence is everything. That cc backhand is his confidence shot. When he is feeling it, that shot is a ferocious weapon. His confidence was so badly damaged by Nole that it only made the problem worse.

Rafa knows how to flatten out his groundstrokes, but when he is not feeling confident then he seems to revert to standing behind the baseline and using the topspin.

I am hopeful that Rafa got some real confidence from his DC matches. That is when I realized that so much of his problem was lack of confidence. If his game had really degraded overall, then he would not have been able to play some quality tennis in the semifinal and final DC matches. That showed me that his core game was still there, but when he is back on clay he feels much more confident and in his element.

lucky,

I also agree about the ROS. As vamosrafa said, Nole's second serve can be attacked. Rafa can't just be content to get the ball back, rather he has to try to hit a winning ROS that can put his opponent at a disadvantage. Someone said during the DC finals that this was a big problem for Rafa this year. I don't remember which commentator said it, but his point was that Rafa just tried to get the ball back in play, rather than using his ROS to win the point. I think that was a good observation.

Finally tomorrow I will get to see one whole match and be able to get a feel for where his game is right now. I am hopeful that the heavier racket will give him that intangible feeling of strength against Nole this year.

thanks a ton NNY and lucky for sharing your thoughts, its great to have people like you here:) . well, here is something rafa said

"I'm trying to play aggressive, I'm trying to return a little bit better, because for me the worst thing I did for most of last year was the return, especially the second half of the year,"
"I'm so happy with my returns here and happy how a few things have worked well with the new weight of the racket. I'm starting to have good feelings, so that's really important."

so basically, rafa IS positive about this racket change and I am so glad he has realized that his ROS needs amendments and it was his ROS that led to his dominance being dwindled. We all know rafa is a terminator if he gets the balance on his ROS right. With his big swings, its tough to hit clean winners off his ROS.However, he can pounce on weak serve to flatten out his returns and look for DEEP returns otherwise (something he did so well in 2008 RG-wimb) .. 2008 RG rafa was OUT-OF-THIS-WORLD. His ROS throughout the tournament was pretty good because he maintained good length.

Lastly, the biggest concern for me regarding rafa's ROS is handling those well hit out-wide slice serves on the duece court ! its becoming a common strategy to employ against rafa now.Federer uses it so well and now nole did that last year..even kohlschreiber was trying to exploit that return! rafa is working on it nonetheless, and i am happy about it :)

Very well noticed Vamosrafa, ( btw, nice to see you back).
New racquet can become new confidence for Rafa.
I am Nole fan... But I woul'd like to see that warrior atittude again from Rafa.

Great predictions for Doha Ricky.
Had Federer not withdrawn you could be 100% right.

"monfils over rafa is absurd .. hardly makes sense.", vamosrafa

You were saying...

dedicated to vamosrafa

"monfils over rafa is absurd"

I just hope your predicitons for the year end rankings are also correct. lol

Why am I not surprised to see a Fed fan trying to stir things up by rubbing it in someone's face that they were wrong. Same old, same old.

I also don't think there is any need to beat this thing to death. Rafa lost, the end.

Is ricky a federer fan!!! Didn't know.

Oh please! My comment was directed at Fed fans and you know who you are!

As far as Ricky, if he wants to gloat over his prediction, that's his business. However, I was not referring to him. However, nice try to take my comments and turn them around. Typical.

I wouldn't be laughing with Fed withdrawing due to an injured back. However, if it was Rafa we know the tune Fed fans would be singing. It never changes.

"monfils over rafa is absurd"

this site is being compromised by rafatards.

Just watched the Tipsy/Raonoc Chennai final.........................this Raonic fellow is going to claim a major scalp at the Oz2012 mark my word. Aces should be banned from tennis, they constitute an unfair advantage.............................

Bravo Milose!!!

Great win for Raonic!!! The whole Montenegro is with him! Way to go Milos!!!

And Ricky, I really admire your picks! The Prophet Ricky is right again...:)

What is compromising this site, is people who come on here for the express purpose of insulting any Rafa fan who makes a prediction or statement with which they disagree. One can have a different opinion without resorting to insults and honestly, the term "Rafatard" is getting to be old. If that is all one can say as a response, then that is an indication of that person's inability to make a coherent comment.

@Ricky, if u think absurd predictions cannot come true, then u are not living in this world. May be the choice of words was not appropriate, ready to admit that but if I start 'dediciating' some of the predictions you make, things wont sound too nice :)

choosing a 'cold' person to reach the finals does nt make sense either

some lines remain embedded in your memory for a long time so I would like to write something. After rafa's epic win over verdasco in Aus 09 semi, MR.Dimon was highly impressed by the match as he hailed it big time. HOWEVER, speaking of the final against federer on sunday, he was of the opinion nadal would be 'routined by federer' !
we all know how much of a ROUTINE WIN it was for federer on sunday and how much that final backed up Ricky's prediction of a routine 3 set win .

Dont feel like writing this but not in a good mood today because of some family tensions,just came up with this post suddenly :S. Sorry if some part of my behavior seemed senseless or annoying

@rfzr, haha. when some one who has not been posting much on the website ,comes on a forum JUST to make comment regarding an old comment made by a rafa fan. This actually reflects his/her hatred for rafa and his devoted fans, more than it reflects the presence of rafatards on this site !

@bleck, ok my statement turned out to be absurd and you were the first one to point it out haha, thts ok and we all have the tendency to do such things :)

@native, well said :)

it makes plenty of sense

To all nadal fans: maybe monfils and nadal will meet in the AO. We know the result won't be quite the same.

Aces should be banned from tennis, they constitute an unfair advantage.............................

rafaisthebest , 1/8/12 4:24 PM


My very thought, especially as it's due to being way above average height and not skill. I'm pleased that Isner and Raonic are both seeded so at least Rafa won't have to play either of them in the first round like he had to play Isner in the French Open, although that didn't stop him taking the title for the 6th time.

yeah yeah predicting a routine win was a fantastic prediction,no? at least i admitted that the use of the word absurd was not appropriated and it exagerated what i meant to say but here some one is not even ready to admit what he is supposed to .admit it or not, ITS QUITE OBVIOUS

If Rafa and Monfils meet in the AO, it will be a different situation. Taking Rafa out in three sets is doable.. Taking Rafa out at a slam in five sets is a whole other matter entirely.

vamosrafa,

Don't be upset. You said what you believed and felt and even backed off a little on the use of the word "absurd". That was honest and showed that it's not about ego where you are concerned. It's unfortunate that sometimes what people say, what they predict, is taken so seriously and thrown in their faces when it is wrong.

We should all feel free to make our predictions and those who engage in second guessing after the fact or making fun of someone who was wrong, are the ones who have the problem. It's not a test. You can be right or wrong, but it's all in good fun and shouldn't be taken to heart.

You weren't way off base, considering Rafa's h2h of 8-1 against Monfils. But he caught him on a day where he played inspired tennis. He could not replicate that effort against Tsonga, which shows how much it takes out of players to beat Rafa. So keep on making your predictions and just ignore anyone who tries to embarrass you if you happen to be wrong! :)

Yep it always happened to Monfils, ie played inspired tennis one day to beat Rafa or Fed and then came out flat the next day and duly lost to another guy of lower rank than Fed or Rafa. Case in point, 2009 Doha, beat Rafa and then fell to Roddick the next day; beat Fed at Paris Masters in 2010 and lost meekly to Sod the next day in the final.

In Kooyong, Fish defeated Raonic 6-1 6-2 and Tomic defeated Berdych 46 63 64. (A big scalp for Tomic). I wish I had seen the Fish/ Raonic match, 6-1 62 is incredible for someone with such a potent serve.

http://www.tennis.com/articles/templates/news.aspx?articleid =15719&zoneid=4

^^^^ It was windy as hell. Maybe that affected Raonic's ball toss.

I didn't even know this Kooyong tournament was in progress. I have to see if the tennis channel will televise any of it. I would love to see that Fish/Raonic match and Tomic/Berdych.

I have seen very little of the players, so I will approach the AO really kind of in the dark. I have heard that Nole looked good in Abu Dhabi and Fed is now practicing again and seems okay. I saw some of Murray and Dolgo. I haven't seen Delpo or Berdych. We know Tsonga is in good form. The challenge for him and Monfils is to stay healthy and free of injuries.

I could see a player having trouble with very windy conditions. Some handle it better than others.