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2011-12-05 21:20:03
Remember those times when people—even so-called tennis “experts”—pronounced the Davis Cup dead? All you had to see was the 2011 final between Argentina and Spain to realize that nothing could be further from the truth.
Juan Martin Del Potro was left in tears not once, but twice. So, too, was the rest of the Argentine squad. As for the triumphant Spaniards, you don’t even see that kind of unbridled joy from players when they win Grand Slam titles. Same goes for Serbia in 2010.
No, the Davis Cup is very much alive. As such, it’s never too early to start thinking about the 2012 competition….
Obviously a lot depends on who will suit up for their respective countries, and those questions are always up in the air—especially in Olympic years such as 2012. We already know Spain will be without Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, and—much less importantly—Feliciano Lopez.
A first-round matchup between the United States and Switzerland hinges on Roger Federer’s participation. If Federer plays, Switzerland is a considerable favorite to avenge its 2009 loss in the USA. If Federer once again stays on the sideline during World Group action, the United States is an overwhelming favorite.
Serbia will need all hands on deck to make its way through a draw that could feature road ties against both the Czech Republic and Argentina. Novak Djokovic and company are faithful Davis Cup participants, but Djokovic completely wore out over the final months of 2011 and—again—2012 is an Olympic year. The world No. 1 may not have enough for Davis Cup next season.
As for hard-luck Argentina, you can just about guarantee everyone will be back for another shot at glory in 2012. David Nalbandian has made no secret that a Davis Cup title is the last big goal for his career. Del Potro gave a heroic effort in Spain and there is no doubt he will return to get over the hump next year.
The Argentines open with a tough road task at Germany, but if they can get through it, the draw could be favorable for them the rest of the way. Depending on how other ties shake up, Argentina has a decent chance of playing the quarters, semis, and the final at home.
Predictions
First round
Spain (home) over Kazakhstan
Russia over Austria (home)
France over Canada (home)
Switzerland (home) over United States
Czech Republic (home) over Italy
Serbia (home) over Sweden
Croatia over Japan (home)
Argentina over Germany (home)
Quarterfinals
Russia (home) over Spain
France (home) over Switzerland
Serbia over Czech Republic (home)
Argentina (home) over Croatia
Semifinals
France (home) over Russia
Argentina (home) over Serbia
Final
Argentina (home) over France
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Ricky, it's a bit too early to make predictions for 2012 as I feel more top players will opt out to concentrate on the olympics. IF all the top players participate (excl. Nadal, Ferrer), then I go along with what you think.
nadline , 12/7/11 8:31 AM
Davis Cup is unpredictable. Unless it's Spain at home. Swiss fortunes will depend on whether Stan the Man shows up or subs in his wimp twin and whether Roger plays on if they win the first round. He's 30 and he's got big ambitions for 2012. DC may have to be sacrificed at some point. While I don't question Delpo's heart and skill, I do question his fitness/health. Should Spain get past a hard court or indoor quarterfinal Nadal may be back - he's already waffling a bit - won't *start* DC next year is his last word and he never plays the quarters, is always too beat up after Wimbly and adding the Olympics won't help with that.
Ramara , 12/9/11 1:05 PM
I don't think any of the big names want to play during an Olympics year, so lthis might be the perfect time for Argentina to go for it. They'll have a fresh start with a new coach and lots of incentive. I'd love to see David and all the Argentinian guys jumping and dancing like the Spaniards of 2011.
Maya , 12/10/11 1:22 AM
My prediction for DC 2012:
Switzerland over Argentina.
Fed wants this and he has done his maths. He will even go as far as persuading Martina Hingis to have a sex-change in time for the DC final, so s/he can play the second rubber, to improve his chances of lifting the trophy.
Vamos Suisse!!!!
rafaisthebest , 12/10/11 1:19 PM
Spain will make it to the final even without Rafa and David. They beat Argentina without Nadal in their own home court. The team not only has the superstars, but it is very deep an if other countries see their stars focus on the Olympics, Spain remains the favorite.
grafight , 12/15/11 2:07 AM
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Well, that's a nice analysis. I'm glad you think D-Nal will still be with us; I'd heard rumors he was retiring, and I really didn't think he'd leave without giving CD another shot since they have more than a fighting chance.
It'll be interesting to see how some of these other ties come out ; if Sweden has Soderling back in fighting form I wonder if they'll surprise the Serbians. Didn't their doubles team do pretty well in the Olympics?
mara002 , 12/7/11 5:39 AM