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2011-12-02 16:02:28
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Another long season on the ATP World Tour has come to a merciful end for guys like Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and almost everyone else. Not so for world No. 2 Rafael Nadal and London semifinalist David Ferrer.
Nadal and Ferrer will take the court for one more weekend in 2011 as they battle Argentina for the Davis Cup title. The host Spaniards are heavily favored with home-court advantage on the clay courts of Seville, but Juan Martin Del Potro and David Nalbandian are desperate to give their country its first Davis Cup triumph.
Argentina vs. Spain
Where: Seville, Spain
Surface: Indoor clay
Argentina: Juan Martin Del Potro, Juan Monaco, David Nalbandian, Eduardo Schwank
Spain: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco
Draw
Juan Monaco vs. Rafael Nadal
Juan Martin Del Potro vs. David Ferrer
David Nalbandian and Eduardo Schwank vs. Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco
Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Rafael Nadal
Juan Monaco vs. David Ferrer
How they got here
Argentina
d. Romania 3-0 in Buenos Aires, Argentina
d. Kazakhstan 3-0 in Buenos Aires, Argentina
d. Serbia 3-1 in Belgrade, Serbia
Spain
d. Belgium 3-0 in Charleroi, Belgium
d. United States 3-1 in Houston, Texas
d. France 3-1 in Cordoba, Spain
Analysis
Nadal did not look great at the World Tour Finals, but does he ever? No. Remember 2009. Nadal looked even worse in London, getting straight-setted in all three of his round-robin matches. One week later, he destroyed Tomas Berdych en route to Spain capturing the Davis Cup title.
More of the same can be expected this time. The world No. 2 is not going to lose at home on clay, so go ahead and chalk up two points for Spain (Nadal vs. Monaco and Nadal vs. Del Potro). That means Argentina has to beat Ferrer twice and take the doubles point.
Winning the dubs is a real possibility for the Argentines.
As for Lopez and Verdasco, they have been unbelievably bad in 2011. Literally, it is hard to believe when you look at their record. They have lost seven matches in a row and they are 2-10 for the season. In the Davis Cup semifinals at home in Cordoba, Lopez and Verdasco got blown out by France’s Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Michael Llodra 6-0, 6-2, 6-1.
If Del Potro can beat Ferrer on Monday (and that is a huge “if”), Argentina should be able to extend the tie to a decisive fifth rubber. Ferrer would be a considerable favorite, but who knows how much he will have left in the tank or how he will handle the pressue.
In other words, it is not beyond reason to argue that Argentina has a chance. But Spain has a decisive edge.
Predictions
Nadal over Monaco in 3
Ferrer over Del Potro in 5
Nalbandian/Schwank over Lopez/Verdasco in 4
Nadal over Del Potro in 4 (if necessary)
Ferrer over Monaco or Nalbandian in 4 (if necessary)
Spain 3, Argentina 1
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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nadline,
Yes, Ricky has been quite accurate in his predictions. I am especially impressed with that prediction of Ferrer over Delpo in five. Nice job! However, Ricky have the Spanish doubles team more credit than they deserved. It was an embarrassing display. Not a good effort. Now it will be up to Rafa again to carry Spain's hopes for a DC. I really hoped he would not have to play again.
I wonder how Delpo will be ready after that exhausting five setter against Ferrer. Playing either Ferrer or Rafa is a task on clay. I don't envy him.
Nativenewyorker , 12/4/11 3:21 AM
Let's hope a win to secure the DC, and the crowd and his team-mates behind him will give Rafa the confidence boost he needs for the 2012 campaign...............
Believe, Rafa, believe...........................
Vamos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rafaisthebest , 12/4/11 12:05 PM
your welcome for those predictions. ON THE MONEY.
(other than giving Lopez and Verdasco way too much credit in the form of one set).
RickyDimon , 12/4/11 8:30 PM
Ricky, very impressive indeed. Where did you get yur crystal ball, I want one.
nadline , 12/4/11 10:10 PM
Ricky, you did ... pretty darn well with this.
Do we have to buy you wine, or something? :-)
With Rafa focusing on the Olympics 2012, do you have thoughts on how Argentina might do in CD next year?
mara002 , 12/5/11 1:46 AM
haven't looked at the home-away scenarios in 2012 yet. Once i do, I may blog some predictions.
Argentina doesn't really have to worry about Spain (even WITH Nadal) in 2012 since it would be in Argentina.
RickyDimon , 12/5/11 3:30 AM
Yes I hope Argentina wins the DC next year. I really want to see Nalby (and Delpo) hoisting that Cup, before Nalby retires from tennis. Too bad they're playing against Spain this year, how can I root against Rafa and his Spain, when Rafa needs this win badly to regain his confidence in his game.
Other than the Spanish team, the Serbian team is another formidable team, with Nole heading
that team. Maybe Argentina can concentrate on DC next year while the rest concentrate on the Olympics. The Olympics is on grass next year, I don't think both Nalby and Delpo have much chances there so might as well concentrate on the DC.
luckystar , 12/5/11 4:25 AM
"Argentina doesn't really have to worry about Spain (even WITH Nadal) in 2012 since it would be in Argentina."
See ... I don't know about that. The last time those two teams met, weren't they in Mar del Plata in 2008? On hardcourt? Without Rafa? And didn't Spain win anyway? That's what I remember.
But obviously I look forward to your predictions, whatever they may be.
mara002 , 12/5/11 5:16 AM
Spain is on the other side of the 2012 draw AND Argentina would play them at home (with a much-improved Del Potro from 2008), so Argentina has no reason to go into 2012 worrying about Spain.
AT Germany is a very tough matchup and will require every ounce of their focus.
RickyDimon , 12/5/11 4:52 PM
Who cares about DC 2012, Delpo can have that......................we've got bigger fish to fry................Olympic Singles Gold to defend!!!!!!
Vamos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rafaisthebest , 12/5/11 4:58 PM
Sun 20/05 03:13
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Mon 14/05 03:45
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Sun 06/05 03:03
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Mon 30/04 05:57
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Sat 21/04 19:01
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Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
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Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
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Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
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So far Ricky is only slightly wrong on the doubles prediction. Let's hope he is right on the rest.
nadline , 12/3/11 7:31 PM