2011-10-31 05:54:49
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.
Only four tournaments remain in 2011 and all are huge. Preceding the Paris Masters and the World Tour Finals in London are Basel and Valencia, which wrap up the 500-point season this week. Eight of the top 10 players in the world and 15 of the top 17 are in action (only Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling are absent).
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are taking the court for the first time since Davis Cup while Andy Murray looks to keep up his incredible hot streak. All three are in Basel, while Vienna finalists Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro headline the field in Valencia.
Swiss Indoors Basel
Where: Basel, Switzerland
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 1,838,100 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Roger Federer
Draw analysis: Djokovic could not have asked for a better draw as he returns to action for the home stretch of his unbelievable year. The top-ranked Serb is in a section with three qualifiers and his nearest seed is countryman Viktor Troicki. Most importantly, Federer is in Murray’s half of the bracket.
Fellow London hopefuls (it’s a near certainty that both will qualify) Tomas Berdych and Mardy Fish are on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Berdych faces a potentially difficult opener against Kei Nishikori while Fish begins his campaign against compatriot James Blake before a possible meeting with either Jurgen Melzer or Donald Young.
Federer’s draw is almost as good as Djokovic’s; the only problem is he would run into Murray in the semis instead of the final. The third-seeded Swiss (yep, being the No. 3 seed at a 500-point event is hard to fathom) should sail into the quarters before likely encountering familiar foe Andy Roddick.
Murray’s path looks slightly more troublesome, but it should not matter based on the way he is playing. The world No. 3 starts against Robin Haase, whom he defeated in five sets at the U.S. Open (but Haase has cooled off since). Murray’s quarter of the bracket also includes Stanislas Wawrinka, Ivan Ljubicic, and an in-form Janko Tipsarevic.
First-round upset alert: Marcos Baghdatis over (8) Viktor Troicki. Troicki may still be in the midst of his best season on tour, but it has been getting progressively worse. The Serb finished runner-up in Moscow two weeks ago, but that was his first decent result since the Montreal Masters. Included in this stretch was a 6-3, 6-1 pasting by Baghdatis during the Asian swing in Kuala Lumpur. It should be far more competitive this time, but a drubbing like that is tough to overcome.
A ton of other seeds face difficult openers in Basel. Tipsarevic, who is likely running on fumes, opens with Florian Mayer (the same Mayer who stunned Nadal in Shanghai); Roddick takes on Tommy Haas, who is slowing rounding into form; Fish will have no cakewalk over Blake.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic, Kei Nishikori, Donald Young, Jarkko Nieminen, Florian Mayer
Cold: Viktor Troicki, Xavier Malisse, Jurgen Melzer, Thomaz Bellucci
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych over Mardy Fish, Roger Federer over Andy Roddick, and Andy Murray over Ivan Ljubicic
Semifinals: Djokovic over Berdych and Murray over Federer
Final: Djokovic over Murray
Valencia Open 500
Where: Valencia, Spain
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,019,000 Euros
Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: David Ferrer
Draw analysis: Valencia does not have the top-heavy star power like Basel, but the depth from top to bottom is remarkable. This title will be up for grabs to almost anyone.
Defending champion David Ferrer, who always does well at this tournament, has the good fortune of being in a more friendly top half of the draw. The No. 1 seed’s opener is a tough one—against fellow Spaniard Fernando Verdasco—but it should get easier thereafter. An extremely soft second quarter of the bracket features seeds Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez.
The bottom half is loaded, with Tsonga, Del Potro, and recent Stockholm champion Gael Monfils. Tsonga and Del Potro could be going head-to-head again as early as the quarterfinals, but both will have to play well just to make it that far. Monfils could face either Milos Raonic (who gave him a major scare in Stockholm) or St. Petersburg champ Marin Cilic in the last eight.
First-round upset alert: Alex Bogomolov over (8) Feliciano Lopez. These two faced each other at the Shanghai Masters, where Lopez survived a tough one 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3. Lopez has played just once since then and lost in the first round of a Challenger event to Arnaud Clement (for which he was criticized by none other than Bogomolov). Bogomolov has since reached the Moscow quarters and the St. Petersburg semis. Look for the American to get some revenge in Valencia.
Also watch out for Del Potro against Dmitry Tursunov, Alexandr Dolgopolov against Marcel Granollers, Gilles Simon against Nikolay Davydenko, and Almagro against Juan Monaco.
Hot: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Alex Bogomolov, Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson
Cold: Gilles Simon, Fernando Verdasco, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Nikolay Davydenko, Albert Montanes, Sam Querrey, Ernests Gulbis
Quarterfinal predictions: David Ferrer over Gilles Simon, Alex Bogomolov over Juan Monaco, Gael Monfils over Milos Raonic, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Kevin Anderson
Semifinals: Ferrer over Bogomolov and Monfils over Tsonga
Final: Ferrer over Monfils
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Hope the Andy who turned up against David and Rafa, turns up here. He seems to find Haase and Warinka quite "troublesome", as Ricky said
Come on Andy, time to put the metal to the pedal..(that's 4 u ed...;))
deuce , 10/31/11 10:50 AM
There's another idiom that comes to mind - but it's a case of not in front of the children. lol.
ed251137 , 10/31/11 12:56 PM
Hmm, the one that comes to mind is about chickens and counting...can't be that ....
deuce , 10/31/11 1:19 PM
Bleck always likes to give us his 2 cents on the future like some bargain basement Oracle.
Come on Andy, show him what for!
Its time to drop the debutante act FOREVER!
Sosueme , 10/31/11 1:50 PM
I throw mine using some logic and thought. You just say what comes to your head and it's all wishful thinking obviously.
Yes andy please show me what you're capable of, because unlike sosueme (and some other posters) think I would love to see you beating nadal in GS more often.
Please murray prove me wrong.
Of course like in every discussion when a person feels cornered they resort to personal attacks.
bleck , 10/31/11 2:22 PM
Bleck you are in love with your own percieved ability to be analytical & logical.
It could do with a bit of work in my opinion.
Sosueme , 10/31/11 2:36 PM
I don't really care about your opinion. And coming from you it has no real value.
I remembered you never answered a question I made you in the London Olympic thread.
"Yes, for once I agree with you Bleecchhh!
The WTF is no exho style tournament!"
Sosuemo
, 10/27/11 9:52 PM
Were you talking to me sosuemo?
bleck , 10/31/11 2:43 PM
Just to rectify "And coming from you it has no real value to me."
bleck , 10/31/11 3:07 PM
How fast is Basel. In recent times, Federer has had the better of Murray on the faster surfaces - WTF and Cincy. Though I think it will all come down to form and confidence. Murray might actually win the whole thing.
samprallica , 10/31/11 3:22 PM
I think basel has changed the surface. It hink now the surface is more like the WTF which means it should be slower than the previous one.
bleck , 10/31/11 3:33 PM
The 2 wtf matches were nervous blow outs Samps.
Last time the fed said he was `shocked`by Andy's performance.
He couldnt handle the pressure of being a narrow favourite!
But for sure, the faster courts benefit Roger slightly.
Sosueme , 10/31/11 3:34 PM
Oh & yes I was referring to you Blech.
I don't always read your posts so I didnt answer you then.
It was a little joke, forget it.
If i upset you....I apologise!
(See Cheryl are you watching?)
Sosueme , 10/31/11 3:46 PM
Yeah I knew. Did you note the "o" instead of the "e" as in sosuemo (emo).
Just thought I should return the favor (joke). lol
bleck , 10/31/11 3:56 PM
If AndyM can carry forward the momentum of the asian swing (knowing Andy it could be a big IF) and remain mentally focused there is no reason why he can`t take this one. Wish he wasn`t playing the doubles though, thinkl he`s spread too thin in terms of mental/physical fatigue though this decision in its entirety probably isn`t down to AndyM as Adidas will want a return on their investment.
mojo , 10/31/11 7:38 PM
I like you AndyMurray fans.
You can blow hot and cold. Youcanrip one and catch one or two uppercuts in the face/ Much better then the emotional Djokerfans. and of course the without humor operating two faced Nadaninos. They really are so serious and they can only give an counterargument by attacking Fed.
Prop got something to do with scotland. Scots are very well liked in holland.
Sienna , 10/31/11 9:03 PM
Well, coming from a so-called Nadanino who is so serious and can only give a counter argument attack Fed, I am really looking forward to this. Obviously, Ricky feels that Andy's recent great form will give him the advantage over Fed in the semis. Nole does seem to have a great draw. I am really anxious to see how Fed and Nole look after their layoff. That will tell us a good deal. We know where Andy is now. The question is - can he keep it up? I have to believe that if he is playing both singles and doubles, then it's because he feels fit enough to do it.
We will see if the seeds hold or if there will be a surprise along the way.
Nativenewyorker , 10/31/11 10:06 PM
OMG Muzza is not playing tomorrow? Have they not learnt with the US Open? It is not allowed to let Muzza get going on the third day of the championship.
of course it is because the suisse are .....
No not the Muzza fans they are so HIGH on confodence he beats Fed with 1 arm on his back and then doubles up against the Djoker.
WOW TIMES THEY ARE A CHANGING!
Sienna , 10/31/11 11:59 PM
lol Sienna, I don't know where you've found those Murray fans! The ones I know have spent their lives hiding behind the sofa so we never get a sun tan, permanently twitch and sob and feel sick whenever Andy takes to the court.......Apart from that of course, we're a very cheerful, happy bunch.....;)
deuce , 11/1/11 7:17 AM
And there are those of us who worship Nadal and also love Andy. And vice versa.
BTW Deuce, when does that stretch limousine you ordered arrive?
ed251137 , 11/1/11 10:02 AM
Good lord, ed, u must be mistaken, a stretch limo far too posh for lovers of Andy! Am busy looking into ex route -masters. Fun, cheap, brassy, noisy.... oooer now feeling pain of bullet in foot......
deuce , 11/1/11 12:04 PM
You're right. A stretch limo would be a tad too ostentatious at the moment. Perhaps when the great day arrives (if you know what I mean ;-) you should have one for VIP guests and keep the route-master for the 2nd class fans.
ed251137 , 11/1/11 1:11 PM
Well Deuce just put ur feet up, fasten ur seat belt and enjoy the ride. Or should that be endure? Thats down to Andy.
Sienna, sense of humours a must for us Andy fans, qualification for the fan club :)
mojo , 11/1/11 1:42 PM
Ferrer off to a convincing start. Although a win over Verdasco doesn't mean much.
RickyDimon , 11/1/11 4:59 PM
mojo, just put my feet on the dashboard but...yikes who is now driving ?????
deuce , 11/1/11 6:03 PM
If Ferrer had any difficulty beating Verdasco, then I would be worried about him. This was to be expected.
Nativenewyorker , 11/1/11 8:13 PM
Federer will win basel sienna. Here, let's go again! It's so good to see him back!
Fleur , 11/1/11 8:48 PM
Woooow... so Andy again two days later than homeboy.... this is ridiculous???
But that won't help.... Andy will go to finale this year...
I would prefer Fed... after his match with Staracce... but Andy in finale... on such fast court... everything is possible...
Like I have said... same old song.... fixing the schedule... on and on :)))
zare , 11/1/11 9:40 PM
HAHA The proof of my statement is in Zare's response.
The pod is still in good ol US of A.... That might be the reason Djoker is having trouble with the big fat belgium. Even Cheryl had problems with his weight on the other thread(kidding) But Djoker just scraped through.
Maybe the organisers can schedule the double matches on saturday morning....
Sienna , 11/1/11 11:19 PM
Deuce, well it would be good if Andy were in the driving seat in Basel but looking at his side of the draw there could be a few speed bumps along the way.
Sienna, Djoko rusty after his injury time? That should have been a warm up for him.
mojo , 11/1/11 11:43 PM
such a strong field at basel, already turned out as a cupcake draw for djokovic.... looks like he needs it...
croc , 11/2/11 11:40 AM
Murray has withdrawn form Basel. lol
So much talk about him coming to Basel to play with the big boys and now this.
bleck , 11/2/11 4:00 PM
Im not at home just now so having difficulty finding anything out. Why has AndyM withdrawn!
mojo , 11/2/11 4:29 PM
'Andy Murray withdrew from the Swiss Indoors on Wednesday shortly before his match with Dutchman Robin Haase with a right gluteal muscle strain.'
ed251137 , 11/2/11 4:32 PM
posted this in another thread but think it was a bit off topic.
The strong field of Basel doesn't look so strong after the frist round. Murray 2nd seed, Berdych 4th seed, Fish 5th seed, Tipsarevic 6th seed, Troicki 8th seed are all out. 5 of the top 8 seeds are out.
We might as well skip all the tournament rounds to the final: Federer vs Djokovic!!!
bleck , 11/2/11 4:41 PM
Jus thought of something, imagine that federer and djokovic had been drawn in the same half. With murray withdrawing we could have a djokovic-federer semi and then a much less interesting final. Thank God federer and djokovic ended up in separate halfs or else the semis would be the match of the tournament with much less interest in the finals.
bleck , 11/2/11 4:47 PM
If Djokovic doesn't pull is socks up from yesterday's level we might just as well skip straight to the Presentation ceremony. lol.
ed251137 , 11/2/11 4:53 PM
ed, I would welcome that. LOL
bleck , 11/2/11 4:57 PM
Im keeping everything crossed AndyM's 100% fit for London. Hopefully he's been cautious in withdrawing from Basel giving himself a chance to recover in plenty of time.
mojo , 11/2/11 5:43 PM
I'm sure it was precautionary. He has taken note of what happened when under DC pressure Djokovic played with a slight injury which turned into something more serious.
ed251137 , 11/2/11 6:28 PM
good thing Federer was in Murray's half
RickyDimon , 11/2/11 7:49 PM
So Ricky, your finals prediction is now Djokovic over Federer? If so, I disagree. He will not even reach the finals.
phoenix , 11/3/11 12:46 PM
He who? Djokovic? lol
bleck , 11/3/11 12:56 PM
come on bleck, i know you know who i meant. :-)
phoenix , 11/3/11 1:05 PM
Federer will win.
Fleur , 11/3/11 11:30 PM
ed, I hope you are right, I wait with baited breath.
mojo , 11/3/11 11:52 PM
Wow, Nishilori`s giving Djoko a run for his money here!
mojo , 11/5/11 4:15 PM
Typo, lol!
mojo , 11/5/11 4:21 PM
Title of this article is now defunct :(
deuce , 11/5/11 5:17 PM
Nishi is gaining confidence week by week. He has great court sense and a high tennis IQ but he I reckon he lacks the big occasion confidence required to bother TMF. Besides which his first serve% would need to be a lot better than it was today.
Pleased for this win for him but a bit disappointed it won't be a Fedak final
ed251137 , 11/5/11 5:26 PM
Who was it who said Ferrer was on his way to #4? More like the other direction.:)
numero , 11/6/11 12:02 AM
numero, There were some posters who were already predicting Roger to fall from #4. What they forget is that there is no player with the consistency of the top 4. Ferrer, del potro are way too inconsistent. Soderling is sick. Roger will be in the top 4 for much time to come. Roger may even get back to #3 in 2012 if he has a strong end of 2011.
It was obviously wishful thinking by some fed haters. But oh well they'll have to wait some more years before that happens.
bleck , 11/6/11 1:55 PM
There is an article in our press this weekend. Fed blasts Scot over schedule moans.
Rodger Federer has has told Andy Murray to stop whinning about his schedule after he pulled out of Basel. Fed is quoted as saying "If it had been the quarter finals at Wimbledon would Murray have played then?" Now whilst I don`t beleive all I read
AndyM`s not the only top player who`s been complaining and he hasn`t been as vocal as others. Has Fed ever been seen to be as openly critical of Nadals decisions?
mojo , 11/6/11 4:00 PM
Got to ask Fed himself that question, mojo. We can't answer for him.
luckystar , 11/7/11 3:13 AM
Luckystar, the Goat got on my goat yesterday when I read the article, lol. If he ever has been as openly critical of Nadals decisions I haven`t read or heard anything.
mojo , 11/7/11 8:24 PM
Sun 20/05 03:13
Rome final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
Approach Shots: Nadal, Murray return to action in Barcelona
Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
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I'll throw my 2 cents. Basically I agree with Ricky until the semis. In the semis it will be Djokovic and Federer that will come out victorious in my opinion. It's the final most people want to see and I think we'll get it.
As for the tournament winner I will have to watch Roger and djokovic play some matches before making my prediction.
Good luck Roger :)
bleck , 10/31/11 9:17 AM