Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Double-500 week brings Nadal back to the court

  2011-10-03 03:02:06
  

  "Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.

   

  Even with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer out of action, this week of two 500-point tournaments features stellar fields at the Japan and China Opens.
  
  Rafael Nadal, heading to Tokyo, is playing his first tournament since losing to Djokovic in a tough U.S. Open final. The second-ranked Spaniard is joined by Bangkok champion Andy Murray, Kuala Lumpur winner Janko Tipsarevic, David Ferrer, Mardy Fish, David Nalbandian, and Milos Raonic.

   

  Beijing lost Djokovic and Soderling to withdrawal, meaning the title is absolutely up for grabs to a field that remains impressive. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga leads the way, followed by other contenders including Gael Monfils, Tomas Berdych, Gilles Simon, Andy Roddick, and John Isner.

   

  Rakuten Japan Open
  
  Where: Tokyo, Japan
  Surface: Hard
  Prize money: $1,214,500
  Points: 500

   

  Top seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

   

  Draw analysis:  Nadal is ready to go for the fall swing and he should have not any trouble getting his feet wet on the Asian hard courts against Japanese wild card Go Soeda. All in all, though, Nadal could have a tough draw if a few puzzle pieces fall into place.
  
  But that’s a big “if.” Potential second-round opponent Milos Raonic, a terror to play because of his big serve, has contested only one match since Wimbledon due to injury. That was a Davis Cup upset loss to Amir Weintraub, so it’s hard to imagine Raonic being the danger he normally would be. Tipsarevic is on fire and he is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Nadal, but the Serb is coming off a long week at the Malaysian Open.
  
  Fish should be able to take care of business in a second section of the bracket peppered with inconsistent talent. Ernests Gulbis has been up and down—as usual—in 2011, Bernard Tomic seems to have cooled off post-Wimbledon, and Viktor Troicki is mired in a slump.
  
  An interesting first-round matchup at the bottom of the draw pits two of last week’s finalists against each other—Murray and Baghdatis. Murray will likely make a run to another final, but if he stumbles early then someone like David Ferrer or David Nalbandian could be the beneficiary.

   

  First-round upset alert: Bernard Tomic over (5) Viktor Troicki. Tomic and Troicki squared off earlier this season in Indian Wells and the favorite prevailed 6-4, 6-4, but Tomic has gotten progressively better since then and Troicki has gotten progressively worse. The Serb endured an awful summer and even though he advanced two rounds in Kuala Lumpur, he did not look good in either win and proceeded to get annihilated by Baghdatis. Tomic, a Wimbledon quarterfinalist, will be looking to recover his form after getting blown out by Flavio Cipolla in the Kuala Lumpur first round.
  
  Plenty of other seeds could be in danger right away, as well. Tipsarevic, who has to be physically and emotionally drained after last week, faces a tough hard-court opponent in Tursunov. Fish, playing his first match since the U.S. Open, is up against a countryman and familiar foe in Harrison. Ferrer (Kei Nishikori), Radek Stepanek (Somdev Devvarman), and Juan Monaco (Ivan Dodig) all have tough challenges looming in round one.

   

  Hot: Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Mardy Fish, Janko Tipsarevic, Robin Haase, Alex Bogomolov, Marcos Baghdatis, Pablo Andujar

   

  Cold: Viktor Troicki, Milos Raonic, Lukasz Kubot, Somdev Devvarman

   

  Semifinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Mardy Fish and Andy Murray over David Ferrer

   

  Final: Nadal over Murray

   

  China Open
  

   

  Where: Beijing, China
  Surface: Hard
  Prize money: $2,100,000
  Points: 500

   

  Top seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  2010 champion: Novak Djokovic (not playing)

   

  Draw analysis: Djokovic’s withdrawal is not any fun for tournament organizers, but one positive thing it does is it makes the title completely wide open. Tsonga, a recent champion in Metz, has to be the favorite despite a difficult draw. The top-seeded Frenchman opens against talented up-and-comer Grigor Dimitrov before a possible quarterfinal showdown with Simon.
  
  Tsonga and Simon would be a matchup well-suited for a final with the way both Frenchmen are playing, but the rest of the field won’t complain that at least one will be out prior to the semis. That includes a second section of the bracket featuring Berdych and Alexandr Dolgopolov. Berdych faces a tough opener in the form of Jurgen Melzer while Dolgopolov could get Fernando Verdasco in round two.
  
  Parity is the word that comes to mind in a deep bottom half of the draw, where at least 10 players have realistic shots at the title or at least a final. Six of those contenders will face each other in round one—Isner against Ivan Ljubicic, Roddick against Kevin Anderson, and Nicolas Almagro against Mikhail Youzhny.

   

  First-round upset alert: Ivan Ljubicic over (7) John Isner. Current form clearly favors Isner in this blockbuster opener between two huge servers. The 6’9’’ American had an awesome summer and is up to No. 18 in the world. Ljubicic seemed to have fallen off the map, but he reached the Metz final two weeks ago on indoor hard courts, his favorite track. The veteran Croat may have even been favored here if it, too, was held indoors. Still, at least it’s not being played on Isner’s stomping grounds of American hard courts. Expect whichever player fires more aces and wins more free points on serve to advance.
  
  Also watch out for Mikhail Youzhny against Almagro and Cipolla against Dolgopolov. Youzhny has been slumping, but Almagro is not exactly playing lights-out tennis at the moment. Cipolla and Dolgopolov faced each other at the U.S. Open, where Dolgpolov won the last five games of the match to erase a 4-1 fifth-set deficit.

   

  Hot: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, John Isner, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Florian Mayer, Kevin Anderson

   

  Cold: Jurgen Melzer, Tommy Robredo, Mikhail Youzhny, Albert Montanes

   

  Semifinal predictions: Gilles Simon over Tomas Berdych and Andy Roddick over Feliciano Lopez

   

  Final: Roddick over Simon

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

   

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