Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: ATP fall schedule begins in Metz, Bucharest

  2011-09-19 20:30:07
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour.

   

  The Grand Slam season is over and Davis Cup is on a two-month hiatus until the final between Spain and Argentina, but the ATP schedule is still going strong. It resumes this week on two different surfaces, with clay-court specialists getting one more shot at glory in 2011 in Bucharest, Romania. The indoor hard-court swing, meanwhile, begins with an impressive field for a 250-point in Metz, France.

   

  Moselle Open
  

   

  Where: Metz, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  2010 champion: Gilles Simon (not playing)

   

  Draw analysis: Three top 20 players are on hand for the fall indoor season-opener, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, and Alexandr Dolgopolov resume what has been a stellar 2011 campaign for all three.

   

  Coming off a Davis Cup semifinal loss to Spain, Tsonga and Gasquet are on a collision course for the Metz final as the top two seeds in the field. Tsonga is the title favorite, but Gasquet has a more favorable draw in the bottom half of the bracket.
  
  Tsonga, the No. 10 player in the world, could face Michael Llodra in the quarterfinals before a potential semifinal showdown against either Dolgopolov or Marcos Baghdatis. Other contenders in the top half include Xavier Malisse and Nicolas Mahut. One opening-round matchup to watch is Llodra against occasional doubles partner Arnaud Clement.
  
  Gasquet is looking good in the bottom section, at least on paper. His nearest seeds are Gilles Muller, Ivan Ljubicic, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. The 15^th-ranked Frenchman’s toughest potential opponent could be Muller, who is in fine form coming off a fourth-round showing at the U.S. Open but far from daunting. Neither Ljubicic nor Kohlschreiber is playing particularly well at the moment, so unseeded threats such as Grigor Dimitrov or Philipp Petzschner have a real opportunity in Metz.
  
  First-round upset alert: (WC) Arnaud Clement over (5) Michael Llodra. Llodra is a considerable favorite in this one, especially indoors. Somewhat surprisingly, however, Clement is a perfect 3-0 in the head-to-head series against his occasional doubles partner. They faced each other in the opening round of this same event eight years ago (granted, that does not mean much now) and Clement prevailed in straight sets. The veteran wild card is not playing great at the moment, but Llodra will have to recover from getting absolutely blown out in the second round of the U.S. Open by Kevin Anderson.

   

  Hot: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Gilles Muller, Igor Kunitsyn

   

  Cold: Ivan Ljubicic, Xavier Malisse, Arnaud Clement, Michael Berrer, Andrey Golubev

   

  Semifinal predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Alexandr Dolgpolov and Richard Gasquet over Grigor Dimitrov

   

  Final: Tsonga over Gasquet
  
  BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy
  

   

  Where: Bucharest, Romania
  Surface: Clay
  Prize money: 422,950 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top seed: Juan Ignacio Chela
  Defending champion: Juan Ignacio Chela

   

  Draw analysis: At 32 years old, Chela is in the midst of a resurgent year on the ATP Tour. In fact, the veteran is back up to No. 23 in the world—just eight spots off a career-high ranking that he reached in 2004.
  
  Chela has a good chance of keeping his hot streak going, as he gets to play one more tournament on clay this week—and he just so happens to be the defending champion. The Argentine also has a favorable draw with three qualifiers in the top quarter of the bracket. Chela may have to get past Andreas Seppi in the quarters and 2010 runner-up Pablo Andujar in the semis in order to make a repeat appearance in Sunday’s final.
  
  The bottom half of the bracket is wide open for just about anyone. Florian Mayer is the No. 2 seed but is by no means a clay-court specialist. Third-seeded Marcel Granollers will be looking to recover from a back injury that forced him out of a third-round match at the U.S. Open.
  
  As a result, the door could be open for a host of other contenders. Filippo Volandri is dreadful on every other surface, but the Italian is always a threat on clay. Victor Hansecu has enjoyed success on the slow stuff in the past and he is playing at home in Romania. Carlos Berlocq is in the midst of his best season on tour and he could get a shot at Mayer in round two.

   

  First-round upset alert: Pere Riba over (6) Potito Starace. The edge in current form goes to Starace, who is far more experienced than his opponent at the ATP level, but head-to-head history suggests this one could be close. Starace won their first-ever encounter 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 last year in Hamburg. This spring in Monte-Carlo, Riba got revenge with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory.

   

  Hot: Juan Ignacio Chela, Florian Mayer, Pablo Andujar

   

  Cold: Albert Montanes, Tommy Robredo, Jeremy Chardy, Pere Riba, Victor Hanescu

   

  Semifinal predictions: Juan Ignacio Chela over Albert Montanes and Potito Starace over Filippo Volandri

   

  Final: Chela over Starace

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

   

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