Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Fish leads American charge at U.S. Open

  2011-08-26 18:47:00
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead on the ATP Tour. This is the fourth of Ricky’s five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
  
  Part 1: Top 25 contenders, part 1
  Part 2: Top 25 contenders, part 2
  Part 3: Draw analysis
  Part 4: Weekly “Approach Shots”
  Part 5: Full tournament predictions
  
  U.S. Open
  

   

  Where: Flushing, New York
  Surface: Hard
  Prize money: $8,468,000
  Points: 2000

   

  Top seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

   

  First-round upset alerts
  
  Julien Benneteau over (10) Nicolas Almagro – Benneteau qualified for the Cincinnati main draw, advanced one round, and now finds himself in the Winston-Salem semifinals. Almagro is one of the better Spanish hard-court players, but he is far from unbeatable.
  
  Ernests Gulbis over (16) Mikhail Youzhny – Gulbis has lost in the first round of his last seven Grand Slam appearances. This could be the Latvian’s time to get over the hump because he is playing well this summer and Youzhny is in lackluster form.
  
  Philipp Kohlschreiber over (23) Radek Stepanek – Stepanek won a surprise title in Washington and reached the third round in Cincinnati—that’s how he snagged a U.S. Open seed. Kohlschreiber also played his way into round three in Cincy. This is pretty much a toss-up.
  
  Marinko Matosevic over (24) Juan Ignacio Chela – First Matosevic got into the main draw when the Australian federation gave him Lleyton Hewitt’s wild card. Then he landed in the section inhabited by the softest of all the 32 seeds (Chela). On hard courts, Matosevic has a real chance in this one.
  
  Ryan Harrison over (27) Marin Cilic – Get your popcorn ready for this one; two big games, two impressive talents, but also two players from whom you do not know what to expect at any moment. With Harrison in better form that Cilic and at the scene of his favorite tournament, this has serious upset potential.

   

  Marcos Baghdatis over (28) John Isner – How hard is it to beat the same opponent three times in four weeks (when you are close to evenly-matched)? Isner is about to find out. He got the best of Baghdatis in Montreal and on Thursday in Winston-Salem, but the Cypriot made their most recent encounter extremely interesting.

   

  Hot

   

  Novak Djokovic – Djokovic is a hard-to-believe 57-2 with nine titles this season. Only his shoulder issue could slow him in New York.

   

  Andy Murray – Up and down and up and down and up and down…and back up again. Murray triumphed in Cincy to give himself some much-needed momentum heading into the U.S. Open.

   

  Gael Monfils – Monfils is flying under the radar, but perhaps it’s time to take notice. He has reached at least the quarterfinals of his last four events, including a final in Washington and QFs in Montreal and Cincinnati.

   

  Mardy Fish – As if Fish’s 2010 summer was not enough, he came back out this time and won the U.S. Open Series. Results include a title in Atlanta, finals in Los Angeles and Montreal, and a semifinal in Cincinnati.

   

  Tomas Berdych – Berdych reached the Montreal quarters and the Cincinnati semis. In the process, he sent a message to the rest of the field by overpowering Federer.

   

  Others: Gilles Simon , Janko Tipsarevic, Radek Stepanek, Kevin Anderson, Alex Bogomolov, Robin Haase

   

  Cold
  
  Robin Soderling – Soderling is an awesome 38-9 this season and captured the Bastad title in his last appearance. So why is he cold? Well, he has not played since early July due to a wrist injury.
  
  Jurgen Melzer – This time last year, Melzer was on fire. In 2011, though, he did not win a single U.S. Open Series match. The Austrian retired with a quadriceps injury in Washington, pulled out of Montreal, and lost his opener in Cincinnati.
  
  Ivan Ljubicic – Although he is still ranked No. 31 in the world, Ljubicic is starting to slow down at 32 years old. The Croat has not made an appearance since Umag, meaning he has not played a hard-court match since March and has not won a hard-court match since Marseille in February.
  
  Andrey Golubev – Talk about adding insult to injury! Golubev went on a losing streak for the ages and now he has to play Nadal in the first round.
  
  Others: Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez, Tommy Haas

   

  Potential surprises
  
  Philipp Petzschner – Petzschner blows hot and cold, and when he’s playing well, he can play really well. The German, who looked good in Montreal, is part of an eighth of the draw in which nobody is unbeatable.
  
  Tommy Haas – Once as high as No. 2 in the world, Haas is now No. 477 due to injury. His results have been dismal this summer, but he has been competitive in matches and his health looks decent. Haas has a great draw, beginning with a qualifier and possibly ending with a fourth-round match against Federer.
  
  John Isner – Isner won’t like having to play Baghdatis again in the first round, but he caught a break with Soderling as his nearest Top 8 seed. The 6’9’’ American has a good chance of making it to the second week and possibly to the quarterfinals.
  
  Dmitry Tursunov – Returning from injury, Tursunov has not done anything special this season (aside from a title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch). But his U.S. Open draw is absolutely amazing; the Russian’s two nearest seeds are Chela and Stanislas Wawrinka. Say hello to the fourth round.
  
  James Blake – Blake is back up to No. 63 in the world thanks to third-round showings in Washington and Cincinnati. Suddenly armed with some semblance of momentum, Blake could actually make it to the second week in New York. A rusty David Ferrer stands in his way, but that’s about it.
  
  Andy Roddick – This was the first time in ages that Roddick was at the mercy of the U.S. Open draw (as the No. 21 seed), but no matter. He has an incredible one. Roddick will cruise into round three, his closest seed is Almagro, and even Nadal is beatable on a fast hard court.

   

  Gilles Muller – Muller is no stranger to the bright lights of the U.S. Open. In his first appearance in 2005, the Luxembourgian stunned Roddick in the first round. In his most recent trip to New York (2008), Muller qualified for the main draw and went all the way to the quarterfinals. With a nice draw, Muller could make some more noise and become Nadal’s fourth-round opponent.

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

   

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