2011-08-24 21:34:19
This is the second of Ricky's five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
Part 1: Top 25 contenders, part 1
Part 2: Top 25 contenders, part 2
Part 3: Draw analysis
Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
Part 5: Full tournament predictions
13. John Isner – Isner tells anyone who will listen that summer is his favorite time of year, and the results speak for themselves in 2011. The 6’9’’ American won the Newport title then kicked off his U.S. Open Series with a runner-up showing in Atlanta a semifinal appearance in Washington. He was hobbled with a bad ankle at last season’s U.S. Open and that contributed to a third-round loss to Mikhail Youzhny, but Isner has a good shot at making it to the second week this time around.
12. Richard Gasquet – Gasquet is quietly piecing together an impressive 2011 campaign; “quietly” because he has no titles or truly defining victories, but consistent if nothing else. The Frenchman is 31-15 for the season and he has reached at least the third round of all three Grand Slams, including round four at the French Open at Wimbledon. Gasquet continues to play well at the moment (third-round appearances in both Montreal and Cincinnati), so an early loss in New York would be a real surprise.
11. Gilles Simon – It does not get much more solid than Gilles Simon. He is a human backboard and while he certainly knows how to “push,” he also knows how to pull the trigger at all the right times. One-hundred percent healthy this season for the first time in a while, Simon is 33-19 and in World Tour Finals contention. The Frenchman won a 500-point title in Hamburg last month and recently advanced to the Cincinnati quarterfinals. His first trip past round three at Flushing Meadows is almost a lock.
10. David Ferrer – Is there a bigger fighter on tour than David Ferrer? He has always displayed his determination on the court, and now he has done the same off the court. Ferrer had been questionable for the Open with a minor wrist fracture, but he instead returned in time for Cincinnati—where he beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-5 in the third before extending Simon past the three-hour mark. If not for rust due to injury, Ferrer would have a quarterfinal appearance written all over him.
9. Gael Monfils – Monfils is something of an enigma on tour; he has the talent to win slams but often seems more worried about putting on a good show for the fans than putting all of his talent together. Nevertheless, the Frenchman is in fine form at the moment. He has reached at least the quarterfinals of his last four events (Hamburg, Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati), including a runner-up finish in Washington. Monfils will be a Top 8 seed at the Open, so another quarterfinal is possible.
8. Juan Martin Del Potro – Thank goodness for the top players that Del Potro played his way into a seeded spot for the U.S. Open. The bad news for both the rest of the field and Del Potro himself, however, is that he is not quite a Top 16 seed (he is 18th). Thus, the Argentine will likely have a tough third-round test on his hands before a possible fourth-round clash against one of the big guns. Del Potro is not back to his 2009 form when he won the U.S. Open, but he can beat anyone on any given day.
7. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Now that Novak Djokovic has question marks and is no longer a mortal lock to win the tournament, approximately eight players have a realistic shot at the title. Tsonga is one of them, as his recent performances at Wimbledon and in Montreal suggest. The Frenchman took down Roger Federer at both events en route to semifinal finishes. Far healthier than he normally is at this time of the year, Tsonga is definitely in line for his best-ever showing in New York.
6. Tomas Berdych – Berdych was one of the casualties during a brutal final weekend in Cincinnati, so he heads into the season’s last Grand Slam with some questions. If the shoulder heals in time, though, there is nothing this “new” Tomas Berdych can’t do. Prior to 2010, he simply could not beat top players; now he can contend with anything in his path. The big-hitting Czech is 39-17 for his 2011 campaign after upsetting Federer on the way to the Cincy semis. Despite the shoulder and just missing out on a Top 8 seed (ninth), a trip to the U.S. Open quarterfinals should be expected.
5. Rafael Nadal – Don’t sleep on Nadal, because he also lost prior to the final in both Canada (to Andy Murray in the Toronto semis) and Cincinnati (to Marcos Baghdatis in the quarters) last year. And, of course, he went on to capture his first U.S. Open title. This time around, though, it just feels different. The Spaniard has burned fingers and shaky confidence—the latter possibly due to Djokovic’s dominance of him in 2011. A repeat in New York appears questionable at best, and Nadal would do well just to reach the semifinals.
4. Mardy Fish – Nobody outside of Djokovic is hotter than Mardy Fish right now, and he has to be considered the U.S. Open’s biggest threat other than the Big 4. Fish is the 2011 U.S. Open Series champ after winning Atlanta, finishing runner-up in Los Angeles and Montreal, and reaching the Cincinnati semis. The resurgent American has been to the quarterfinals in Flushing Meadows once before (2008) and if he can avoid Djokovic’s section of the draw, he should blow that result out of the water.
3. Andy Murray – Murray does not have as much firepower or as much talent as, say, Djokovic and Federer; that’s why he remains slamless. But unlike the rest of the Big 4, he goes into the U.S. Open without any question marks of any kind. Murray’s up-and-down season is back up (he won the Cincinnati title) and he is a former U.S. Open finalist (2008, lost to Federer) so he is no stranger to New York success. If the Scot can keep it together mentally, this could be his time.
2. Roger Federer – Which Federer is going to show up for the Open? Will it be the one who cruised past Del Potro and James Blake in Cincinnati, or will it be the one who lost to Berdych in straight sets just one day later? Likely it will be both, but it will have to be the Federer of old on display during the second week if he wants to win his 17th slam. The bottom line is that if Djokovic is back to 100 percent, Federer’s best is the only thing that can beat him. Not Nadal’s best. Not Murray’s best. Just Federer’s. After all, Djokovic’s only “real” loss of the season came to Federer on Federer’s worst surface (French Open semis).
1. Novak Djokovic – Djokovic was a massive favorite to win the U.S. Open before he took the court last Sunday for the Cincinnati final. He remains the pick to click, but the shoulder obviously throws a wrench into the equation. For now, though, the Serb’s retirement against Murray has to be considered a precautionary tactic until proven otherwise. It cannot overshadow the fact that Djokovic is 57-2 this season and seeking his third Grand Slam title, having already won the Australian Open and Wimbledon.
Tell a friend »
Ricky,
You're going to get pummeled by the Rafanatics for putting Fish ahead of Rafa. Even I think that's a bit of homeboy wishful thinking on your part. Oh, don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Mardy beat Rafa (or advance further than him) in a GS but I doubt he'd be able to hold his nerve even if he plays better than Rafa.
I do completely concur with this part of your assessment however :
"The bottom line is that if Djokovic is back to 100 percent, Federer?s best is the only thing that can beat him. Not Nadal?s best. Not Murray?s best. Just Federer?s. After all, Djokovic?s only ?real? loss of the season came to Federer on Federer?s worst surface (French Open semis)."
Well said Ricky! Very well said indeed!
numero , 8/25/11 3:47 AM
I think Murray has a good chance against Nole, whether Nole is 100% or not. Murray already pushed Nole close on Murray's worst surface, ie clay. Murray can simply live with Nole from the baseline and match him shot for shot, but Murray can vary his game to make things difficult for Nole. I think other than Fed at his best, Murray also has a good chance of beating Nole when Murray is playing at his best level.
luckystar , 8/25/11 7:07 AM
lucky,
I agree with you about Murray's chances against Nole. However, the key for Murray when it comes to slams, is the mental toughness. We know now that Nole has it, but will Murray show it this year when it counts the most. Murray has beaten Fed at Masters tournaments, but then couldn't get the job done in the slams. I am sure he is aware of this and also aware that he has not done well at the USO in the last two years.
Ricky believes that only Fed can take out Nole. I am not sure that I agree with that. He is basing that on the fact that Fed already has beaten Nole on clay. However, Fed had to play his best match of the year to do it. Fed has to get there to meet Nole, so we will see. I do think Murray has a shot at beating Nole, but he will need to bring his best and stay mentally strong.
Nativenewyorker , 8/25/11 8:25 AM
Something tells me we are in for a surprise :)
isabeau77 , 8/25/11 8:57 AM
Murray had reached two SFs in the slams this year, losing only to Rafa; and he had reached a hard court slam final, at the AO this year. There's no resason to believe that he'll fail to reach the SF this time at the USO. His performances in the slams this year are impressive, even better than Fed's, only losing to the top two guys(in actual matches against them in the slams and also in terms of slam results). Coming off a win at Cincy, I feel that unlike in the past, he looks rather fresh this time so that may bode well for him come the USO. I like Murray's chances against anyone, yes even against the top three guys! The top three guys each has his own problem coming to the USO, so Murray may be able to capitalize on that provided he himself plays his best tennis. I even venture to say that we may be seeing Murray in the final, against any of the top three guys, depending on the draw; whether he'll win the title this time, well it's hard to tell as he may again feel all the pressure on his shoulders.
luckystar , 8/25/11 9:09 AM
So Novak is favorite... but.. I would like to see draw... something tells me that we will see this time Nole/ Andy and Fed/Rafa this time...
Question mark ( Nole's injury) makes him favorite... but on paper. Besides him... Andy can go till the end... Fish can reach the finale... My God can you imagine NY crowd if he does that.... it will be burning cauldron!!!
I would like to see Delpo goes 'till QF...
Everything is open... it will be pure pleasure to watch!!!
zare , 8/25/11 9:12 AM
isabeau,
What do you mean by that comment? Does it involve Rafa?
Do tell!
Nativenewyorker , 8/25/11 9:35 AM
I'm so not used to seeing Djokovic's name at the top of the list. I was taken aback actually.
I personally feel Nole's downplaying his shoulder issue, i think its a bigger problem than he's letting on. He was even moving it around gingerly in Montreal. We'll see I suppose.
mriiidula , 8/25/11 10:01 AM
Part 2 can in some ways be considered as a declaration of independence.
The Rickster has definitely discarded the yoke of the Nadal Stormtroopers.
When they wake up and their wind is getting back.Tehy will face some diffrent stages of their emotions.
First disbelief, then pain, then anger... and pure hate, after a longer period of course sets in de acceptance of the downfall of their hero.
But first it will surely start a small scale war out on this thread!
Sienna , 8/25/11 11:18 AM
Sienna, please tell me what's the point of such a provocative post? I feel it's very foolish to write off Rafa, he has come through against injury b4. And b4 u have a go at me, he is NOT my favourite player.
deuce , 8/25/11 11:51 AM
Sienna your post is so idiotic... that you have provoked Muzza's fun and Nole's fan!!!
ExFed will never NEVER have charisma and character of Rafa!! I am truly disgusted with your mumbo-jumbo about one perfect sportsman and lovely person.
Their HtoH is so painful... isn't it???
You are just like fleur!
zare , 8/25/11 12:35 PM
I sure do not mind putting Rafa as No 5 "favorite"...if you put him as a fifth favorite you might as well say he is NOT at all the favorite at this USO and it would be more fair to him and us his fans...I am not going to drag about Rafa's mental toughness or his possible resurrection in this USO as I do not really have anything to base it on rather than my true love for Rafa...his camp, as always, reveals some non-optimistic news and then who am I to be optimistic enough for both Rafa and his camp?...I think it is on them to estimate his chances properly...and it would be about the time for all of them to start thinking somewhat positively...that would be refreshing to see for once...
I agree with Ricky that Fed is the only one who can take out Nole...Not this Rafa who shows ?multiple personality weaknesses? (and by multiple personality I mean: playing one set brilliantly and then totally losing scope and letting a lower level player blow him off the court, ex Dodig) and not even in form and self-confident Murray...for Fish I would say that I simply do not see him reaching quarters...he is not that good of a player...I would like to see him play Ferrer or Nalby...they can easily send him home packing...and this opinion of mine HAS NOTHING to do with Rafa being behind him as less favorite for the USO...I can only say that if Rafa was able to lose to Fish at Cincy (with or without injury Rafa has always been so much superior to Fish) he deserves to be punished and put behind him on the Ricky's list...
natashao , 8/25/11 12:40 PM
The only consolation is that Ricky's predictions are usually out of date by the end of the 1st round. Just second guessing according to what's happened recently is really nothing to get wound up about.
nadline , 8/25/11 12:52 PM
No need to worry about what Ricky predicts, after all he's not the one who decide who wins the USO title. Don't let people like Sienna gloat about how bitter Rafa fans are feeling now. Take it easy Rafa fans, whether he wins this USO or not, it's not the end of Rafa, I'm sure about that.
luckystar , 8/25/11 1:22 PM
Nny-
Well I wouldnt be putting rafa at number 5 or Murray at number 3. I have had this feeling about rafa at this tournament that I can not shake and after reading/watching all the press and reading his Facebook, there is something different about rafa, it's like this heaviness that he has been carrying is gone.
I think it will be rafa or Murray that wins the US OPEN this year, the two guys knowing ia counting on.
isabeau77 , 8/25/11 1:34 PM
Well, I just exploded into a hundred pieces when I read what Ricky wrote about Andy! Anyone got any super glue?
deuce , 8/25/11 1:44 PM
Draw is today... 12h NY time???
zare , 8/25/11 1:50 PM
Isa, I have this feeling too that it may be Rafa vs Murray in the final. I think Nole and Murray will end up in the same half and Fedal in the other half. We may be laughed at by fans of other players as just wishful thinking on our part. However, how things pend out nobody can say for sure and that's why the players have to play their matches.
luckystar , 8/25/11 1:52 PM
Fish is playing WAY better hard court tennis than Nadal ATM. Actually, you could make the argument that most of the top 16 is. The thing is that the US Open is a Slam. And Rafa knows how to work those best of 5 matches. Still, it's completely legit to have Fish in the top 4.
I disagree that only Federer's best can beat Djokovic. I think Murray's best can too...it's just that we don't get to see Murray's best all that often. Rafa's best isn't good enough at the moment though, that's been amply proven this year.
cherylmurray , 8/25/11 2:23 PM
Luckystar-
Let them laugh...they were also laughing last year when they were writing rafa off based on his form at the US Open warm up events and look what happened.
CherylMurray-
Yes Fish has been in better form than Rafa, but Rafa last year wasnt in the best of form either and look what he pulled out the win the US Open. Where the great Champions are concerned the less form means, in my book. Rafa hasnt been anywhere near his best this year, but this doesnt mean that he cant find it and when he is at his best, in my opinion he is close to unbeatable.
isabeau77 , 8/25/11 2:48 PM
We have not sees Rafa's best this year, yet, this Rafa will beat Fish if he gets to meet him at the USO..
natashao , 8/25/11 3:21 PM
Murray's best cannot beat Djoker
deuce - what part about Murray made you "explode"????
RickyDimon , 8/25/11 3:23 PM
Yes, Rafa not playing his best but still wins the FO and reaches the final of Wimbledon and five finals of Masters, winning one and losing the others to the no.2/1 guy. To me, Rafa is rusty from the long break and the consecutive long matches in two hot afternoons do him in at Cincy. I think he's competitive enough to reach the later rounds at the USO, given that many of the top players are also having their own problems.
luckystar , 8/25/11 4:11 PM
So I guess acceptance is starting to click in.
Such pattern usually comes in waves.
It tends to become less as time goes by, but it is surely will make one big rise of anger before the acceptance is complete. Nice to see the different states the rafafan are in.
But Rafafans dont be discart Rfaa will 100% positive beat Fish when he will play him in the quarters or semi. Fish cannot beat one of the top 4 in a slam. He does not have the weapons nor the mindset to do so.
Sienna , 8/25/11 5:24 PM
i agree with ricky that federer and djokovic are more talented than murray. i also think nadal should be rated above fish.(as he is a far better BIG match player than the american)
tj600 , 8/25/11 6:20 PM
I disagree of-course,
But its difficult to argue about it when people say Novie is `more talented` for the simple reason of THIS YEAR and the Fed & Novaks slam count.
Murray doesn't even have one...yet.
What i do fevertly disagree about however is that Murray has not won a slam due to not having enought talent, its his mentaility and the fact that he is still maturing that's the issue.
Does Juan Martin have more talent than Muzz Bear because he has one.
mmm no, I don't buy this argument.
Sosueme , 8/25/11 6:50 PM
Top 4 are slated as usual..
FEd vs djoker
Nadal vs Murray.
champ00289 , 8/25/11 6:55 PM
Rafa will play Golubev in the 1st round and Nole will play a qualifier.
nadline , 8/25/11 6:59 PM
LOL at Fed-Djoker again
RickyDimon , 8/25/11 7:00 PM
Brilliant, Nole-Fed again. seriously.
mriiidula , 8/25/11 7:15 PM
Would someone please tell tournament organisers that Andy and Rafa are not Siamese twins!
But yikes, Andy has tough draw :(
deuce , 8/25/11 7:18 PM
Fed and Nole more talented than Murray? I guess that depends on the definition of talent. To me, Murray is a more intelligent player than both Fed and Nole and only Rafa can match Murray in terms of intelligence in tennis. If Murray can have a forehand like Rafa's, I think that will make a lot of difference to what he can and already achieved; he may be a multi slam winner by now.
luckystar , 8/25/11 7:20 PM
If AndyM can stay focused psychologically he has the versatility of play to deal with Nole, Raffa plus Fed and win but as we all know the mindset can be Andys weakness, lets hope the British press don`t pile the pressure on him as he doesn`t seem to cope with this.
mojo , 8/25/11 8:12 PM
The Serve for me is the crucial thing Lucky. I don't know if its the ball toss or the motion but whatever it is he would be doing himself a LOT of favours if he managed to sort it out.
Rafa & Murray again mmmm.
I saw Puss n Boots being interviewed on Eurosport yesterday and beside being his usual charming self (& suprisingly honest!) he was looking a little `introspective` to say the least..
Mats Wilander can do that to you however (unless you're Roger F of-course).
Wilander kept on rubbing it in about how `amazing` Nolie's year had been and what could Rafa possibly do to stop him etc.
He took it well, but he wasn't exactly brimming with confidence that's for sure..
Sosueme , 8/25/11 8:20 PM
djokovic is likely to suffer from accumulated fatigue nadal game is in shambles federer is quite inconsistent could this be andy murray's moment could it be? well it can be is but now that the draw is here i think federer can win this US open provided he remains consistent with his serve as for andy murray he must watch kung fu panda "you must believe shifo you must believe"
isfand , 8/25/11 8:29 PM
all things being equal, Fish is ahead of Nadal. But looking at the draw, I would move Nadal ahead of Fish.
RickyDimon , 8/25/11 9:54 PM
draw analysis - http://tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20110825/U.S._Open_draw_anal ysis:_Djokovic_with_Federer_again
RickyDimon , 8/25/11 10:03 PM
Sosueme, I am new to this site, hence, could you enlighten me who is "Puss n Boots'?I find it a bit difficult to follow your post at times coz I don't know the players who are the beneficiaries of these hilarious monkers.
scoretracker , 8/26/11 10:34 AM
Puss n Boots = RN
M Bear = AM
Novie B = ND
Voila!
Sosueme , 8/26/11 12:22 PM
And those are the polite ones. lol
ed251137 , 8/26/11 12:57 PM
Thank you Sosueme. They're all funny. I need some laughs to stay awake. This week has been my turn to work the night shift, and I've still 5 more hours to go before I can finally snooze. I tried visiting some other tennis sites for the latest news, but this is the only one that seems to have anything interesting to read late at night. One site has a book and film review in session, so no tennis news there, but just borring stuff on who's more informed on books and film.pfff
I don't understand why some Novak fans are unhappy that Fed lands on his side of the draw, coz, Novak's beaten Fed what 5 times this year. You'd think that the Novak fans would be happy about this happening, but they seem very displeased. For what it's worth to his fans, Novak has got the easiest draw again, so he should get to the SFs without too much hassle. I'm hoping for a winner who has won less litles this year to win the USO. Tennis needs to be kept unpredictable and interesting, not the same ol, same ol player or players winning all of the time.
I think Depotro, if he's injury free, could do some damage, other than that I'm not good at predictions, which means, I don't have a clue as to who will do well at the USO. All I can say is the best man will win.
scoretracker , 8/27/11 8:00 AM
all things being equal, Fish is ahead of Nadal. But looking at the draw, I would move Nadal ahead of Fish.
RickyDimon , 8/25/11 9:54 PM
What's that supposed to mean?
Last year I got really upset when Rafa was not given a chance in hell to win the USO because I couldn't understand why, so I'm relaxed this year whatever anyobody says, because it makes no difference to the outcome. I just hope Rafa is fit physically and mentally to defend his title.
nadline , 8/27/11 8:58 AM
i was just about to ask if this was done before the draw was made. because seeing the draw i would have put rafa ahead of fish. but now i see it was done before the draw was made, so that makes sense. personally, i would have put rafa ahead of fish any for the simple reason that he has the experience of winning: both grand slams in general and the uso in particular. i would have thought that would have just put him above fish in the contenders list. same goes for murray as he's yet to win one, but he has at least beaten rafa in a grand slam and reached 3 finals (we won't talk about the actual finals though...). and beaten novak (albeit by retirement, but he came closer than rafa did in rome as well). so i'll accept that murray is more of a contender than rafa
Sib69 , 8/27/11 11:55 AM
nadline... what are you talking about? cheryl wrote a whole blog on why rafa was going to the the us open last year. why does it matter if people give him a chance or not? it won't affect the final outcome
Sib69 , 8/27/11 12:02 PM
@Sib69 , 8/27/11 12:02 PM
Sibb, you've probably got a short memory. I agree that Cheryl did write a blog after Wimbledon to say she thought Rafa would win the USO, but she changed her mind after Cinncy and Toronto, so I'm not mad and I don't say things for the sake of it. Cheryl and I had a real ding dong about this last year and I'm only relating it now because you've accused me of misrepresenting the facts. Anyway, here are just a couple of the negative vibes from Cheryl last year regarding Rafa's chances:
U.S. Open pre-tournament expert picks
2010-08-30 05:49:02
Cheryl
Semifinals
Andy Murray over Rafael Nadal 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-4. Nadal will want this win very badly, but I think that Murray might just be too good on this surface. Expect a massive fight from the Spaniard, but it just might not be enough. There is some possibility that Nadal could pull it out, but don't count on it.
Cheryl?s blog - The Federer-Nadal final moves tantalizingly close
2010-09-08 15:25:47
If you had told me 2 weeks ago that Rafael Nadal would be THE in-form player of the 2010 US Open thus far, I?d have laughed at you. Hard. Given his performance in Toronto and Cincinnati, a round of 16 exit seemed not only possible, but likely.
___________________________________________
I don't care whether you think predictions matter or not, I comment as I wish, you can comment or not as you wish. OK?
nadline , 8/27/11 4:54 PM
The fact is Sibb, I never even mentioned Cheryl in any of my posts concerning this year's predicitons, I only made general comments about why I'm not going to get wound up about them so I don't know where exactly you are coming from.
No one is stopping you from epressing yourself so I don't see that you've got the right to dictate to me.
nadline , 8/27/11 6:29 PM
all things being equal, Fish is ahead of Nadal. But looking at the draw, I would move Nadal ahead of Fish.
RickyDimon , 8/25/11 9:54 PM
What's that supposed to mean?
nadline, 8/27/11 8:58 AM
Isn't it obvious? Ricky thinks Rafa has an easier draw than Fish.
numero , 8/27/11 9:14 PM
No it's not obvious because Rafa hasn't got an easier draw than Fish.
nadline , 8/27/11 9:32 PM
It seems he has the easiest draw of the top 4 by far if we're being honest.
numero , 8/27/11 10:54 PM
I think when we say Djokovic as the clear fav-i just doubt his shoulder and also the fact that he might face federer in SF. Reason being Federer needs something in his life to get motivated and in French Open Sf, he showed to us y he is considered as the greatest- and if he faces Djoko again- i m sure it will reignite this champion again to perform his best! ( Read this in this article:http://bit.ly/rf8DlW -Federer Nadal Showdown?)
And if he doesnt win- since 2002 first time no GS- good enough reason for him to be motivated- No?
fantennis , 8/28/11 12:27 AM
If Nole doesn't lose to Roger, he'll likely lose to the winner of Rafa/Andy (if they play each other) unless they play 5 or 6 hours. Also if they have to play Saturday and Sunday Nole's fitness (due to having played so many matches and possibly the shoulder) will likely cause him to lose in the final. Favorite or not, Nole is going to need some good fortune to win this one.
numero , 8/28/11 12:59 AM
Rafa has played more matches than Nole this year so far: 63 vs 59, so talking about being tired, Rafa would also be tired. Whether it's Fed/Nole or Murray/Nole, it would still be a long match, as Murray is more than capable of holding his ground against Nole. Don't expect a match like the AO final, it will be more like the Rome SF, ie a close match, if Murray meets Nole. There's not any advantage meeting Murray in a SF, as the 2008 USO had shown, so if Rafa meets Murray in the semi, it would also be a long drawn out match as well. Stop whining . Frankly, I much prefer a Rafa vs Fed semifinal, because I'm confident it won't be a drawn out match and I know who would win. It's never easy meeting Murray in a semifinal, and I don't think Nole is complaining about the draw. Likewise, Fed would be happy not having to face Rafa in the semi, at least he has a better chance of making the final. I think given a choice, Rafa would also like to meet Fed in the semi, and let Murray deal with Nole in the other semi. For Murray, it doesn't matter who he faces in the semi, as both Rafa and Nole are difficult opponents.
luckystar , 8/28/11 1:55 AM
Why should the writers' picks draw so much angst? I don't get it coz they don't have the power to change the outcome of the tournament as to who'll win or lose with their picks, so why are they being being maligned in such a manner for voicing an opinion? It's only an opinion ppl, to which all are entitled. I say let the writers have free will to express themselves on what they feel, coz, you all have an alternative choice, which is to disagree with them and voice your opinions as well. It appears some take these picks as a personal slight, and I don't understand why. Is it because some live viccariously through these players, hence the deep feelings of a personal insult? I'm a Fed fan and don't care who picks him to lose, coz, I knopw he can win, when he puts his mind to it. In that case, would any writer's predictions that he'll lose make any difference?
I for one would have loved to see Roger in Nadal's side of the draw and meet him in the SFs, coz, all Fed fans know how well Rog can play at the USO. I'd have loved to see Murray and Novak square off in the SFs and wear themselves out with their long, grinding rallies, then lose to Roger in the final. Perhaps, that scenario would make the Fedal haters more happy, but could be a huge problem for them as well, coz they won't get to see a Nole-Andy final, and maybe neither will win the title. Be careful what you wish for is all I can say.
scoretracker , 8/28/11 5:53 AM
Bravo scoretracker. Well said. I think your analysis of the reasons for the weird and often irrational responses is spot on.
ed251137 , 8/28/11 8:13 AM
ed, i doubt some don't know what they want for the writers to say. It's a catch-22 situation, they're damned if the do, and damned if they don't.
It's amazing what I read on some other sites, where some would rather watch or do something else, than view another Fedal match. I suppose I can't blame them, coz I find Muray/Nole matches to be boring due to their long, grinding rallies. I also find their tennis to be boring, as they lack Roger's effortless strokes and Rafa's boundless energy, which makes for a scintillating match whenever the two collide. I say collide, coz, it's always a head-on collision, the bull going after the suave matador. ha ha
scoretracker , 8/29/11 5:46 AM
@nadline
wow... overreact much? where was i dictating to you what to write? i just didn't get where you were coming from saying no one gave rafa a chance last year. cheryl did. and frankly, after his performance and toronto and cincinati last year, can you blame people for thinking someone else would win it?
i just made a comment asking why you were saying no one gave rafa a chance last year when clearly, as you agreed, someone did. i don't read everything published on here, nor do i remember every predicition that someone has made on here (that's really no reason to insult my memory though. especially as the insult made no sense. if i have a short memory, how can i remember something written before the expert pics that i had forgotten?). i was also agreeing with your comment that predictions play absolutely no role in the outcome of the match. i don't know why you reacted the way you did, but i really think you need to be less aggressive to people on here. all i did was ask why you said what you did and then agreed with you. i don't think that really warranted the attack it received
Sib69 , 8/30/11 12:14 AM
So... so many time this year I said... he can't do it! He's got to be tired... and he did it!
So this time it will be same... after he win over Tsonga in SF ( does anyone still think that ExFed can pas Jo...no way )... he will search for revenge after Andy!
I can't understand anyone's analyses based on one match in year .... ONE match.
ExFed is slamless ... AO 2010... almost 2 year! Even on tour he has Doha... opening event 2011... and then one bad day for Nole and Fed in full blaze and glory... he won... Geeeeez...old glory is not enough.
zare , 8/30/11 7:46 AM
I haven't the time to read any of the above posts in detail.
But I get the distinct impression that most of you think the Top 4 shall
probably be squaring off in the semis again.
I do NOT think this likely, only somewhat possible.
They're not all playing well enough for this normally irregular event to take place....
Rafa and Novie appear to be running on fumes at this stage and RF is getting beaten by players in the slams he never used to lose to, but there is still.....
M Bear!
But his record here has not been great as he puts too much pressure on himself for this slam, but we shall see...
Sosueme , 8/30/11 11:33 AM
wishin and hopin and dreamin....;)
deuce , 8/30/11 11:56 AM
Sibb, if you don't read everything then be very careful about making assumptions about who said what and what people are talking about.
nadline , 8/30/11 12:57 PM
" I suppose I can't blame them, coz I find Muray/Nole matches to be boring due to their long, grinding rallies.."
Love em myself (although it depends) personal taste & that, but...
No.
You won't see just long grinding rallies from Andy and Novak from now on in,
M bear played it that way in Cincy because that was all that was required quite simply.
If M bear tries to take a fully fit Novie B along the `long and grinding road` for too long.....
He will have no chance!
And knows it.
Nobody can live with him right now playing such a game.
Not even P n Boots, the original master of such things.
Short Cuts are what is required.
Sosueme , 8/30/11 2:39 PM
"long and grinding road" lol....but for me "something in the way he moves, moves me like no other..." ;)
deuce , 8/30/11 2:56 PM
me too Deucey Dear,
me too..
P n Boots?
Oh, I don't think I'll shorten that moniker ever again to THAT.....
Sosueme , 8/30/11 3:13 PM
I said long and grinding rallies. what's so bad about that? Isn't it the truth? Why so touchy about that statement. Glad to know he moves you so very, very much, but the rallies are stil long and grinding. You don't like Fedal matches, so why be angry if another does not like long and grinding rallies. all's fair you know.
Sosueme, glad you understand that the long rallies would be futile.
scoretracker , 8/30/11 5:15 PM
The Rafa of 2010 or 2008 can live with this Nole. The 2011 Rafa can't, and sadly I don't see the 2008 or 2010 Rafa appearing again. However, it's not necessary to outgrind or outlast Nole from the baseline, shortening the points is the way to go. I think the only player who can live with Nole at the baseline and has the ability to beat him is Murray. Both Ferrer and Simon can also go the distance with Nole but they can't beat him. The problem with Murray is that after fightng so hard to get to the slam final, he can't perform well in the final.
luckystar , 8/30/11 5:20 PM
scoretracker, how on earth do you get that we're "angry"? We're laughing, OK?
deuce , 8/30/11 5:50 PM
What?!?
Don't get all confrontational over nothing Scoretracker,
I was not in the slightest bit `touchy`on what you had said, its obvious from my post I was merely commenting on it.
I also didn't say that I didn't like Fedal matches either, that's an assumption on your part, although they have certainly lost a little of their lustre in recent occasions.
I can still `feel the magic` however.
And trust me, if I was angry with you, you would know the difference immediately.
I think its some of the other posters (esp some of the Nadal and Fed Fans) that are always so `touchy` & defensive about everything here!
Good grief!
Anyhoo, I'm not entirely sure M Bear can live with Novie at the baseline Lucky, unless he mixes it up more often than not, until I see more evidence otherwise @ least.
I think he can beat him however.
Novies rythmic offensive FH shots are just a little too hard and precise for him, or anybody really.
At the moment.....
Confidence, Confidence!
Although the flesh may be more unwilling than the mind in the coming weeks.
Sosueme , 8/30/11 5:50 PM
Sosueme, I was addressing the comment by duece on the long and grinding road, with the lol.. I'm not getting all confrontational. Deuce does not like Fedal matches, which is why I said no need to be upset if others find the long and grinding rallies to be boring. FWIW, the long rallies will wear them both out and then they'll be ripe for the picking.
scoretracker , 8/30/11 5:54 PM
lucky, scheduling doesn't help either, does it? A bit more rain, as per last time Andy got to a final here, and he is likely bowled and stumped b4 he gets to any final :(
deuce , 8/30/11 5:56 PM
@Deuce,
We're apparently still caught in the cross fire of a tired old battle of diminishing importance I'm afraid!
Sosueme , 8/30/11 5:59 PM
scoretracker, for the LAST time, I am not upset, I am not angry...but now getting a teeny bit tetchy because u r reading stuff into my posts that is NOT there. You say "tomate-ose" I say"tomart-ose", and that's fine with me.
deuce , 8/30/11 6:01 PM
Peace, deuce. All's well.
scoretracker , 8/30/11 6:04 PM
Oh Alright then, you're off the hook,
Just.
It's the way you tell em Scoretracker!
However you're wrong about Deuce,
We are clearly just having a laugh & it's you that's maybe getting a bit defensive about next to Nada.
I said NadA not Nadal btw.
Nothing to see here folks....
Sosueme , 8/30/11 6:09 PM
Judging from their match at Rome this year, Murray can stay ar rhe baseline and rally with Nole. Murray can simply absorb the blow from Nole's forehand and backhand and changing the pace to catch Nole off guard. He simply has the talent or ability whatever you call it to change or vary the pace, throw in a drop shot, throw in some S&V or simply approach the net, mixing things nicely to keep his opponents guessing. It's no wonder that when he's in top form, he can beat most players, including the top three. He has impressive H2H against big serving, big forehand players like Delpo, Tsonga, Sod, Berdych, Cilic and Verdasco. Of course it's never easy beating the 2011 Nole, but I think only two players, Fed and Murray, have a good chance of doing so.
luckystar , 8/30/11 7:16 PM
If he serves well, he is virtually unplayable.
Pity it's a rarity.
It would be about time if Monsieur M Bear stepped up to the plate Lucky darling.
His net game shall be key & its one of the best if only he would engage it a bit more.
We might see someone `new` win the USO this year however, al la Delpo I think.
Or Kivitova.
I don't buy it that Novie is overwhelming fav, he looks like he's been in the wars!
And if he does win it & then The Masters Final etc I would think the inevitable Nadalesque downturn would take place 2012.
Unless he's some kind of Android from Outer Space!
Or the true spirit of the `Energising Bunny` made flesh!
Roger's complaining btw, that the court is too slow (although he has done v well in the past in AO) as he of-course likes em fast.
Apparently the organisers changed the way the surface was painted & the sand content of the paint so there's a lot less skidding off of the lines now.
They screwed it up!
This should benefit both M Bear and Puss N Boots more than the big servers methinks.
Sosueme , 8/30/11 7:40 PM
Soderling has rotten luck with this virus. Too bad.
numero , 8/31/11 10:41 PM
Venus just withdrew due to illness too! Something must be going around.
numero , 8/31/11 10:46 PM
Venus withdrew due to being diagnosed with an autoimmune disease. It's called Sjogren's syndrome and is very debilitating. She was suffering from a viral infection for a long time this summer, but it has turned out to be something much more serious.
This disease is characterized by fatigue and joint pain, however it can lead to kidney damage and lupus.
This is not the same thing as that stomach virus that seems to be going around at the USO.
This is sad news.
Nativenewyorker , 9/1/11 4:07 AM
Poor Venus, I'm sure retirement is not far away. Both sisters have had such bad luck with their health lately.
nadline , 9/1/11 10:06 AM
Of course it's never easy beating the 2011 Nole, but I think only two players, Fed and Murray, have a good chance of doing so.
luckystar , 8/30/11 7:16 PM
This kind of pronouncement just creases me up. Before Paris, no one was wapable of beating the 2011 Nole, then Federer beat him, then it was pronounced that only Federer was capable of beating him, then Murray beat him in Cinncy not only Fed and Murray are capable of beating him.
Sigh!
nadline , 9/1/11 10:10 AM
Well, one player that is NOT capable of beating Novie right now Nadline is Puss n Boots I'm afraid....
For The present at least....
Let's see how it plays out going on, but I'd say Andy and Roger have a good shot in this tournament.
It's a reasonable deduction..
Sosueme , 9/1/11 5:37 PM
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I really don't think Murray is going to be any kind of a factor, but I like Fed's chances of getting to the final. Tsonga could be there as well.
scoot , 8/25/11 3:42 AM