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2011-07-17 19:14:09
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
Six weeks of non-stop action on the American hard courts gets underway on Monday with the Atlanta Tennis Championships. It is the annual beginning of the U.S. Open Series leading up to the season’s final Grand Slam in Flushing Meadows.
While most of the top players in the world will be taking a break until the pair of Masters events next month, an impressive field will brave the heat this week in the southeastern United States. Mardy Fish and John Isner, Atlanta’s finalists in 2010, lead an American contingent that also includes Ryan Harrison and James Blake. Veterans Tommy Haas and Lleyton Hewitt, meanwhile, look to overcome physical problems and pick up a little bit of summer momentum.
On the other side of the pond, the clay-court season winds down with a 500-point event, the German Tennis Championships in Hamburg. Some of the second-tier clay-court players will likely vie for the title, with Gael Monfils leading the way as the top seed ahead of other contenders such as Nicolas Almagro, Fernando Verdasco, and Gilles Simon.
Atlanta Tennis Championships
Where: Atlanta, Georgia
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $531,000
Points: 250
Top Seed: Mardy Fish
Defending Champion: Mardy Fish
Draw Analysis: If Fish and Isner can get through their opening matches, a repeat final could be in the cards. Fish awaits either Richard Berankis or Nicolas Mahut, who are both dangerous on hard courts despite dealing with recent injury trouble . Isner will go up against either Blake—his doubles partner—or Ernests Gulbis, both of whom have as much firepower as anyone in this field but are terribly inconsistent.
While Fish should not have too much trouble in the top section of the draw, the second quarter of the bracket could be the most entertaining. Xavier Malisse, a quarterfinalist in 2010, has a bye as the No. 4 seed before a possible opener against Harrison. Grigor Dimitrov, who seemed to come of age at Wimbledon, is on a collision course with Hewitt for the second round.
Fans at the ATC should be familiar will all seven names in the bottom quarter of the bracket. All three wild cards (Tommy Haas and Atlanta’s own Robby Ginepri and Donald Young) are there along with Americans Alex Bogomolov and Michael Russell as well as former U.S. Open quarterfinalist Gilles Muller and 2010 Atlanta semifinalist Kevin Anderson. Haas, Ginepri, and Young will have plenty of crowd support, but Anderson is the favorite to reach the quarters due to his stellar season.
First-Round Upset Alert: Gilles Muller over (7) Alex Bogomolov. This would not be much of an upset, but Bogomolov is seeded thanks to a breakout season on tour at 28 years old. Unfortunately for the American, Muller is also in fine form and the Luxembourgian gets to play this one on fast hard courts. Muller qualified for Atlanta last year, advanced one round, then held match points against eventual runner-up John Isner. The world No. 80 is coming off a third-round appearance at Wimbledon, where he took Rafael Nadal to a pair of tiebreakers.
Hot: Mardy Fish, Kevin Anderson, John Isner, Ryan Sweeting
Cold: Igor Kunitsyn, Lleyton Hewitt, James Blake, Robby Ginepri, Ernests Gulbis, Tommy Haas
Semifinal Predictions: Mardy Fish over Lleyton Hewitt and John Isner over Kevin Anderson
Final: Fish over Isner
German Tennis Championships
Where: Hamburg, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 1,115,000 Euros
Points: 500
Top Seed: Gael Monfils
Defending Champion: Andrey Golubev
Draw Analysis: Andrey Golubev made a Cinderella run to a shock title in Hamburg last season and it is not unreasonable to think that something like that could happen again. None of the top six players in the world are on hand this week, of course, and seventh-ranked Monfils is by no means an overwhelming favorite.
In addition to Monfils, other serious contenders for the title include Spaniards Almagro and Verdasco. Almagro is part of a modest third quarter of the draw, but no section of this well-balanced bracket will be a walk in the park. The world No. 14 could meet countryman Albert Montanes in the third round before a possible clash against a German—either Florian Mayer or Philipp Petzschner.
Verdasco will have a difficult time advancing in Hamburg. The world No. 22 faces a likely opener against compatriot Pablo Andujar, who currently finds himself in the Stuttgart title match. A tough fourth quarter of this draw also features the other Stuttgart finalist—Juan Carlos Ferrero—as well as Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer.
The top half of the bracket does not boast as much natural clay-court talent. Monfils should be able to reach the quarters, at which point he could run into either Alexandr Dolgopolov or fellow Frenchman Simon. Mikhail Youzhny appears to have the edge on the semifinal spot out of the second quarter, but unseeded threats like Carlos Berlocq and Ivan Dodig could factor into the equation.
Second-Round Upset Alert: Ivan Dodig over (10) Marin Cilic. The two Croats and occasional doubles partners have the misfortune of going up against each other in the Hamburg first round. Cilic, once a member of the Top 10, is a much bigger name but his 23-13 record in 2011 is mediocre by his standards. A late bloomer at 26 years old, Dodig has earned 20 of his 30 career ATP match victories this season. He is not quite as on fire now as he was earlier in the year, but this still has minor upset written all over it.
A host of other seeds could tumble out of the tournament after their opening matches. Watch out for potential matchups including Petzschner against (6) Mayer, Juan Monaco against (9) Janko Tipsarevic, Philipp Kohlschreiber against (16) Montanes, Andujar against (8) Verdasco, Ferrero against (11) Davydenko, and Marcel Granollers against (2) Melzer.
Hot: Nicolas Almagro, Juan Ignacio Chela, Carlos Berlocq, Ivan Dodig, Pablo Andujar, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe
Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic, Albert Montanes, Denis Istomin, Andrey Golubev, Jeremy Chardy
Semifinal Predictions: Mikhail Youzhny over Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro over Fernando Verdasco
Final: Almagro over Youzhny
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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indeed derstatic, i would say starace has a very good chance to upset almagro in second round. almagro was jolly rotten in båstad.
croc , 7/18/11 11:05 AM
Yeah Starace took more games (7) than anyone off Söderling in Båstad and was only broken once per set. Having looked closer at the tournament I'd say decent clay courters like Giraldo, Starace, Chela or Andujar could go very deep here. The seeds are not in any scary form (Monfils, Seppi, Dolgo, Simon, Youzhny, GGL, Montanes, Almagro, Verdasco, Davydenko, Melzer) or at their best on clay (Mayer, Cilic, Tipsarevic). Looking towards Atlanta though the seeds should expect to see the semi-finals in a quite weak draw.
derstatic , 7/18/11 12:36 PM
eh, I think Fish is the only one of the Top 4 seeds in Atlanta who is a lock for the semifinals
RickyDimon , 7/18/11 1:48 PM
it says there are 7 comments but I can only see the first 4....
RickyDimon , 7/18/11 9:19 PM
Goodness gracious DY won only 3 games against Michael Russell in front of the home crowd. That's got to be a wake-up call if ever there was one. Change your career dude if you won't (notice I didn't say can't) do better than that.
numero , 7/19/11 1:20 AM
DY seems unable to compete on the main tour. He's had ample opportunity over the years with almost nothing to show for his efforts. A pity, really.
cherylmurray , 7/19/11 11:48 PM
He needs to dump his stupid parents and their meddling ways and listen to a real coach.
He has talent.... I saw him take out Murray!
Granted, my grandmother could have at that point..but...still...
Sosueme , 7/20/11 1:43 AM
Ha ha, that win over Muzza doesn't prove anything! DY badly needs to change something. I feel sorry for him, poor guy, obviously talented but doing something wrong. He is not a genius like Muzza but he could be top-50 or even top-30.
holdserve , 7/20/11 1:56 AM
What happened to Dimitrov? I hope Ryan Harrison can do better.
numero , 7/21/11 2:02 PM
Sosueme, your grannie's grannie could've taken out Andy at that point...
deuce , 7/21/11 3:36 PM
I agree with deuce. That was the worst I've ever seen Murray play. Young needed to do little more than put the ball in play -- murray took care of the rest on his own.
cherylmurray , 7/21/11 4:07 PM
Hey cheryl, I complained about dnalves repeating his Rafa doping allegations two more times after you warned him this month. Clearly he doesn't care for warnings. But you have ignored my repeated complaints. So I emailed but email bounced back with an out of office till 8th August.
So does this mean there is no moderation till 8th August?
holdserve , 7/21/11 5:34 PM
I have to agree with a few others. I don't believe Donald Young is really cut out for a future in the ATP. The way he lost to Russell was embarrassing. And thinking back to his victory over Murray this year, it's just way too obvious that Murray beat himself in that one. I think he's just one of those guys who had the game for success at the Junior level, but just wasn't cut out for success on the Professional level. I honestly believe his heart is not in this game. I don't see this as his "calling", so maybe at some point, I expect he'll quit tennis altogether and pursue something else in his life he's more passionate about.
djb247365 , 7/21/11 10:16 PM
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Almagro didn't look too hot in Båstad playing as defending champion. Wasn't moving to well and spraying balls all over the place, mixed up with his usual stellar forehands and backhands. Very inconsistant in his level.
Very difficult tournament to predict imo. Monfils probably most talanted in the field but bowing out R1 to Hanescu after holding MP is not that impressive. Ferrero, Chela, Berloqc, Dodig, Andujar are all good players in fine form but doesn't come around as ATP500 winners. Fatigue could be a factor for Ferrero after grabbing the Stuttgart title after a 10 week off with injury. Think we'll see a surprise winner here just like last year.
derstatic , 7/17/11 10:07 PM