Ricky Dimon

• Wimbledon draw analysis: Isner, Mahut steal the show

  2011-06-18 23:44:01
  

  It’s not often that a first-round matchup between two unseeded players is the talk of a Grand Slam draw. In fact, there is no way that has ever happened. But that is exactly the case at Wimbledon, where John Isner and Nicolas Mahut will be squaring off right away for a second consecutive year. It’s a rematch, of course, of the longest match in tennis history—which Isner won 70-68 in the fifth set.
  
  As for the rest of the field, it should be all about the big four—the same top four players that reached the semifinals at Roland Garros. Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray are all heavily favored to be a part of the final weekend. Nadal may have the most difficult path while Federer arguably has the easiest, but none of it should matter with the way these four guys are performing right now.

   

  Nadal’s quarter

   

  General consensus is that Nadal is in the toughest quarter of the Wimbledon draw, but it’s definitely not as taxing as the hand he was dealt at the French Open—and we all know how that turned out. Juan Martin Del Potro is a big name and nobody ever wants to see him on the other side of the net, but the Argentine is still short on matches and he has never been a force on grass. Nadal should have no more than one competitive match en route to the quarterfinals.
  
  This year's championship bout will not be a rematch of the 2010 Wimbledon final because Tomas Berdych also finds himself in this section. But this is not the same Berdych and the result is a quarterfinal spot that could go to almost anyone. A prime candidate is Mardy Fish, who also is not the same as he was in early 2010—but in a good way. The slimmed-down American has been in rare form ever since last summer and he could make it to the last eight despite a potential second-round against Philipp Kohlschreiber and a possible third-rounder against either Fernando Verdasco or Radek Stepanek.

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — (21) Fernando Verdasco vs. Radek Stepanek
  
  These two veterans are no strangers to each other. They have squared off five times, first way back in 2004 and most recently at the 2009 Sony Ericsson Open. Verdasco won two of their three 2009 encounters, but Stepanek leads the overall head-to-head series 3-2. Their one clash at Wimbledon did not disappoint; Stepanek pulled out a 6-7(4), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory in the 2006 fourth round.
  
  Verdasco is a considerable favorite on paper, but current form suggests this will be another close one. The Spaniard is a mediocre 17-13 for his 2011 campaign and has no momentum of any kind right now. Stepanek is always a threat on grass with his flat, aggressive style of play and he looked good at Queen’s Club. The 32-year-old Czech scored a nice win over Ivan Ljubicic before taking Nadal to three sets.
  
  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (10) Mardy Fish vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (15) Gilles Simon vs. (24) Juan Martin Del Potro

   

  What to Watch For — There is probably only one person in this quarter who can put a serious scare into Nadal. Not Berdych—he is nowhere near his 2010 form and even then he got handled by Nadal in the final; not Del Potro—grass is not his thing; not Fish—not on the big stage of what would be a Grand Slam quarterfinal. It’s Raonic, the 20-year-old Canadian. The jury is still out on Raonic when it comes to grass; he played his first tournament on the surface last week and reach the Halle quarterfinals. Raonic’s game should be lethal on grass and Nadal is more ripe for an upset in the first week of majors, so this could get interesting.
  
  Murray’s quarter

   

  Normally this would be a relatively difficult draw for Murray, but two of his potential opponents are not at the top of their games at the moment. Marin Cilic, who could run into Murray in the third round, has slumped throughout 2011. Andy Roddick is on a collision course with Murray for the quarterfinals, but one can only hope that showdown would be more entertaining than their clash at Queen’s. Roddick, who did not win a single match on clay, got blown out by the fourth-ranked Scot 6-3, 6-1 during semifinal action.
  
  Still, Murray is not completely out of the woods. In the fourth round he will almost certainly face someone whom he has met before at the All-England Club. The likely opponent is either Richard Gasquet or Stanislas Wawrinka; Murray overcame Gasquet 5-7, 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-2, 6-4 in 2008 and outlasted Wawrinka 2-6, 6-3, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 in the first-ever Wimbledon match under the closed roof in 2009.

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — (27) Marin Cilic vs. Ivan Ljubicic
  
  Croatia won’t be happy about this first-round matchup, as it pits two of the country’s best players against each other right away. Cilic and Ljubicic have gone head-to-head only once before, with Ljubicic prevailing 7-6(7), 7-5 three years ago on the hard courts of Indian Wells.
  
  Ljubicic has never been a real factor at Wimbledon, reaching the third round just twice and never advancing to the second week. Still, his mammoth flat serve is also tough to deal with on grass. Cilic made it to the fourth round three seasons ago, so it’s clear he can do some damage on the slick stuff even though he likes to have more time with which to set up his groundstrokes. This one looks like a complete toss-up; anything less than five sets would be a disappointment.
  
  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (30) Thomaz Bellucci vs. Feliciano Lopez
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (9) Gael Monfils vs. (23) Janko Tipsarevic

   

  What to Watch For — Murray could face difficult matchups in the third and fourth rounds, but based on his current form he should be able to cruise into the quarterfinals. More interestingly, the other quarterfinal spot in this section is completely up for grabs. Roddick and Monfils are the top two seeds in the bottom half of this quarter; Roddick has not played much tennis of late and Monfils has never been at his best on grass. The door is open for unseeded threats such as Feliciano Lopez and Ivo Karlovic or No. 23 seed Janko Tipsarevic.

   

  Federer’s quarter

   

  The big story in this part of the draw is the Isner-Mahut rematch, but once that hoopla ends the bottom line is that Federer is going to be the one advancing to the semifinals. Getting David Nalbandian in the third round is not the easiest of propositions for the third-ranked Swiss, but Nalbandian has been injured and is not where he needs to be to produce a titanic upset. Federer should be in cruise control en route to the quarterfinals.
  
  While Federer, Isner, and Mahut will hog the headlines, the other half of this quarter will be intriguing. David Ferrer prefers clay and could collide with ‘s-Hertogenbosch champion Ivan Dodig as early as round two. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Alexandr Dolgopolov played a thrilling five-setter last year at Wimbledon and will probably go head-to-head again in the third round. First, however, Dolgopolov will have to get past big-hitting Chilean Fernando Gonzalez.

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — John Isner vs. Nicolas Mahut
  
  It’s hard to believe that this was pure coincidence. Either way, the simple fact that we have a rematch on our hands in round one is absolutely epic. Just one year ago, of course, Isner and Mahut played the longest match in tennis history—11 hours and five minutes. Isner broke serve in the 138^th game of the fifth set to survive 6–4, 3–6, 6–7(7), 7–6(3), 70–68.
  
  Not surprisingly, both men have dealt with physical problems in the 12 months since. At the moment, though, they are in decent form and the result could be another competitive affair. Isner was dealt a horrible draw at Roland Garros but played great against Nadal and led sets to one before succumbing 6-4 in the fifth. Mahut owns just four ATP-level victories in 2011, but one of those came at Queen’s and another came earlier this week in ‘s-Hertogenbosch.
  
  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (7) David Ferrer vs. Ivan Dodig
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (22) Alexandr Dolgopolov

   

  What to Watch For — The Isner-Mahut showdown actually has a lot more riding on it than simply being the rematch of one of the most memorable encounters in tennis history. For the winner, the draw will open wide for a potential trek to at least the fourth round. The two nearest seeds to Isner and Mahut are Almagro and Youzhny, neither of whom are particularly dangerous on grass. Especially if it is Isner, don’t be surprised if the winner advances to the second week for a meeting with Federer. As for Federer, nothing in this quarter of the bracket should give him too much trouble.

   

  Djokovic’s quarter

   

  Djokovic is no longer the talk of the tennis world like he was heading into the French Open (and at every other tournament that he has entered in 2011). The second-ranked Serb finally lost a match—to Federer in the Roland Garros semis—and grass is his worst surface. Nonetheless, this is a new-and-improved Djokovic and he should not have any problems as he makes his way to what would be a second consecutive Wimbledon semifinal.
  
  The real question is whom Djokovic will face throughout the fortnight. Almost everyone else in his section comes with question marks. Robin Soderling is slightly off his game right now and even though he is an all-court player, grass is his worst surface. He also has a tough draw against Philipp Petzschner in round one. Jurgen Melzer, Marcos Baghdatis, and Nikolay Davydenko are all struggling this season while the unseeded contenders are either not talented enough (Andreas Seppi) or not playing well enough (Ernests Gulbis, Lleyton Hewitt) to make any real impact.

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — (5) Robin Soderling vs. Philipp Petzschner
  
  Soderling annihilated Petzschner last year at the Sony Ericsson Open, but their only previous grass-court duel was a good one. At the Halle event in 2008, Soderling prevailed 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Petzschner has been mediocre this season, but he is rounding into form just in time for Wimbledon. The German helped lead his country to the World Team Championship and he recently advanced to the Halle final before retiring against countryman Philipp Kohlschreiber due to a back problem.
  
  Petzschner has never lost in the first round in three trips to the All-England Club and he has been to the third round on two straight occasions. Last year he led eventual champion Nadal two sets to one before losing in five. An upset of Soderling would be a huge one, but it is a real possibility.

   

  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (11) Jurgen Melzer vs. Dmitry Tursunov
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (13) Viktor Troicki vs. (19) Michael Llodra

   

  What to Watch For — The early rounds could be difficult for the top two players in this section of the draw. Soderling-Petzschner has upset potential written all over it and even if the No. 5 seed advances, he will go up against either Hewitt or Kei Nishikori. Soderling could then face Davydenko in round three. Djokovic should not have much trouble in his opener, but Jeremy Chardy certainly isn’t the easiest of opponents. Big-serving South African Kevin Anderson is a tough out on any surface, especially on grass.

Tell a friend »

Comments

Write comment

You have to be logged in to comment. If you do not have an account, click here to register. It only takes a minute and you'll be redirected back to this page.

Username:

Password:

Archive

Unibet Mobile prematch,live betting

Recommend Tennistalk

Follow us

Poll

Articles - Latest commented

• 
  29

  Nadal takes Rome title over Djokovic
  

  rafaisthebest, May 21, 2012 7:21 PM

• 
  352

  Djokovic, Nadal set for rematch in Rome
  

  schatz, May 21, 2012 6:14 PM

• 
  67

  Nadal headlines third-round action on Thursday
  

  vamosrafa, May 21, 2012 5:03 PM

• 
  63

  Djokovic downs Federer, into Rome final vs. Nadal
  

  brothdog, May 21, 2012 11:47 AM

• 
  3

  Family time for Federer after loss in Rome
  

  nadline, May 21, 2012 11:35 AM

Blog - Latest commented

• 
  72
  Rome final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
  

  Maya, May 21, 2012 7:00 PM

• 
  31
  And Roger Federer is BACK
  

  sabs, May 20, 2012 1:48 PM

• 
  66
  Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
  

  mara002, May 20, 2012 7:19 AM

Tell a friend

Other tennis links

• www.menstennisforums.com
• www.itftennis.com
• www.sonyericssonwtatour.com
• Tennisplaza
• More links...