that's right; SIMONE BOLELLI is listed in both hot AND upset alert

You're obsessed with Bolelli, Ricky.

well cheryl, he is very handsome....;)

hard to pick against Nole but nobody beats Rafa twice on clay, no?

maybe Soda the clay streak-breaker will finally break a tired Novak's streak...

I agree with Ricky's prediction......in fact, I want Nole to beat Rafa in Rome!

For me, Rome is not the prize for Rafa, RG is. For Rome, he only needs to get to the final. Rafa does not need to get into a "pissing" contest with Nole in Rome.......he really doesn't. Let Nole shine and dig in at RG, I say........

rafaisthebest,

I would never want Rafa to be beaten by Nole anywhere, any time. I want to see Rafa come back strong now in Rome and not wait for RG!

Rafa has a tough draw this time, so we will see. However, I will be cheering him on all the way for a win.

Here is may take on Rome: semis Djokovic over Murray, Nadal over Federer,
Finals Djokovic over Nadal

there is no point in picking against Djokovic until he actually loses a match

he's been playing a lot of tennis in the past two weeks, thankfully he has a straightforward-ish draw. the other seeds in his draw may suddenly find their form, who knows? but he should hopefully reach the semis with relative ease.

btw how long is the break between rome and RG? its around one and half weeks right..

one week

Despite his tough draw, and Nole's apparently easy one, I think Rafa will come back for the win.
Madrid is Rafa's worst clay tournament. He won MC and Barcelona, while Nole rested. In Rome they will both be in a more even position and in a court better suited to Rafa's strenghts.

I enjoy watching tennis. Rafa is my favorite player. I love his determination. The media and pundits are so quick to write off someone. Until Nole can beat Rafa more than once on clay, I do not consider him a threat. Go Rafa.

@Ricky isn't this the first time since Rafa came to the forefront that ANYONE has picked another player to win against him on clay?
Bizzare, but what I do think is that Rafa will avenge his loss his time. I was shocked at how BOTH of them played in the Madrid Final. This is the first time that Rafa enters a clay court tourney as the "underdog" but still if he assesses his game plan of attacking ND's backhand, he should( and hopefully will) win.

@stu:"tired Novak's streak" wht mak u sur that he 's tired ?? so why he withdraw MC?? just to rest , refresh !! also nole mak it clear in his ITW that he 's motived , freshed and rome is not the main goal it 's RG !! so don't count too mush that he gonna spend mush energy in rome court however his draw help him SO mush to be easly into semis, to not say final !!! ajde nole

yoya, i meant emotionally tired. if soda, verdasco, or especially rafa take it to him in Rome, i definitely wouldn't blame him for thinking: i've won a lot this year, and this is not RG, i don't want to work hard today because i just want to be home.

i'm a Nole fan over anyone else, and i hope he wins Rome, but not at the cost of RG like he did in 2009 after Madrid.

I dont get this about Rafa's brutal draw.. I mean ok Bellucci might make it competitive in one set. Ferrer has no chance against Nadal as proven by the easy wins in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, and Federer, if he gets there, might be able to make it competitive in the beginning but not more than that against Nadal nowadays and especially not on a real clay court. As I see it, the only real test for Nadal will be in an eventual final against Djokovic..

bjawad - all of that is true, but it's true because Nadal is amazing, not because he has an easy draw.

Bellucci and Lopez are two of the best unseeded players in the field. Ferrer is the best 5-8 seed. Federer is more dangerous than Murray.

So I don't see how Nadal's draw could have been any tougher.

RickyDimon: true true true

Vaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmmmmoooooooooossssssssssss!

Maybe when Rafa becomes World No 2 he'll get the easy draws. Fat chance. Rafa always gets the tough draws.

Rafa's interview in Rome:

http://www.tennistv.com/page/Video/0,,11444~1762523,00.html

http://www.easyodds.com/sports-betting/tennis-betting/atp-tour/rome-ma sters/outright.html

Professional oddsmakers still have Rafa as the heavy favourite to win the tournament even with the knowledge that he lost on clay. Roger is 12:1 against! Perhaps the oddsmakers realize that Rome is a more typically slower court (similar to RG) than Madrid. Madrid needs to slow the court down for their fellow country man. Vamos Rafa!!!

No need to slow the Madrid court. Who knows how long Rafa is going to play there? He can't continue playing four clay court events before the FO every year. Whether he chooses Barca or Madrid is up to him. Rafa can win in Madrid, he won it in 2010 beating Fed there. Rafa does not need any help from anyone when playing on clay. The Madrid court plays like a hard court, and it's tough for anyone to have to beat two of the top three guys on consecutive days to win the title. Fed won in 2009 beating Rafa without beating Nole. Rafa won in 2010 beating Fed without beating Nole. Nole won in 2011 beating Rafa without beating Fed.IMG_0017.JPG Rafa is the only unfortunate guy among the top three to have to beat both Fed and Nole back to back on two occasions, and both times he made the final beating one and lost to the other in the final. Let's see next year, can Nole beat Fed and Rafa back to back in Madrid, or Fed beating Rafa and Nole back to back.

Last year Fed was the favorite for Wimbledon and USO. What happened?
Let us not bother about who is the favorite.
Rafa always gets a tough draw. Earlier, when he was no. 2, I remember this gave rise to the myth that the top seed gets the easiest draw. Now after Rafa became no. 1, it appears that the top seed gets the toughest draw!

Most of your predictions seem fine but there is absolutely no way Berdych beats Federer. Tbh, that's a pretty weak prediction.

Yes, not sure what RD would be basing that Berdych pick on especially on clay. With the exception of that Meltzer loss, Fed has been pretty reliable winning against anyone ranked below him.

I thought Berdych played very well at Roland Garros losing narrowly to Soderling in the semis last year.
But going by his current form, I am not sure. But he definitely has the chance to upset Federer. He beat Fed at Olympics 2004 and at Wimbledon last year. So he can never be discounted.

Yes of course I agree with you that Berdych is a good player and has the potential to upset Federer but as even you have said, it would be an upset. It would not be my pick.

basically i just don't want to pick the Top 3 players in the world to make the semis in two consecutive weeks. It's hard to do, even for them. And obviously I'm not picking against Nadal or Djoker.

Berdych is in solid form and underrated on clay. 2010 French semis, close to the final. Has destroyed Monaco in 2 straight weeks. Played well against Bellucci, just ran into a buzzsaw.

Federer should have lost to Feliciano Lopez. If he can lose to FELICIANO LOPEZ on clay, he can lose to Batman.

Rafa's draw just got a little easier with Bellucci going down today.

I think Murray might surprise everyone and be in the last 4.

well Murray's draw isn't hard, so I wouldn't be surprised

and ya, Nadal basically has a bye now

I would never want Rafa to be beaten by Nole anywhere, any time. I want to see Rafa come back strong now in Rome and not wait for RG!

Rafa has a tough draw this time, so we will see. However, I will be cheering him on all the way for a win.

Nativenewyorker
, 5/9/11 7:39 PM

I hear you, Nativenewyorker, and I am with you 100%. Of course I would rather Rafa won than lost. However, given the way results have gon so far for him, I prefer to take a "strategic" approach to proceedings i.e. I prefer that he gets to Paris as fresh as possible. So, I am saying if he gets to the final in Rome and it is Nole at the other side of the net and Nole goes all out to win, defending like crazy (which he has been doing lately) then I would rather Rafa concede, conserve energy and leave everything on the court at RG, rather than in Rome. Lose the battle but win the war, so to speak?

For me, where Rafa is at his career, he has nothing to prove.......he has the Master's shields, he has the H2H over arguably the greatest player ever, he has the career GS, clay slam and on and on and on.................so I think at this point in his career Rafa should concentrate more on the majors.

I hope NNY, you now understand where I am coming from with that statement, no ill will intended towards Rafa at all.................he's my boy.

there is no point in picking against Djokovic until he actually loses a match
RickyDimon
, 5/9/11 7:51 PM


Hmmmm.......can't wait to see your RG predictions!

nadal is the one who understands best in the world that djokovic has surpassed him and that he needs to adapt his game to be No. 1 again. he will work hard to improve his game accordingly, like he did before in similar situation. hopefully he is not too old yet.

rafaisthebest,

I have no question about your support for Rafa. I understand your reasoning and have heard this same sentiment on a Rafa fan forum. I have read your posts and you have a wonderful way of expressing yourself. You are a nice addition to the Rafa fans on this forum, so go for it!

I certainly don't want Rafa to kill himself to win Rome, however I do think that getting a win here can only serve to build up his confidence and get him ready and in excellent form for RG. I guess the other argument might be that another possible loss to Nole in the final of a Masters clay tournament, would be a devastating blow.

My belief is that you cannot run and hide in these circumstances. I think the best thing is for Rafa to be out there on the court playing. I am hoping that he can adjust a few aspects of his game that are not working well right now.

Rafa got a break in not having to play Bellucci. He will win his first match with ease. Then it could be Feli or Kohls and of course, there could be Ferrer in the quarterfinals and we all know who could be in the semis. I see that Ricky is predicting Berdych to take out Fed. That's certainly reasonable. He is also predicting a Rafa/Ferrer match up again. Davy's gone already, so maybe Murray will get through this time.

I do think that Rafa should concentrate on the majors, but Masters tournaments are mandatory and Rafa is defending 1000 points here. I don't want him to hand the #1 ranking to Nole. Let him earn it, just like Rafa did. I am trying not to think too far ahead right now and just take it one match at a time. I am anxious to see how Rafa looks in his first match. Rafa said in a pre-tournament interview in Rome that he wasn not happy with the way he played in the final, so he will want to do better here.

As far as Ricky's predictions for RG, if Nole wins Rome then I expect him to predict that he will win RG.

I agree with rafaisthebest. If Rafa finds Nole wants Rome more , he will not fight a attritional battle.
He will reserve his best for Roland Garros. Let's hope he wins at least RG, if not Wimbledon.
But somehow, I do not sense hopelessness in Rafa so I think he thinks he can beat Nole.

Rafanand Nole may not meet in the final of Rome. Nole has to get past his opponents first, most likely Stan, Sod and then Murray/Simon in that order before reaching the final. Just because he has his winning streak doesn't mean that he will continue like that forever.

Rafa has himself to blame playing the way he played at the Madrid final. If he started the final like the way he played against Monfils in Barca, I don't think he'll lose, or at least not losing in straight sets. One thing Im sure, he'll not spend more than an hour per set. He played defensively ( and timidly) like he's afraid to lose. It's only until he's 0-4 down and having to save his own pride that he started fighting. In a way, this match started in a similar way like his match vs Delpo in IW. He's nervous and lost the first few games before he decided enough was enough and started fighting to save his face. Ever since his injury in 2009, his mental toughness and confidence have suffered a serious blow, realizing that his body may break down any time. The incident at AO 2010 QF ,and his recent match vs Berdych in Miami, where he's worried that something was wrong with his right shoulder and called for the trainer, were evidences of his this main concern. The illness at the beginning of the year didn't help matters. His not being able to reach the final and try his hand in getting his Rafa slam at this AO has further dampen his confidence. I think he and his camp has to reconsider his schedule, why allowing him only one day rest during last year's year end break? His body needs a good rest with the year he was having last year. With proper rest, I feel he might not let the virus affect him in the first place. (I understand he got the virus from his physio but why only him that was affected, why not the rest of his team? That's because his body was constantly under stress, unlike others'). It's a hard leson for Rafa to learn and I hope he does learn a lesson. The worst case scenario is for him not to win any slam this year and drop to maybe no.2 or no.3. If that happens, so be it. As long as Rafa learns from his mistakes and come back strong again, then the lesson is well learned. Let Nole has his time in the sun, for he truly deserves it, after working so hard and living in the shadows of Fedal for so long. If Nole becomes no. 1 and wins more slams this year, I'll congratulate and salute him.

I don't like that Rafa and Ferru are in the same quarter. They were the finalists last year, for goodness sake.

Draws are random stop complaining about the draws, Bellucci didnt event make it past the Qualifier here. With the type of form Djokovic is in I don't think Draw is a big issue it was Djokovic who had Ferrer in his half at Madrid so this time its Nadals turn to face Ferrer in Quarters. No 3 and 4 are randomly placed in separate sections. Nadal lost 1 set to Murray at Monte Carlo and 1 set to Federer at Madrid and Murray is a tougher match up for Nadal than Federer, with federer Nadal can always go to his 1 handed backhand and expect a week reply.

Another thing to remember is that their are no guarantees that all of these players Ferrer, Murray, Federer etc will make it through to the Quarterfinals and Semifinals.

So Bellucci didnt make it past Lorenzi, and Ferrer has withdrawn, so does it make Nadals path easier now.

so nadal has a cupcake draw after all... well, speculating is the purpose of this TT site anyway...

well his third-round draw is tough because Lopez made it through, but yeah quarterfinals should be a breeze

Since when did Lopez become a threat on clay? He troubled Federer last week but Federer isnt the Federer he once was and hasnt been in form for 4 months lopez is a walk in the park for nadal on any surface, more so on clay its a very easy match up for nadal.

Djokovics 3rd round match against Stan wawrinka is tougher than nadal vs lopez and Djokovics potential Qf and Sf opponents are also tougher than Nadals possible Qf and Sf Nadal will face Federer again in the Sf target Federers weak 1 handed backhand repeat 300 times and get an easy win.

RD's Berdych QF pick is suddenly looking pretty savvy even if it won't be against Federer! Not bad. Gasquet finally closed one out.

Now my predictions based on wishful thinking, no analysis, AndyM to win Rome, if not he, then Nole, if not he, then Gasquet. Note I have left out Rafa because I wish he would withdraw and not risk injury before RG.

yea, berdych vs gasquet should be interesting. too bad gasquet's so unpredictable.

i should have had the semis all right. Can't believe Simon did what he did yesterday. 3 for 4 wont be bad, though.

Altho i have NO idea what will happen in Berdych-Gasquet.

Hey Ricky,
I think Andy Murray is going to win this tournament.

Berdych is out

djokovic's so called cupcake draw compared to nadal's so called brutal draw...guess it panned out to be the complete opposite.

Ricky, you got this one with 100% accuracy!

well, not the semis, but yep, I called it!