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2011-04-25 17:47:46
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every week he previews all the upcoming tennis action.
The King of Clay just racked up two more titles, but now the King of 2011 is back. While Rafael Nadal is taking a rest in between Barcelona and Madrid, Novak Djokovic returns to the court this week at home for the Serbia Open. Djokovic is an incredible 24-0 this season, having captured four titles in four tries at the Australian Open, in Dubai, and at both U.S. Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami.
Djokovic headlines a busy week that features an impressive draw in Serbia. Countrymen Viktor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic will look to challenge Djokovic while Ernests Gulbis, John Isner, and Albert Montanes also could contend. Fernando Gonzalez, who has not played since the 2010 U.S. Open due to injury, will make his long-awaited return to ATP Tour action.
Robin Soderling and Juan Martin Del Potro lead the way in Estoril. They are joined in one of the best 250-point fields of the year by Fernando Verdasco, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, and Milos Raonic. In Munich, Mikhail Youzhny hopes to make it two titles in a row but the Russian should have plenty of competition from Stanislas Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, Marcos Baghdatis, and/or Nikolay Davydenko.
Serbia Open
Where: Belgrade, Serbia
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 416,650 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
2010 champion: Sam Querrey (not playing)
Draw analysis: Djokovic should not have too much trouble capturing his second Belgrade title and extending his 2011 record to 28-0. Isner is the other seed in Djokovic’s quarter of the draw but the 6'9'' American is not in good form at the moment. Plus, this is not the same Djokovic that got taken to five sets by Isner on clay last year during Davis Cup action in Belgrade. Nobody in the second section of the draw particularly loves the slow stuff, so Djokovic will likely coast into Sunday’s final.
Most of the danger lurks in the bottom half. Montanes is the most accomplished clay-court specialist in the tournament, Juan Monaco and Marcel Granollers do their best work on dirt, and two of the most talented players in the field are Gonzalez and Gulbis. Those guys will beat each other up before one emerges for what should be a showdown in the title match against Djokovic.
First-round upset alert: Illya Marchenko over (7) Ernests Gulbis. Marchenko is not playing good tennis right now, but neither is Gulbis. The seventh-seeded Latvian is one of the streakiest players on tour and another bad day could easily pave the way for a Marchenko victory. Their only previous meeting came last year in Washington, where the Ukrainian led 6-1, 1-0 before Gulbis retired.
Also watch out for Isner against Ricardo Mello and Monaco against Feliciano Lopez. Mello gave Isner a little trouble in Indian Wells and clay will give the Brazilian a better chance. Monaco has a clay-court edge over Lopez, but the Spaniard is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Barcelona.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Viktor Troicki, Feliciano Lopez, Kei Nishikori, Somdev Devvarman
Cold: John Isner, Ernests Gulbis, Tobias Kamke, Mischa Zverev, Dudi Sela, Fernando Gonzalez, Illya Marchenko
Semifinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Janko Tipsarevic and Albert Montanes over Viktor Troicki
Final: Djokovic over Montanes
Estoril Open
Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Robin Soderling
2010 champion: Albert Montanes (not playing)
Draw analysis: Soderling has been bothered by a knee injury over the last month, and the Estoril draw certainly did not do him any favors. The top-seeded Swede is on a collision course for the quarterfinals with Del Potro, who crushed Soderling in Miami. Del Potro, though, will likely have to go up against an on-fire Pablo Andujar in round two. Tsonga is also part of a difficult top half of the bracket.
With Verdasco in dreadful form at the bottom of the draw, the second finalist spot is wide open. None of the other seeds (Simon, Raonic, and Kevin Anderson) are at their best on clay so upsets could be plentiful. Don’t be surprised if 2010 runner-up Frederico Gil treats the hometown Portuguese crowd to another deep run. Carlos Berlocq and Igor Andreev could also capitalize on the surface to make a real impression at this event.
First-round upset alert: Igor Andreev over (5) Milos Raonic. Raonic should be able to win enough free points with his serve on clay to take this match, but anything less than a great serving day by the Canadian will open the door for Raonic. Andreev is slowly rounding into form and his heavy-topspin game is always dangerous on the slow stuff. They faced each other last fall on the hard courts of Kuala Lumpur and the Russian prevailed 6-1, 3-6, 6-3.
Hot: Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin Del Potro, Pablo Andujar, Carlos Berlocq, Frederico Gil
Cold: Robin Soderling, Fernando Verdasco, Thomaz Bellucci, Jeremy Chardy, Adrian Mannarino, Daniel Gimeno-Traver
Semifinal predictions: Juan Martin Del Potro over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon over Frederico Gil
Final: Del Potro over Simon
BMW Open
Where: Munich, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top seed: Mikhail Youzhny
Defending champion: Mikhail Youzhny
Draw analysis: Munich has the weakest field of this week’s three tournaments, but it’s still not bad by 250-point standards. Four Top 25 players are in the field—Youzhny, Wawrinka, Cilic, and Baghdatis. Davydenko, a former world No. 3, will also continue an effort to find his game on the clay courts of the BMW Open. Baghdatis probably had the most difficult draw of those five, but he took out Julien Benneteau on Monday and now has a clear path to the quarterfinals and perhaps even beyond.
A tough bottom half of the bracket boasts Wawrinka, Cilic, Davydenko, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Wawrinka will have a tough second round on his hands against either Radek Stepanek or Andrey Golubev, while Kohlschreiber’s round-two test would come in the form of either Robin Haase or Jarkko Nieminen. Cilic and Davydenko should not have any major problems setting up a marquee quarterfinal matchup.
First-round upset alert: Steve Darcis over (5) Florian Mayer. Darcis has not yet made an appearance in the main draw of an ATP even this season, but he has done some decent work on the Challenger circuit and he has already come through qualifying this week. The Belgian scored nice victories over Dominik Meffert, Jan Hernych, and Denis Gremelmayr. Darcis should be playing with confidence, and he will need it against a relatively in-form Mayer. This upset almost certainly won’t happen, but none of the other seven seeded players is going to lose.
Hot: Ivan Dodig
Cold: Marcos Baghdatis, Nikolay Davydenko, Horacio Zeballos, Simone Bolelli
Semifinals: Stanislas Wawrinka over Marin Cilic and Florian Mayer over Mikhail Youzhny
Finals: Wawrinka over Mayer
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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nice call on the Gulbis upset, it hasnt happened yet but its only a matter of time.
mriiidula , 4/26/11 1:15 PM
now it has spot-on, Ricky!
chlorostoma , 4/26/11 4:59 PM
Watching Sousa play Delpotro. Sousa certainly knows HOW to defeat Delboy, unfortunately doesn't have the weapons to do so. Perhaps anyone under 6' should be thinking of a different career....;)
deuce , 4/26/11 5:55 PM
Well, eat my words and very glad to :) Sousa takes the second set! Making Delboy look awful slow.
deuce , 4/26/11 6:21 PM
nice win Delpo. Sousa is decent.
RickyDimon , 4/26/11 7:21 PM
Ricky, he's 448, seemed much better than that.
deuce , 4/26/11 8:03 PM
Florian Mayer in the final. I TOLD YOU SO.
RickyDimon , 4/30/11 3:32 PM
why scream to boast yourself?
croc , 4/30/11 5:58 PM
Poor Delpo, strain his hip while playing against Youzhny. Commentator said it is due to the sliding on clay. Are tall guys like Delpo more susceptible to such injury? I worry for both Delpo and Cilic.
luckystar , 5/3/11 3:09 PM
Yes, luckystar, they actually are. It has to do with when their growth rates accelerated when they were young, or something.
Speaking of injuries -- does anyone know what happened to Feña? Did I read properly that he retired from a Czech match or something?
mara002 , 5/9/11 4:39 AM
Sun 20/05 03:13
Rome final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
Approach Shots: Nadal, Murray return to action in Barcelona
Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
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Thanks for the previews Ricky. Interesting that Tommy Haas is easing back by playing doubles (with Stepanek) and just great to see Fernando Gonzalez after his and his country's recovery.
smr , 4/26/11 12:47 AM