Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer back in action in Monte-Carlo

  2011-04-11 23:53:34
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  Just one week after the conclusion of hard-court Masters events in the United States, the push toward Roland Garros is furiously underway. It begins with the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, which is not a required event but still boasts a strong field.
  
  Eight of the Top 10 players in the world are participating; the only two taking a break are Novak Djokovic and Robin Soderling. So we know that Djokovic’s winning streak and perfect 2011 will continue for at least one more week. His absence also increases the likelihood of a Nadal-Federer final, which would be the 24^th career meeting between two of the best ever.

   

  Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
  

   

  Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
  Surface: Clay
  Prize money: 2,750,000 Euros
  Points: 1000

   

  Top seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

   

  Draw Analysis: The absences of Djokovic and Murray allowed a pair of men outside the Top 8 in the world rankings to get byes straight through to round two. Jurgen Melzer and Gael Monfils were the beneficiaries, but it is Monfils who has the best chance of capitalizing. The Frenchman is in a section of the draw in which Murray—in the midst of a massive struggle—is the highest seed and No. 10 seed Mikhail Youzhny is already out.
  
  Melzer made a surprising run to the 2010 French Open semifinals, but he will be hard-pressed to reach the same stage in Monte-Carlo because he is in the same quarter as Federer. Granted, the Swiss is not playing incredible tennis at the moment, but it is still a tough ask for the Austrian. Federer’s bracket also includes Marin Cilic and clay-court master Nicolas Almagro.
  
  While Murray’s quarter is the most wide open, the semifinal spot out of the draw’s third section should be up for grabs. Fourth-seeded David Ferrer caught fire during last year’s clay-court swing, but he could be challenged by plenty of talented opponents—including Ernests Gulbis, Milos Raonic, and/or fellow Spaniards Fernando Verdasco and Tommy Robredo.
  
  Nadal is arguably part of the toughest section, which also features Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, and Berdych—a 2010 Roland Garros semifinalist. Gasquet has enjoyed strong soft-court results in the past and he could meet Nadal as early as round three. Tsonga, who got past Juan Monaco on Monday, is on a collision course with Berdych for the third round.

   

  First-round upset alert: Thomaz Bellucci over (16) Gilles Simon. In their only previous meeting at the 2009 U.S. Open, Simon destroyed Bellucci in straight sets. But that one was on a fast hard court and this one is on clay. Bellucci does his best work on the slow stuff and owns both of his career titles on that surface. Simon is no slouch on clay, but he would much prefer something faster on which to play Bellucci and the Frenchman is coming off a Casablanca loss to Potito Starace.
  
  The top eight seeds all received byes to the second round, but a few of them could be in immediate danger. Murray is in brutal form and might not even be favored against Radek Stepanek. Verdasco has also been slumping and he has a tough matchup on his hands against Robredo, an all-court player who especially excels on dirt.

   

  Hot: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Olivier Rochus, Florian Mayer, Kevin Anderson, Milos Raonic, Potito Starace

   

  Cold: Andy Murray, Fernando Verdasco, Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Jeremy Chardy, Marcos Baghdatis, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Nikolay Davydenko, Andrey Golubev

   

  Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Tomas Berdych, Florian Mayer over Albert Montanes, David Ferrer over Tommy Robredo, and Roger Federer over Nicolas Almagro

   

  Semifinals: Nadal over Mayer and Federer over Ferrer

   

  Final: Nadal over Federer

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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