Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Clay-court buildup to French Open begins

  2011-04-04 06:28:37
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every week he previews all of the upcoming tennis action.

  
  

  Goodbye, hard courts. Hello, clay!
  
  The French Open is just over one month away, so it’s time for the fast and furious clay-court tuneup to get underway. It does just that this week in Houston, Texas and Casablanca, Morocco. Before Rafael Nadal returns to action and relegates everyone else to playing for second place (unless Novak Djokovic has something to say about that), events will be wide open.
  
  It is anyone’s ballgame in Houston and Casablanca with no Top 10 players in action. World No. 11 Mardy Fish is the highest-ranked man on the docket and he headlines the field at the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships. Fellow Americans Sam Querrey and John Isner will hope to challenge Fish, while Marcos Baghdatis and Gilles Simon are featured at the Grand Prix Hassan II along with top-seeded Albert Montanes.

  
  

  U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships
  
  Where: Houston, TX
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $442,500
  Points: 250

  
  

  Top Seed: Mardy Fish
  2010 Champion: Juan Ignacio Chela (not playing)

  
  

  Draw Analysis: When a clay-court tournament features none of the Top 10 players in the world and has a trio of Americans as three of the top four seeds, you know the title is completely up for grabs.
  
  That is especially the case in an extremely weak bottom half of the draw, where Querrey and Isner have first-round byes but are mired in alarming slumps. While they are far from their best on clay, they actually faced each other in a surprising final last spring in Belgrade. Still, both big men are ripe for an upset and someone like Rainer Schuettler or Horacio Zeballos could capitalize.
  
  The top section is far more difficult, as all four seeds are more dangerous on clay than any of the other four. Fish is the hottest player in the field, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has an ATP clay-court title to his credit, Kei Nishikori is lethal from the baseline and looked good in Miami, and Pablo Cuevas is a clay-court specialist who just upset Andy Roddick at the Sony Ericsson Open.
  
  And it doesn’t end there. Unseeded threats in the top section include Igor Andreev, Michael Russell, James Blake, Somdev Devvarman, and Carlos Berlocq. The lopsidedness of this Houston draw is truly unbelievable.

  
  

  First-Round Upset Alert: Rainer Schuettler over (8) Grigor Dimitrov. One of the youngest players in the field will be going up against the oldest in this opening-round clash. Dimitrov has the youth and the talent, but Schuettler is a wily veteran who has an especially decent chance considering this is on clay. Dimitrov won’t be able to power the ball through the court and—quite frankly—he has struggled to make the transition from Challengers to the ATP Tour. Look for the German to take this one.
  
  As for the top four seeds who have byes to the second round, Isner will face a tough opener against either Horacio Zeballos or Ryan Harrison. Zeballos has been struggling of late but he has enjoyed some decent Challenger showings and is always dangerous on the slow stuff. Harrison reached the Indian Wells fourth round and he returns to the scene of his first-ever ATP victory as a 15-year-old in 2008.

  
  

  Hot: Mardy Fish, Pablo Cuevas, Somdev Devvarman, Ryan Harrison, Carlos Berlocq

  
  

  Cold: Sam Querrey, John Isner, James Blake, Mischa Zverev

  
  

  Semifinal predictions: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Igor Andreev and Sam Querrey over John Isner

  
  

  Final: Garcia-Lopez over Querrey

  
  

  Grand Prix Hassan II
  

  
  

  Where: Casablanca, Morocco
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

  
  

  Top Seed: Albert Montanes
  2010 Champion: Stanislas Wawrinka (not playing)

  
  

  Draw Analysis: This does not have the same feel as the clay-court “Golden Swing” in South America a few months ago, because dirtballers are not littered throughout the entire draw. In fact, only one of the top four seeds (Montanes) and three of the eight seeds (Montanes, Potito Starace, and Fabio Fognini) are traditional clay-court specialists.
  
  That means Baghdatis (No. 2 seed) and Simon (No. 3 seed) have a good opportunity of picking up a rare title on the slow stuff. Baghdatis, though, is in uninspiring form and Simon—although he reached the Miami quarters—retired against Roger Federer with a neck problem. None of the unseeded players in the bottom half looks too scary, but Starace could take advantage if Baghdatis and Simon falter.
  
  Montanes, a proud owner of four ATP titles in nine career finals (all on outdoor clay), has a favorable draw in the top half. However, he will face a difficult opener in the form of either Filippo Volandri or Julien Benneteau. Should the top-seeded Spaniard get through to the quarterfinals, the path will be open for him to hoist another winner’s trophy. If Montanes stumbles, Andrey Golubev or Pablo Andujar should contend.

  
  

  First-Round Upset Alert: Daniel Gimeno-Traver over (8) Victor Hanescu. Gimeno-Traver is an amazingly-bad 0-8 this season, so why could he pull off a first-round surprise? Well, Hanescu has not been much better. The 6’6’’ Romanian is 3-8 and has not yet won back-to-back matches in 2011. These two faced each other in the Buenos Aires opening round two months ago, with Hanescu prevailing 6-3, 7-6(2). It’s clear Gimeno-Traver can be competitive, and this time the Spaniard might get over the hump.

  
  

  Hot: Albert Montanes, Gilles Simon, Pablo Andujar

  
  

  Cold: Marcos Baghdatis, Andrey Golubev, Potito Starace, Jeremy Chardy, Victor Hanescu, Filippo Volandri, Pere Riba, Simone Bolelli

  
  

  Semifinal predictions: Albert Montanes over Pablo Andujar and Gilles Simon over Daniel Gimeno-Traver

  
  

  Final: Montanes over Simon

  
  

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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