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2011-03-03 17:01:39
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. He previews all the action scheduled for the upcoming week.
The February streak of four straight weeks with three straight tournaments apiece is over, but March could prove to be even more chaotic. Indian Wells and Miami—the two biggest Masters events of every year—are rapidly-approaching later this month. Up first, though, is opening-round Davis Cup action all around the world.
Serbia begins its title defense at home against World Group novice India. Although the Serbs will be without Novak Djokovic, who has not lost a match in 2011 and is taking some much-deserved rest, world No. 1 Rafael Nadal will add some luster to the weekend by suiting up for Spain. The Spaniards, who triumphed in both 2008 and 2009, kick off their quest to regain the cup on the road at Belgium.
Overall, seven Top 10 players are taking part in World Group action this week. David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco join Nadal in Spain’s star-studded lineup; Robin Soderling and Sweden play host to Russia; Tomas Berdych leads the host Czech Republic against Belgium; Jurgen Melzer-led Austria looks to hold off visiting France; Andy Roddick heads to Chile along with his United States contingent.
Spain vs. Belgium
Where: Charleroi, Belgium
Surface: Indoor Hard
Spain: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco
Belgium: Xavier Malisse, Ruben Bemelmans, Olivier Rochus, Steve Darcis
Spain is a considerable favorite in every single rubber, but with an in-form Xavier Malisse on the team and with home-court advantage, Belgium actually has a chance of taking this to five. X-Man has a shot against Ferrer in the opening rubber and the Malisse-Rochus duo is a former winner of the French Open.
Of course, even if the Belgians manage to take what would be a surprising 2-1 lead, they do not have a realistic chance of finishing off the upset. Nadal, having recovered from his hamstring injury, would play Malisse in the fourth rubber and Ferrer would go up against unheralded Ruben Bemelmans in the decider. Both of those should—and would—be routs for the Spaniards.
Prediction: Spain 3, Belgium 0 (last two rubbers dead)
***note: Davis Cup ties are best three out of five matches—or "rubbers"—with two singles matches on both Friday and Sunday and doubles on Saturday. When a team wins three matches the tie is clinched and any remaining rubbers are referred to as "dead." Prior to a team winning three points, all rubbers are "live." All live rubbers are three out of five sets; dead rubbers are two out of three.***
United States vs. Chile
Where: Santiago, Chile
Surface: Clay
United States: Andy Roddick, John Isner, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Chile: Nicolas Massu, Paul Capdeville, Jorge Aguilar, Guillermo Rivera-Aranguiz
Andy Roddick skipped Davis Cup entirely last season, but it did signal an end of an era for the United States in this competition. Roddick is back for 2011, joining the staples of the American Davis Cup team—Bob and Mike Bryan. With John Isner also on board (even though he is slumping at the moment), the USA boasts one of its formidable foursomes of the last 10 years.
The problem, though, is that the Americans have to play on the clay courts of Chile. They don’t like the surface, and the Chilean fans will be rowdy as always even with top player Fernando Gonzalez out. Nicolas Massu remains dangerous on clay and Paul Capdeville is always a threat on the slow stuff. On hard courts, this would be a 3-0 whitewash for the United States. The visitors should still prevail, especially with the luxury of having one point already in the bag with the Bryan Bothers, but it could be closer than a lot of people think.
Prediction: United States 3, Chile 1
Germany vs. Croatia
Where: Zagreb, Croatia
Surface: Indoor Hard
Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, Philipp Petzschner, Christopher Kas
Croatia: Marin Cilic, Ivan Dodig, Ivo Karlovic, Antonio Veic
On paper this looks like it will be one of the more competitive first-round ties. Germany’s singles lineup features Philipp Kohlschreiber (world No. 35) and Florian Mayer (world No. 36), and Croatia is going with Marin Cilic (world No. 20) and Ivan Dodig (world No. 57). Both Kohlschreiber and Cilic are in mediocre form, while Mayer and Dodig are heading for their best years on tour.
Given the apparent parity in this matchup, it will likely come down to home-court advantage. The crowd should be able to pull Cilic through to victories over Mayer in the opening rubber and against Kohlschreiber in the fourth rubber. Even Dodig has a real shot at getting the best of Kohlschreiber in rubber No. 2 on Friday. Doubles is also likely to play a crucial role in this tie, and four capable doubles players are set to contest it—Dodig and Ivo Karlovic for Croatia, Philipp Petzschner and Christopher Kas for Germany.
Prediction: Croatia 3, Germany 1
Russia vs. Sweden
Where: Stockholm, Sweden
Surface: Indoor Hard
Russia: Igor Andreev, Teymuraz Gabashvili, Igor Kunitsyn, Dmitry Tursunov
Sweden: Robin Soderling, Joachim Johansson, Robert Lindstedt, Simon Aspelin
This Swedish team is an intriguing bunch that has a chance of doing serious damage in the 2011 Davis Cup competition. Soderling is one of the hottest players in the world at the moment as is the highest-ranked player in action this week outside of Nadal. Joining the world No. 4 in Sweden’s singles lineup is Joachim Johansson, a former Top 10 player making yet another return from injury. With a healthy Johansson (although you never know if he is or if he isn’t) and a great doubles team of Simon Aspelin and Robert Lindstedt, the Swedes are for real.
They should not have much trouble at home against an undermanned Russian squad. Mikhail Youzhny recently announced his retirement from Davis Cup, Nikolay Davydenko is not playing, and Dmitry Tursunov (although clearly on the way back up) is still working the post-injury kinks out of his game. This one should be over on Saturday.
Prediction: Sweden 3, Israel 1
In other ties, Serbia hosts India, Argentina hosts Romania, Austria hosts France, and the Czech Republic hosts Kazakhstan.
Predictions: Serbia 3, India 0 – Argentina 3, Romania 0 – France 3, Austria 2 – Czech Republic 3, Kazakhstan 1
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Go Team USA!
numero , 3/4/11 3:31 AM
Er, I don't think Russia and Israel are quite the same country.
In other thoughts, I was shocked at the Russian lineup. I didn't even realise it was Russia's when I first saw the draws, until I saw Tursunov's name. It's such an underwhelming team for them.
faem , 3/4/11 4:29 AM
Serbia vs. India
Wow the Indians are really fighting hard! Viktor went to 5 sets against Bappanna, ranked 600+, and Janko LOST to Devaraman! If Paes / Bhupati were playing the doubles I would think they actually had a shot, but Bappana and Devaraman seem to be shouldering the Davis cup responsibility by themselves for their country...
stu , 3/5/11 2:11 PM
I wonder why Bhupathi and Paes did not play?
holdserve , 3/5/11 10:07 PM
stu - its Bopanna :D
Bhupathi and Paes probably didnt play coz they probably thought it was a lost case, considering they were playing the defending champions. besides, they arent too keen on davis cup much are they.
mriiidula , 3/7/11 12:38 AM
Wasn't Paes once the star of the Indian Davis cup team? What happened? Bhupathi, I read somewhere, got married recently. It is a shame they did not take part. I think it was too much for Devvarman to play three matches back to back. If he had not played the doubles, he might have had a chance in the reverse singles. And , of course, Bhupathi and Paes had a better chance of clinching the doubles. Anyway, I suppose, Serbia deserved the victory more because I doubt that India could have won against USA in the next round. Serbia, of course, have their Novak.
vij , 3/7/11 4:00 AM
Serbia meet Sweden in the next round. Spain meet USA.
vij , 3/7/11 4:08 AM
Serbia vs Sweden will be interesting. Where will they play, in Serbia or in Sweden?
luckystar , 3/7/11 8:01 AM
In Sweden
holdserve , 3/7/11 9:18 AM
In Sweden, so I suppose the Swede will choose the fastest indoor hard court. With Sod and Johannson both being big servers, the Swede may stand a chance, though not a high one.
Most interesting tie should be Spain vs USA. I suppose the US will choose the quickest indoor hard court too, they also have two big servers: Roddick and Isner. If Rafa is not too tired and playing, Spain has a good chance of beating US, as long as Rafa can serve the way he serves like last year's USO. Rafa and Ferrer are both better returner of serves than Roddick and Isner. They have to win three of the four singles matches, as I don't think Verdasco/Lopez can beat the Bryan brothers in the doubles.
luckystar , 3/7/11 9:53 AM
If it's a fast court shouldn't US pick Fish? Can't see how Isner could beat Ferrer. Do wish Lopez would take himself and his game a heck of a lot more seriously. He's a beautiful player...in all ways....;)
deuce , 3/7/11 10:37 AM
@luckystar, 3/7/11 9:53 AM
I read somewhere that USA might choose grass.
Augustina08 , 3/7/11 11:33 AM
Grass? The Spaniards can play on grass too! Rafa aside, Ferrer has won a title on grass, in the Netherlands one year, 2008 I think. Lopez's game works well on grass, his S& V game had alllowed him to reach the QF at Wimbledon, in 2008, though he lost to the inspired Safin in the QF that year. Come to think of it, the Spaniards can play on any surface, maybe except on ice!
luckystar , 3/7/11 12:12 PM
vij,
yea Paes used to take part quite significantly, even played singles although he hates it so much. Bhupathi doesnt play often does he. shame, i think this year they couldve given Serbia a serious scare, especially since Nole wasnt playing.
mriiidula , 3/7/11 1:17 PM
the USA will choose indoor hard
and i don't expect Rafa to play unless he somehow loses early at Wimbledon
RickyDimon , 3/7/11 3:09 PM
Rafa will play, as he knows his team needs him, tired or not. Have to see how he fares during the clay season, but I feel he'll do better than his 2010. He was all emotional and in fact pressurized during the 2010 clay season, not forgetting having his knee treatments just before Rome and still feeling pain in the knees from the treatment while playing in Rome.(no wonder his performance in Rome was so much different from that at Monte Carlo, given the field is about the same at Rome). If Rafa can sweep through the clay season comfortably this year, I feel he'll have a wonderful grass season as well (ie no five sets matches) as no more emotional burden this year. He may be able to repeat the clay-grass slam victories again and goes on to play the DC tie in the US. I'm positive Rafa will do better this year as there's no more emotional burden and hopefully no more knee issues, even though I understand that the competition is getting keener these days. (re competition getting keener, not only for Rafa but also for the rest of the players as well; it's not only Rafa that has to deal with the up and comers , Fed/Nole/Murray/Sod too have to deal with them).
luckystar , 3/7/11 4:11 PM
Luckystar, great point.
The good thing about the elimination format is that half the competition is on the other side and you meet only the last survivor.
In Grand Slam tournaments, you meet only 6 out of 63 others on your side and one from the other side.
So, Rafa has the help of his great rivals to dispose of the competition. He just has to take care of 7. The remaining 120 are beaten by others.
holdserve , 3/7/11 8:24 PM
So...we WILL SEE Nole Sod duel in near future... I can hardly wait... but not completely calm :))
zare , 3/9/11 1:10 AM
luckystar,
how do you know? have you see them play on ice? ;-)
chlorostoma , 3/9/11 7:35 PM
Ha ha, chloro, no of course! Judging by the way the Spaniards have been gliding on clay, I think they can master skating on ice too!
luckystar , 3/10/11 5:26 AM
Sun 20/05 03:13
Rome final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
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Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
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Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
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Should be a great weekend of tennis!
smr , 3/4/11 1:14 AM