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Ricky Dimon

  • Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic return in Dubai

    2011-02-21 17:31:26

    “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

     

    You know it’s a great week when Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are playing for the first time in a month yet there is still plenty of intrigue at other events around the world. Federer and Djokovic return this week in Dubai, but that’s not all….

     

    …What will Andy Roddick do for an encore in Delray Beach after winning Memphis in dramatic fashion? Is Juan Martin Del Potro’s comeback going to produce his first title in more than a year? Will Milos Raonic keep up his unbelievable hot streak even though he is moving from hard courts to the clay of Acapulco? Can Nicolas Almagro take three straight titles? Fasten your seatbelts, because the month of February wraps up with one of the most exciting non-Slam, non-Masters weeks of the year.

     

    Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

     

    Where: Dubai, UAE
    Surface
    : Hard
    Prize Money
    : $1,619,500
    Points
    : 500

     

    Top Seed: Roger Federer
    Defending Champion
    : Novak Djokovic

     

    Draw Analysis: This has to be one of the more bizarre draws we have ever seen on the ATP Tour. Every single wild card and qualifier is in the top half of the bracket. Even beyond that, all three wild cards are in the top section and all four qualifiers are in the second quarter.

     

    It’s wild-card haven for Federer, who opens with Somdev Devvarman and should not have much trouble reaching the semifinals. A slumping Ernests Gulbis is Federer’s nearest seed and the Swiss probably won’t have to face anyone tougher than Dmitry Tursunov (a potential second-round opponent) prior to the last eight.

     

    While none of the qualifiers is an especially big name with a great chance of making a run, the second quarter of the draw is wide open. Seeds Mikhail Youzhny and Ivan Ljubicic are not playing great tennis, so Gilles Simon or Richard Gasquet could take advantage.

     

    The bottom half of the draw is far more difficult, with Novak Djokovic in the same section as Marcos Baghdatis and Tomas Berdych in the same quarter with Viktor Troicki, Nikolay Davydenko, and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Djokovic, the two-time defending champion in Dubai, has a tough opener on his hands in the form of Michael Llodra.

    First-Round Upset Alert: Gilles Simon over (4) Mikhail Youzhny. The seventh time was not the charm for Simon against Youzhny last week in Marseille. The Frenchman is now 0-7 lifetime versus the Russian after another three-set loss. Still, Simon has a good chance of making it eighth time lucky. Youzhny is not exactly in outstanding form and he could be fatigued coming off a relatively long week in which he ended up falling to Marin Cilic in a third-set tiebreaker in the semifinals.

     

    Hot: Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Florian Mayer, Dmitry Tursunov

     

    Cold: Ernests Gulbis, Nikolay Davydenko, Jeremy Chardy, Andrey Golubev

     

    Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Gilles Simon and Novak Djokovic over Tomas Berdych

     

    Final: Djokovic over Federer

     

    Abierto Mexicano Telcel

     

    Where: Acapulco, Mexico
    Surface
    : Clay
    Prize Money
    : $1,100,000
    Points
    : 500

     

    Top Seed: David Ferrer
    Defending Champion
    : David Ferrer

     

    Draw Analysis: Throw Raonic and Alexandr Dolgopolov into the mix with some of the game’s best clay-courters and what you have is an outstanding field in Acapulco (even with David Nalbandian and Tommy Robredo having withdrawn).

    Ferrer, the No. 1 seed and defending champion, has the best draw of the top players in this event. The Spaniard should cruse into the quarters, at which point he would likely face a relatively out-of-form Juan Monaco. In the semis, Ferrer would get whoever emerges from a brutal second quarter of the bracket that includes Raonic, Dolgopolov, and Stanislas Wawrinka.

     

    At the bottom of the draw, Verdasco has a far more difficult path than Ferrero. But there is great news, yet, for Verdasco…. He cannot play Milos Raonic until the final!!!!! Verdasco, who lost to Raonic in both San Jose and Memphis, opens against tough clay-courter Thomaz Bellucci before a possible quarterfinal with Buenos Aires runner-up Juan Ignacio Chela.

     

    Albert Montanes and an on-fire Almagro should not have too much trouble in a relatively weak third section of the bracket. Unless Almagro is just absolutely gassed, don’t expect anything or anyone to stand in the way of an Almagro-Montanes quarterfinal clash.

     

    First-Round Upset Alert: Eduardo Schwank over (8) Juan Ignacio Chela. Based on their first-round matchups, none of the eight seeded players in Acapulco should make an early exit. Schwank, though, at least has some chance to send Chela home early. Chela has played three straight weeks and has made a quarterfinal, semifinal, and final in succession. While he is in impressive form, the eighth-seeded Argentine has played 15 matches already this season and is coming off a long week in Buenos Aires in which he played three matches combined on Saturday and Sunday. Schwank is not playing great tennis right now, but he is capable of turning in a good performance every now and then on clay.

     

    Hot: David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Stanislas Wawrinka, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Juan Ignacio Chela, Milos Raonic

     

    Cold: Horacio Zeballos, Victor Hanescu, Eduardo Schwank, Thomaz Bellucci

     

    Semifinal Predictions: Fernando Verdasco over Nicolas Almagro and Stanislas Wawrinka over David Ferrer

     

    Final: Wawrinka over Verdasco

     

    Delray Beach International Tennis Championships

     

    Where: Delray Beach, Florida
    Surface: Hard
    Prize Money
    : $442,500
    Points
    : 250

     

    Top Seed: Andy Roddick
    Defending Champion
    : Ernests Gulbis (not playing)

     

    Draw Analysis: What a difference a year makes for Delray Beach. Last year, Tommy Haas was the No. 1 seed. Benjamin Becker was the No. 3 seed! Michael Russell was seeded. Ernests Gulbis won the tournament!

    This time around, a much stronger field is making its way to South Florida. Even if Roddick pulls out (as many suspect following his Memphis triumph), it is still a stellar draw. Big-serving Americans John Isner, Sam Querrey, and Mardy Fish are all on board. South African Open champion Kevin Anderson and Memphis semifinalist Juan Martin Del Potro are also part of the event, along with rising stars Kei Nishikori, Richard Berankis, and Ryan Harrison.

     

    If Roddick plays and is 100 percent, he should make a run to the weekend. His potential quarterfinal opponents include a rusty Ivo Karlovic and No. 6 seed Janko Tipsarevic, whom the American dismissed in Memphis. Querrey, Nishikori, or Blake should reach the semis out of the second quarter of the bracket.

     

    A slightly stronger bottom section of the draw will feature plenty of big-hitting; from Fish, Isner, Del Potro, and Anderson. Isner and Del Potro, who faced each other in the Memphis first round, are on another collision course for round two. Harrison has a decent draw and could make it to the quarters, while Berankis has to open against Del Potro.

     

    First-Round Upset Alert: (WC) James Blake over (7) Benjamin Becker. Blake has been playing the kind of tennis that suggests his career is coming to a close, but he’s not quite done yet and still winning the occasional match. Sure, that sounds next to awful for a guy formerly ranked No. 4 in the world, but it could be enough to oust Becker in the first round this week. Blake is 3-0 lifetime against Becker (including a 2007 Delray Beach semifinal) and has dropped only one set in the trio of matches.

     

    Hot: Andy Roddick, Kevin Anderson, Adrian Mannarino, Ivan Dodig, Richard Berankis,

     

    Cold: Sam Querrey, Dudi Sela, Julien Benneteau, Ivo Karlovic, Igor Andreev, Teymuraz Gabashvili, Leonardo Mayer, Rainer Schuettler

     

    Semifinal Predictions: Sam Querrey over Janko Tipsarevic and Mardy Fish over John Isner

     

    Final: Fish over Querrey

     

    Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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Comments

oh no ricky, you picked djokovic to win! he doesnt get too far when that happens :/ ;)

mriiidula , 2/21/11 7:24 PM


yep, he's pretty much done for

RickyDimon , 2/21/11 7:45 PM


The Dubai draw seems to defy odds. Was it done behind closed doors? Or is Federer having a pact with the devil?

Re: your predictions, I don't know about Dubai, but in Acapulco, I would put Almagro over Verdasco and Ferrer over Almagro.
About Delray beach, if Roddick is not ill, he should win.

vij , 2/21/11 11:16 PM


I'll take Fed in dubai....for sure....and i would never include Blake in ANY kind of upset alert these days. Scoot from Atl.

scoot , 2/22/11 4:33 AM


I'll go with :
Federer for Dubai.
Tipsarevic/Delpo for Delray Beach.
Wawrinka/Ferer for Acapulco.

I think Raonic will fail to make it to semis or final because he has played 6 three setter matches in a row(5 in 5 days) if I am not wrong.

champ00289 , 2/22/11 5:07 AM


It seems Raonic has followed up his last-minute entry with a last-minute withdrawal. Draw sheet shows he's been replaced by Munoz de la Nava.

yudude , 2/22/11 6:56 AM


Fed, Delpot, Amalgro.

deuce , 2/22/11 8:33 AM


i still say youzhny should beat simon. but the russian is playing way to much tennis now...

croc , 2/22/11 1:47 PM


VAMOS NOVAK !!!!!

homos , 2/22/11 2:34 PM


now what happened to tursonov! i thought he was on his way up again!!

croc , 2/22/11 3:19 PM


told you Blake would dispose of Becker!

RickyDimon , 2/22/11 7:41 PM


So everyone said...he can't beat Fed two times in row... on AO!!!
Hehe.... against this very well fixed draw Nole will wipe him in two sets.
If he reach the finale... don't forget cryptonit is there...and Simon is already dismantled Misha...
I really don't want to speak anymore about Fed's luck in draws... it is so obvious, from tournament to tournament, so why don't we call it with real name: shame and fixing!
So sick of it. To watch Rafa, Nole and Andy spiting blood, sweat and tears to reach QF or SF and Mr Arrogant always have walk in park.
Something is really sick on ATP tour.

zare , 2/22/11 9:32 PM


Roger's succession of cup cake draws really try our credulity.

vij , 2/23/11 12:22 AM


Sometimes Man proposes but God disposes. The USO draw seemed tougher for Rafa but ultimately like the red sea parted for Moses, the draw opened up for Rafa and he reached the final without getting knackered.
I suspect that at Dubai, Djoko is going to repeat AO.

vij , 2/23/11 12:42 AM


"Sometimes Man proposes but God disposes"

There's another -- "Man appoints, but God disappoints."

Von , 2/23/11 7:53 AM


I really don't want to speak anymore about Fed's luck in draws...
zare 2/22/11 9:32 PM

Roger's succession of cup cake draws really try our credulity.
vij 2/23/11 12:22 AM

Like the draw wasnt easy enough, Gulbis is about to lose methinks.

mriiidula , 2/23/11 1:45 PM


Fed's kryptonite might just do it failing that Nole will get him in the final.

nadline , 2/23/11 2:09 PM


gilles simon seems to be on the brink of victory here. does he play fed next? that match should be very interesting. i hope simon will be able to hang on to his h2h lead and lengthen it.

mriiidula , 2/23/11 3:15 PM


Federer plays Stakhovsky and Gilles Simon plays Richard Gasquet. Hope Simon wins because if Gasquet does, he is more likely to lose to Fed in the next round.

vij , 2/24/11 3:23 AM


The way Simon plays in this tournament, I don't think he can trouble Fed. Unless he can pick up his game and plays like in the 3rd & 4th sets of AO, and his 2008 TMC match against Fed, I don't think he can beat Fed. Simon was so quick in that TMC match and he not only counter punched, he also attacked at the same time, catching Fed by surprise many times during that match. I loved the way Simon played during that match, hitting winners when you least expected it. If he survives Gasquet to meet Fed, I hope he can play like that TMC match.

luckystar , 2/24/11 4:34 AM


its funny that we talk of simon being fed's kryptonite, but gasquet seems to be simon's. i remember the year when simon was in the top 10 (2009?) and everyone expected him to go far in a certain tournament. he was due to play gasquet and lost to him in straights, even though gasquet was on a decline and promptly lost in the next round in easy straights.

mriiidula , 2/24/11 11:40 AM


And Youzhny and Murray are Simon's kryptonite. Nalby is Cilic's kryptonite, Murray is Delpo's kryptonite, Cilic and Sod are Davy's kryptonite....

luckystar , 2/24/11 11:54 AM


I sure hope Murray turns into Fed's kryptonite. He has the game but sadly not the mental toughness in GS finals to remain green (kryptonite) and turns into harmless red.
Hope he meets Fed in a GS semifinal and gains revenge for all the mind games this master of gamesmanship played on young, vulnerable Muzza. I am sure such a victory would turn Andy Murray into a permanent green kryptonite for Fed even in finals.

vij , 2/24/11 9:05 PM


I hope so too to see Murray vs Fed in a slam semi or QF, just so Murray may not have that much pressure. Of course not on clay though, as I know Murray won't stand a chance against Fed on clay.

I think Simon got beaten by Gasquet when Simon's good run from mid 2008 to early 2009 came to an end. He later suffered his knee injuries and had to rest for months. After his injury, he's no longer the same player. It's until this year that he's finally back on track, still not at the same level as his 2008 yet but getting closer now.

luckystar , 2/25/11 3:29 AM


vij, stoppit! Don't remind me, I keep seething when I think about Fed's mind games towards Andy and I'm not a seething person at all in real life ;) BTW I didn't understand about WTF places, duh, so thanx for explaining.
lucky: I know u r a Simon fan like me, but I've watched a couple of his matches and something has definitely gone out of his game, a spark of aggression or something?

deuce , 2/25/11 8:33 AM


Yes, something has gone missing in Simon's game. I like his game in 2008 because he is not only a good counter puncher but he can attack too. His brand of tennis is like Murray's, except that he doesn't have Murray's weapons; ie serve and great backhand. He's quick around the court and he can seize the right moment to attack. In his match against Fed at TMC Shanghai, when Fed thought he had won the point, I saw Simon suddenly rushed in and slam a cross court backhand for a winner, or a backhand down the line to win the point; there's no hesitation. I marvelled at him for beating Fed twice in that year, when his shot making was no where near Fed's. He won because of his good tactical brain and his quick action and reaction, no hesitation and seize the opportunity to go for the kill. After his injury, he's no longer as quick as before, though still quick, and he has more errors in the execution of his shots. He can still be briliant as shown in his AO match against Fed and will always be a dangerous opponent just like Murray. I know Nole feels all irritated when playing against him as Simon doesn't seem to go away and it takes a great effort to 'get rid' of him.

luckystar , 2/25/11 11:46 AM


lucky, deuce: some time ago, ed25 posted that in a DC round (can't remember against which country), guy forget made a mess of simon; giving him some lecture on court that just about reduced simon to tears and simon has never been the same since. i wonder if that has contributed to simon's performance in addition to his injuries. i've not seen ed25 here lately or else we could ask her for more details as i never saw that incident but she posted about it a few times.

homos , 2/26/11 3:25 AM


homos: Forget did the same to Paul henri mathieu when he played Davis cup and lost. Since then, PHM has been a different player and a bundle of nerves. It's sad how very damaging words can be especially when said at the wrong time. Perhaps, Forget could have gottten his message across to both guys, after the pain of the loss had subsided and he wasn't so angry.

I like Brad Gilber's humor, but he's similar to Forget with respect to berating the players. I think the two Andys would have done well under his tutelage if Brad was a bit more patient and used more kindness than his usual brusque attitude.

Von , 2/26/11 6:50 AM


Well maybe what Forget did to Simon had really dampen his spirit, so much so that it affected his confidence. I'm hoping now that Simon has started to win tournament again(Sydney), he'll get back to his best form again, he's 27 now so he's still young enough to win some more tournaments and has a few more good years in the tour. He may not be in top ten again, but if he regularly stays in top 20 or even top 15, his career should be considered a good one.

luckystar , 2/26/11 9:26 AM


congrats ricky, overall good call ;)

mriiidula , 2/27/11 1:56 PM


So everyone said...he can't beat Fed two times in row... on AO!!!
Hehe.... against this very well fixed draw Nole will wipe him in two sets.
zare , 2/22/11 9:32 PM

good call from zare too :)

homos , 2/27/11 3:21 PM


Well, that was an excellent call by Ricky! And zare! I think Nole has found himself and is producing some good tennis without the histrionics and other drama that we saw in the past. I give him credit for hunkering down and being all business. It's producing great results.

Nativenewyorker , 2/27/11 8:04 PM


I am glad younger players are stepping up to the plate. It wasn't good for tennis to have a player past his prime dominating the younger players. We must rejoice at this surge by Djokovic. I hope Murray too is able to find whatever it is he is missing to win slams. Del Potro and Dolgopolov, sort of mid-next-gen-and-the-present are great too but I don't expect either of them to win any slams this year. It is also exciting to find next-gen players like Raonic, Tomic giving seeded players a fright.
Although, I root for Rafa most of the time, 4 years later if the new generation starts beating him, I will be happy for that is the natural order of things and bodes well for the future of tennis.

vij , 2/27/11 11:37 PM


vij,

I agree with you. I also happen to think that Rafa thrives on this kind of competition and challenge. It's good for the sport and the fans. It would be nice to see Murray get it together and win a slam.

Nativenewyorker , 2/28/11 6:02 AM



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