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2011-02-14 05:55:26
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
There’s no rest for the weary as the wild month of February, which includes a total of 12 tournaments, continues. There’s also no rest for the champions. All three of last week’s winners back in action this week. Robin Soderling, who has now won back-to-back titles in Rotterdam, moves on to Marseille. San Jose champion Milos Raonic, the current sensation of the ATP Tour, gets back to the grind in Memphis and is already set for yet another meeting with San Jose runner-up Fernando Verdasco. As for the “Golden Swing” on the clay courts of South America, Nicolas Almagro makes his way from Costa do Sauipe to Buenos Aires.
Regions Morgan Keegan Championships
Where: Memphis, Tennessee
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: $1,100,000
Points: 500
Top Seed: Andy Roddick
Defending Champion: Sam Querrey
Draw Analysis: Even for the top players in this tournament, danger lurks every step of the way in what is a wide-open draw. Ironically, Raonic and Verdasco will be going head-to-head in the first round just a few days after doing battle in the San Jose final. John Isner, last year’s Memphis runner-up, has to go up against San Jose semifinalist Juan Martin Del Potro. Memphis defending champion Sam Querrey opens with San Jose quarterfinalist Denis Istomin, and top-seeded Andy Roddick is set to face up-and-coming Lithuanian Richard Berankis, who advanced to the third round of the Australian Open.
Even with Gael Monfils having pulled out due to a wrist injury, the top half of the draw is still easily the toughest. Del Potro and Isner are there, Roddick is there, Xavier Malisse (now the No. 9 seed after getting bumped up to replace Monfils) is there, and unseeded threats Lleyton Hewitt, Janko Tipsarevic, and Ivo Karlovic also loom large.
Verdasco would normally be a significant favorite in the bottom section of the bracket, but he will be tired after a long week in San Jose and his first-round draw (Raonic) is brutal. The Spaniard triumphed in San Jose last season and then promptly dropped his Memphis opener to Jeremy Chardy. If the Raonic/Verdasco winner falters, a host of struggling Americans (Querrey, Mardy Fish, and James Blake) could capitalize.
First-Round Upset Alerts: Lleyton Hewitt over (7) Yen-Hsun Lu, (WC) Juan Martin Del Potro over (6) John Isner, Denis Istomin over (5) Sam Querrey, and (WC) Milos Raonic over (2) Fernando Verdasco.
None of these would really be upsets; not Raonic/Verdasco after what happened in San Jose on Sunday. Hewitt is expected to beat Lu, Del Potro was ranked well ahead of Isner when healthy, and Querrey is in dismal form.
Hot: Fernando Verdasco, Kevin Anderson, Richard Berankis, Adrian Mannarino, Ivan Dodig, Ricardo Mello, Milos Raonic
Cold: Sam Querrey, Ivo Karlovic, Rainer Schuettler, Dudi Sela, James Blake
Semifinal predictions: Andy Roddick over John Isner and Fernando Verdasco over Denis Istomin
Final: Roddick over Verdasco
Open 13
Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: 576,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Robin Soderling
Defending Champion: Michael Llodra
Draw Analysis: Rotterdam finalists Soderling and Tsonga won’t have a rematch in Marseille unless they both make it to the final, but there is a first-round rematch of sorts. Either Michael Llodra or Julien Benneteau is going to see a flood of ranking points come off the board soon because last year’s champion and runner-up are going head-to-head in the first round this time. The winner will be a potential quarterfinal opponent for Soderling in the top section of the bracket.
Soderling has a favorable draw, as the bottom half if decidedly tougher. The third quarter is especially difficult, with seeds Tsonga and Mikhail Youzhny joined by Nikolay Davydenko, Gilles Simon, and Sergiy Stakhovsky. Davydenko and Simon have to face each other in the first round, with the winner set to go up against Youzhny.
Second-seeded Tomas Berdych could be tested at the bottom of the bracket by either Ernests Gulbis or Marin Cilic. In a relatively wide-open second section, Jurgen Melzer should receive plenty of competition from Ivan Ljubicic, Robin Haase, Dmitry Tursunov, and/or Andrey Golubev.
First-Round Upset Alert: Philipp Petzschner over (7) Ernests Gulbis. Ineterstingly, Petzschner got into the Rotterdam main draw because of Gulbis’ withdrawal due to sickness. Of course, it did not end up mattering much since Petzschner continued his struggles and lost in the first round to Thiemo De Bakker. Gulbis, though, is not in particularly good form himself. He registers at a career-high ranking of No. 21 in the world, but he is about to have a boatload of points come off the board. Both of these guys are streaky, so it could go either way. Even if Gulbis is 100 percent, an upset is very possible.
Hot: Robin Soderling, Nicolas Mahut
Cold: Ernests Gulbis, Julien Benneteau, Andreas Seppi, Nikolay Davydenko, Philipp Petzschner, Marin Cilic
Semifinal predictions: Michael Llodra over Jurgen Melzer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Tomas Berdych
Final: Tsonga over Llodra
Copa Claro
Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $478,900
Points: 250
Top Seed: Nicolas Almagro
Defending Champion: Juan Carlos Ferrero (not playing)
Draw Analysis: Almagro prevailed at the Brasil Open as the top seed, and he has top billing this week as well. Being the No. 1 seed, though, does not necessarily guarantee a favorable draw. Alexandr Dolgopolov, whom Almagro beat in Saturday’s title match, is in the same top quarter of the Buenos Aires draw. Nobody else in that section looks able to prevent a quarterfinal rematch between Almagro and Dolgopolov.
The entire top half of the bracket is unquestionably the toughest, as it also features David Nalbandian and Tommy Robredo in the second quarter. Nalbandian faces a tough opener against Potito Starace, but both veterans should be able to make their ways to the last eight.
Buenos Aires also welcomes the return of Stanislas Wawrinka for the first time since he progressed to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. Wawrinka, seeded second this week, also won a title in Chennai last month. The Swiss has a great draw and is heavily favored to reach the final, but he could be tested by clay-court specialists like Juan Monaco, Albert Montanes, and Juan Ignacio Chela.
First-Round Upset Alert: (WC) Maximo Gonzalez over (6) Tommy Robredo. Gonzalez missed the majority of 2010 due to injury, but he enjoyed his best result in a while by reaching the Santiago quarterfinals—a run that included a win over Juan Monaco. Gonzalez ended up losing to Robredo, but Robredo can be inconsistent. The Spaniard won the Santiago title then somehow lost to Pablo Andujar in Costa do Sauipe. Robredo should be able to take care of business again, but Gonzalez has a chance—especially at home in Argentina.
Hot: Nicolas Almagro, Stanislas Wawrinka, Tommy Robredo, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Pablo Andujar
Cold: Leonardo Mayer, Lukasz Kubot, Jose Acasuso, Horacio Zeballos, Igor Andreev, Victor Hanescu
Semifinal predictions: Stanislas Wawrinka over Juan Ignacio Chela and David Nalbandian over Nicolas Almagro
Final: Wawrinka over Nalbandian
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Wow croc, bold prediction. Roddick has too much fire power, ie his serves, for Berankis. Berankis can't even beat Ferrer at the AO, so I doubt he can beat Roddick on home soil.
luckystar , 2/14/11 3:08 PM
Roddick and Verdasco in the final? I thought Ricky you mentioned that Raonic and Verdasco would be tired after San Jose? I think both Raonic and Verdasco would not go far in this tournament.
The Marseille tournament is loaded with good players for a 250 event. Practically all those from Rotterdam play there. Sod having some bandages on his knee, so I think he may have problems and lose early. Tsonga would be tired too. I think Llodra has a good chance of defending his title being on home ground, though he has to be careful of Ljuby, who had beaten him in the Lyon 2009 final. I think Llodra can beat the other players, the likes of Berdych, Davy, Simon, Melzer, Benneteau, Cilic and Gulbis. Llodra is really very good on indoor hard courts and I noticed he plays well on home ground.
luckystar , 2/14/11 3:25 PM
fatigue does not necessarily guarantee a LOSS
who in the abysmally bad bottom half of the Memphis draw can beat Verdasco? (other than Raonic)
RickyDimon , 2/14/11 3:30 PM
Haven't seen anything of Andy to know what his form is but think the winner of that will come through to meet Delpot, on the other side Raoinic and...oh heck Ricky you're right..ok um make a decision..Fish!
Next one, hmm depends how Sod's playing...like Tsonga and Berdych too and Meltzer looked poor but am also unsure of Llodra who over-promises and under-delivers IMHO. have to make a decision...so I'm going for Soderling , Llodra, Berdych Tsonga for semis.
Last seemed easier, Dolgopolov ( to have got revenge) Gonzales over Nalbandian (who seems a bit of a spent force) Wawrinka and Chela for the semis.
Now watch me crash and burn ..;) but all good fun :)
deuce , 2/14/11 6:37 PM
söderling and llodra are in the same quarters. llodra has a game that söderling couldn't handle so well before, the frenchman may well come out on top of that meeting.
croc , 2/15/11 9:28 AM
croc..oops..too many tournaments...ok I pick Sod on that one, if Troicki can beat Llodra, am sure your man can...;)
deuce , 2/15/11 7:11 PM
Roddick down a set.
numero , 2/16/11 2:44 AM
the top seeded players have such advantages. tsonga played one match yesterday and has another one today. söderling is entering marseille tournament only tomorrow. they both played finals on sunday.
croc , 2/16/11 11:42 AM
Verdasco lost again. Well this time at least he did break Raonic's serve in the second set. Let's see how far Raonic can progress this time.
luckystar , 2/17/11 4:27 AM
"..who in the abysmally bad bottom half of the Memphis draw can beat Verdasco? (other than Raonic)..."
The draw at Memphis is pathetically lopsided ... all of the fire-power is in the top half. That's par for the course whenever roddick plays as he always seems to land in the half of the draw that's the toughest, and mostly in Fed's half. i wonder why??? Thankfully, Fed's not playing at Memphis.
Von , 2/18/11 10:37 AM
interesting scenario today in the finals. in all three tournaments there are players chasing consecutive titles.
i think only söderling will win.
croc , 2/20/11 12:39 PM
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berankis to take out roddick
croc , 2/14/11 12:31 PM