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2011-02-07 20:00:41
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
So much for taking time off.
Andy Murray, who considered taking an extensive break from tennis after his third career Grand Slam final loss at the Australian Open, is back to the grind just over a week later. Murray will take the court this week at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament, a big 500-point event in Rotterdam. The fifth-ranked Scot is joined in a strong field that also includes Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
The SAP Open in San Jose and the Brasil Open in Costa do Sauipe are also on the schedule, which is in its second of four consecutive weeks with a trio of tournaments. Fernando Verdasco is defending his title in San Jose while Tommy Robredo, who triumphed at the Movistar Open on Sunday, is bidding for another victory in Costa do Sauipe having prevailed there in 2009.
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: 1,450,000 Euros
Points: 500
Top Seed: Robin Soderling
Defending Champion: Robin Soderling
Draw Analysis: Andy Murray won’t be able to ease back into action less than two weeks after finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. Murray and Soderling are the title favorites in Rotterdam with Djokovic having withdrawn, but the second-seeded Scot does not have a friendly draw.
He faces a brutal opener against Marcos Baghdatis, would likely meet Florian Mayer (already a three-time ATP quarterfinalist and two-time semifinalist in 2011) in round two, and is on a collision course with Sydney champion Gilles Simon for the quarterfinals. Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and indoor-court specialist Michael Lodra are also in the bottom half of the draw.
Soderling is in a less demanding top section of the bracket that includes fellow seeds David Ferrer, Jurgen Melzer, and Mikhail Youzhny. The fourth-ranked Swede will have the crowd against him in his opener against Dutchman Robin Haase before possible encounters with Youzhny in the quarters and Ferrer in the semis. Unseeded threats Marin Cilic and Philipp Kohlschreiber could also do some damage.
First-Round Upset Alert: Sergiy Stakhovsky over (7) Ivan Ljubicic. Stakhovsky has always done his best work and indoor hard courts and Ljubicic has not been in strong form ever since his incredible spring in 2010. The seventh-seeded Croat won one match last week in Zagreb but then lost to eventual champion Ivan Dodig. He will have to pick up the pace if he wants to hold off an even more dangerous opponent in Stakhovsky.
Hot: Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Jurgen Melzer, Gilles Simon, Florian Mayer
Cold: Ivan Ljubicic, Ernests Gulbis, Nikolay Davydenko, Feliciano Lopez
Semifinal predictions: Robin Soderling over David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych over Gilles Simon
Final: Soderling over Berdych
SAP Open
Where: San Jose, California
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: $531,000
Points: 250
Top Seed: Fernando Verdasco
Defending Champion: Fernando Verdasco
Draw Analysis: The eight seeds in San Jose caught a break as none of them has to face unseeded floater Juan Martin Del Potro in the first round. That misfortune has fallen upon Teymuraz Gabashvili. Granted, Del Potro is not exactly in fine form at the moment, but he is still the most talented player in the draw and a dangerous threat in any tournament he enters.
Del Potro is in a tough top half of the draw that also features Verdasco, Sam Querrey, and Lleyton Hewitt. The Argentine could run into Querrey in round two with the winner likely to battle Hewitt in the quarterfinals. Querrey opens with Lukas Lacko (who took a set of an ill Rafael Nadal in Doha) while Verdasco path to the semis out of the top quarter of the bracket could be blocked by either Ivo Karlovic or Denis Istomin.
No. 2 seed Gael Monfils should have an easier tom of things at the bottom half of the draw without too much apparent danger lurking. One marquee first-round matchup pits Canadian sensation Milos Raonic against No. 4 seed and Chennai runner-up Xavier Malisse. The winner of that showdown would be favored to reach the semis, but would probably have to get past James Blake first.
First-Round Upset Alert: Richard Berankis over (6) Benjamin Becker. Raonic is not the only Australian Open surprise youngster in the San Jose draw. Berankis benefited from playing a worn-out David Nalbandian and reached the third round in Melbourne before succumbing to eventual semifinalist Ferrer (as did Raonic). Meanwhile, you never know what you are going to get from Becker. He can beat almost anyone on any given day, but he can also lose to opponents way outside the Top 100, especially if his serve is off. Berankis is playing with confidence and will be ready to capitalize on a bad Becker performance.
Hot: Xavier Malisse, Richard Berankis, Milos Raonic
Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Sam Querrey, Denis Istomin, Rajeev Ram, Ivo Karlovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, James Blake
Semifinal predictions: Lleyton Hewitt over Fernando Verdasco and Gael Monfils over James Blake
Final: Hewitt over Monfils
Brasil Open
Where: Costa do Sauipe, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $470,200
Points: 250
Top Seed: Nicolas Almagro
Defending Champion: Juan Carlos Ferrero (not playing)
Draw Analysis: All eyes will be on one thing and one thing only in the early stages of this event: the rematch between Robredo and Fabio Fognini. They faced each other last Saturday in a bad-blooded semifinal at the Movistar Open, with Robredo prevailing in three sets. The Spaniard, who went on to win the title, refused to shake his opponent’s hand after Fognini hurled expletive-laced insults at him.
Aside from what will be an animus opener against Fogini, Robredo does not have a terrible draw. The 2009 Brasil Open champion could meet Albert Montanes in the quarterfinals, but that would be Robredo’s toughest test en route to the title match. Alexandr Dolgopolov reached the Australain Open quarters, but the jury is still out on his clay-court prowess.
The top half of the bracket boasts clay-court specialists Nicolas Almagro, Thomaz Bellucci, and Juan Ignacio Chela. Last year’s runner-up Lukasz Kubot also lurks in the same quarter as Bellucci and Chela, but the Pole has not been playing good tennis of late. Unless Filippo Volandri somehow has one of his amazing weeks that he can only produce on the slow stuff, top-seeded Nicolas Almagro should cruise into the weekend.
First-Round Upset Alert: Filippo Volandri over (8) Victor Hanescu. Volandri has been in horrific form of late, but he always has a chance of turning thing around whenever he hits the clay. And Hanescu is by no means playing stellar tennis, himself. The 6’6’’ Romanian is 1-3 for his 2011 campaign and although he is generally solid on the slow stuff, he is not a clay-court specialist like Volandri. Hanescu should win this, but an upset is not out of the question simply because of the surface.
Hot: Alexandr Dolgopolov, Tommy Robredo, Santiago Giraldo
Cold: Victor Hanescu, Filippo Volandri, Eduardo Schwank, Igor Andreev
Semifinal predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Thomaz Bellucci and Albert Montanes over Igor Andreev
Final: Montanes over Almagro
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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söderling for the title if he can get past the opener. i would love for a murray rematch.
the spoilt brit needs some more spanking.
don't think murray or söderling care about if they are #4 or #5, not until roland garros.
croc , 2/8/11 9:31 AM
Like the "spanking" Andy gave Soderling at the WTF you mean? Or the "spanking" Dolgopolov gave Soderling at the AO?
deuce , 2/8/11 10:06 AM
no, that kind of spanking. more like the spanking murray got by djokovic and federer in the last two ozo finals.
söderling doesn't have the game to be #1, murray can well be if he grows up, like söderling did. but for that he needs mentors. and more spanking probably.
croc , 2/8/11 10:36 AM
Hmm, I believe n carrot not stick, myself. Am afraid Soderling doesn't have the game to beat Andy like that. Also feel Andy is unlikely to go deep here, for once I agree with Ricky. Just seen Ferrer gone out quite easily, either the court is very fast, or he is knackered too.
deuce , 2/8/11 2:23 PM
Lots of spanking going on here between croc and deuce. lol.
Did anyone catch the adorable exho in San Jose between Pete Sampras and Gael Monfils? The tennis was good and the two of them were giggling throughout.
smr , 2/8/11 2:57 PM
smr: must be jngannex's influence ;)
deuce , 2/8/11 4:56 PM
Sampras = legend
samprallica , 2/8/11 5:59 PM
smr, no way! i like&respect deuce's opinion very much.
deuce: i think if murray is wise, he will see that kind of spanking like kind lessons by masters. he will want to do better, work harder, to reach a master mentality.
croc , 2/9/11 9:35 AM
croc likewise :) just feel SO SO sorry for you, re your love of all things Sod ;)
re Andy, he needs a shrink more than more hard work, but alas it is not the way of Scotsmen, much too macho :(
deuce , 2/9/11 11:48 AM
big win for tsonga beating llodra in rotterdam!
croc , 2/9/11 4:16 PM
gilles simon lost :/
mriiidula , 2/9/11 4:39 PM
that's hilarious RD you picked james blake to reach the semis. you must be a real fan!
croc , 2/11/11 10:55 PM
deuce, you have seen this I'm sure:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Media/Videos/2011/02/Rotterd am-2011-Friday-Murray-Brothers.aspx
smr , 2/12/11 2:25 PM
Hey Ricky and all,
What do you think of Somdev Devvarman's potential? He played well against Roger in Dubai and had a good run in South Africa. Do you think he can crack the top 30? What does he need in his game to get there?
msj9754 , 2/24/11 5:15 PM
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Andy probably hoping to close the gap between he and Robin, since he didn't play here last year ... most likely he wasn't imagining such a demanding draw. He can play well on this surface, though.
smr , 2/7/11 10:31 PM