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Ricky Dimon

  • Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Murray

    2011-01-28 23:49:23

    In a historical rarity, both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have gone by the wayside prior to the final of a Grand Slam. That means the door is now open for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Will Djokovic capture his second major and second Australian Open title? Or will Murray get over the hump and win his first slam? The experts try to pick it, while readers can make the call in the comments section.

    Expert standings

    Ricky: 7-2 (correct # of sets: 3)
    Kelli: 6-1 (correct # of sets: 3)
    Cheryl: 5-4 (correct # of sets: 2)

    3) Novak Djokovic vs. (5) Andy Murray

    Ricky "had Murray in the final from the start" Dimon: This may not be Nadal vs. Federer, and it may not be even one of the two, but this is still a blockbuster Grand Slam final. Who has the edge? Djokovic is playing slightly better tennis, having taken out both Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych in straight sets, and he also holds a major title (2008 Australian). Murray, although he trails the overall head-to-head series 4-3, has defeated Djokovic three straight times...and all in straight sets. That bodes well for the Scot, but this appears to be a different Djokovic in 2011. The Serb is riding high with a recent Davis Cup triumph and a revamped serve. Ultimately, the difference will be that Djokovic knows how to win a slam. Murray has final experience (none good), but the waiting will continue. Djokovic 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3, 5-7, 6-4.

    Cheryl "will it finally be a major title for" Murray: The good news for Andy Murray is that Roger Federer is not waiting for him in the final for the first time. The bad news is that on many levels, it would probably have been better for him if Federer had been. Djokovic has been playing OUTSTANDING tennis over the fortnight--better than Federer and better than Murray as well. The final isn't going to be a walk in the park for Nole, though. The Serb has lost to Murray three times in a row on hard courts...in short, it appears he has a matchup problem with the Scot. Frankly, I think the final could go either way, but since this is expert "picks" and not expert "no clue," I'm going with Nole. Djokovic 6-4, 6-7(5), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

    Kelli "well-rested after SF absence" DeMario: This is a coin toss for me, as both players have fought with everything they've got to reach this stage. Djokovic looked outstanding against Federer and should feel very fresh going into the final. Murray started very slowly during his semifinal, and may be a little bit weary after a long, physical battle with David Ferrer. The court speed will favor the Scot slightly, but I think he'll have to wait a little longer for his first Grand Slam title. The Serb has been in this position before, and after a three-year long drought, he seems poised to take his second major crown. Djokovic 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(2), 6-2.

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Comments

Cheryl, go with your instinct.

rfzr , 1/29/11 1:11 AM


Murray 3-6 4-6 7-6(4) 6-4 6-2
i think that the hot weather will take down Novak

tennisFansz , 1/29/11 1:57 AM


Djokovic 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-4, 7-5

It's relatively hot for a night match, but not hot enough to bother Djokovic.

stu , 1/29/11 3:31 AM


Depends which Andy shows up. Andy of third set v Ferrer will win, but Andy of first set will lose. Head says Nole, heart says Andy but hey, what's being a fan all about?
Andy in 5! Come on!

deuce , 1/29/11 8:09 AM


slight edge to nole....he should win in 5 long sets

vrael , 1/29/11 8:31 AM


I see Djokovic win in 4 sets. Sorry, alex and deuce.

Latennis , 1/29/11 9:01 AM


what do i want? muzz in 3, of course!
what do i expect? nole in 4 :(
no need to apologise for honesty, la.
deuce, at least i haven't jinxed him.

alex , 1/29/11 12:01 PM


La tennis u carry on. Andy's fans get hyper nervous if he's favourite for anything;)
Well done alex :)

deuce , 1/29/11 12:07 PM


cheryl -
contrary to what everyone loves to say, it was never fed that overawed muzz - even from his younger years, muzz never showed any of the reverence on court for fed that most other players seemed to, hence the H2H - but the pressure of the EVENT. Fed is not there but his biggest enemy - the EVENT - certainly is. nole's done it there before so, up top, he's got the edge to add to his form.

alex , 1/29/11 12:08 PM


Weather wise, here in Melbourne they're predicting a cool change before the match starts. Even though they're predicting a high of 40c during the day. Melb is known for balmy nights even in 35-40c days, so..... Anyway, i refuse to look at it as a factor. I love Nole and expect him to bring his A - game, he shld be fit n ready. If not... Well! I am sooooo looking forward to watching this final live. My 1st Slam final and I get to see Nole play! If he wins it, a dream come true!!!! anyway, it'll be a great match for all of us tennis fans!!!

bianca , 1/29/11 4:00 PM


Murray will win this.
He is a bad match up for Nole.

Murray in 5.

atul1985 , 1/29/11 5:38 PM


I won't make a prediction, but I'll be firmly behind Nole for this one. I don't mind Murray winning if he does so, but I'd really love to see Nole beat him comprehensively tomorrow.

samprallica , 1/29/11 5:56 PM


Don't really have a prediction but my head says Nole. He's not played a lot so he'll be well rested plus he's been playing better. While I like his game and overall persona better than Andy, I'd rather see the Scot win to get the giant monkey off his back. Kind of felt sorry for the guy after last year too.

numero , 1/29/11 9:53 PM


if you're out there deuce, i'm signing off now till after the final, so here's hoping.
thanx also to all well wishers.
play your heart out muzz, serve big, go for your shots and if you break him stay focused next game. do your best, no collapses or self flagellation, and as long as you don't lose in 3 (3 GS finals without a set would NOT be good), I'll be proud of you. either way i'll be cheering you on for rotterdam, so no nosedives this time if you don't win.
GOOOOOOOOO MUZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ !!!!!!!!!!!

alex , 1/30/11 12:37 AM


Nole in 4, after losing the first set.
5-7 6-4 7-6 7-5

mriiidula , 1/30/11 12:46 AM


Here's what I'd like - Nole to win the AO and Andy to win at Wimbledon. The Wimby win would be something great and special since that's his home turf. Having said that, I'll go with Nole ;)

danica , 1/30/11 1:27 AM


Andy not going to win Wimbly. Rafa is too strong there, Roger also

atul1985 , 1/30/11 7:01 AM


i have to admit i like those self-confident pickers: atul, imjimmy, etc ... (no pun intended, i think our expert panel is quite impartial).

i think andy has a great chance at Wimby, he just needs a bit of emotional maturing and 6 months should be enough.

rfzr , 1/30/11 2:44 PM


it will be the US Open before Murray contends for another slam, of course

RickyDimon , 1/30/11 5:56 PM


it will be the US Open before Murray contends for another slam, of course

RickyDimon , 1/30/11 5:56 PM


Why is that Ricky????

nadline , 1/30/11 7:40 PM


i think andy has a good chance at wimbledon as well. he may not be as good on grass as he is on hard courts, but he has won at Queen's and has reached wimbledon semis a few times. apart from the FO, i think he's got a good chance at making a run in any of the other three slams.

mriiidula , 1/30/11 9:59 PM


i mean for the title. He could make it to the Wimby SFs if he steps it up.

Obviously he has no chance at the French.

And he will never beat Nadal or Federer on grass. So, yeah, US Open.

RickyDimon , 1/30/11 11:43 PM


I agree with Ricky about Murray at Wimbledon. As long as Fed and Rafa are at the opposite halves of the draw and if both are in tip top conditions, it's difficult to see anyone else other than these two guys at the final of Wimbledon. Unless Fed falls in his ranking, then there's a possibilty of him meeting Rafa at the SF of Wimbledon.


luckystar , 1/31/11 5:02 AM


I am also in agreement with Ricky abou

Nativenewyorker , 1/31/11 6:21 AM


I also agree with Ricky about Wimbledon. I am not sure why people tend to forget just how good Rafa is on grass. The only player better is Fed. On paper, they should meet but anything can happen.

As luckystar said, if for some reason Fed falls in the ranking to #3, then he and Rafa could meet in the semis. Now Nole is very close behind Fed in the rankings, so this could be quite interesting as the season moves along.

At least Murray defended his 1200 points at Wimbledon. Had he won, then he would have gotten back the #4 ranking. However, he is very close behind Sod and doesn't have much to defend in the next few months.

I don't see Murray having a chance at RG. Nole is a much better clay court player, so he could have a good shot there. Rafa will go in as the favorite, of course.

Nativenewyorker , 1/31/11 6:24 AM


My apologies for the double post. I hit the wrong key and thought my original post was gone. Now I see that only part of the first sentence posted. If anyone wishes to delete that first aborted comment, that would be fine.

Sorry for any confusion.

Nativenewyorker , 1/31/11 6:36 AM


The point I was trying to make was that only last year Murray was tipped to make the final at Wimbledon over Rafa, why not this year. Lol

nadline , 1/31/11 9:41 AM


Lesson learned - I shouldn't take these predictions too seriously.

nadline , 1/31/11 9:45 AM


Nonsense, if either Rafa or Fed has an off day or carries an injury or loses early, Murray can win Wimbledon. Its not like any of these players are infallible. The AO just finished, its a long way before discussion on Wimby can be opened.

samprallica , 1/31/11 12:39 PM


I think Murray needs BOTH Fed and Rafa to have off days or lose early for him to have a chance at reaching the final of Wimbledon. I don't see him getting past Fed or Rafa at Wimbledon if they are fit and healthy, simply put. Fed was only beaten by two men at Wimbledon since winning it in 2003 - Rafa and Berdych. Rafa was only beaten by one man at Wimbledon since making the final in 2006 - Fed. They may be beaten by other players not named Fed or Rafa of course, but I don't see it happening now or within the next two years.

luckystar , 1/31/11 1:38 PM


nadline - because he got blown out in three easy sets last year, that's why

samprallica - of course it's not too early. We aren't discussing Wimbledon in general, we are discussing MURRAY's prospects at Wimbledon. Murray and his Grand Slam failures are the talk of the tennis world right now.

RickyDimon , 1/31/11 4:20 PM


Based on Nole's form last six months ago in August, people were writing him off as a one slam wonder. You can never really tell for sure.

samprallica , 1/31/11 5:02 PM


samprallica, my point as well. things change during GS fortnight not to mention 6 month period!

rfzr , 1/31/11 7:01 PM


Am just going to take Shireling's good advice and say "never" is a very long time ;)

deuce , 1/31/11 8:22 PM


An excerpt from the article:
"Murray meets his comedy muse, Djoko doing fine"

http://www.valleynewslive.com/Global/story.asp?S=13898200&cli enttype=printable

=== had no idea they dished out so many fines !! Is this normal in a slam?


CAUGHT ON COURT: A total of 22 players have been fined for code violations at the Australian Open so far, including men's No. 3 Novak Djokovic.

The 2008 Australian Open champion was handed a $1,500 punishment for getting advice from his coaching team during his third-round win over Spain's Nicolas Almagro on Sunday.

Spaniard Fernando Verdasco was the only other seeded player in the men's draw who was fined - $800 for racket abuse in his second-round win against Serbia's Janko Tipsarevic. Verdasco crashed out of the tournament in the next round.

After eight days, 19 men had been fined a total of $20,500. Three women were fined a combined total $11,000.

No. 10 Shahar Peer of Israel was the only women's seeded player fined - $1,500 for coaching in her second round defeat of Sorana Cirstea of Romania.

The largest fine on the men's side was $3,000 handed to Italy's Fabio Fognini for unsportsmanlike conduct during his first-round loss to Japan's Kei Nishikori. The largest fine overall - $7,500 - was handed to American Bethanie Mattek Sands for the same violation during her first-round loss to Arantxa Rus of the Netherlands.

Djokovic said he thought his fine was unwarranted, and that he should had been given a warning first.

"I don't think it was the right call because I missed a forehand and then I turn to my coach," Djokovic said, adding that players always make eye contact with their coaches during matches. "I didn't ask for the advice. That's my point."

homos , 2/2/11 8:17 AM



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