Ricky Dimon

• 2011 Australian Open draw analysis

  2011-01-16 16:55:01
  

  Breaking down the 2011 Australian Open men's singles draw:
  

   

  Nadal’s quarter

  Nadal won’t have many—if any—complaints about how his quarter played out. He was in the same section as Andy Murray last year, and we all saw how that ended up (Nadal retired while down two sets in the quarterfinals). This time, the highest-ranked player Nadal could face prior to the semis is world No. 7 David Ferrer.

   

  Other potential opponents out of a tough eighth of the bracket include Mikhail Youzhny, David Nalbandian, and Lleyton Hewitt. A big-serve, big-forehand opponent is likely for Nadal in the fourth round, in the form of either Marin Cilic or John Isner. While there is some talent in this quarter, Nadal faces no apparent significant danger other than Nalbandian—and even calling Nalbandian “dangerous” to the No. 1 seed is a stretch.

   

  Best first-round matchup – (27) David Nalbandian vs. Lleyton Hewitt
  Best potential second-round matchup – (20) John Isner vs. Radek Stepanek
  Best potential third-round matchup – (7) David Ferrer vs. (27) David Nalbandian

   

  Ways Nadal could lose – The top-ranked Spaniard should sail through the first week. Nadal opens with Marcos Daniel (who has suffered this fate in the first round of a Grand Slam once before!) and will not run into anyone better than Feliciano Lopez prior to the fourth round.

   

  The only way Nadal could be troubled prior to the quarters is if Isner gets past Cilic. Whereas Cilic is in dismal form and would be no contest for Nadal, Isner is daunting because he can beat anyone on any given day if he serves well. Nalbandian, meanwhile, is one of the most talented players in the game. Barring a serve-fest by Isner and—more likely but still extremely improbable—a lights-out day from Nalbandian, Nadal will advance.

   

  Soderling’s quarter

   

  So much for Murray’s drop from the No. 4 seed to No. 5 having any serious impact on the Australian Open draw. Murray avoided Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, instead landing in the second quarter of the bracket with Robin Soderling. So it could have been just the same if Murray had still been No. 4 with Soderling at No. 5.
  
  Of course, both players have a long way to go before they can even start thinking about a potential quarterfinal showdown that Murray would have to win in order to have any chance of getting back to No. 4. This is arguably the “wild card” section of the draw; it’s littered with talented players, but also players from whom you can only expect the unexpected (Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marcos Baghdatis, Ernests Gulbis, and Juan Martin Del Potro among them).

   

  Best first-round matchup – (13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Philipp Petzschner
  Best potential second-round matchup – (21) Marcos Baghdatis vs. Juan Martin Del Potro
  Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Andy Murray vs. (21) Marcos Baghdatis

   

  Ways Soderling could lose – Soderling is not the favorite, but he should cruise into the fourth round thanks to an incredibly kind draw during the first week. Trouble could come at the start of week two with either Tsonga or Gulbis. Both of those big hitters can stay with Soderling, but Tsonga has injury question marks and Gulbis has head question marks. Murray has a chance of going out in the fourth round if either Baghdatis or Del Potro gets hot, but that is an unlikely scenario.

   

  Djokovic’s quarter

   

  The bottom half of the draw is noticeably weak, so that’s good news for Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Djokovic’s draw is especially fortuitous, as the two highest-ranked players nearest him in the bracket are playing dismal tennis. Tomas Berdych has barely won a match since reaching the French Open semis and the Wimbledon final; Fernando Verdasco has done nothing since a quarterfinal appearance at the U.S. Open.

   

  This is a section in which a host of unseeded contenders could make a charge, because even the other seeds in addition to Berdych and Verdasco (Nicolas Almagro, Ivan Ljubicic, Nikolay Davydenko, Richard Gasquet, and Viktor Troicki) are nothing to write home about. Davydenko reached the Doha final but that came at the expense of a sick Nadal and resulted in a blowout loss to Federer. Troicki is in the Sydney final, but he has to step up at a slam like he did at the Davis Cup final.

   

  Best first-round matchup – (23) Nikolay Davydenko vs. Florian Mayer
  Best potential second-round matchup – (9) Fernando Verdasco vs. Janko Tipsarevic
  Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Tomas Berdych vs. (28) Richard Gasquet

   

  Why Djokovic could lose – Interestingly, Djokovic has not yet played in 2011 so his post-offseason level remains to be seen. He opens with Marcel Granollers, who stunned Soderling in the first round last year. Assuming the third-ranked Serb advances, Ivo Karlovic looms large—literally—as a possible round-two opponent. Dr. Ivo has been absent for a while, but his serve makes his dangerous on any day. Djokovic, who almost lost to Troicki in the first round of the U.S. Open, could face a rematch with his countryman during the first weekend. Still, it’s hard to imagine Djokovic losing unless Berdych version 2010 or Davydenko version 2009 surfaces.

   

  Federer’s quarter

   

  Federer should have a similar path to that of Djokovic. The second-ranked Swiss could have a few decent tests during the first week, but that should only get him ready for beatdowns en route to the semis. Potential second-round opponent Gilles Simon is coming off a title in Sydney and possible third-round foe Xavier Malisse showed some flashes of his younger, former self while making it to the Chennai title match two weeks ago.

  
  Other unseeded threats in a quarter in which the only real imposing seed is Federer include Thiemo De Bakker, Robin Haase, Tommy Robredo, and Andrey Golubev. Overall, in this section there's Federer...and then there's everyone else. Andy Roddick is in fine form but generally hopeless against the second-ranked Swiss; same goes for Stanislas Wawrinka. Gael Monfils still has injury issues, Mardy Fish has cooled off since last summer, and Sam Querrey only performs well at small tournaments.
  

   

  Best first-round matchup – (12) Gael Monfils vs. Thiemo De Bakker
  Best potential second-round matchup – (19) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. Andrey Golubev
  Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Gael Monfils vs. (19) Stanislas Wawrinka

   

  Why Federer could lose – He probably can't. In fact, Simon probably has the best chance of anyone in this entire quarter to take down Federer. With all due respect to the Frenchman, when Gilles Simon has the best chance of beating you prior to the quarterfinals, you know you are in good shape. Federer, admittedly, is most vulnerable early on at Grand Slams, so the second-round test will be worth watching. Once the world No. 2 gets through that, however, it's hard to imagine someone like Roddick, Wawrinka, or Monfils taking him out.

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