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2010-12-02 19:18:14
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every week he previews the upcoming action.
The World Tour Finals and every other ATP tournament in 2010 may have come and gone, but the season is not yet over. Far from it. Three more huge days remain as the Davis Cup final takes place this weekend in Belgrade, Serbia.
Novak Djokovic was overshadowed by Rafael Nadal throughout the entire year and he took a backseat to Roger Federer during the fall swing, most recently in London. But this is Djokovic’s time. It’s all set up for Serbia’s No. 1 player to deliver a first-ever Davis Cup title to his country.
France vs. Serbia
Where: Belgrade, Serbia
Surface: Indoor Hard
France: Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon, Michael Lodra, Arnaud Clement
Serbia: Novak Djokovic, Janko Tipsarevic, Viktor Troicki, Nenad Zimonjic
Draw
Gael Monfils vs. Janko Tipsarevic
Gilles Simon vs. Novak Djokovic
Arnaud Clement and Michael Llodra vs. Viktor Troicki and Nenad Zimonjic
Gael Monfils vs. Novak Djokovic
Gilles Simon vs. Janko Tipsarevic
How they got here
France
d. Germany 3-0 in Toulon, France
d. Spain 3-0 in Clermont-Ferrand, France
d. Argentina 3-0 in Lyon, France
Serbia
d. United States 3-1 in Belgrade, Serbia
d. Croatia 3-1 in Split, Croatia
d. Czech Republic 3-2 in Belgrade, Serbia
***note: Davis Cup ties are best three out of five matches (called “rubbers”) with two singles matches on both Friday and Sunday and a doubles rubber on Saturday. When a team wins three matches (earns three “points”), the tie is clinched and any remaining rubbers are referred to as “dead” rubbers. Prior to a team winning three points, all rubbers are “live.” All live rubbers are three out of five sets; dead singles rubbers are two out of three.***
Analysis
The only lopsided thing about this tie is Davis Cup history. France has won it all nine times; Serbia is in search of its first title.
On paper, this looks like it could be a blockbuster battle. Serbia is top-heavy with Djokovic as its lead player, but France—even without Jo-Wilfried Tsonga—has plenty of depth. Monfils has been one of the hottest players in tennis this fall and Simon is playing much better than his No. 42 ranking suggests.
As for pressure, that will be immense on both teams. The Serbs are favored and are playing at home; this is an ideal chance for them to capture the Davis Cup title. The French, meanwhile, will feel like they have to win both singles matches in which Djokovic is not involved. Monfils (on Friday) and Simon (if it’s a live rubber on Sunday) will almost certainly have to beat Tipsarevic in order for the visitors to have any chance.
It’s hard to imagine Djokovic losing either one of his rubbers; not at home, not in the Belgrade Arena. Monfils is borderline on fire, but beating Djokovic is Serbia is too tough a task.
Regardless of what transpires in singles, Saturday’s live doubles rubber will be an intriguing clash. Llodra, controversially passed over in singles by French captain Guy Forget, will go up against soon-to-be 2011 partner Zimonjic. While Zimonjic is the best doubles player of the foursome, Troicki is the least experienced.
The bottom line is that very little separates these two teams in terms of talent. As such, home-court advantage will likely make the all-important difference.
Predictions
Monfils over Tipsarevic in 5
Djokovic over Simon in 3
Zimonjic/Troicki over Clement/Llodra in 5
Djokovic over Monfils in 3
Serbia 3, France 1
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Should be a good weekend of tennis ... I'll be up early to watch (or listen ... I like the tennis expertise on DC radio).
smr , 12/3/10 1:09 AM
Does anybody know why Simon was picked over Llodra? Is he dealing with an injury?
Simon has been known to choke and cry under Davis Cup pressure plus Llodra just beat Nole.
I'm fairly neutral but would like to see a more competitive tie. Guy will be second guessed if Simon goes down in a heap.
All in all, would like to see Serbia win since it would be historic and mean more to their country. Hope it comes down to a live fifth rubber though.
numero , 12/3/10 3:40 AM
I am on 'holiday' from posting comments on TT but had to jump in here. I watched that DC and blame Guy Forget for Simon's performance. Gilles is not someone who normally chokes! Forget was haranguing him (as he does all his players) at every changeover and you could see Gilles' morale plummeting by the moment and his confidence being patently undermined. Those tears were a mixture of humiliation at letting his team down and frustration that he'd not played anywhere near his best level - not to mention the fear of facing Forget's wrath.
You have to admire his pluck in coming back to play Davis Cup again particularly as he'll be pitted against Nole with whom he has a particularly poor H2H. It would be interesting to know the logic behind Forget's decision to field Simon. Only two of his losses to Nole have been in straight sets so maybe he is hoping Simon can tire Djokovic out in the first rubber and make him a softer target for Monfils :-)
numero: He is saving Llodra for the doubles. He and Clements are a proven doubles pair with multiple titles to their name.
ed251137 , 12/3/10 12:55 PM
@ed251137
I think you're right about him saving Llodra for doubles.
I think his strategy is this:
1. Monfils wins first rubber
2. Simon is the sacrificial lamb for Nole.
3. France wins doubles.
4. Monfils has a shot against Nole.
5. Backup plan is Llodra against Janko or Viktor for the dramatic fifth rubber win.
Don't think it'll work though. I'm predicting Serbia to win.
numero , 12/3/10 2:00 PM
There is an awful lot riding on Djokovic! But yes I agree - Davis Cup has Serbia written all over it this year. Should be exciting to watch.
ed251137 , 12/3/10 2:36 PM
ed: have just asked on another thread, why Gasquet's not playing. Is he injured? Monfils just beat Tipsi. Novak beats Simon. Doubles too close to call. Might come down to the wire ;) Whaddyathink about Norman coaching our Andy? He certainly sorted Sod's head out ;)
deuce , 12/3/10 4:49 PM
Dont know deuce, haven't heard or read anything. Possibly he is seen as still being too erractic - dont know his history in DC (will read up on it) but generally he is probably not mentally strong enough - remember how he cracks under pressure at RG. He is a player I have never related to in spite of his beautiful backhand!
ed251137 , 12/3/10 5:31 PM
Deuce. Given 90% of AM's problems are in his head, it's worth a try and he has nothing to lose!
ed251137 , 12/3/10 5:59 PM
I don't think Norman will coach Murray. Its seems that the reason given for the Sod/Norman split is that Norman doesn't want to travel so frequently. Unless Murray is ready for that kind of arrangement, ie his coach can't be with him all the time, I don't see them teaming up.
luckystar , 12/3/10 6:31 PM
luckystar: was tongue in cheek ;)
deuce , 12/3/10 6:36 PM
Well so far ... no surprises Monfils beats Tipsy, Novak beats Simon. i wonder who will be playing doubles tomorrow?
smr , 12/3/10 9:10 PM
France leads 2:1. It should be a thrilling competition tomorrow.
Augustina08 , 12/4/10 8:59 PM
Amazing comeback from Clement/Llodra.
smr , 12/5/10 1:39 AM
yep, amazing comeback.
RickyDimon , 12/5/10 7:04 AM
And an amazing fall after the second set :((
danica , 12/5/10 10:05 AM
I think Novak surpassed expectations. Here we go with a fifth and deciding rubber.
smr , 12/5/10 3:47 PM
isnt tipsy supposed to play simon? can players just change like that?
mriiidula , 12/5/10 4:40 PM
djokovic is like a littl kid in his celebrations! :)
troicki's played some unbelievable tennis. amazing.
mriiidula , 12/5/10 5:20 PM
ALLEZ SERBIA.... LES CHAMPIONS DU MONDE!!!
zare , 12/5/10 5:48 PM
it is all over now, viktor is up 2 breaks in the 3rd. congrats to the serbian team. nole and viktor were outstanding today.
rfzr , 12/5/10 5:56 PM
guess its not over til its over.
mriiidula , 12/5/10 6:01 PM
yep, viktor is a respectable choker, you never know ...
rfzr , 12/5/10 6:02 PM
Congratulations to fans of Nole on his winning the Davis Cup !!!
Augustina08 , 12/5/10 6:15 PM
gotta feel for llodra.
mriiidula , 12/5/10 6:15 PM
What a game from Troicki!!
atul1985 , 12/5/10 6:17 PM
whats with the headshaving?!?!?! nole looks hideous!
mriiidula , 12/5/10 6:20 PM
A bit surprising Viktor was chosen but he played brilliantly. This victory could propel him into the top ten next season. When his head's right, he's that good.
The shaved heads are not a good look. Was it a bet?
numero , 12/5/10 6:36 PM
Haha... it was promise... if we win, will shave :)))
BRAVO!!!
zare , 12/5/10 6:55 PM
Troicki was outstanding ... poor Llodra sobbing after loss. Congratulations to the Bald Serbian Davis Cup Champions!
smr , 12/5/10 6:55 PM
Congrats to Serbia for winning their first Davis Cup. Wow what a win, well done. I couldn't decide which team to support as I like both teams. Like Llodra very much and sad he has to be the one to play the last rubber and suffer the heartbreaking loss. He is the hero of the team, for carrying them so far up till the final, especially during the QF against Spain. I hope France will win some day with Llodra in the team(he'll probably play doubles as I think he may be too old for singles by then), though not at the expense of Rafa and his beloved Spanish team.
Once again well done Serbia, Nole and Co!
luckystar , 12/5/10 7:23 PM
I am so happy for Nole, Janko, Viktor, Zimonja...
Must admit... my favorite player (French) is Liodra... so I am really sorry that he gets the tragic role in this finale...
Head up Liodra! You are still one of the most attractive player to watch, in hole world. Without him... French would never reach finale...
So it's time to celebrate in Serbia... I wish I am in Belgrade tonight... it will be crazy night...
Thank you bold company:)))
zare , 12/5/10 9:37 PM
I didn't know how sad Llodra was until I came home and saw him on TV. I really feel for him, having such a burden to bear, such expectations, and then failing to fulfill them. I felt sorry for Monfils too because I like him so much. But then again, I am more than happy for Serbia ;).
Zare, I am in Belgrade and let me tell you, this was worth living and moving back for ;).
And thank all of you who congratulated us, it is most appreciated ;)
Love and greetings from Belgrade!!!
danica , 12/5/10 11:54 PM
Major congratulations to the Serbian team... and to Novak and Viktor in particular!!
chlorostoma , 12/6/10 6:03 PM
Serb team, djoker shaving their heads on court -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-6Jy6pLIV4
FEDistheGOAT , 12/6/10 7:52 PM
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I like Serbia overall, but that doubles match on sat will be the key...can't wait to see it. SD in Atl.
scoot , 12/3/10 12:08 AM