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2010-11-08 17:50:03
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The 2010 ATP Tour regular season comes to an end this week at the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris. After this, only the World Tour Finals in London remains. Last year, only one of the eight WTF spots was still up for grabs—Fernando Verdasco snagged it with a third-round showing and he was helped by losses from Robin Soderling (who eventually got into London when Andy Roddick withdrew) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
This time around, three WTF spots are there for the taking. That said, it would take minor miracles for Andy Roddick, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer to get bumped out of position. In fact, the only realistic way Berdych could lose out on a place is if Mikhail Youzhny beats Verdasco in the Paris final. And that’s not exactly realistic itself! The chances of passing even Roddick or Ferrer look slim; Verdasco, Youzhny, and Jurgen Melzer need runs to the weekend just to have any hope—and Melzer must win the title.
BNP Paribas Masters
Where: Paris, France
Surface: Indoor Hard
Points: 1000
Prize Money: 2,750,000 Euros
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw Analysis: Injury-wise, the ATP is not in shambles like it was at this time last year. However, the Paris Masters took a major blow over the weekend when world No. 1 Rafael Nadal pulled out due to shoulder tendinitis. Nadal joins—among others—Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, Marcos Baghdatis, and Mardy Fish on the absentee list. Nonetheless, an impressive field includes 11 of the Top 12 players in the world and 15 of the Top 17.
While the draw is relatively balanced, the quarter that lacks a Top 4 player (due to Nadal’s withdrawal) is the one in which everyone wants to take part. Soderling moved up the No. 4 seed and his section features seeds Roddick, Youzhny, and Ivan Ljubicic. This quarter is wide open, and even a host of talented unseeded players could contend. Ernests Gulbis is slumping but already through to round two, Stanislas Wawrinka was two spots away from being seeded, Jarkko Nieminen is on fire, and Gilles Simon is rounding into form as the season comes to a close.
Interestingly, both of last week’s title winners—Federer (Basel) and Ferrer (Valencia)—are in the same section of the bracket. On a collision course for the quarterfinals, Federer and Ferrer have some work to do before reaching that point. The top-seeded Swiss could open against Richard Gasquet and the seventh-ranked Spaniard is likely to meet Melzer in round three.
Two of the seeds in Andy Murray’s quarter are Verdasco and Marin Cilic, both of whom are in terrible shape. But that does not mean Murray will go untested. The fourth-ranked Scot will probably have to go up against David Nalbandian in his first match and a potential quarterfinal opponent is 2009 Paris runner-up Gael Monfils.
Neither Federer nor Murray has a particularly difficult draw, and the same can be said for defending champion Novak Djokovic. The third-ranked Serb’s potential path to the semis includes either Sam Querrey or Juan Monaco (round two), John Isner (round three), and either Berdych or a slumping Nikolay Davydenko (quarterfinals). All of those guys are dangerous on any given day, but Djokovic is a massive favorite in this section.
Second-Round Upset Alerts: There won’t be any real upsets in the first round because all 16 seed players have byes. The second round, however, will almost certainly send a big group of seeds tumbling out of the tournament. Possibilities include:
(WC) Arnaud Clement over (6) Fernando Verdasco – Verdasco is playing dreadful tennis and Clement has home-court advantage.
(Q) Jarkko Nieminen over (8) Andy Roddick – Nieminen is one of the hottest players on tour at the moment.
Ernests Gulbis over (9) Mikhail Youzhny – Gulbis is in dismal form, but Youzhny is tiring out in a hurry at the end of a long season.
Philipp Kohlschreiber over (10) Nikolay Davydenko – What a difference a year makes; and not in a good way for Davydenko.
Radek Stepanek over (14) Nicolas Almagro – Stepanek should actually be considered the favorite in this one.
Stanislas Wawrinka over (15) Ivan Ljubicic – A complete tossup.
Michael Llodra over (16) John Isner – Llodra served for a straight-set win against Isner last week in Basel only to eventually go down in three.
Hot: Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Jurgen Melzer, Gael Monfils, Michael Berrer, Marcel Granollers, Jarkko Nieminen, Juan Monaco
Cold: Tomas Berdych, Fernando Verdasco, Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic, Ernests Gulbis, Thomaz Bellucci
Quarterfinal predictions: Federer over Ferrer, Murray over Monfils, Roddick over Wawrinka, and Djokovic over Davydenko
Semifinals: Murray over Federer and Djokovic over Roddick
Final: Djokovic over Murray
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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if nole and andy play in the finals, andy will take it comfortably.
rfzr , 11/9/10 3:52 AM
rfzr: u r needed quickly over on :Fed captures Basel" where tj has said "Djkovich is a much better player than Murray." I am planning my own steely response......;)
Andy was dreadful in Valencia but has had match play in the doubles since so lets hope he's oiled up and ready to go. Have seen some of the matches and they've been error strewn affairs, some of the players look very tired.
deuce , 11/9/10 7:08 AM
isner's turnaround against llodra last week was a monumental comeback, either that or the match was a fraud... they probably play for real this time.
croc , 11/9/10 9:12 AM
right about youzhny, he wasn't fit for this
croc , 11/9/10 1:26 PM
So Youzhny has taken himself out of the running and Nando is on the way to follow suit - he's already dropped the first set against Clement and struggled like hell to hold his service at the start of the 2nd set. Hard to believe this is the same player we saw in that jaw-dropping SF in the AO 2009.
ed251137 , 11/9/10 2:59 PM
Don't forget ed, that Nando has played Davis Cup with Rafa and practiced alot too with him and knows probably more of what Rafa plans to do, or has problems with, at certain times than others. I have always felt that is why that AO SF was so intense because Nando had "inside info" so to speak. Not quite sure how to word it--lol. But I did expect him to do better than he has recently.
But just like Murray or Nole, I never give up on them and I think they are great players and I admire them both and know they will come into their own soon. I am just being patient. Of course, deuce and alex know, if they are playing Rafa, I will always cheer for a good tennis match but they know who I root for--lol.
fan4tennis , 11/9/10 3:27 PM
deuce: if it was nole 2008 ao then i would agree with the above statement, but lately i think andy has the edge. would love nole to prove me wrong tho ;)
rfzr , 11/9/10 10:49 PM
i did not pick Nieminen over Roddick. I just said it was possible.
***comment deleted due to vulgarity. Any more of that sheila and you will be banned.***
RickyDimon , 11/10/10 6:49 PM
Lineup for London is complete with Roddick, Berdych and Ferrer taking the last three places.
Adri , 11/11/10 4:47 PM
So pleased to hear Ferrer will be at O2. I think the RR format will suit him.
ed251137 , 11/11/10 5:32 PM
Hi Rcky,
Djoker is out now, lets see who grabs the chance from his half.
champ00289 , 11/11/10 6:51 PM
champ00289 - Llodra quite possibly
RickyDimon , 11/12/10 1:50 AM
Fed Express...pulling out of the station once again!!!! SD from atl.
scoot , 11/13/10 12:57 PM
does anyone know when the schedule for london will be released? i need to know which session to get tickets for..
mriiidula , 11/14/10 2:59 PM
draw on Wednesday - until then you wont know who is playing on which days
RickyDimon , 11/14/10 8:16 PM
Is the grouping is finalized? Any website has details of which players in each group? Thanks
RMadhu , 11/15/10 11:34 AM
http://www.barclaysatpworldtourfinals.com/Results/Group-Standings-2010 .aspx
Adri , 11/16/10 1:40 PM
thanks for that! so the group standings are out, what about dates and times for who plays whom?
and as far as the groups go, goodness! we are in for A LOT of intriguing match-ups.
mriiidula , 11/16/10 2:15 PM
So who's gonna win?
1. Rafa wants it badly but likely will be rusty.
2. Roger should be a bit pooped after the last month.
3. Nole is looking toward to Davis Cup so mentally he won't be there.
4. Robin has an outside chance at best.
5. Murray is playing at home so should be motivated but the wrist could be an issue.
6. Berdych hasn't played well since Wimbledon.
7. Roddick isn't what he used to be which never was that much.
8. Ferrer has little or no chance.
numero , 11/16/10 7:48 PM
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Don't see Roger defying the odds here and winning.
Novak looked terrible yesterday and is probably saving himself for Davis Cup tie at the expense of ranking points I might add.
You never can tell with Murray but of the top 3 seeds, he should have the best chance.
What the heck, Melzer for the title and a spot in the WTF singles! (He's already in the doubles.)
numero , 11/9/10 3:30 AM