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2010-10-25 04:09:13
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The final three 250-point tournaments of the season take place this week in Montpellier, Vienna, and St. Petersburg. Just because there are few points at stake does not mean the week is without intrigue. The World Tour Finals is looming and just a few points could go a long way for Mikhail Youzhny (the only Top 10 player in action) and Jurgen Melzer. Meanwhile, 43-year-old Thomas Muster returns to the ATP Tour for the first time since the 1999 French Open.
Open Sud de de France
Where: Montpellier, France
Surface: Indoor Hard
Points: 250
Prize Money: 650,000 Euros
Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
Defending Champion: Ivan Ljubicic (played in Lyon last year)
Draw Analysis: The 250-point season wraps up with one of the best 250s of the year. Montpellier certainly isn’t the very best, but it is pretty loaded from top to bottom. Five of the Top 20 players in the world are on hand; Nikolay Davydenko, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Ivan Ljubicic, and John Isner.
Tsonga, Monfils, and Isner are in a brutal bottom half of the draw that also includes David Nalbandian, Gilles Simon, and Nicolas Mahut. Fellow Frenchmen Simon and Mahut will square off in the first round following Mahut’s best week since the Wimbledon marathon against Isner (Mahut won the Orleans Challenger on Sunday).
The Simon-Mahut winner is likely to face Nalbandian in the second round as part of Tsonga’s section of the bracket. Monfils and Isner are on a collision course for the quarterfinals.
Davydenko was dealt easier hand in the top half. The top-seeded Russian could face a quarterfinal challenge from either Michael Llodra or Arnaud Clement. Ljubicic’s path to the quarters is more daunting; he could open with Taylor Dent before running into Richard Gasquet or an on-fire Jarkko Nieminen.
First-Round Upset Alert: Arnaud Clement over (6) Albert Montanes. With four of the eight seeds receiving first-round byes, there is not a ton of potential of major upsets in the early stages. Isner, Gasquet, and Nalbandian should cruise. This, however, is an upset that should happen. Montanes has been awesome this year and even his hard-court game is showing some promise, but he still is not the player that Clement is indoors. Plus the veteran Frenchman will have home-court advantage.
Hot: Ivan Ljubicic, Albert Montanes, Richard Gasquet, Jarkko Nieminen, Nicolas Mahut
Cold: Nikolay Davydenko, Florent Serra, Lukas Lacko
Semifinal predictions: Gasquet over Llodra and Tsonga over Isner
Final: Gasquet over Tsonga
Bank Austria Tennis Trophy
Where: Vienna, Austria
Surface: Indoor Hard
Points: 250
Prize Money: 650,000 Euros
Top Seed: Jurgen Melzer
Defending Champion: Jurgen Melzer
Draw Analysis: For now, Muster is the story and all news is centered around him. The veteran Austrian drew one of the most talented players in the field in Ernests Gulbis, but if Muster’s goal is simply to not get humiliated, this is not a horror scenario. Gulbis’ all-court game is in shambles right now, so Muster should at least be able to hold serve more than a few times.
Assuming the Muster tale ends early, Austrian hopes will rest on defending champion and World Tour Finals contender Jurgen Melzer. The top seed is in a relatively soft section of the draw and he could open with James Blake before a potential quarterfinal clash against Philipp Kohlschreiber.
In the bottom half of the bracket, No. 2 seed and 2009 runner-up Marin Cilic is in a quarter that includes Muster, Gulbis, and Andreas Seppi. With both Cilic and Gulbis slumping, the favorite to reach the final has to be one of two in-form competitors; Bangkok champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Moscow runner-up Marcos Baghdatis.
First-Round Upset Alert: Michael Berrer over (6) Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. This probably won’t happen, but where else would a surprise come? I hate to say it, but Muster just is not going to beat Gulbis based on the Challenger results he has posted. Garcia-Lopez is in outstanding form, although Berrer has been playing some decent tennis as well. If Berrer can put in a lot of first serves and play aggressive tennis, an upset would not be a huge shock.
Hot: Jurgen Melzer, Marcos Baghdatis, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Pablo Cuevas, Florian Mayer
Cold: Marin Cilic, Ernests Gulbis, James Blake, Lukasz Kubot, Xavier Malisse, Andreas Seppi
Semifinals: Jurgen Melzer over Nicolas Almagro and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Marin Cilic
Final: Melzer over Garcia-Lopez
St. Petersburg Open
Where: St. Petersburg
Surface: Indoor Hard
Points: 250
Prize Money: 663,750 Euros
Top Seed: Mikhail Youzhny
Defending Champion: Sergiy Stakhovsky
Draw Analysis: The weakest tournament of the three comes in St. Petersburg, where Sergiy Stakhovsky is back to defend his title as the No. 2 seed. By contrast, he won it as a qualifier last year. The Ukrainian faces a difficult draw with Paul-Henri Mathieu possibly in round two and an in-form Denis Istomin in the quarterfinals.
This week’s favorite has to be the top-seeded Youzhny, who has been playing great tennis this entire season but pulled out of Moscow last week due to a virus. If the Russian is 100 percent, he should be able to take advantage of a friendly draw. His quarter features few—if any—dangerous opponents and his nearest seed is a slumping Victor Hanescu.
Fellow Serbs Viktor Troicki (the Moscow champion) and Janko Tipsarevic (the 2009 runner-up at this event) should continue to make headlines. If Tipsarevic can get past Igor Kunitsyn in his opener, he could go all the way. In the second quarter of the bracket, Troicki will likely be able to take care of business unless Dmitry Tursunov or Alexandr Dolgopolov get on a hot streak.
First-Round Upset Alert: Mikhail Kukushkin over (7) Jeremy Chardy. Interestingly, Kukushkin and Chardy will be meeting in the first round for the second time in as many weeks. To say the last time did not work out well for Chardy would be an understatement. The Frenchman was hammered by Kukushkin 6-2, 6-4 in Moscow. With Kukushkin having been in fine form this entire fall, it’s hard to even consider Chardy the favorite in this one.
In fact, the only seed who appears to be a sure-thing first-round winner is Youzhny. But even he is a bit of a question mark having withdrawn from Moscow. The seed most likely to fall aside from Chardy is Hanescu, who is going up against Moscow quarterfinalist and 2009 St. Petersburg semifinalist Horacio Zeballos.
Hot: Viktor Troicki, Denis Istomin, Mikhail Kukushkin
Cold: Victor Hanescu, Michal Przysiezny, Fabio Fognini, Rainer Schuettler, Filippo Volandri, Michael Russell, Illya Marchenko, Benjamin Becker
Semifinals: Mikhail Youzhny over Alexandr Dolgopolov and Janko Tipsarevic over Denis Istomin
Final: Youzhny over Tipsarevic
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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he isn't
but Ljubo has to play Gasquet or Nieminen in the quarters and the are prob the two best players in the draw at the moment
RickyDimon , 10/25/10 3:29 PM
the quarter with baghdatis and G-L is just loaded with inform players!
croc , 10/25/10 7:42 PM
if tsonga and gasquet face offin the final,I would expect tsonga to win. He would most likely blow gasquet right out of water. The match is in tsongas hands.
tj600 , 10/26/10 1:38 AM
Good call re Kukushkin over Chardy, Ricky, but you really think Gasquet will win in France? Counting on home crowd support for him? He did win in Nice in the spring but he was playing better than, I think...
Ramara , 10/26/10 1:39 PM
last year there was like 7 frenchmen in the quarters of lyon, but ljubicic won the title. and hammering the spaniards this year in DC. the frenchmen have a habit of playing good on home court.
croc , 10/26/10 6:35 PM
Monfils played great vs Spain in the DC this year. Not so sure that it's so much the hc advantage as maybe on-court coaching and teammates. Maybe it keeps him focused on his tennis instead of showboating.
Ramara , 10/27/10 5:14 PM
Kukushkin stayed hot...all week long...in the finals! Sd from ATL.
scoot , 10/31/10 10:04 PM
Muster.. you are great.
tennisnba , 11/4/10 8:11 PM
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the way ljubicic played in stockholm, he'll win the title in montpellier.
please, in what way is taylor dent daunting? it's tennis, not sumo wrestling
croc , 10/25/10 11:18 AM