Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal, Del Potro back in action, Murray returns

  2010-10-04 04:49:48
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  This time last year, the ATP World Tour looked more like an infirmary than a tennis circuit. Thankfully, that’s not exactly the case in 2011.
  
  Just how healthy is everyone right now? Consider: this is not a Grand Slam week, it’s not even a Masters Series week, and still 23 of the Top 25 players in the world are playing. That is absolutely unheard of. The only two of the Top 25 who aren’t taking part in either Tokyo or Beijing are Roger Federer and fellow Swiss Stansislas Wawrinka. And they aren’t hurt; just resting.

   

  Beijing boasts the deepest field with seven of the Top 10 players in the world participating, led by Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Robin Soderling. But Tokyo—like Bangkok last week—has some serious star power with Rafael Nadal and the continued comeback of Juan Martin Del Potro.

   

  Rakuten Japan Open
  

   

  Where: Tokyo, Japan
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $1,100,000
  Points: 500

   

  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending Champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

   

  Draw Analysis: Just like he was last week in Bangkok, Nadal is a considerable favorite to win the title in Tokyo (albeit to a lesser extent). The Spaniard shockingly came up short at the Thailand Open, but you have to like his chances at his second tournament of the fall season.
  
  Nadal has some serious threats in this event, but all of them have some issues. Del Potro is in just the second week of his comeback, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has not played a match in more than three months, and Andy Roddick is slumping along with Ernests Gulbis. Frenchmen Gael Monfils and Michael Llodra are dangerous, but both are in the bottom half of the bracket.
  
  The world No. 1 should race through to the quarterfinals, where he will likely run into either Gulbis or Richard Gasquet. Potential semifinal opponents for Nadal include Del Potro, Feliciano Lopez, and an in-form Jurgen Melzer.
  
  The bottom section should be interesting, as it is completely wide open. All of the favorites are vulnerable, so Radek Stepanek, Jeremy Chardy, and Bangkok runner-up Jarkko Nieminen will be looking to capitalize on an opportunity. Roddick and Monfils could meet in the quarters, while Tsonga opens with Nieminen and could battle Llodra for a spot in the semis.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Juan Martin Del Potro over (6) Feliciano Lopez. Under normal circumstances, Del Potro would obviously be the favorite in this one. But in this case, the seeding really doesn’t lie; Lopez is, in fact, the favorite due to Del Potro’s rust. Still, Delpo looked pretty good last week in Bangkok despite losing his first match since January to Olivier Rochus. Lopez reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and he is dangerous indoors, but don’t be surprised if Del Potro gets back into the win column.
  
  Tsonga and Gulbis also seem ripe for an early upset. The Frenchman has not played since Wimbledon because of a knee injury and the Latvian has been in a funk ever since tweaking a hamstring at the French Open. Nieminen is coming off a final appearance in Bangkok and could be ready to take advantage of Tsonga; Gulbis is going up against Dmitry Tursunov, whose similar ball-bashing style could pay off in the form of an upset.

   

  Hot: Rafael Nadal, Jurgen Melzer, Santiago Giraldo, Milos Raonic, Richard Gasquet, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Jarkko Nieminen

   

  Cold: Andy Roddick, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Ernests Gulbis, Dmitry Tursunov, Viktor Troicki, Rajeev Ram, Juan Martin Del Potro, Marco Chiudinelli, Radek Stepanek, Andreas Seppi

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Gael Monfils over Michael Llodra and Rafael Nadal over Jurgen Melzer

   

  Final Prediction: Nadal over Monfils

   

  China Open
  

   

  Where: Beijing, China
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $2,100,000
  Points: 500

   

  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic

   

  Draw Analysis: Seven of the Top 10 players in the world? The No. 14 player in the world is unseeded? It’s safe to say 500-point tournaments don’t get much better than this.
  
  The Beijing field is so good that we could get a rematch of a Wimbledon semifinal as early as the quarterfinals. Djokovic and Tomas Berdych are in the same section of the draw, although Djokovic will likely have to get past either Janko Tipsarevic or Mardy Fish and a second-round clash against either Gilles Simon or Sam Querrey probably awaits Berdych.
  
  Seeds Nikolay Davydenko and Fernando Verdasco could have similar trouble in a second quarter of the bracket that is almost as tough. Unseeded threats John Isner, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Marin Cilic will be looking to crash the party. Verdasco opens with Kohlschreiber and could meet Isner in round two, while Davydenko and Cilic are on course for a second-round encounter.
  
  The bottom half of the draw is remarkably similar to last week’s tournament in Kuala Lumpur. Making their way from Malaysia to China are Denis Istomin (second round in KL), Alexandr Dolgopolov (second round), Marcos Baghdatis (quarterfinalist), Soderling (quarterfinalist), David Ferrer (semifinalist), Andrey Golubev (runner-up), and Mikhail Youzhny (champion).
  
  Murray, on the other hand, is making his first appearance since a stunning third-round U.S. Open loss to Wawrinka. The Scot’s potential path through his Beijing quarter includes Paul-Henri Mathieu, Golubev, and either Youzhny or Baghdatis.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Philipp Kohlschreiber over (6) Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco had a big clay-court season leading up to the French Open, but he has done almost nothing since aside from his quarterfinal run at the U.S. Open. The Spaniard is coming off a second-round loss to Benjamin Becker in Bangkok. Kohlschreiber also does not have much to write home about of late, but he did reach the Metz semifinals last month. The German is 4-4 lifetime against Verdasco, so an upset would not come as a major surprise.
  
  Also watch out for Davydenko vs. Florian Mayer. Davydenko has a ton of points to defend between now and the end of the season and his current form does not bode well for that effort. Ferrer should handle Istomin and Youzhny should take care of Ljubicic, but those two seeds are coming off relatively long weeks in Kuala Lumpur.

   

  Hot: Novak Djokovic, Mikahil Youzhny, David Ferrer, Mardy Fish, Gilles Simon, Denis Istomin. Marcos Baghdatis, Andrey Golubev, Albert Montanes

   

  Cold: Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic, Lukasz Kubot, Ivan Ljubicic

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling over Andy Murray

   

  Final Prediction: Djokovic over Soderling

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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