Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Bucharest, Metz welcome return of ATP Tour

  2010-09-20 17:52:00
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  The one-week break after the U.S. Open is open, Davis Cup has come and gone, and now the fall season is underway. A host of 500-point events, two Masters tournaments, and the World Tour Finals are on the horizon, but first a pair of 250-pointers take the stage.

   

  Clay-court specialists, including an in-form Albert Montanes, have another shot at glory on the dirt of Bucharest, Romania. At the other end of the surface spectrum, the indoor hard-court swing gets started in Metz, France. Cilic leads a field that features almost the entire French Davis Cup team.

   

  BCR Open Romania

   

  Where: Bucharest, Romania
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 420,200 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Albert Montanes
  Defending Champion: Albert Montanes

   

  Draw Analysis: Last season Montanes won this tournament as the No. 5 seed. One year later, the Spaniard is playing the best tennis of his life and he returns as the top seed.

   

  Montanes has to be considered an overwhelming favorite to make it back-to-back titles in Bucharest. There are, to be sure, plenty of other clay-court specialists in the field, but not one is at the level of Montanes. The world No. 22 (career-high) is coming off a fourth-round showing at the U.S. Open, and if he can do that on a hard court, who knows what he can do this week.

   

  Fabio Fognini and Jeremy Chardy have the bad luck of being placed near Montanes in the draw. Fognini is one of the more dangerous unseeded contestants in this event, but he would run into the No. 1 seed if he beats Tobias Kamke in his opener. Chardy, seeded eighth, should have no trouble setting up a quarterfinal clash with Montanes.

   

  The rest of the draw is simply wide open. Victor Hanescu, Romania’s best hope and a former finalist at the tournament (2007), is seeded sixth. He faces a relatively tough path that begins with Marcel Granollers and could also pit him against Filippo Volandri and Potito Starace prior to the semifinals.

   

  Also looking to make headlines this week are No. 2 seed Florian Mayer and fourth-seeded Juan Ignacio Chela. Both players are recovering nicely from disappointing 2009 seasons and have legitimate title hopes. Chela is in the same section of the bracket as No. 7 seed Andreas Seppi and Mayer’s nearest seed is Daniel Gimeno-Traver. That’s probably not good news for Mayer, as Gimeno-Traver—like his fellow Spaniard, Montanes—recently enjoyed a surprising performance in New York (third round). And, of course, DGT is far more dangerous on clay.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Marcel Granollers over (6) Victor Hanescu. Hanescu may have reached the final in 2007, but he is still just 12-7 lifetime at his home ATP event; in other words, just about an even record other than that one year. The 6'6'' Romanian generally does his best work on clay, but so too does his opponent. Granollers, ranked 35 spots behind Hanescu at No. 87 in the world, captured his lone ATP title on the clay courts of Houston in 2008. Hanescu should get the job done, but it would not be shocking to see the fans go home disappointed from this one.

   

  Hot: Albert Montanes, Daniel Gimeno-Traver

   

  Cold: Andreas Seppi, Maximo Gonzalez

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Albert Montanes over Juan Ignacio Chela and Victor Hanescu over Daniel Gimeno-Traver

   

  Final Prediction: Montanes over Hanescu

   

  Open de Moselle

   

  Where: Metz, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Marin Cilic
  Defending Champion: Gael Monfils

   

  Draw Analysis: Considering the success of the French national team, which booked a spot in the Davis Cup final over the weekend, it should come as no surprise that Metz boasts a strong field by 250-point tournament standards.

   

  In fact, all four members of the French semifinal team are making their way to Metz (Gael Monfils, Michael Llodra, Arnaud Clement, and Gilles Simon). They led the host nation to a 5-0 sweep of Argentina, with live singles victories being scored by Monfils and Llodra and the doubles point going to Llodra and Clement. Simon won a dead singles rubber over Eduardo Schwank.

   

  The Metz draw is not a kind one for Monfils and Llodra. Arguably the two primary favorites to capture the Open de Moselle title, they are in the same bottom section of the draw and therefore on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Monfils, the defending champion and No. 2 seed, has a first-round bye while Llodra, seeded fifth, opens against Kristof Vliegen.

   

  Aside from the Frenchmen, the field got even stronger when Cilic accepted a late wild card into the event. The 6’6’’ Croat is the top seed and heads a group of eight that—in addition to three of the four Davis Cup Frenchman—also includes Ivan Ljubicic, Richard Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Tommy Robredo.
  
  Cilic could kick off his Metz campaign against Clement prior to a potential quarterfinal clash with Kohlschreiber. Simon and Ljubicic are in a relatively wide open second section of the draw that also includes Xavier Malisse and Dustin Brown. In the third quarter, Gasquet and Robredo could be challenged by Denis Istomin and Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Dustin Brown over (8) Gilles Simon. This potential upset should not happen, but because four of the eight seeds have byes to round two, it’s the only real possibility. Brown is a flashy Jamaican whose aggressive style of play should work well on indoor hard courts. Simon will likely be too consistent, but a surprise is possible if the Frenchman’s knee still isn’t 100 percent.

   

  Looking ahead to the second round, Ljubicic could be in trouble if he goes up against Malisse and an all-French encounter between Gasquet and Mathieu would almost certainly be entertaining. Malisse played well throughout most of the summer hard-court season and Mathieu reached the third round of the U.S. Open.

   

  Hot: Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet, Michael Llodra, Denis Istomin

   

  Cold: Marin Cilic, Ivan Ljubicic, Rainer Schuettler, Kristof Vliegen

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Gilles Simon over Marin Cilic and Michael Llodra over Richard Gasquet

   

  Final Prediction: Llodra over Simon

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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