Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal goes for first U.S. Open title

  2010-08-29 16:12:56
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week. This is the fourth of Ricky’s five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
  
  Part 1: Draw analysis
  Part 2: Top 25 contenders
  Part 3: Nadal and Federer breakdown
  Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
  Part 5: Full tournament predictions
  
  U.S. Open

   

  Where: Flushing, New York
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: 15,916,000
  Points: 2000

   

  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  2009 Champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)

   

  First-Round Upset Alerts

   

  Fabio Fognini over (8) Fernando Verdasco – Fognini beat Verdasco in the Wimbledon first round, so why can’t he do it again? The Italian showed signs of decent hard-court tennis by qualifying for Toronto and advancing one round. Verdasco has not shown much of anything since the clay-court swing.
  
  Alexandr Dolgopolov over (10) David Ferrer – Dolgopolov and Ferrer also faced each other in the Cincinnati first round, with Ferrer prevailing 6-4 in the third. Dolgopolov has been one of the breakout stars on tour this season and with Ferrer outside of his preferred surface of clay, an upset is possible.

   

  Illya Marchenko over (11) Marin Cilic – Cilic somehow beat Mardy Fish in Washington and went on to reach the semifinals, but other than that he has done almost nothing this summer. Marchenko is making a name for himself this season and the 22-year-old Ukrainian got some nice preparation for this tournament with a solid U.S. Open Series.

   

  Andrey Golubev over (12) Mikhail Youzhny – Golubev came out of virtually nowhere to win a 500-point title in Hamburg earlier this summer. That is inflating both his ranking and the way people think about him, but he really does have a chance in this one. Youzhny had  a great start to the season, but the Russian has cooled off.

   

  Jeremy Chardy over (24) Ernests Gulbis – Gulbis is 2-0 lifetime against Chardy and has no real reason to this one…. But he has no real reason to lose a lot of the matches he ends up losing. Chardy and Gulbis are two of the streakiest players on tour so you don’t know what you’re going to get and anything is possible. But the edge in current form goes to Gulbis.

   

  Julien Benneteau over (28) Radek Stepanek – This is only an upset according to seed, of course. Stepanek has basically been non-existent this year due to injury and fatigue, while Benneteau once again heated up for the Open with an impressive showing in Cincinnati. Count on the Frenchman winning this one, and probably in straights.

   

  Paul-Henri Mathieu over (32) Lleyton Hewitt – Hewitt has always been plagued by injury problems and this season is no different. First it was hip surgery, now—less seriously—it is a calf strain. The good news for Hewitt is that Mathieu has also been dealing with physical problems this entire year. Needless to say, the healthier player is going to win this one.

   

  Hot

   

  Rafael Nadal – Cooled off only a little in Toronto and Cincinnati; still has two Grand Slam titles in the last three months and a third in four months would give him a career slam.

   

  Roger Federer – Heated up just in time with a second consecutive title in Cincinnati.

   

  Andy Murray – Won the U.S. Open Series with a runner-up in Los Angeles, a title in Toronto, and a quarterfinal finish in Cincinnati.

   

  Tomas Berdych – Endured a minor setback in three summer hard-court tournaments, but a semifinal at the French Open and runner-up at Wimbledon have to be fresh in his mind.

   

  Marcos Baghdatis – One of this summer’s hottest players, he reached the Washington final and beat Nadal en route to the Cincy semifinals.

   

  Mardy Fish – Captured back-to-back titles in Newport and Atlanta then made it to the Cincinnati final before falling to Federer in three tight sets.

   

  David Nalbandian – One of the three players outside the Top 16 (along with Baghdatis and Fish) whom nobody wants to face, Nalbandian won the Washington title and reached the quarters in Toronto.

   

  Cold
  
  Nikolay Davydenko – Underwent wrist surgery in the spring and is just now returning to form. It might not be in time for a good showing at the U.S. Open, though.

   

  Fernando Verdasco – Enjoyed an awesome run on the clay during the spring, but has disappeared since. Verdasco owns a 4-6 match record since the French Open.

   

  Marin Cilic – Started the season in typically hot fashion, but is not the same player at the moment. He lost his opener at two of three U.S. Open Series events and is 5-6 since Roland Garros.

   

  Ivan Ljubicic – Won a shock Indian Wells title this spring, but it has been downhill ever since. The 31-year-old has won only one of his last six matches.

   

  Juan Carlos Ferrero – His form has been consistently good this year; the only problem is that Ferrero has not played since mid-July due to a knee injury and illness.

   

  Stanislas Wawrinka – Fared well on clay, but—not surprisingly—a move to faster surfaces hurt him. The Swiss is a mere 2-4 at the ATP level since the French Open.

   

  Fernando Gonzalez – Has played just 22 matches this season, including only one since Roland Garros due to knee tendonitis. The one match was a loss to Radek Stepanek last week in New Haven….

   

  Radek Stepanek – ….and a loss to Stepanek right now is not a good one. The veteran Czech has missed most of the season due to fatigue and he ended up getting blown out by Viktor Troicki in New Haven.

   

  Juan Monaco – Suffering with a wrist injury, he has not played a match since the French Open.
  
  Lleyton Hewitt – A calf strain derailed his U.S. Open Series, but he at least looked decent in Cincinnati. He also split from coach Nathan Healey earlier this week.

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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