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2010-08-28 19:28:44
This is the second of Ricky's five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
Part 1: Draw analysis
Part 2: Top 25 contenders
Part 3: Nadal and Federer breakdown
Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
Part 5: Full tournament predictions
Why Nadal will win
Nadal is the No. 1 player in the world…with room to spare. He is an eight-time Grand Slam champion and two of those titles have come in the past three months. The U.S. Open, of course, is the one major Nadal lacks; but that also means he wants it the most. In fact, after winning the French Open earlier this season, Nadal—in his post-match interview—made no mention of Wimbledon and instead told John McEnroe that he was already gunning for the U.S. Open. Play that over and over on your TiVo right now if you’re a Nadal fan…music to your ears.
Winning a Grand Slam on a fast hard court is a much different proposition, but Nadal has proven that at least has the capability. He won the 2009 Australian Open on a hard court (albeit a much more favorable surface) and he reached the semifinals of last year’s U.S. Open despite playing with bad knees and a pulled abdominal muscle.
Why Federer will win
Why Federer won’t win is the real question (see below), because the arguments for another Federer triumph are plentiful. He is a five-time champion of this tournament, has won 41 of his last 42 matches at Flushing Meadows, and owns a 52-5 career record. He is somewhat of a defending champion since Juan Martin Del Potro is out with a wrist injury (in other words, no other play in the field has won this title since Andy Roddick in 2003).
Federer has not enjoyed one of his best seasons, but he won the other hard-court slam (the Australian Open) and appears to be rounding into form at just the right time. The second-ranked Swiss finished runner-up to Andy Murray in Toronto then won his second straight Cincinnati title. Combine past history with current form and Federer has to be the odds-on favorite.
Why Nadal will lose
Nothing about this tournament sets up well for Nadal. Not only is it played on fast hard courts, but it is also toward the end of a grueling season. The top-ranked Spaniard is a two-time semifinalist, but he got thoroughly outclassed on both of those occasions by Murray and—to a greater extent—Del Potro. Nadal was not yet a force on tour in 2003 and 2004 for his first two U.S. Open visits, but after that he suffered surprising losses to James Blake, Mikhail Youzhny, and David Ferrer. Recent losses to Murray in Toronto and Baghdatis in Cincinnati do not bode well heading into New York. Furthermore, David Nalbandian in his quarter and Murray in his half is not a favorable draw.
Why Federer will lose
Despite recent strong showings during the U.S. Open Series, Federer simply has not been on top of his game since winning the Aussie Open. The No. 2 seed endured surprising upsets in Indian Wells and Miami, saw his Grand Slam semifinal streak snapped by Robin Soderling in the French Open quarters, and even lost in the quarters of Wimbledon (to Tomas Berdych). He easily could have lost earlier in Toronto (to Berdych) before getting straight-setted by Murray in the final, and he got plenty of breaks in Cincinnati (a retirement, a walkover, and a Nadal loss in the top half of the bracket). Federer, who barely beat Mardy Fish in the Cincy final, needs to raise his level by the second week.
Nadal’s probable path to the final
R1: Teymuraz Gabashvili
R2: Denis Istomin
R3: Philipp Kohlschreiber
R4: Sergiy Stakhovsky
QF: David Nalbandian
SF: Andy Murray
Federer’s probable path to the final
R1: Brian Dabul
R2: Andreas Beck
R3: Lleyton Hewitt
R4: Jurgen Melzer
QF: Robin Soderling
SF: Novak Djokovic
Nadal’s possible path to the final
R1: Teymuraz Gabashvili
R2: Maximo Gonzalez
R3: Gilles Simon
R4: Ivan Ljubicic
QF: Ernests Gulbis
SF: Tomas Berdych
Federer’s possible path to the final
R1: Brian Dabul
R2: Michael Berrer
R3: Paul-Henri Mathieu
R4: Juan Carlos Ferrero
QF: Marin Cilic
SF: Andy Roddick
Bottom line
If you’re a fan of the Federer-Nadal rivalry, don’t hold your breath for another Grand Slam meeting between the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the world. The good news, of course, is that if they do end up facing each other, it will be in the final. Still, there’s a long way to go before that would happen. Week one of the U.S. Open should be routine for both Federer and Nadal, but it will get tough in a hurry.
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http://www.usopen.org/en_US/interactive/video/index.html?vf=rtmp://cp3 2053.edgefcs.net/ondemand/mp4:2010/ATG_20100826_05_EN_640x360_764kbps_ menspreview.mp4
another expert picking rafa to win .
vamosrafa , 8/29/10 2:29 AM
Thanks for the breakdown Ricky ... whatever happens this time around, It feels like it will be an especially tough US Open for whoever ends up on the court on Sept. 12.
smr , 8/29/10 2:34 AM
I think Murray won. Or, Roger's sixsh. Novak. Robin. AndyR.
tennisnba , 8/29/10 5:13 AM
vamosrafa,
I tried that link and all I get is a message saying there are no videos. Who made the prediction that Rafa will win?
Maybe I did something wrong, but I just cut and pasted the link.
Nativenewyorker , 8/29/10 7:06 AM
Ricky, it would be interesting to have your take as well on why Djokovic and Murray will win or lose the USO.
The above is a balanced view, by the way.
nadline , 8/29/10 11:19 AM
It's analysis like the above from Ricky, plus Cheryl's intriguing blogs, that keep us glued to TT!
ed251137 , 8/29/10 1:41 PM
NNY .. maybe it was Lil Wayne ;).
smr , 8/29/10 2:32 PM
ed251137, 8/29/10 1:41 PM,
I completely agree! This was an excellent analysis of the respective prospects of winning and losing for our top two players.
Great read!
Nativenewyorker , 8/29/10 9:31 PM
Makes sense that #1 plays in same quarter as #8, but why isn't #2 in the same quarter as #7, then #3 with #6 and then #4 with #5. The way it is now set up #2 would play #5 in the bottom quarter - i.e. Federer vs. Soderling not Fed vs. #7 Berdych. The quarter with Murray #4 gets to play #7. Hence #4 gets an easier draw than #2 Fed. Seems like a bit of an unfair advantage for the #1 seated player
Mike , 8/29/10 9:32 PM
Seems a bit pointless Ricky doing an analysis on Nadal winning or losing when as far as he is concerned, Rafa is not going to get to the final anyway.
The analysis should be about Federer and Murray who Ricky has predicted will get to the final.
nadline , 8/29/10 11:41 PM
nadline...the funny thing is I don't feel either Fed nor Murray will get to the final.
But it is interesting to read...:)
If Rafa gets to the final, no one is beating him, which I think will be the case!
isabeau77 , 8/30/10 3:22 AM
Roger Federer is on full alert, and as ready as can be to win this years US Open. He is in great shape, and knows more than anyone what it will take to win this years Flushing Meadows. With Annacone coaching him we can expect less mental lapses, and many more focused agrresive plays. Many of us have seen, and commented on the signs of change with Roger in Toronto, and Cincinati. I am expecting a Roger Federer who is at the top of his new found confidence (or very near it). A Roger Federer who will display great war like tennis tactics on the court with speed and grace. A Roger who appears once again more fully comfortable with the energy that champions are made of, a resurrection of Roger (of sorts) into the present (within reason lol) :). Playing like a champ and being a champ in Flushing Meadows. A Roger who is in control of his finer skills at the US Open. I believe Roger will do the afore mentioned better than anybody else, and will reap the rewards. Let the games begin... :)
sky , 8/30/10 6:48 AM
I said that I thought it was an excellent analysis of the hypothetical scenarios for Rafa and Fed either winning and losing.
As far as Ricky's prediction, I didn't say that I agreed with it! :)
Nativenewyorker , 8/30/10 9:17 AM
Ricky: This is an excellent analysis and/or breakown of the pros and cons for the Nos.1 and 2 players to wind and/or lose the USO title. I like it !
Von , 8/30/10 10:14 AM
errata: *wind* s/b *win*.
Von , 8/30/10 10:15 AM
sky. He might still be unstable. However, Roger will show us the beautiful game again.
tennisnba , 8/30/10 12:11 PM
NNY,
You see what I mean? Do you believe me now that this tennisnba was posting bad English in purpose to hide her real idetity...she is no other than maxi a.k.a Rogerlove.
Raindrops , 8/30/10 12:45 PM
Raindrops: I think tennisnba is rogerlove, also am sure s'he's same blogger who pretended to like Andy M and upset everyone right left and centre, gomuzza ?? But really don't think s/he's maxi.
deuce , 8/30/10 1:51 PM
duece: don't you know that maxi is Rogerlove or LoveRoger?
Raindrops , 8/30/10 2:38 PM
Raindrops - is that a fact? I can see Rogerlove and tennisba could be the same person posting gobbledygook but Maxi, while a little demented and by her own admission not very bright, was at least faintly coherent albeit misguided :-)
ed251137 , 8/30/10 2:56 PM
also Raindrops, tennisnba is quite critical of Rog., albeit in a worshipful kindaway, even suggesting he might lose, shock horror... ..maxi would never do that or be critical. You must admit she is a heckofa loyal fan.
deuce , 8/30/10 3:07 PM
Actually I see some similarities in the pain in the butt comments of 'pennster' (aka as Pester) and 'maxi', although Pester is not so persistent!
ed251137 , 8/30/10 3:26 PM
ed: I think pester is a Djkovich fan.
deuce , 8/30/10 3:30 PM
We've been interacting with maxi all these times and that alias of hers is being like a rotten skunk due to her fanaticism to Roger and she is aware of that so she tried to post using dfferent alias and to make her disguise believable, she tried to be sound poor in English but it's obvious that she was just trying to do it intentionally, try to go back and read her previous posts and you will see what I am saying.
Through her posts, you can feel the level of her obsession for Roger is as high as maxi, Loveroger or Rogerlove. I have met a lot of fedfans here at TT but my impression towards maxi, loveRoger, tennisnba and Rogerlove are no different, a one sick person.
Raindrops , 8/30/10 5:20 PM
Oh...I will change my nick to RaindropsLover!!!
You got it right, my friend!!
zare , 8/30/10 11:03 PM
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
Approach Shots: Federer headlines Davis Cup first round
Mon 30/01 19:22
Approach Shots: The calm after the storm
Sat 28/01 15:11
Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Wed 25/01 19:57
Australian Open '12 semifinal expert picks
Mon 23/01 19:02
Australian Open '12 quarterfinal expert picks
Sun 15/01 06:00
2012 Australian Open picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal again
Fri 13/01 04:40
Australian Open draw analysis: Nadal with Federer in bottom half
Sun 08/01 01:56
Approach Shots: Final preparations for Australian Open
Tue 03/01 02:19
2012 World Tour Finals predictions
Mon 02/01 15:08
Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer, Murray open 2012
Mon 05/12 21:20
2012 Davis Cup picks: Argentina for redemption
Fri 02/12 16:02
Approach Shots: Nadal leads Spain in Davis Cup final
Sat 19/11 23:43
World Tour Finals expert picks
Tue 15/11 19:59
Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer in same London group
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I'm going to hold my breath ... just a little :) . Looks like the first day will feature Melanie Oudin, Kim Cljisters (did I put the J in the right place?), Andy Roddick, Venus Williams and ... Roger Federer.
smr , 8/29/10 2:26 AM