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2010-08-27 22:34:51
This is the second of Ricky's five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
Part 1: Draw analysis
Part 2: Top 25 contenders
Part 3: Nadal and Federer breakdown
Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
Part 5: Full tournament predictions
25. Alexandr Dolgopolov – Dolgopolov has earned 15 of his 16 career ATP match wins this season and he is up to No. 43 in the world after starting the year at No. 131. The 21-year-old Ukrainian has to play David Ferrer in the first round (they also played in Cincinnati, where Ferrer won in three sets), but if he can score the upset, nobody in that eighth of the draw is unbeatable.
24. John Isner – If he did not have any health concerns, Isner would likely be among the Top 10 contenders. He reached the fourth round in 2009, often does his best work on U.S. hard courts, has a solid No. 18 seed, and has a great draw to reach at least the fourth round. The 6’9’’ American, however, sustained a badly sprained ankle in Cincinnati and might not be able to suit up.
23. Richard Gasquet – Gasquet could meet Nikolay Davydenko in the second round, but—unlike in some years—that is a very winnable match right now. The good draw news for Gasquet is that he is in the most wide open section, so there is really no limit on his potential. Furthermore, the Frenchman is 26-16 this season, back up to No. 37 in the world, and recently made it to the Cincinnati third round.
22. Thiemo De Bakker – De Bakker’s case is similar to that of Gasquet: tough early-round draw, pretty open after that, and he is coming off a solid showing. The 21-year-old Dutchman could face Fernando Gonzalez in round two and Robin Soderling in round three, but nobody is particularly daunting until Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. De Bakker is 24-17 for his 2010 campaign and reached the New Have semis this week before falling to Sergiy Stakhovsky.
21. Fernando Verdasco – Verdasco was one of the hottest players in the business heading into the French Open. But he wore himself out with too many matches on clay and things are much different going into New York. Verdasco struggled en route to the Washington quarters, lost his second match in Toronto, and dropped his opener in Cincinnati. To make matters worse, the Spanaird would run into David Nalbandian in the U.S. Open third round if both players make it that far.
20. Julien Benneteau – Once again, Benneteau performed well in Cincinnati for some momentum heading into New York. The Frenchman reached the Cincy quarters last year than advanced to round three at the Open. He won two matches this year in Cincy and was one point away from beating Rafael Nadal, and he should make it back to the third round at the big one. Benneteau opens with a rusty Radek Stepanek and would be a considerable favorite against a slumping Tommy Robredo in round two.
19. David Ferrer – Ferrer is the No. 10 seed, but his draw is not good. After opening with Dolgopolov, he could go up against Ernests Gulbis in the third round and Nalbandian in the fourth. That’s doable, but certainly not favorable. Ferrer was absolutely on fire during the clay-court swing and while he is not the same player on hard courts, he is a former U.S Open semifinalist (2007). He cannot be discounted, and a return trip to the quarters is not out of the question.
18. Sergiy Stakhovsky – That’s right; SERGIY STAKHOVSKY. He has never done much at Grand Slams, but he won the ‘s-Hertogenbosch title in June (without dropping a set), beat Gasquet in Toronto, took Andy Roddick to three in Cincy, and is currently in the New Haven final. Plus, Stakhovsky’s U.S. Open draw is just amazing. His nearest seeds are Ivan Ljubicic and Feliciano Lopez, which means he SHOULD reach the fourth round to play Nadal.
17. Nicolas Almagro – Almagro is generally thought of as a clay-court specialist (and for good reason), but he has reached the U.S. Open third round each of the past three years. He lost to Gilles Muller in a 2008 thriller and tested Nadal in three tight sets last season. The Spaniard has not been in great form on hard courts this summer, but the first two rounds of his draw are friendly and his potential third-round opponent is Sam Querrey. Seeing Almagro in the fourth round vs. Andy Murray would not be a total shocker.
16. Marin Cilic – A quarterfinalist at last year’s Open, Cilic stunned Murray before going down to eventual champion Juan Martin Del Potro. The difference between now and then is that Cilic was in great form prior to the 2009 event. This time—not so much. He has done almost nothing since reaching the fourth round of the French Open, but he does have a decent draw. Cilic’s nearest seed is clay-court wizard (hard-court novice) Albert Montanes, so the 6’6’’ Croat should somehow make it to round four.
15. Mikhail Youzhny – Youzhny lost early in Toronto and Cincinnati, but he is still in the midst of an extremely consistent season so his confidence should still be high. His U.S. Open draw is tough with a potential path to the fourth round that includes Andrey Golubev, Xavier Malisse, and Isner. However, Malisse and Isner are dealing with injuries and Golubev, for now, is a one-tournament wonder (Hamburg title). You have to like the Russian’s chances of making the second week in New York.
14. Ernests Gulbis – Gulbis was on fire heading into the French Open, but a pulled hamstring forced him out in the first round and sidelined him at Wimbledon. The 21-year-old Latvian appears to be back on track with two wins in Cincinnati followed by a third-set tiebreaker loss to Murray. Gulbis opens in New York with Jeremy Chardy and might get Ferrer in round three, but he has to be favored to reach the second week for the first time since 2007.
13. Jurgen Melzer – At 29 years old, Melzer had never been to the fourth round of a Grand Slam prior to this year’s French Open (a hard-to-believe 0-11 lifetime in third rounds). But he reached the French semis and promptly made it to round four at Wimbledon. The streak (yes, for Melzer two is a streak) should continue in New York as the Austrian Opens with a rusty Dmitry Tursunov and his nearest seed is a rusty Juan Carlos Ferrero.
12. Sam Querrey – Like Melzer, Querrey has been past the third round of slams just twice (of course, he is seven years younger than Melzer at 22 years old). Still, Querrey is thought of as a slam underachiever mainly because he is so good at smaller tournaments. Case in point: he upset Murray earlier this summer to win the Los Angeles title. Querrey has to be confident right now and the draw sets up perfectly for him to reach the fourth round…and set up a rematch with Murray.
11. Nikolay Davydenko – The bad news for Davydenko is that he has missed much of this season due to a wrist injury. However, he won one match in Toronto and earned two victories in Cincinnati, including a hard-fought three-setter over Ferrer. The good news for Davydenko is that he is in the most wide open section of the U.S. Open draw with Roddick and Novak Djokovic. If the Russian can get past Michael Russell and then Gasquet, who knows how far he could go.
10. Marcos Baghdatis – Baghdatis is one of the hottest players on tour heading into the U.S. Open. He finished runner-up to Nalbandian in Washington, beat Nadal in Cincy to reach the semis, and advanced to the New Haven quarterfinals before losing to Stakhovsky in a third-set tiebreaker. Unfortunately, Baghdatis might have to play a similarly on-fire opponent (Mardy Fish) in the third round. The winner of that match has a realistic shot at making it to the semifinals out of Djokovic’s section of the draw.
9. David Nalbandian – Nalbandian erupted this summer with a title in Washington and a quarterfinal showing in Toronto. He also reached the third round in Cincy, but he got a retirement from Isner and then got blasted by Djokovic. The Argentine amazingly earned a seed in New York, though he was at risk for a bad draw as such a low seed (No. 31). However, his nearest seeded opponent is a slumping Verdasco and Nalbandian has to be favored to reach the quarterfinals out of his eighth of the bracket.
8. Mardy Fish – Like Baghdatis and Nalbandian, Fish is one of the in-form players of the summer. A slim and trim Fish won back-to-back titles in Newport and Atlanta, then finished runner-up to Federer in Cincinnati. The potential third-round clash against Baghdatis is just brutal, but the edge has to go to Fish with a home-court advantage and a favorable history at the U.S. Open (2008 quarterfinalist, while Baghdatis is a mere 2-4 lifetime in NYC).
7. Robin Soderling – Soderling struggled in Toronto and Cincinnati, but he has been a Grand Slam force over the past two years. This season he reached a second straight French Open final and appeared in the Wimbledon quarters. He also reached the U.S. Open quarters for the first time in 2009. Furthermore, Soderling has a great draw as his three nearest seeds are far from imposing (Gonzalez has been hurt, Cilic is slumping, and Montanes is scary only on clay). Chalk up a Federer-Soderling QF rematch.
6. Andy Roddick – Roddick did not have a typical summer on the U.S. hard courts, in part because he was coming off a minor bout with mono. But he could not have asked for more from the Open draw, as he is in the wide open section with Djokovic and Davydenko. America’s No. 1 player could have a tricky second-rounder against Janko Tipsarevic, but he is a huge favorite to reach the quarters and he has a great shot at the semis.
5. Tomas Berdych – Berdych has never done much at the U.S. Open, but—then again—he had never done much at any slam prior to this season. Now the Czech is a different player and he is coming off a semifinal at the French and final at Wimbledon. Berdych faces a tough opener against Michael Llodra, but his only other threat in that eighth of the draw is Isner. If Isner pulls out or is not 100 percent, Berdych should coast into the quarters. And don’t discount him as a contender to win the whole thing.
4. Rafael Nadal – Nadal has already won two slams this season and his lead atop the ATP rankings is massive, but he remains an unproven commodity on fast hard courts (especially at the U.S. Open). The Spaniard reached the semifinals last year but got two, two, and two-ed by Del Potro. Nadal’s recent hard-court results (loss to Murray in the Toronto semis, loss to Baghdatis in the Cincy quarters), suggest that things might not be so different this time around in New York.
3. Novak Djokovic – Djokovic is the least talked-about of the top four players in the world at the moment, but he has been quietly solid. The Serb made it to the semis of Wimbledon, won two Davis Cup rubbers over Croatia without losing a set, and reached the semis and quarters of Toronto and Cincy, respectively. His last three U.S. Open performances? Final, semis, and semis. Djokovic does not have a great draw with Fish and Baghdatis nearby, but he remains a serious title contender.
2. Andy Murray – The top two favorites for the 2010 U.S. Open have to be Murray and Federer, and not necessarily in that order. Murray is the U.S. Open Series champion after a runner-up in Los Angeles, a title in Toronto, and a quarterfinal showing in Cincinnati. The fourth-ranked Scot lost early in New York last year to Cilic, but he was the 2008 runner-up and the draw sets up favorably for him to make it at least that far this time around.
1. Roger Federer – Federer has to get the nod over Murray (and everyone else) as the Swiss is a five-time champion of this event and has won 41 of his last 42 matches at Flushing Meadows. Overall, he is a ridiculous 52-5 at the U.S. Open. With Del Potro out, Federer is also the closest thing this tournament has to a defending champion. While the world No. 2 lost early (by his standards) at the French Open and Wimbledon, he heated up just in time with yet another title in Cincinnati. The early stages of Federer’s draw should be no problem whatsoever, so look for him to have plenty left in the tank for week two.
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Well, vij, I think Fed has a really good chance this time to win his 6th U.S. Open. Look at his quarter~ Who can contend for the final spot in Federer's quarter or even in his half? Whoever illumes from Djoker's quarter will not go to be a real threat for Fed. I am already dreaming of Nadal vs. Federer final~
Colleen , 8/28/10 1:10 AM
vij - these are not my predictions; my predictions will be out on Sunday
these are just the Top 25 contenders for the title
RickyDimon , 8/28/10 1:22 AM
ricky's likely picks : murray over rafa and fed over rod/fish
then fed over murray :)
but its true that fed has a really good chance.
vamosrafa , 8/28/10 1:43 AM
Rafa played with abdominal injury last year and he managed to reach semis...he is healthy this time around...you write him off easily and I totally disagree with it...if Rafa is able to reach finals this year (which means beating Andy or Berdy in semis) there is nobody, absolutely NOBODY who could stop him from wining the title...he is so hungry for this one, he will fight to the end...after all, he has nothing to lose following USO as he has little points to defend...until now he was careful not to get injured because he wanted to be physically healthy for USO...having said that this year I believe we shall see much stronger Rafa both physically and mentally...VAMOS RAFA!!!
Nole almost beat Fed in Toronto, he came so close but choked at key moments...I hope he is aware of that. He should be able to deal with Fed this time! This is his big opportunity which he should not miss! Whenever Nole was handed an easy draw he seemed to have struggled with those who were expected not to create any problems for him...but he was always able to deliver his best tennis against the big ones...IMO none of the guys (Baggy, Fish) present a treat for him, he will beat them easily in the same manner he dealt with Nalby...Ajde Nole!
And, although I am a BIG Rafa fan, I must confess one thing: I simply adore the way Nalbandian plays tennis...he could be so great that I just can not help myself but admire his game...I was so disappointed to see him on Rafa's side of the draw...of course I will cheer for my dear Rafa but I was hoping to see Nalby making someone else life difficult...lol...
VAMOS RAFA!!!
natashao , 8/28/10 2:05 AM
Natashao, no need to feel disappointed about Nalby in Rafa's quarter. It may be a Rafa/Nalby QF, and I know Rafa will beat Nalby over a best of five set match. It will then be a Rafa/Murray semi, with Rafa winning this time, as Rafa won't want to lose to Murray on the hard courts and in a slam too many times. Rafa will think of a way to win, and I'm confident a fresh and ready Rafa can beat anyone on the hard court over a best of five set match(over a best of three set match, Rafa is more vulnerable on a hard court).
I think this time if Nole meets Fed in the semi, Nole will beat Fed. Judging from how Nole
played in Toronto, I know he is steadily returning to his best level. If we looked at how Nole played against Fed at the USO in the past, we can see that Nole ran Fed close, Fed beats Nole in tight sets. I'm sure Nole is sick of losing to Fed yet again at the USO. Unless Fed meets someone else in the SF, I'll predict a Nole/Rafa final this time, and they can go the distance to beat each other, and need not worry about no more energy left for their next match(like when the met in semifinal and have the final to think about).
luckystar , 8/28/10 4:09 AM
I find myself in agreement with the comments about how Djoker played Fed in Toronto. I didn't see the first set, in which he appeard not to even showup, but did see the second and third sets. I was reminded of just how brilliant Djoker can play when he actually decides to bring his best. He was pounding Fed with his groundstrokes and wearing him down. The last thing Fed needed was a late three set match. Djoker could have won that match, but he did his usual mental brain cramp when serving to get into the tb in that third set. I think Djoker's tennis wore Fed out and he came out and played like a tired man in the final with Murray.
The reason people don't take Djoker seriously is because of how mentally weak he can be. The talent is there. It always has been. This is unquestionably his best surface. The question is, will be he ready to do what it takes to get through to the semis and then beat Fed? We will just have to watch and see what happens.
Nativenewyorker , 8/28/10 5:16 AM
hahaha ?I didn't see the first set??
tennisnba , 8/28/10 5:48 AM
Im not going to look to far ahead,but if federer and djokovic play in the semis,it will be a cracker. However,the thing I have noticed is that whenever federer and djokovic play a BIG match,its usually the swiss comes out on top. For example,last year they played 5 times. Djokoivc had a 3-2 advantage. But Federer won the 2 biggest matches.(cincy final,and US Open semi) Even though the toronto match was only a masters series semi,it was still a big match as the number 2 rank was on the line. And you guessed it,federer upped the anti in the biggest moments of the match,and snagged the win.(the AO SF was the exception,not the rule as Fed had mono at the time) If the two men square off this year, I expect something similar to happen. And on top of that,Djokovic hasnt beaten a SINGE top 10 player all year.(no,this isnt a misprint) Thats why I dont even expect him to make the semis. That being said,if Djokovic does beat Federer this year,I expect him to win the title-regardless of who he plays in the final.
tj600 , 8/28/10 5:51 AM
Game of Roger and Novak
in Fair
The 1 set
The Roger's play is great.
Novak is not good.
The 2 set
The Roger's play falls.
Novak comes back.
tennisnba , 8/28/10 5:52 AM
Game of Roger and Novak
in Fair
The 1 set. The Roger's play is great. Novak is not good.
The 2 set. The Roger's play falls. Novak comes back. A wonderful shot continues.
The 3 set. Both good play. Or, Both plays not good. The flow of the game is unstable.
Roger win. End
I love Novak and AndyR. Game of AndyR and Novak (in cinci)
Andy won straight. Novak is a possibility of defeated at Andy. (us)
SF. Andy vs Roger or Robin vs Andy or Roger vs Novak or Robin vs Novak
I am not convinced of the Roger's victory.
I worry about Roger
I wish, Roger will win the sixsh us open champion
tennisnba , 8/28/10 5:59 AM
@natashao
"I think this time if Nole meets Fed in the semi, Nole will beat Fed.">>>> possible but highly unlikely.
Novak will chock at all the big moements as usual
atul1985 , 8/28/10 6:14 AM
It depends on which Nole turns up to play. The fact that Nole, still not at his best, could run Fed close at Toronto, shown us what Nole will be capable of once he fixed his problems-mainly his serve. Why question his fighting spirit and said that he choked? I don't think he choked and lost to Fed, players do make mistakes at crucial moments, and if that is considered choking then not only Nole but all others choke too!
I like the way he fought back after losing the first set. I even venture to say that when Nole is at the top of his game, his hard court game is the best, even better than Fed now(of course may not be better than Fed when Fed was TMF). A Nole at his best vs the present Fed, Nole wins. If he is at the top of his game and beats Fed in the semi, and carries on playing that way, then yes he'll beat whoever there in the final - be it Murray, Rafa, Nalby or Berdych. Of course the question is can he be at his best and can he sustain it throughout the whole tournament.
luckystar , 8/28/10 6:32 AM
luckystar-nole was at his best for some parts of the match,but not for the whole match. Federer wasnt at his best for the entire match either.
tj600 , 8/28/10 6:37 AM
Hello tj, I guess 'at his best' is rather subjective. From what I saw from the match, Nole wasn't at his best either, and he certainly had some gears to move up to but wasn't able to do so then.
luckystar , 8/28/10 7:19 AM
' Thiemo De Bakker ? De Bakker?s case is similar to that of Gasquet: tough early-round draw, pretty open after that, and he is coming off a solid showing. The 21-year-old Dutchman could face Fernando Gonzalez in round two and Robin Soderling in round three, but nobody is particularly daunting until Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. De Bakker is 24-17 for his 2010 campaign and reached the New Have semis this week before falling to Sergiy Stakhovsky.'
This is the one I like..............Sod or Gonzo not particularly daunting for De Bakker, but had these two been in Rafa's qtr, they would be LOOMING on the horizon.......only Federer is a threat to him.
It just makes me laugh, that the World No 1 is ALWAYS threatened by any Tom, Dick or Harry, but No 53 De Bakker whose career title/finalist sheet is zilch is not daunted by the players who would frighten the pants off Rafa.
Priceless!
VAMOS RAFA!
nadline , 8/28/10 8:43 AM
Why, I ask myself, is Berdych a contender to win the USO when in the last two years he has made the 1R and 3R, went out in the Qtrs in Toronto and R16 in Canada, and Rafa who has made the SF two years in a row, reached the SF in Toronto and the Qtrs in Cincy isn?t. Even Murray has only reached the SF once at the USO, the year he made the final, but he is joint favourite with Federer.
5. Tomas Berdych ? Berdych has never done much at the U.S. Open, but?then again?he had never done much at any slam prior to this season. Now the Czech is a different player and he is coming off a semifinal at the French and final at Wimbledon. Berdych faces a tough opener against Michael Llodra, but his only other threat in that eighth of the draw is Isner. If Isner pulls out or is not 100 percent, Berdych should coast into the quarters. And don?t discount him as a contender to win the whole thing.
US Open - 2008 - 1R; 2009 - 3R
2010 - Toronto ? Qtr; Cincy R16
Verdict: And don?t discount him as a contender to win the whole thing.
Conclusion - Berdych?s glass is half full.
4. Rafael Nadal ? Nadal has already won two slams this season and his lead atop the ATP rankings is massive, but he remains an unproven commodity on fast hard courts (especially at the U.S. Open). The Spaniard reached the semifinals last year but got two, two, and two-ed by Del Potro. Nadal?s recent hard-court results (loss to Murray in the Toronto semis, loss to Baghdatis in the Cincy quarters), suggest that things might not be so different this time around in New York.
US Open 2008 - SF; 2009 - SF
2010 ? Toronto - SF; Cincy Qtr
Verdict: (loss to Murray in the Toronto semis, loss to Baghdatis in the Cincy quarters), suggest that things might not be so different this time around in New York.
Conclusion - Rafa?s glass ? half empty!
Ricky, so if Berdych had never been a serious contender at slams until this season, why is he a serious contender over an 8 time GS champion, plus the Olympic Gold medalist. You say that Rafa is an unproven commodity on fast hard courts, is Berdych a proven commodity?
Since 2005 when Murray first played the USO, he has a 75% success rate, the same as Rafa, Djokovic has a much better record than both of them, but you don't rate him as a contender for the title. Before anyone says past record is not important, it Rafa's past record plus his showing on fast h/c that Ricky is citing to put Rafa down, even though it is not that much worse than 98% of the top 100.......barring only Djokovic and Federer. Delpo has won the USO once, one swallow does not make a summer.
Murray: US Open 2R 4R 3R F 4R 0 / 5 15?5 75.00
Nadal: US Open 3R QF 4R SF SF 0/7 21?7 75.00
Djoko: US Open 3R 3R F SF SF 0 / 5 20?5 80.00
nadline , 8/28/10 9:45 AM
Ricky, I don't expect you to come back on any of the above, because whenever I make a valid point you go silent.
VAMOS RAFA!
nadline , 8/28/10 10:17 AM
"so if Berdych had never been a serious contender at slams until this season, why is he a serious contender over an 8 time GS champion, plus the Olympic Gold medalist."
he isn't
Berdych is 5th. Nadal is 4th.
RickyDimon , 8/28/10 5:45 PM
Ricky, you say that because of Rafa's results in Canada and Cincy, things might not be different at the USO, but you say that 'Berdych should coast into the quarters. And don?t discount him as a contender to win the whole thing.'
You may have put Rafa at 4 and Berdy at 5, but the write-up definitely looks like Rafa has no chance and Berdy has a very good chance of winning the title.
I am by no means saying that Rafa is the favourite, but you generally don't give him any credit whatsoever, since he lost to Sod at RG in 2009. I would have thought he had done enough to redeem himself since then, but it appears that you are always hedging your bets against him. You even give De Bakker more credence against Sod and Gonzo than you would Rafa, I just find that amazing.
Not that the predictions mean a whole lot, they are just predictions, but they should be based on hard facts, as you are trying to justify your picks. I would be happy if you made your picks because of gut feelings, but to appear to justify them by ignoring the facts, just looks strange.
Rafa has made the SF twice in a row, Murray only once, the year he made the final, aside from that he has never even made the qtrs. They both have a 75% winning rate at the USO, Djokovic has an 80% winning rate, with two SF and one F, so what makes Murray so much more a favourite?
nadline , 8/28/10 6:35 PM
nadline - you only see what you want to see. Obviously none of your claims are actually true. You want people to hate on Nadal so that you can have something to challenge, so thus you are skewing the text to conform to your needs.
Part 3 of the preview: Federer/Nadal breakdown - http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20100828/2010_U.S._Open_ preview:_Nadal_and_Federer_breakdown
RickyDimon , 8/28/10 7:34 PM
No Ricky, I always back up what I say by the facts, you can't dispute that. If Rafa had only won Toronto this year, and only made the quarters in Miami, I/W and Cincy, you wouldn't be making him 2nd favourite to win the USO, over someone who has won two GS, 3 Masters, made the SF in 3 h/c Masters and 1 h/c qtr.
nadline , 8/28/10 8:40 PM
nadline - none of what you say is or can be backed up by facts
you said i have discounted Nadal since the 2009 French Open....um, check back on my 2010 French Open picks
what does Berdych coasting into the quarters have anything to do with Rafa?
and "Rafa has made the SF twice in a row, Murray only once, the year he made the final, aside from that he has never even made the qtrs. "
what does that have to do with anything? Murray has made a US Open FINAL, Nadal has never come close to reaching a final. Plus you cant base your ENTIRE claims on just past history. Gotta take some recent results into account.
RickyDimon , 8/28/10 10:46 PM
If making the SF twice in a row is not coming close to reaching the final, I don't know what is. Talking about recent results, Murray lost in the Qtrs at Cincy, so did Rafa. So what if Rafa lost to Murray in straight sets in Toronto, Rafa beat Murray in their last GS in straight sets, that should count, shouldn't it, even if it was on a different surface.
I'm not saying that Rafa is the favourite at the USO or that Murray may or may not beat him, but I just think that people tend to exagerate Rafa's failures and blow up out of all proportions other people's achievements.
I just like an even playing field when it comes to assessing players, not bias.
nadline , 8/29/10 11:01 AM
By the way, if we look back there are extenuating circumstances why Rafa lost in the last 2 SF at the USO, and Ferrer also actually acknowledged that Rafa was injured when he beat him there a few years ago.
nadline , 8/29/10 11:32 AM
what does that have to do with anything? Murray has made a US Open FINAL, Nadal has never come close to reaching a final. Plus you cant base your ENTIRE claims on just past history. Gotta take some recent results into account.
RickyDimon , 8/28/10 10:46 PM
This is inconsistent with you predicting Murray to reach the final at Wimbledon over Nadal, when Murray had never reached the final, and Rafa had actually won it, and Murray had not won anything all year up to that point, whilst Rafa had a bag full of titles. You can't even say it's because Murray beat Rafa to reach the AO final, because that was on hard, and you so often try to differentiate between surfaces.
I actually think that the nuances between courts are exagerated. As Rafa said when asked why Murray had not been successful on clay, - Murray will be successful on clay, because he is a good player, it doesn't matter what surface it is, if you are a good player, you are a good player. And he should know.
nadline , 8/29/10 11:42 AM
nadline: not quite true, it's very much about movement on the surfaces. I've noticed Andy does not move as well on the clay, he comes to the ball at slightly the wrong time and this makes his shots slighly off time. Whereas, I think Rafa's movement on clay is what has set him so far above the others.
deuce , 8/29/10 12:31 PM
deuce, that may be a disadvantage to Murray, but it could also be all in the mind, because he thinks he can't move well on clay so he doesn't.
This is Rafa's own take on his chances at the USO, nothing to do with the speed of the court:
Rafa: "I?ve been playing better these last few years, but it?s still difficult for me to play on Centre Court. It?s one of the windiest places from all the tournaments I?ve played.?
VAMOS!
nadline , 8/29/10 12:44 PM
Nadline, I don't understand you complains, it's only prediction of TOP 25 players & your favourite Rafa can make scrap of paper from it . Berdych is after his best year ever and best results on slams on 5th place and Rafa is before his worst slam ever on 4th place. That's difference between those two players. And comment "don?t discount Berdych as a contender to win the whole thing" is bacis true. Berdych big fan could say after French semi and Wimbledon final there could be victory on US slam only continuing of his progress and he also already beat on slams this year Murray, Djokovic and Federer so now is time for beating Nadal also. :) That's why have Ricky possitive comments on Berdych to explain why is world number 7 on 5th place and that's why have "neggative" comments on Nadal to explain why number 1. is on 4th place. Still is Nadal much more favourite than Berdych because he knows how to win slam.
Me personally would made TOP contenders 1. Federer 2. Murray 3. Nadal and 4.-6. place will be shared by Berdych, Roddick and Djokovic I can't tell who is bigger favourite from them.
molok , 8/29/10 1:48 PM
Anyway TOP Slam contenders from over the semifinal battles this year below:
1. Nadal 2 win
2. Federer 1 win
3.-4. Berdych and Murray 1 final 1 semi
5. Soderling 1 final
6.-9. Tsonga, Cilic, Djokovic, Melzer 1 semi
molok , 8/29/10 2:08 PM
I agree that everyone is entitled to their opinion, but selective facts should not be skewered to justify them, that's all I'm saying.
I am a massive Nadal fan, and even I don't think he is the favourite, but I wouldn't put Murray above him, based on the reasons Ricky gave. I would actually put Djokovic above Nadal and Murray, inspite of the fact that Djokovic has not done so well lately, but he has had problems with the heat, and when he is playing 100%, he can give a lot of players a run for their money at the USO.
VAMOS!
nadline , 8/29/10 2:13 PM
Ok I am going out on a limb to predict the semi finalist and the finalists.
Semi Finalist
Rafa v's Berdych
Soderling v's Roddick
Final
Rafa v's Roddick
Winner Rafa.
Ok...so I am sounding nuts right....leaving out the Mighty Fed and Murray and that is a fair call, but here is why I've predicted what I've predicted.
Consistency will win this years US Open and it only takes one match of poor play against an opponent who is playing well to lose, we saw this recently when Rafa played Baghdatis. You can say that this applies to all tournament and it does but I
I see both Federer and Murray falling pray to this in their quarter finals (if Murray gets there). Unfortunately for both, Soderling and Berdych will just be having an on day and when they are on and you are off, its a hard task indeed to get anything out of the match.
Now why Roddick over Soderling, well because I think this one will go to a 5 setter and Roddick through pure will, will win.
Thats how I see it folks. I may be wrong, which is likely as I am not God, so lets just wait and see but either we will have a new champion, who ever it is!
Oh and I am not playing favourites as Djokovic is my second favourite player and I cant see him in the mix at all, although I so do wish it. So what I am saying, my prediction is based on instinct rather than what I want.
isabeau77 , 8/29/10 2:14 PM
Rafa is wearing his lucky watch again, so watch out folks.
I actually think Djokovic will make it to the final, because he has the best record at the USO aside from Federer, and Federer has not been convincing lately. OK maybe Djokovic has had a few hiccups himself, but he did have breathing problems in the heat.
On the other hand, Federer has a cake walk up to the SF, so Djokovic will have to beat him to get to the final, but that's not impossible.
It would be great to have a FEDAL final and for Rafa to prevail at the USO, to have a clean sweep of beating Federer in all the slam finals.
VAMOS RAFA!
nadline , 8/29/10 2:26 PM
I can't put Djokovic into biggest favourite group of this competition basically because he has such a difficult draw He will be from 4th round facing probbaly Baghdatis/Fish, Roddick, Federer, Nadal/Murray in final.
molok , 8/29/10 2:28 PM
nadline: there's a hole in that one becos Rafa beat Andy on the windiest day ever at IW, I think. He actually coped with the conditions far better than Andy. He is a more consistent player, whatever the conditions and that sure helps :)
deuce , 8/29/10 2:28 PM
Deuce-
You are right, the score was something like 6/2 6/3 or something like that.
Dont get me wrong guys I would love to see Rafa v's Roger, but I cant see it happening and I dont think it will ever happen at the US Open.
Rafa will win the US Open one day but I dont think it will be against Roger.
As for Djokovic, the reason I picked Roddick over him is purely because of the home crowd support that Roddick will receive, which will fuel him.
isabeau77 , 8/29/10 2:37 PM
I will favor Nole over Rafa/Murray too at the USO. It seemed that no matter how well or how badly Nole played in the warm up tournaments, he seemed to find a way to make it to at least the semifinal of the USO.
If we analyze how he fared during the NA hard court swing right through the USO from 2007-2009, we would notice that in 2007, he won Montreal, lost early in Cincy but he reached the final of the USO and met Fed there. In 2008, he reached the QF of Toronto (lost to Murray) and the Final of Cincy (lost to Murray again) but he reached the semi of USO and lost to Fed. 2009 was a repeat of 2008 (exactly) with QF at Montreal (lost to Roddick), Final at Cincy (lost to Fed) and semi of USO and lost to Fed again. We can see that once Nole was in the other half of the draw away from Fed, he reached the final of USO (2007). Once he fell into Fed's half of the draw, he lost to Fed (2008-2009). So Nole was effectively the second best player at the USO from 2007-2009, just after Fed. He was unfortunate to meet Fed for three consecutive years and lost to Fed.
Murray made the final of the USO in 2008 but only the fourth round in 2009; Rafa made the semi in 2008-2009 but the fourth round in 2007. Delpo, though won the USO in 2009, had reached only the QF in 2008. Had Nole met Rafa in the semi of USO 2008; or Delpo at the QF of USO 2009, who knows what could have happened.
I believe Nole is a better fast hard court player than Rafa and Murray. Nole had beaten Delpo each time they played, though they had not met after Delpo became the reigning USO champion. I would like to see a Nole vs a healthy and fit Delpo match on the hard courts (both slow and fast) to see how they fare against each other. Nole is the only top four player that Delpo has not beaten (Delpo did beat Murray on clay at Madrid 09).
luckystar , 8/29/10 3:17 PM
I see it this way: favorites....in order: Fed, Fish, Roddick, Nalbadian, Murray. SD
scoot , 8/29/10 3:46 PM
Makes sense that #1 plays in same quarter as #8, but why isn't #2 in the same quarter as #7, then #3 with #6 and then #4 with #5. The way it is now set up #2 would play #5 in the bottom quarter - i.e. Federer vs. Soderling not Fed vs. #7 Berdych. The quarter with Murray #4 gets to play #7. Hence #4 gets an easier draw than #2 Fed. Seems like a bit of an unfair advantage for the #1 seated player.
Mike , 8/29/10 9:35 PM
the draw does not distinguish between 5-8
the pods are 1, 2, 3-4, 5-8, 9-11, 12-16, 17-24, and 25-32
RickyDimon , 8/29/10 9:39 PM
here it is, full tournament predictions: http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20100829/2010_U.S._Open_ picks:_Murray_over_Federer
RickyDimon , 8/29/10 9:59 PM
The order of play is out, Federer's half plays first tomorrow, starting at 7pm NY time.
nadline , 8/29/10 10:04 PM
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Hey Ricky,You keep predicting Federer to win!
Either you are a diehard Federer fan in denial or a pragmatic journalist who knows that predicting a Federer win will get you the most 'reads'
vij , 8/27/10 11:29 PM