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2010-08-26 21:01:30
This is the first of Ricky's five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
Part 1: Draw analysis
Part 2: Top 25 contenders
Part 3: Nadal and Federer breakdown
Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
Part 5: Full tournament predictions
Rafael Nadal won’t have to play Juan Martin Del Potro in this year’s U.S. Open semifinals, as Del Potro is out with his wrist injury. But Nadal still didn’t get much luck in the top half of the draw as the No. 1 seed. The top-ranked Spaniard would face an in-form Andy Murray if both players reach the semis.
In the bottom half of the bracket, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are on a collision course for a rematch of their 2009 semifinal clash. However, both Marcos Baghdatis and Mardy Fish are in Djokovic’s section, while Robin Soderling looms large in Federer’s quarter.
Nadal’s Quarter
While the draw did Nadal no favors by placing Murray in his half, he should have little trouble reaching at least the quarterfinals. Nadal’s nearest seed is No. 29 Philipp Kohlschreiber, who gave Nadal a stern test in Toronto but pulled out of Cincinnati with a shoulder injury. Potential fourth-round opponents for Nadal include Ivan Ljubicic and Feliciano Lopez, neither of whom are in good form.
Lurking in the other half of this section, though, is none other than David Nalbandian. The veteran Argentine captured one of the last seeded spots thanks to an outstanding summer and he has to be considered the favorite to meet Nadal in the quarterfinals. Nalbandian’s nearest Top 8 seed is an out-of-form Fernando Verdasco, so this presents an opportunity for Nalbandian, David Ferrer, or Ernests Gulbis.
Best First-Round Matchup — (10) David Ferrer vs. Alexadr Dolgopolov.
Ferrer and Dolgopolov recently faced each other in the Cincinnati first round, with Ferrer just barely prevailing 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. A similarly entertaining showdown should be on the menu in New York. Ferrer was the second best player behind Nadal during the clay-court swing and Dolgopolov has been one of 2010’s breakout stars on the ATP Tour. The 21-year-old Ukrainian has an edge on fast hard courts, but a best-of-five match should give Ferrer an advantage.
No. 24 seed Ernests Gulbis vs. Jeremy Chardy is the other first-round match to watch in this section. Gulbis is 2-0 lifetime against Chardy and both were straight-set victories, but simply based on talent alone, the Frenchman is one of the more dangerous unseeded players in this draw.
Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (29) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Gilles Simon
Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (8) Fernando Verdasco vs. (31) David Nalbandian
What to Watch For — Nalbandian and Gulbis (especially Nalbandian) are the only two players in this quarter who have both the talent and the current form to beat Nadal. The Spaniard should cruise into the quarterfinals and if either Nalbandian or Gulbis lose early, you can go ahead and pencil him into the semis. But if Nalbandian and Gulbis look good early (for example, if Nalbandian gets past Verdasco), things could get interesting.
Murray’s Quarter
This could be Murray’s best chance—to date—of winning a Grand Slam and he won’t be disappointed with the draw he was handed on Thursday. Aside from Murray and Tomas Berdych (which, of course, would be an extremely difficult quarterfinal clash), this section of the draw is unquestionably soft. John Isner is dangerous, especially on U.S. hard courts, but he might not even play in this tournament due to a sprained ankle. Stanislas Wawrinka would normally be a tough ask for Murray in the third round, but the Swiss is at his best on clay and has not been on top of his game this year.
Murray’s first real test could come in the form of Sam Querrey in the fourth round. Querrey has never met expectations at Grand Slams, but he consistently racks up titles at smaller events. In fact, the 6’6’’ American upset Murray earlier this summer in the Los Angeles final. However, that was the world No. 4’s first tournament since Wimbledon and he is in much better form now.
Best First-Round Matchup — (28) Radek Stepanek vs. Julien Benneteau
Stepanek basically disappeared this season due to fatigue and perhaps as a result of getting married to Nicole Vaidisova. The 31-year-old Czech, however, turned up this month and he currently finds himself in the New Haven quarterfinals. Benneteau often fares well on the U.S. hard courts and this season is no different. The Frenchman beat Wawrinka and Michael Llodra in Cincinnati before losing to Nadal in three sets (Benneteau held a match point in the second set).
Other intriguing first-round matchups include Berdych vs. Llodra and Mikhail Youzhny vs. Andrey Golubev. Llodra will be desperately hoping that Isner withdraws so he can pick up a No. 33 seed and play Frederico Gil instead of Berdych. Golubev kicked off his summer with a stunning 500-point title in Hamburg and that was almost enough for him to get seeded at the U.S. Open.
Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (12) Mikhail Youzhny vs. Xavier Malisse
Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (7) Tomas Berdych vs. (28) Radek Stepanek
What to Watch For — Will the talent in this section of the draw live up to its potential? Stepanek will be a threat if he shakes off all of his rust in New Haven, Isner will be a major factor if his ankle somehow heals in the next four days, and Wawrinka could turn out to be dangerous if he builds some confidence in rounds one and two. If none of those events come to fruition, Murray and Berdych will coast into the quarterfinals. But those top two guys better be ready, because the talent is there to cause problems.
Djokovic’s Quarter
Djokovic drew the most favorable 5-8 seed in Nikolay Davydenko, but that’s just about where the good news ends for the world No. 3. This section also includes Baghdatis, Fish, and Andy Roddick. Baghdatis and Fish, two of the hottest players in the sport right now, are likely to face each other in a brutal third-round showdown. If Djokovic reaches the fourth round, he would get the winner.
The Serb, however, faces a tough opening-rounder against friend and countryman Viktor Troicki. Troicki has not done much this season and that’s why he is unseeded, but he is currently in the New Haven quarterfinals. Like Djokovic, Baghdatis, and Fish, Roddick and Davydenko could also be headed for some early difficulty. Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic would meet in the second round while Davydenko faces a potential second-round clash against Richard Gasquet.
Best First-Round Matchup — (3) Novak Djokovic vs. Viktor Troicki
Federer gets to play someone named Brian Dabul in the first round and Djokovic has to play Troicki? The No. 3 seed must be cursing the draw right about now. Sure, there is almost no way Djokovic is going to lose this one, but he would like to have an easier time of things in his opener. Troicki beat his favored compatriot three years ago in their first-ever encounter, but Djokovic has taken the past four meetings (including 6-3, 7-5 last week in Cincinnati).
The remainder of the first round in this quarter does not look too enticing, but Michael Russell could give Davydenko a test and Arnaud Clement is always tricky, even for Baghdatis (who might be tiring himself out in New Haven).
Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (6) Nikolay Davydenko vs. Richard Gasquet
Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (16) Marcos Baghdatis vs. (19) Mardy Fish
What to Watch For — This is by far the most interesting section of the draw, at least in terms of how wide open it is. Five players have a very realistic chance of advancing to the semifinals (Djokovic, Davydenko, Roddick, Baghdatis, and Fish). Davydenko is the longest shot of those five, but anything is possible if he can get past Gasquet in round two and eventually find himself in the second week. Djokovic and Roddick are the obvious favorites on paper, but Baghdatis and Fish are sleepers to win the whole thing. From top to bottom, this is going to be a fun quarter to watch.
Federer’s Quarter
Federer has seen this draw before: Lleyton Hewitt in the third round and Soderling in the quarterfinals. The world No. 2 handled both of them at last year’s U.S. Open, although his winning streaks against both players ended earlier this season (to Soderling at the French Open and to Hewitt in Halle). This is not the easiest possible path for Federer en route to the semifinals, but it’s one he should handle with relative ease.
Hewitt and Soderling, meanwhile, will not be looking ahead. The veteran Aussie has to go up against Paul-Henri Mathieu in the first round and Soderling is on a collision course for the third round with Fernando Gonzalez. Once a Top 10 player, Gonzalez is the No. 27 seed because of inactivity (knee tendinitis), but he can be major trouble for Soderling if he already has two best-of-five matches under his belt. The rest of the section is particularly soft, as Jurgen Melzer, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Marin Cilic, and Albert Montanes have good chances for fourth-round showings despite having not played great tennis this summer.
Best First-Round Matchup — (11) Marin Cilic vs. Illya Marchenko
Cilic stunned Murray last year at Flushing Meadows to reach the quarterfinals, but he has been in dismal form this summer. The 6’6’’ Croat lost in the first round of Wimbledon, Toronto, and Cincinnati, briefly picking up the pace to reach the Washington semis (only to get blown out by Nalbandian). Marchenko, on the other hand, has earned 15 of his 21 career ATP match victories this season. The 22-year-old Ukrainian scored a pair of wins this week in New Haven, so—based on current form—an upset here is not out of the question.
Hewitt-Mathieu and Melzer vs. Dmitry Tursunov are also good-looking matchups on paper. Both Mathieu and Tursunov, however, have been plagued by injuries over the past two seasons. If they can suddenly get it together in New York, these will be two of the best matches of the entire first round…. But that is a huge “if.”
Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (27) Fernando Gonzalez vs. Thiemo De Bakker
Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (13) Jurgen Melzer vs. (22) Juan Carlos Ferrero
What to Watch For — Upsets. Aside from Federer, the other seven seeds in this quarter are particularly vulnerable. Gonzalez, Ferrero, and Hewitt are rusty, Cilic is slumping, Montanes has never done anything on hard courts, Melzer has never made it past the third round of the U.S. Open, and Soderling disappointed in both Toronto and Cincinnati. We could see a few unseeded surprises (like De Bakker) in the fourth round or quarterfinals. But with Federer in this quarter, you can bet we won’t see a surprise semifinalist.
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Murray has the easiest draw
RickyDimon , 8/27/10 5:25 AM
Is it true? it is good. I want to win to Murray,
tennisnba , 8/27/10 5:42 AM
Murray has often been lucky with slam draws - that's not the reason this year is his best shot to win the USO. I think it's his form peaking at the right time, and the fact that he's a grown up now.
stu , 8/27/10 5:45 AM
Either Nadal or Federer will again beat Murray in the this Grand slam.
atul1985 , 8/27/10 6:33 AM
Federer - Berdych in the final
bjawad , 8/27/10 10:46 AM
Nole - Rafa in the final!
luckystar , 8/27/10 12:15 PM
RAFA - Soderling Final
sabs , 8/27/10 12:19 PM
I think everyone remember what happened when FEd lost in the Wimby 2008 to nadal , next year nadal missed the event and Fed went on to win the wimby 2009 and the finalist was the same guy who lost to Fed in the finals before nadal cracked to wimby Final..
So this year in UO it could be the same Defending champion is out and the last guy whom Fed played in the UO final is murray, so just wait and see how seeds progress..
champ00289 , 8/27/10 12:57 PM
Sigh... after reading through Ricky's preview, cant help but feel that Fed has one of the easiest draw, with seeded players like Cilic, Gonzo slumping, Ferrero dealing with injuries, Montanes not exactly a good hard court player, and Hewitt will be rusty not doing much after the Wimbledon. The Sod got beaten early at Toronto and Cincy, so not sure about his form.
I agree that Nole has the toughest draw, with red hot Fish and Baggy, and a first round opponent of Troicki. Not sure about Roddick and Davy's form, but if both are on, could cause Nole some problems.
Rafa's first two rounds opponents are tricky, esp Gash in the first round. Rafa may face Istomin in the second round if they get past their first round opponents. Istomin has a big serve, but I think Rafa can safely get past the first few rounds. His QF opponent may be one of Verdasco/Ferrer/Nalby or Gulbis. Unless Verdasco turns red hot (like he did in AO 09), I don't see him troubling Rafa. The other three guys may present problems for Rafa, so Rafa's draw is not exactly easy, though I won't call it difficult as well.
I think other than Fed's, Murray's draw can be considered easy too. Almost all of those in his draw had been beaten by him. His toughest opponent should be Berdych. Berdych may cause an upset here if Murray is not careful and not in top form.
Should be an interesting USO, may be seeing the top four guys in the semis and that may be two well balanced semis so that no one is at a disadvantage come the final day.
luckystar , 8/27/10 1:05 PM
luckystar - how i wish we could see a rafa-nole final! its been ages since we saw them play together, and those matches never disappoint.
mriiidula , 8/27/10 2:16 PM
Yes mriiidula, those matches never disappoint, that's why I want to see Nole/Rafa final instead of semifinal, as they may kill each other in the semi and the other finalist waiting to meet one of them will stand to benefit.
I really hope that Nole can get to no.2 again so that he and Rafa will be on the opposite half of the draw. If that happens then there is no worry about Nole landing in Rafa's half at the FO. Actually Nole can get back his no.2 if he reaches the final of USO, that means Fed can only reach the semi, a swing of 960 points will get Nole back to no.2. However after that Nole has a lot of work to do to stay there as he has plenty of points to defend. I really want to see a Nole/Fed semifinal at the FO, it is due already, as Nole has been meeting Rafa at the FO semi for at least two occasions, and once in the QF but has never met Fed at the FO. In my opinion, Nole can be better than Fed on clay, at least during the 2008 clay season, and the first half of the 2009 clay season, before the FO. He was stopped by Rafa most of the time, I felt that Nole performed better than Fed during the FO 08, he might have beaten Fed had they met in the semi of the FO then.
Nole and Rafa have not met in the hard court slams, as most of the time they are on the opposite half of the draw.
luckystar , 8/27/10 2:40 PM
Nole is one of those players who can raise his game for the Slams. His track record since his break out year in 2007 has been pretty impressive. 1 win, 1 runner up, 5 Qfs and 6SFs. There were flashes of the old Nole at both Toronto and even Cincy (in spite of that melt down against Roddick) so I see no reason for him not to go the distance against all-comers this year.
ed251137 , 8/27/10 2:57 PM
"Yes mriiidula, those matches never disappoint, that's why I want to see Nole/Rafa final instead of semifinal, as they may kill each other in the semi and the other finalist waiting to meet one of them will stand to benefit. "
just like how fed won madrid last year. i'll never forget it.
mriiidula , 8/27/10 2:58 PM
[U.S. Open men's preview: Federer's road to redemption is bumpy]
Nadal gets as favorable a quarter as he'll ever see at an Open. On his side, he gets three seeded Spaniards (David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco), none of whom are built for the hard courts of New York. David Nalbandian, who started the month at No. 117 but is now No. 31 seed at the Open, lurks on the bottom half of the quadrant and could provide an interesting quarterfinal test for nadal.
On the other half of Nadal's side, Andy Murray must be breathing a huge sigh of relief that he doesn't see Mardy Fish anywhere near him on the bracket. (Fish has defeated Murray three times this year on hard courts.) Not that paths to the semis are ever clear in a Grand Slam, but Murray doesn't have too many potential roadblocks in his way.
The same can't be said on the other half of the draw for No. 6 seed Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian could potentially face Richard Gasquet in the second round and a recharged Andy Roddick in the fourth. If Marcos Baghdatis can still stand after playing 19 matches in the last 30 days, he could see Mardy Fish in a marquee third round tilt. Novak Djokovic rounds out the quarter.
Roger Federer's rout to the semifinals could go through Lleyton Hewitt (third round), Jurgen Melzer (fourth round) and Robin Soderling (quarterfinal). It would be the first Grand Slam semifinal for Federer since the Australian Open.
ttp://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/blog/busted_racquet/post/U-S-Op en-men-s-preview-Federer-s-road-to-redem?urn=ten-265402
tennisnba , 8/27/10 3:09 PM
[U.S. Open men's preview: Federer's road to redemption is bumpy]
Nadal gets as favorable a quarter as he'll ever see at an Open. On his side, he gets three seeded Spaniards (David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco), none of whom are built for the hard courts of New York. David Nalbandian, who started the month at No. 117 but is now No. 31 seed at the Open, lurks on the bottom half of the quadrant and could provide an interesting quarterfinal test for nadal.
On the other half of Nadal's side, Andy Murray must be breathing a huge sigh of relief that he doesn't see Mardy Fish anywhere near him on the bracket. (Fish has defeated Murray three times this year on hard courts.) Not that paths to the semis are ever clear in a Grand Slam, but Murray doesn't have too many potential roadblocks in his way.
The same can't be said on the other half of the draw for No. 6 seed Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian could potentially face Richard Gasquet in the second round and a recharged Andy Roddick in the fourth. If Marcos Baghdatis can still stand after playing 19 matches in the last 30 days, he could see Mardy Fish in a marquee third round tilt. Novak Djokovic rounds out the quarter.
Roger Federer's rout to the semifinals could go through Lleyton Hewitt (third round), Jurgen Melzer (fourth round) and Robin Soderling (quarterfinal). It would be the first Grand Slam semifinal for Federer since the Australian Open.
ttp://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/blog/busted_racquet/post/U-S-Op en-men-s-preview-Federer-s-road-to-redem?urn=ten-265402
tennisnba , 8/27/10 3:11 PM
[U.S. Open men's preview: Federer's road to redemption is bumpy]
Nadal gets as favorable a quarter as he'll ever see at an Open. On his side, he gets three seeded Spaniards (David Ferrer, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco), none of whom are built for the hard courts of New York. David Nalbandian, who started the month at No. 117 but is now No. 31 seed at the Open, lurks on the bottom half of the quadrant and could provide an interesting quarterfinal test for nadal.
On the other half of Nadal's side, Andy Murray must be breathing a huge sigh of relief that he doesn't see Mardy Fish anywhere near him on the bracket. (Fish has defeated Murray three times this year on hard courts.) Not that paths to the semis are ever clear in a Grand Slam, but Murray doesn't have too many potential roadblocks in his way.
The same can't be said on the other half of the draw for No. 6 seed Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian could potentially face Richard Gasquet in the second round and a recharged Andy Roddick in the fourth. If Marcos Baghdatis can still stand after playing 19 matches in the last 30 days, he could see Mardy Fish in a marquee third round tilt. Novak Djokovic rounds out the quarter.
Roger Federer's rout to the semifinals could go through Lleyton Hewitt (third round), Jurgen Melzer (fourth round) and Robin Soderling (quarterfinal). It would be the first Grand Slam semifinal for Federer since the Au open
tennisnba , 8/27/10 3:32 PM
Thanks for the great analysis, Ricky. I will look forward to the following episodes of your USO series, including the predictions. I like how you make sure to take into account past performance at the tournament as a booster of the chances of a player, while some people focus only on current form. The fact is that tournaments are so different because of so many factors, i.e. altitude, climate, atmosphere, surface, etc, etc. Each major is a world unto itself, and those who are known to do well at the USO, will have that in their favor. Given that, Roger is again the big favorite, IMO. Roddick should not be forgotten. Finally healthy, the former USO champ has been thwarted only by Roger in recent years. With Roger not being as dominant as he used to be, This could be the American's best shot to finally get his second Major.
grafight , 8/27/10 4:08 PM
Ricky, what about Gulbis?, I believe its the first time he has been seeded so high in the draw, and he´s got the talent to be a top ten. This year he has proven he´s taking tennis more seriously, dont you think he might i have a chance for a breaktrouhg?
mdmch , 8/27/10 5:03 PM
this time it will be federer defeating murray in the final
saxenanalin , 8/27/10 6:00 PM
Good work Ricky.
I wish we could watch some of the qualifying matches. I like to see what new up and comers are bringing to the court.
smr , 8/27/10 6:25 PM
Tomic lost, ATR must be sad
SGHIceman , 8/27/10 7:57 PM
SGHIceman: oh dammit, do you mean I've got to wait some more b4 seeing this tennis prodigy? :)
deuce , 8/27/10 9:35 PM
Yes he was robbed, huge conspiracy probably with scheduling and what not ^^
SGHIceman , 8/27/10 11:03 PM
2nd part (Top 25 contenders) - http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20100827/2010_U.S._Open_ preview:_Top_25_contenders
RickyDimon , 8/27/10 11:06 PM
Great analysis, Ricky, as always. djokers quarter will be VERY entertaining, and Fish-Bagman could be a lot of fun to watch. Totally agree that Nalbandian could be a mjor threat! SD
scoot , 8/28/10 1:10 PM
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
Approach Shots: Federer headlines Davis Cup first round
Mon 30/01 19:22
Approach Shots: The calm after the storm
Sat 28/01 15:11
Australian Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Wed 25/01 19:57
Australian Open '12 semifinal expert picks
Mon 23/01 19:02
Australian Open '12 quarterfinal expert picks
Sun 15/01 06:00
2012 Australian Open picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal again
Fri 13/01 04:40
Australian Open draw analysis: Nadal with Federer in bottom half
Sun 08/01 01:56
Approach Shots: Final preparations for Australian Open
Tue 03/01 02:19
2012 World Tour Finals predictions
Mon 02/01 15:08
Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer, Murray open 2012
Mon 05/12 21:20
2012 Davis Cup picks: Argentina for redemption
Fri 02/12 16:02
Approach Shots: Nadal leads Spain in Davis Cup final
Sat 19/11 23:43
World Tour Finals expert picks
Tue 15/11 19:59
Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer in same London group
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Nadal is the easiest draw.
Roger, third round. Hewitt.QF.Soderling.
Tough as such draw
Murray is the most tough draw.
Djoko..??
Severity of Murray's draw
Possibility that Murray doesn't win through. that it is large.
tennisnba , 8/27/10 5:01 AM