2010-08-22 23:55:29
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The U.S. Open is just eight days away, and that’s not hard to figure out looking at this week’s lineup. Most of the players are choosing to gear up for the season’s final major with rest, and perhaps only one Top 20 player will be in action at the Pilot Pen Tennis tournament. Cincinnati semifinalist Marcos Baghdatis is the No. 1 seed and reportedly going to play, but Mardy Fish (expected to be ranked 16th on Monday) made it all the way to the Cincy title match and has withdrawn. New Haven will also play host to the return of Fernando Gonzalez, who has been out since the French Open with knee tendinitis.
Pilot Pen Tennis
Where: New Haven, Connecticut
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $663,750
Points: 250
Top Seed: Marcos Baghdatis
Defending Champion: Fernando Verdasco (not playing)
Draw Analysis: The past two winners of this event are Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco; neither is back and it’s hard to imagine a champion of similar caliber prevailing this time around. New Haven simply cannot lure a strong field into the tournament with the U.S. Open immediately following on the schedule year in and year out.
This Pilot Pen event does boast some marquee names, but all come with question marks. Baghdatis has to be tired after Cincinnati and he surely can’t be motivated to play a lot of matches at a 250-point tournament just days before a Grand Slam. Gonzalez has been sidelined for three months and will almost certainly show signs of rust. James Blake (is he still a big name?) has been awful this season, but naturally got a wildcard into his hometown event.
All of this means the door is wide open for any number of contenders to take this title (the case will be similar at the U.S. Open next week, although not to the same extent). With Fish out of the top half of the draw and Baghdatis possibly worn out, opportunities are there for strong hard-court players like Thiemo De Bakker and Taylor Dent. No. 8 seed Florian Mayer has been playing well in 2010 and could benefit from Fish’s absence in the second quarter of the draw.
The second half of the bracket is totally up for grabs, as Gonzalez would be the heavy favorite among a host of unproven players if he had not missed the past three months. Viktor Troicki or an in-form Alexandr Dolgopolov (or even Blake) could take advantage in the third quarter of the draw, while Xavier Malisse is playing the best tennis of anyone in a soft final section.
Second-Round Upset Alert: (WC) Taylor Dent over (6) Tommy Robredo. Robredo has been in absolutely shocking form of late. All you need to know is that if you click on him at the ATP website, it defaults to his doubles statistics rather than singles. The Spaniard has lost in the first round of seven of his last nine events, including in Cincinnati to Michael Berrer.
Dent has struggled for consistency in 2010 after his incredible 2009 comeback from back surgery. The veteran American, however, is serving as big as ever and remains extremely dangerous on fast hard courts. He clobbered Feliciano Lopez in Cincinnati and gave Rafael Nadal a decent test. A similar surface in New Haven should actually make Dent the favorite in this one.
Hot: Marcos Baghdatis, Mardy Fish, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Xavier Malisse,
Cold: Fernando Gonzalez, Tommy Robredo, Igor Andreev, Evgeny Korolev, James Blake, Lukasz Kubot, Maximo Gonzalez, Horacio Zeballos, Marco Chiudinelli
Semifinal Predictions: Thiemo De Bakker over Taylor Dent and Xavier Malisse over Viktor Troicki
Final Prediction: Malisse over De Bakker
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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