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2010-07-26 20:04:31
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
This is it for the clay-court specialists—the last hurrah on the slow stuff for this 2010 ATP season. In Gstaad, familiar clay-courters like Nicolas Almagro, Albert Montanes, and defending champion Thomaz Bellucci headline the draw. In Umag, the presence of several all-court players makes for a well-rounded field.
As the dirt season wraps up in Europe, the U.S. Open Series surges ahead in America. Mardy Fish has the early lead after winning the title in Atlanta, and he is back in action this week at the Farmers Classic in L.A.
Farmers Classic
Where: Los Angeles, California
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $619,500
Points: 250
Top Seed: Andy Murray
Defending Champion: Sam Querrey
Draw Analysis: Novak Djokovic entered this many months ago and has always been scheduled to be the No. 1 seed. He pulled out at the last second, but tournament organizers reloaded by giving Andy Murray a late wild card. Murray is the clear favorite to win in Los Angeles, but he is in a tough top half of the draw, where he could meet Ernests Gulbis in the quarterfinals and an on-fire Fish in the semis.
Defending champion Sam Querrey appears to have a friendlier path to the final in the bottom section of the bracket. Marcos Baghdatis and Janko Tipsarevic are the primary threats, but neither man has been in scorching form and Querrey could not face either one until the semis.
First-Round Upset Alert: Rainer Schuettler over (7) Horacio Zeballos. Schuettler is still going relatively strong at 34 years old and he usually does his best work on faster surfaces. Zeballos, who prefers clay, turned in a dismal performance against Taylor Dent last week in Atlanta. Schuettler went out in the Atlanta second round, but based on their respective showings last week, the German should pull off a minor upset.
Hot: Sam Querrey, Mardy Fish, Kevin Anderson
Cold: Karol Beck, Dudi Sela, James Blake,
Semifinal Predictions: Andy Murray over Xavier Malisse and Sam Querrey over Janko Tipsarevic
Final Prediction: Murray over Querrey
Allianz Suisse Open Gstaad
Where: Gstaad, Switzerland
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Mikhail Youzhny
Defending Champion: Thomaz Bellucci
Draw Analysis: A well-balanced Gstaad draw features Youzhny, Montanes, and Richard Gasquet in the top half; Bellucci and Almagro in the bottom half. The dangerous unseeded floaters are also spread out evenly; Hamburg champion Andrey Golubev is in the top section with Youzhny, Igor Andreev could face Bellucci in the second round (third quarter of the draw), and Jeremy Chardy could make life difficult for Alamgro and Paul-Henri Mathieu in the last section.
Youzhny has arguably the easiest path through the draw, as the only major clay-court threat in his quarter is Tommy Robredo, who has been in dismal form. Sure Golubev won Hamburg, but he has to be worn out and he also has a long way to go before proving that was not some kind of fluke. As for the toughest road, Bellucci could face—in order—Marco Chiudinelli, Andreev, Victor Hanescu, and Almagro prior to the final.
First-Round Upset Alert: Daniel Gimeno-Traver over (6) Victor Hanescu. Although his 6’6’’ frame does not suggest it, Hanescu is actually at his best on the slow stuff. Still, he is not a clay-court specialist like Gimeno-Traver. Current form also gives an edge to the Spaniard, as he reached the Stuttgart semifinals earlier this month and upset Nikolay Davydenko in the process. Hanescu, meanwhile, lost his opening matches in both Stuttgart and Hamburg.
Hot: Nicolas Almagro, Albert Montanes, Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Andrey Golubev, Daniel Brands
Cold: Tommy Robredo, Andreas Beck, Igor Andreev, Marco Chiudinelli
Semifinal Predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Thomaz Bellucci and Albert Montanes over Mikhail Youzhny
Final Prediction: Almagro over Montanes
Studena Croatia Open
Where: Umag, Croatia
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
Defending Champion: Nikolay Davydenko
Draw Analysis: Of the three tournaments this week, Umag is the most wide open. The top seeds are far from imposing at the moment, as Nikolay Davydenko, Ivan Ljubicic, and Juan Carlos Ferrero are not in the kind of form that was on display earlier this season. No. 2 Jurgen Melzer is playing the best tennis of his life, but he is coming off a long week in Hamburg where he finished runner-up.
The door could be open for a number of remaining challengers, including clay-court specialists Juan Ignacio Chela, Fabio Fognini, Filippo Volandri, and Potito Starace. Of the top four seeds, Ferrero probably has the best draw; the bottom half of the draw does not seem to challenging aside from Melzer, whom Ferrero would not meet until the semis.
First-Round Upset Alert: Potito Starace over (7) Sergiy Stakhovsky. This one is all about the surface, as Stakhovsky would have a major advantage on a hard court. On clay, however, it should be a different story. Starace is coming off a third-round showing in Hamburg and he reached the final of a clay-court Challenger event earlier this month. Stakhovsky may be the seeded player, but Starace should really be considered the favorite.
Hot: Jurgen Melzer, Alexandr Dolgopolov
Cold: Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, Maximo Gonzalez
Semifinal Predictions: Juan Carlos Ferrero over Jurgen Melzer and Juan Ignacio Chela over Ivan Ljubicic
Final Prediction: Ferrero over Chela
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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he is now
didnt pick him to go far, anyway
RickyDimon , 7/28/10 2:12 AM
well done Ricky Dimon you got all three first-round upsets right. zeballos was totally dismantled by schüttler. let's see how murray will be doing, should be difficult to judge where his form is.
croc , 7/28/10 12:47 PM
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Isn't Fish out this week?
SGHIceman , 7/27/10 11:56 PM