Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Back to the clay

  2010-07-11 15:57:55
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  The grass court season is over and the U.S. Open Series is one week away, which means it’s time for one more week of clay and clay only. A pair of tournaments in Bastad, Sweden and Stuttgart, Germany are on the schedule and even though this might seem like brief down time in tennis, a host of top players are in action.
  
  Three Top 10 players will be featured—Robin Soderling and Fernando Verdasco in Bastad, Nikolay Davydenko in Stuttgart. Soderling and Verdasco will be challenged by Top 20 players David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro, while Davydenko has company in the form of Gael Monfils, Jurgen Melzer, and Juan Carlos Ferrero.

   

  SkiStar Swedish Open

   

  Where: Bastad, Sweden
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Robin Soderling
  Defending Champion: Robin Soderling

   

  Draw Analysis: Soderling treated his home fans to a title last year and he should have a great chance of doing it again—especially with a home-court advantage in Sweden. The draw also did him some favors (in addition to a first-round bye), placing the No. 1 seed in a relatively soft quarter in which the other seeded player is No. 8 Florent Serra. Soderling, though, would likely face Ferrer in a blockbuster semifinal showdown.
  
  While Soderling and Ferrer should take care of business in the top half of the draw (as long as Ferrer can get past Fabio Fognini in round one), the second spot in the title match is completely up for grabs. Verdasco has been in questionable form ever since playing a ton of tennis during the main clay-court swing, and his vulnerability could open the door for Tommy Robredo.
  
  Almagro and Denis Istomin are the seeded players in a third section of the draw filled with qualifiers and wild cards. In that potential quarterfinal clash, Almagro would have the edge on clay, but Istomin has the edge in current form.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Potito Starace over (8) Florent Serra. Serra leads the head-to-head series at the ATP level 2-0 over Starace, but both matches went to three sets and they have not faced each other since 2008. Starace won a 2008 clay-court Challenger encounter in straight sets, and that result could be more telling. Serra has enjoyed some decent results on the slow stuff, but Starace is the essence of a clay-court specialist. The Italian is not in spectacular form, but the surface just might turn the tide in his favor.

   

  Hot: Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Denis Istomin, Fabio Fognini, Daniel Brands

   

  Cold: Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Robredo, Andreas Vinciguerra, Maximo Gonzalez

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Robin Soderling over David Ferrer and Tommy Robredo over Denis Istomin

   

  Final Prediction: Soderling over Robredo
  
  Mercedes Cup

   

  Where: Stuttgart, Germany
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
  Defending Champion: Jeremy Chardy

   

  Draw Analysis: We could have a first-time Stuttgart champion on our hands come Sunday, as none of the eight seeded players has ever won this tournament. Davydenko, Melzer, Monfils, and Ferrero appear to have the best chance having been granted free passes straight to the second round. In a field littered with clay-court talent, however, the title is wide open.
  
  Davydenko is likely to begin his quest against the defending champion, Jeremy Chardy. The top-seeded Russian is not in a difficult section of the draw, but Victor Hanescu is surprisingly adept on clay and could present problems in the quarterfinals. In the second quarter of the draw, Monfils and the winner of an all-German opener between Philipp Kohlschreiber and Florian are on a collision course for the quarterfinals.
  
  In terms of the depth, the bottom half of the bracket is far more loaded. Seeded players Melzer, Ferrero, Albert Montanes, and Gilles Simon are joined by Andreas Beck, Horacio Zeballos, Philipp Petzschner, Eduardo Schwank, Juan Ignacio Chela, and Sergiy Stakhovsky.
  
  Montanes probably has the toughest road of all. The fifth-seeded Spaniard begins against an in-form Philipp Petzschner, would next face a clay-court specialist in Chela or Schwank, and then could run into Melzer. Ferrero, meanwhile, will kick off his campaign with a difficult proposition against either Beck or Zeballos.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Florian Mayer over (6) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber has been in decent form, but he does not have a truly notable result to his credit since reaching the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals. He has also never been past the Stuttgart quarters in six previous appearances (4-6 lifetime record at this event).
  
  Despite playing a style of tennis that should be much more effective on clay courts, Mayer reached the Wimbledon third round. He retired against Yen-Hsun Lu with a right thigh injury, but the injury did not appear to be serious. If Mayer is 100 percent, he will have a good chance against his fellow German on the slow stuff.

   

  Hot: Jurgen Melzer, Philipp Petzschner, Sergiy Stakhovsky

   

  Cold: Nikolay Davydenko, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Gilles Simon, Jeremy Chardy, Marco Chiudinelli

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Gael Monfils over Victor Hanescu and Jurgen Melzer over Juan Carlos Ferrero

   

  Final Prediction: Melzer over Monfils

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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