Good analysis. Much appreciated.

good analysis Ricky, but I am really tired of this 'Spaniards rolling over for Nadal' thing. What?
They are just not as good as he is. Do all French Players 'roll over' for Nadal? All Serbs? etc.

smr - fair point, but

is Federer as good as Nadal is on clay? Not even close.

is Gulbis as good as Nadal is on clay? Not even in the same league?

is Almagro as good as Nadal? Comical.

Why can't Verdasco, Ferrer, Ferrero, and other Spaniards other than Almagro at least give him a MATCH? I know they can't win, but is a MATCH too much to ask?

Out of curiosity what are these certainties of life besides death and taxes?

lol i meant three of course. Good catch.

actually, I meant four

because the third is "Tommy Robredo losing to Andy Roddick"

Ricky they do tend to do better on hard courts against Rafa.

smr - true. I will deal with that when the U.S. Open rolls around!

Has it ever occur to you that Spanish players play tennis that suits Rafa and Rafa happens to know them too damn well to come up with the right tactics and deal with them? They are the same school but Rafa is just BETTER! This argument of rolling over for Nadal is just ridiculous...if you want to use the same analogy, then most of the players do role over Federer for how great he is and they do not even put up the fight...it's Fed's fault though that he has recently let himself being beaten by some lower ranked players so everyone all of the sudden consider Gulbis, Mofils and Waw a major threat for Fed..It should also be clear to everyone by now that flat hitters do not match Rafa and he is having trouble beating them even on clay if he is not 100%...but this year Rafa is healthy and in form, ready to beat all of them...and you just can't blame Spaniards for being beaten by him, it is not their fault that he is so good...to be honest, I am not thrilled to see Sod in other half of the draw cause I wanted him to be slaughtered by Rafa to just put to rest all these stupid assumptions how he would be able to beat Rafa again...and honestly Ricky, do you really, really think (if they ended up in Rafa's draw) Gulbis, Monfils or Waw stood any chance against Rafa? Cmon you can do better than that...

of course they dont. But they would have given him a better match than Verdasco is going to give him.

Although, Verdasco is not going to play Nadal.

spaniards bend over for god nadal.
everyone bends over to that swiss ballerina.
i mean remember tommy haas last at the french, del potro and how could we forget the yoking robin sodertoad the ultimate fedtard.
the bending over for federer is so pathetic, they should lose the right to play tennis.

dolgopolov jr
lukas lacko(happiest player in the top 100...;) )
kubot
dev verman

any other dark horses in this tournament???

de bakker and giraldo....

It looks like Federer has got flat hitters in his draw and Nadal has got the more conventional claycourt specialists(Ferrer) and topspin variety(Verdasco). The funny thing is that both Federer and Nadal are comfortable playing against the types of players in their draw.

There are three versions of Federer.
Mark III who treats 250 and 500 tourneys as practice sessions.

Mark II that shows up for Masters but isn't too bothered whether he wins or loses (4 titles out of 30 appearances in last 4 years) as long as he protects his ranking - meanwhile raising the hopes of players who manage to beat him.

And then there is Mark I who rocks up for the Slams and repeatedly crushes those hopes.

No, I haven't forgotten '09 USO - but that was the exception not the rule. That leaves only Rafa who has been able to slow down the relentless tally of Slam titles on a regular basis.

I am also getting tired of the contiunal bashing of Spanish players because they do not beat Rafa on clay. Few do.

And JCF has beaten Rafa on clay.

And Ferrer- who you deride Ricky- does fight against Nadal on clay. I have watched them play on he surface for five years and Ferrer may not win- but he fights. He has never won against Federer on any surface but I don't see him bashed for that. Only because he does not beat Rafa on clay and he is *shudder* a Spaniard.

This continual slagging and deriding of the Spanish players is I think very unfair.

ed,

"That leaves only Rafa who has been able to slow down the relentless tally of Slam titles on a regular basis".
ed251137 , 5/22/10 9:48 AM

not in respect of hard courts USO (in particular), rafa hasn't made it past the SF, so has been no thread to roger's dominance in terms of this slam. If he reached a final, then perhaps, but so far, that hasn't happened.

http://goo.gl/m4pw

gulbis has the best sense of humour!!

meant to say no *threat* ed.

R.F appears to have less hunger than before, since may be, he doesn't have to prove to himself that he is the best player. And against Rafa he appears to have resigned to a feeling that Rafa was born to be his nemesis. Otherwise, why he has not been trying things he is otherwise good at. One such thing is coming more often to the net to curtail the rallies against Rafa, win or lose. This is what Andy did in the Oz this year to Rafa, especially on his own serves. R.F can not win against Rafa from the back of the court.

RF did try to attack the net at madrid...but failed miserably...some great passing shots from rafa at that match.....

maxi, 5/22/10 10:40 AM If you weren't so blinkered you would stop and think before you posted your irrelevant comment.

The point I was making seems to have gone over your head. A was referring to the six Slam Finals Federer didn't win. Five of those were lost to Rafa. Ergo, in recent years only one other person has denied Federer a slam victory.

The main thrust of my comment, however, was that Federer delivers the goods at the Slams rather than at the Masters - 22 Slam finals is testimony to that. I was simply implying a below par performance elsewhere on the tour is not an indication of his performance in a Slam.

well then may be you should have made yourself a bit clearer ed. I cant help it if i am a bit thick can I? next time dont be so bad tempered.

vrael - not one of the four you mentioned is a dark horse!

maxi, you're right Rafa hasn't had much luck at reaching the finals at the US Open. Honestly I think he needs a bit of luck to get there ... maybe 2010 will be that lucky year. :)

then what sort of horse are they??

DONKEY perhaps?

A Frenchman could be a dark horse.

clayking, a friend and I looked for Giraldo and didn't see him in the draw.
Whose half and quarter is he in, did you see?

Ricky's right. None of those players could reasonably be considered a dark horse. In order to be considered one, you must have at least some kind of realistic shot at winning the title.

I think Ricky already picked a dark horse to get to the semifinals - Youzhny. Berdych might be another, Cilic if he was playing better clay court tennis, Gulbis based on his recent resurgence.

I would pick a few of the Spanish players, but they are all in Rafa's half of the draw and will not get by him.

mara,
giraldo is in 3rd quarter and has a potential 2nd round meeting with djoko boy..

Can I say that the Swiss players also bent over for Fed? I still remember how apologetic Wawrinka was last year when he had beaten Fed at MC, contrast that to Nole, when he had beaten Fed at Miami and then Rome. I guess all Swiss players do not believe that they can beat Fed.

Now that Gulbis is gone, I'm looking forward to Cilic to reach the fourth round to
meet and beat Soderling/Montanes. Good chance for him to reach the QF. Let's see Monfils can do something abt Stan n then Fed, I hope to see Cilic/Monfils QF n Berdych/Youzhny QF, and a Cilic/Berdych semi. Like both in that part of the draw n hope Rafa gets to the final n beat one of them there. I hope to see Cilic, Berdych n Ferrer into the top ten this year.

luckystar,

Do you really think Cilic has what it takes to do that well here? He has not had a very good clay court season. I don't see him beating Soderling or Montanes here.

I also wouldn't count on Monfils taking out Fed.

Well well I can only hope!

Cilic did reach the final in Munich and lost to Youzhny. He lost to Lopez in Rome and Madrid to Ferrer I think. This courts here at RG seems not too fast and not too slow either, don't know whether it will favor Cilic's style of play. If he meets Soderling, he has a better chance of winning than meeting Montanes, a clay court specialist.

I hope to see Cilic/Monfils with Cilic winning, the last time they met (in the Paris Open), Cilic lost to Monfils in the QF. After Rafa, Cilic is my next favorite. Well after Rafa is gone from tennis, at least there is someone I can root for, though no one can replace Rafa. I hope Cilic can go far at RG this year, with many of the clay court specialist at the other half of the draw, and get back to Top Ten.

I wont count on Monfils to beat Fed. Maybe Cilic has a better chance against Soderling and then Fed, but first he has to get past all the others first. Sometimes, things that seem impossible to happen do happen. We need player A to take out player B, and player C will then take out player A (just like FO 2009, Sod taking out Rafa, and Fed taking out Sod). I'll just wait and see what will happen. It will be perfect for me if my two favorites - Rafa and Cilic - meet in the final, with Rafa winning of course, and even the H2H to 1-1, not to mention the improvement in rankings for both of them!!

One can only hope, as there is nothing much I can do!

Federers draw has now become a lot easier in the early stages as Tipspevravic and Lopez are out.

Tipsy n lopez no threat to Fed, not even Stan n Monfils. I think those left in his qtr that have slim chances are Sodetling/Montanes n maybe Cilic. I'm not convinced though about their chances, just hoping for miracle to happen n Cilic reaches the SF.