Ricky Dimon

• 2010 French Open draw analysis

  2010-05-21 15:44:14
  

  Prior to 2009, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal had faced each other in four consecutive French Opens, including three straight finals.

   

  Robin Soderling crashed the party the party last year. Who—if anyone—will it be in 2010? Can anyone stop Nadal-Federer XXII? Let’s take a look at the draw to find out.

   

  Federer’s quarter

   

  This section of the draw is absolutely loaded. The good news for Federer, though, is that he will only have to face—at most—two of the quarter’s serious contenders. He should be able to cruise past opponents like Peter Luczak, Janko Tipsarevic, and Feliciano Lopez into the fourth round, where either Stanislas Wawrinka or Gael Monfils will likely await.

   

  The real interest is in the other half of this bracket, which features Soderling, Marin Cilic, Ernests Gulbis, and Albert Montanes. Soderling is the defending runner-up, Cilic reached the Aussie Open semis earlier this season and he has had success on clay, Gulbis is on fire, and Montanes is the essence of a clay-court specialist. Will whoever emerges out of that scrum have enough left for Federer in the quarters?

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — Florian Mayer vs. (13) Gael Monfils
  
  Mayer and Monfils have faced each other just once, and that matchup came five years as Monfils prevailed 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-5 in the Sopot final for his first career title. Even though the Frenchman is heavily favored, this one could be just as good. The oft-injured Mayer is back on tour and he reached the third round of this year’s Australian Open before falling to Juan Martin Del Potro in a tight four-setter. Monfils has not been playing well of late, so he better get his game together in a hurry.
  
  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – Leonardo Mayer vs. (23) Ernests Gulbis
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (29) Albert Montanes vs. (5) Robin Soderling

   

  What to Watch For — Can anyone beat Federer? While Gulbis is the only one of the challengers in particularly outstanding form at the moment, this quarter is dripping with talent at every turn. Soderling. Cilic. Monfils. Wawrinka. Gulbis. If one of these guys—or more—cruises through the early rounds in devastating fashion, things could get interesting for the world No. 1.
  
  Murray’s quarter

   

  The second quarter of the French Open draw is one of the most wide open sections I have ever seen. It has—at least on clay—the most vulnerable Top 4 seed (Andy Murray) and one of the most vulnerable 5-8 seeds (Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). It also has none of the top clay-court specialists except for Tommy Robredo, who has been dealing with a knee injury.
  
  Honestly, just about anyone can emerge out of this bracket and reach the semifinals. Two of the best bets to accomplish that feat are Tomas Berdych and Mikhail Youzhny, who are on opposite sides of the bracket. Berdych and Youzhny, however, could have tough third-round matchups on their hands with John Isner and Robredo, respectively. Also, don’t be surprised if the Murray vs. Richard Gasquet first-round winner makes a serious run.

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — (4) Andy Murray vs. Richard Gasquet
  
  Gasquet has been dealt some brutal Grand Slam draws upon his return to tennis last summer: Nadal in the first round of the U.S. Open, Youzhny in the first round of the Australian Open, and now Murray in the first round of the French Open. At the same time, of course, this is also a brutal draw for Murray.
  
  These two have met on three previous occasions, with Gasquet leading the head-to-head series 2-1. The Frenchman could be ahead 3-0, but Murray stormed back to win their most memorable encounter 5-7, 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-2, 6-4 in the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2008. While the quality of this one won’t be as good since Murray is far more comfortable on grass and Gasquet is still a little bit rusty, another five-set thriller would not be unexpected.
  
  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – Philipp Petzschner vs. (21) Tommy Robredo
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – Thiemo De Bakker vs. (8) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

   

  What to Watch For — Is Tsonga finally going to step up on his biggest stage? The Frenchman has made only two appearances at the French Open, mainly due to physical problems, and he has never been past the fourth round. With this kind of draw, he now has a huge opportunity to take control of this quarter and reach the semifinals. If Tsonga can get through possible early-round tests against Lukasz Kubot and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, that could give him the momentum he needs.

   

  Djokovic’s quarter

   

  This should probably be referred to as "Ferrer’s quarter" since David Ferrer is in scintillating form and has to be considered the favorite to reach the semifinals. In fact, while the seeds say that this quarterfinal should be Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Roddick, the smart clay-court money says that this quarterfinal will be Ferrer vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero.

   

  Ferrer-Ferrero, though, is far from a sure thing. This section is not as quite as wide open as the previous one, but it still presents a huge opportunity for some surprise breakout performances, as there are no dominant presences. Djokovic has well-documented breathing issues, Roddick has not played an ATP match since the Sony Ericsson Open, Ferrer is unproven at slams (only one career semifinal), and Ferrero has a knee injury. Juan Monaco, I’m looking at you….

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — Kei Nishikori vs. Santiago Giraldo
  
  Among all-unseeded matchups, this could be the best of the entire first round. Don’t be fooled by Nishikori’s No. 244 ranking. He is a former world No. 56 and—still just 20 years old—he is back from a chronic elbow injury. Back with a bang, I might add. The Japanese sensation has won two straight Challenger tournaments (losing just two total sets in the process), so he is riding a 10-match winning streak into Roland Garros.
  
  Giraldo is also playing stellar tennis right now. The 55th-ranked Colombian, a force on clay, won a clay-court Challenger event last month, qualified for the Rome main draw and reached the third round, and qualified for the Madrid main draw before making it to the second round. This showdown is going to be a high-quality baseline slugfest. Will Nishikori be able to last four—or even five—hours?
  
  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – (6) Andy Roddick vs. Eduardo Schwank
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (16) Juan Carlos Ferrero vs. (18) Sam Querrey

   

  What to Watch For — What’s the deal with Djokovic? The third-ranked Serb retired from his quarterfinal match in Belgrade due to his recurring breathing problem and he also pulled out of the Madrid Masters. It’s hard to say what his status is, but we will know a lot more after one or two French Open matches. If Djokovic is struggling, if Ferrero is really hurt, and if Roddick is rusty, Ferrer could have an easier time than expected reaching the semifinals.

   

  Nadal’s quarter

   

  I don’t see a Robin Soderling in this quarter of the draw. Granted, none of us saw Soderling beating Nadal last year, but I really don’t see a second coming of Soderling in this section. Lleyton Hewitt is too old, Thomaz Bellucci is too young, Ivan Ljubicic and Fernando Gonzalez are too injured, and Fernando Verdasco is too tired. Nicolas Almagro is dangerous, but he simply isn’t good enough to beat Nadal at the French Open.
  
  Nadal’s half of this quarter could not be easier, so the only real interest will come in deciding the Spaniard’s quarterfinal opponent. The top half of this bracket is loaded with Verdasco, Gonzalez, and Almagro, but all of them—as mentioned earlier—come with question marks. Verdasco is the favorite, but Almagro and Gonzalez own two of the best shots in tennis (Almagro’s backhand, Gonzalez’s forehand).

   

  Best First-Round Matchup — (28) Lleyton Hewitt vs. Jeremy Chardy
  
  Hewitt is in the latter stages of his career, but he is battling back admirably from hip surgery and he remains one of the fiercest competitors in the game. Rarely does the Aussie donate free points, and he is especially tough to grind down on clay. Chardy has not won back-to-back matches since the Sony Ericsson Open (in other words, a BAD clay-court season), but he reached the Roland Garros fourth round in 2008 and made it to the third round last season. The Frenchman will have to come up with something special just to make it past the first round this time.

   

  Best Potential Second-Round Matchup – Andreas Seppi vs. (30) Philipp Kohlschreiber
  Best Potential Third-Round Matchup – (19) Nicolas Almagro vs. (12) Fernando Gonzalez

   

  What to Watch For — What do Verdasco and Gonzalez have in the tank? We know what we are going to get from Nadal, and these are the only two players in this section who have the talent to even stay on a clay court with the four-time Roland Garros champion. If Verdasco is still 100 percent following five long weeks of tennis or if Gonzalez is completely recovered from his knee problem, then perhaps Nadal’s quarterfinal match will at least be worth watching.

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