2010-05-20 14:36:44
Leading up to the start of the French Open, Ricky is counting down the Top 25 biggest threats on the red clay of Roland Garros in groups of two, three, or four players. Part 6 features contenders 5-8.
8. Stanislas Wawrinka – Pros: Wawrinka took some time off for the birth of his first child following the Australian Open, and upon his return he lost early in both Indian Wells and Miami. The Swiss, though, is at his best on clay and he won at least two matches in each of his five clay-court tournaments, including a title in Casablanca, a quarterfinal showing in Rome, and a semifinal finish in Belgrade. Wawrinka has reached the third round in each of his past to French Open appearances and should go further than that this time.
Cons: The question is when will Wawrinka step up and make a true impact at a Grand Slam? He has been to fourth round four times (twice at Wimbledon and twice at the U.S. Open), but never beyond. Current results suggest that more of the same might be in the cards; he wins a few matches, then loses to favored players (Novak Djokovic in Monte-Carlo, Rafael Nadal in Rome, and Roger Federer in Madrid, all of which were blowouts).
Bottom line: If Wawrinka is ever going to reach a slam quarterfinal, the time is now. The French Open should be his best Grand Slam, but he won’t get a Top 16 seed and that means he could be playing someone ranked higher than him in the third round. While another third-round exit is possible, even a decent draw could be enough to get Wawrinka over the fourth-round hump.
7. Ernests Gulbis – Pros: Not too many months ago, Gulbis was worried about just getting into the main draw of Grand Slams. Now, all of a sudden, he’s seeded for the French Open. The 21-year-old Latvian reached the semis in Memphis, won his first ATP title in Delray Beach, then in consecutive clay-court tournaments made appearances in the Barcelona quarters, Rome semis, and Madrid quarters. Due to his Madrid performance, Gulbis is not only seeded, but also seeded in the Top 24. That means he will avoid anyone in the Top 8 until at least the fourth round.
Cons: Prior to this sudden emergence (or more like “resurgence,” since he once showed signs of life in 2008), Gulbis was one of the most inconsistent players on the entire tour, if not the most inconsistent. It’s no secret that he is either amazing or terrible; there’s no in between. Gulbis is hot right now, but if donates a few bad sets, will his game go careening off the tracks?
Bottom line: Despite his relative youth, Gulbis is already a former Roland Garros quarterfinalist (2008). Two years later, a return trip to the quarters can almost be expected. In fact, if Gulbis is placed in a quarter away from Federer and Nadal, he will be a trendy pick to reach the semis.
6. Robin Soderling – Pros: Soderling, of course, is the defending French Open runner-up. After his breakout at Roland Garros, the Swede made it to the Wimbledon fourth round (lost to Federer again) and the U.S. quarterfinals (lost to Federer a third time). Perhaps poised for a repeat appearance at the World Tour Finals, Soderling has turned in 2010 results that include a Rotterdam title, Indian Wells and Miami semifinals, and a runner-up in Barcelona.
Cons: Since Barcelona, it has been all downhill for the world No. 7. He got blown out by Wawrinka in the Rome third round, lost his Madrid opener to Nicolas Almagro, and then this week dropped his first match in Nice to Olivier Rochus. Although he has last year’s run on which to fall back, Soderling cannot be heading into Paris with a ton of confidence.
Bottom line: Soderling’s recent results are extremely concerning, but let’s hope—for his sake—that it is just an issue of motivation. Perhaps he will get it together for something huge like a Grand Slam, where he has a ton of points to defend. It’s obvious that he won’t beat Nadal again and clearly he can’t beat Federer, but with the right draw, a semifinal finish would not come as a complete shock.
5. Novak Djokovic – Pros: Djokovic has proven in the past that he is one of the best clay-courters in the business (one of the best players in general, as well, but especially one of the best on clay). He is a two-time French Open semifinalist and a one-time quarterfinalist. While he is not having the same kind of season that he enjoyed in 2009, the Serb has still posted some commendable results: quarterfinals at the Australian Open, a title in Dubai, semifinals in Monte-Carlo, and quarterfinals in Rome.
Cons: Djokovic was one of the hottest—and probably the most consistent—player on clay other than Nadal heading into last year’s French Open. Not so much this time around. He lost early in both Indian Wells and Miami and he did not turn things around during the stretch leading up to Roland Garros. Djokovic got destroyed by Fernando Verdasco in Monte-Carlo, fell to Verdasco again in Rome, pulled out of his second match in Belgrade due to breathing problems, and then had to withdraw from Madrid.
Bottom line: If healthy, Djokovic has a legitimate chance to reach the final and even win the thing if he catches Nadal on an off day. For now, though, that appears to be extremely unlikely. With his form in question and his health even more in limbo, look for Djokovic to pack his bags when he runs into a top-notch clay-courter. Chances are that will happen in the quarterfinals.
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valid point about Wawrinka
Gulbis is already too high
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 2:57 PM
Nah. I think Gulbis makes the quarters at least, which means he SHOULD be in the top 8.
On the other hand, RG clay has always most closely resembled Monte Carlo's, which is where Gulbis performed the worst of the clay events.
We'll see...
cherylmurray , 5/20/10 3:03 PM
i HAVE Gulbis in the Top 8
and he is only the No. 23 seed which means he could play Nadal (or someone else in the Top 8) in the fourth round. So we will find out tomorrow morning when the draw comes out if he "SHOULD" make the quarters!
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 3:06 PM
I was responding to the "I have him too high already".
But yes, if he has to play Nadal or Federer in the 4th round, that could put a damper on things for him. For his sake, he better hope he gets Murray or Roddick
cherylmurray , 5/20/10 3:09 PM
Thanks for this rundown, Ricky.
Don't they all hope they draw Muzz or Arod's quarters? Do some of them figure Fed won last year and he's got all the slams he ever needs so he's not that motivated any more, only plays cuz he likes hanging out in the locker room? Or Nadal's knees must be getting shaky after three wins in a row. Don't think so.
So the remaining burning question is, who gets #3? Lump them together and call them Ferrasco? And why is Nando playing this week if he thinks he's a legit contender to go deep? He looked tired last week.
Ramara , 5/20/10 3:24 PM
nadal
federer
ferrer
verdasco
davydenko
these must be the top 5 imho..
vrael , 5/20/10 3:27 PM
Davydenko isnt playing
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 3:30 PM
i think gulbis should be ahead of soderling. and i think that the clay courts were playing faster last year,so that could work to his advantage.
tj600 , 5/20/10 3:33 PM
yeah...just checked.
vrael , 5/20/10 3:38 PM
cheryl...roland garros's clay resembles monte carlo but its still faster than many clay courts...its certainly faster than monte carlo by what i have seen....does the weather affect the nature their at paris...or nything else??
vrael , 5/20/10 3:41 PM
GULBIS definitely ahead of Soderling. BUT you really cant start backing GULBIS with any confidence. never know which GULBIS turns up.
I still believe that he is the only one who has the best chance of beating Rafa, if he brings is A game into thier potential match and Rafa has a off day. Otherwise even if Rafa hs a off day, I dont see anyone beating him.
atul1985 , 5/20/10 3:47 PM
vrael - last year was an exception. It DID play faster then - it seemed to me that the grounds people, for whatever reason, spread quite a bit less crushed brick than previous years. The weather was also dry and hot last year.
Clay and grass courts are much more reactive to the weather than hards. the surfaces are organic and will absorb (or evaporate) depending on the amount of moisture in the air. the drier it is, the faster the courts will play.
On hard courts, for the most part, it's the ball (and the way it moves through the air) that reacts to the weather.
cherylmurray , 5/20/10 4:06 PM
thanks a ton for explaining that cheryl
vrael , 5/20/10 4:14 PM
A French man could be in Semi-Finals, Tsonga or Monfils. Soderling will be upset, and so will be Gulbis. Spaniards barring Rafa good only for quarters or Semis at most. Difficult to look beyond Rafa, R.F or Djokovic as winner.
eskay , 5/20/10 4:54 PM
by the way, can someone tell me what happened in the federer scheuttler match??
i cannot find the result online nor on the official website..
clayking , 5/20/10 4:55 PM
CLAYKING:
roger Federer beat Rainer Schuettler 4-6 6-3 10-5 in THE exhibition game in Paris
vrael , 5/20/10 5:16 PM
it went to 3 sets??
what shall i make of that??
clayking , 5/20/10 5:18 PM
yeah.....actually there is only one link i have in french that tells abt the result
http://www.tsr.ch/sport/tennis/1993248-roger-federer-a-battu -rainer-schuettler-4-6-6-3-10-5-lors-d-un-match-exhibition-a-paris.htm l
remove the spaces that are generated automatically here at TT...
i cant understand the scoreline either clayking
vrael , 5/20/10 5:21 PM
That must be the third set super tie breaker. But exhibition matches do not reveal the competitiveness, do they?
eskay , 5/20/10 5:29 PM
super tie breaker in the third...ricky cleared that up for me
nd y the hell did roger lost a set....being too casual...eh roger???
vrael , 5/20/10 5:37 PM
May be losing a set be good for spectators of an exhibition match. Business tactics - not match fixing though.
eskay , 5/20/10 5:46 PM
oh i knew the scores were following doubles rules for 3rd set..
what i meant was what shall i make of the performance??
surely, losing a set to a 34 year old who is outside top 50 and does not consider clay as his favourite surface is not a good sign for a world no.1..
really the conditions there are exactly as it would be in paris..
maybe i'm reading too much into the loss of a set..
clayking , 5/20/10 5:47 PM
eskey......roger is too proud to lose a set to world no. 75....he was beaten..except it
federer would have been careless in the first set...thts the only explanation i cant think of.....
vrael , 5/20/10 5:51 PM
Sometimes lot of fooling around in exhibition matches. These do not go on record. Good for practice though.
eskay , 5/20/10 5:54 PM
I'm sure Federer was just messing around, working on different things. He clearly did not care about Estoril and that was a real ATP event. So there's no way he actually cares about this.
Also, why is this being discussed on THIS of all threads!?!?!?!?
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 5:56 PM
Ricky, your above is interesting to read. thanks. Could you explain though. Your conflab with cheryl, you say that gulbis is already too high? yet it was yourself who placed him at no. 7? (your post 2.57pm).
Could you explain?
maxi , 5/20/10 6:00 PM
can't wait for FO, federer fans!
From Reuters:
When the French Open begins on Sunday the men's drawsheet will have a familiar look with Swiss world number one Federer and his claycourt nemesis separated by 126 other players -- six wins each away from an eighth grand slam final clash.
Twelve months ago Nadal's lock on Roland Garros was cracked by Sweden's Robin Soderling in a stunning fourth-round loss and Federer slid through the door to claim the elusive major he craved.
It completed his career slam and as the Swiss marched on to claim a record breaking 15th major at Wimbledon a few weeks later, Nadal watched from afar in Spain, the tendonitis in his knees casting doubts over his career and his off-court harmony shattered by his parents split.
Suddenly a classic rivalry that had elevated men's tennis to supreme new heights looked in jeopardy.
Nadal's aura faded to such an extent that after returning in Montreal he failed to win a title for the rest of the year and when he was outgunned by Briton Andy Murray in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open this year many thought his swashbuckling days were behind him at the age of 23.
Thankfully, talk of his demise was greatly exaggerated and the reassuring feel of red dust under his feet has re-ignited Nadal's engines and after dropping just 14 games on his way to a sixth successive Monte Carlo title last month the world knew that Rafa was back.
INCREDIBLE STUFF
Not that Federer, who will arrive in Paris as top seed but without a title since the Australian Open, ever doubted it.
"I expected him to come back strong, for me he was never gone," Federer said last week in Madrid before they met in a final for the first time in more than a year -- Nadal's victory taking him past Andre Agassi's record of 17 Masters titles.
"I knew that once the French and once the claycourt season came around he was would be very hard to beat. He has come up with some incredible stuff recently. He's Rafa Nadal after all."
Whereas many of his 13 previous defeats against Nadal gnawed away at Federer's ego, the Swiss was sanguine after losing in the Spanish capital, clearly pleased to have his sparring partner on the other side of the net again.
Federer needs the challenge of a fit and firing Nadal and while last year's French Open title confirmed him as the greatest all-round player to wield a racket, he would have loved to have won it by beating the Spaniard.
Nadal, who will have plenty of Spanish company, not least the dangerous David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco, could hardly be in better shape as he arrives in Paris looking to reclaim the Coupe de Mousquetaires.
The 23-year-old's hat-trick of claycourt titles at Monte Carlo, Rome and Madrid was unprecedented and he still looks to have plenty in the tank.
His serve is much improved this season and his backhand is now being hit flatter and harder while the forehand is still the spitting, snarling beast that it always was.
Nadal, however, is not one to big himself up, playing down his favorite's tag last week.
"I don't think I am," he said. "I'm very happy with what has happened up to now, I've got back to my best level and that's the important thing. Who knows what will happen in a week and a half or two weeks, there is more than one contender, there are many contenders."
Few of those look capable of stopping him.
World number three Novak Djokovic has lost twice to Verdasco in the run-up, number four Murray has suffered an alarming dip since losing to Federer in the Australian Open final and France's main hope, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, has struggled during the European claycourt swing.
Injuries have already bitten into the men's draw with Argentina's Juan Martin del Potro and Russian Nikolay Davydenko both sidelined. Parisian clay has many pitfalls but few would bet against anything other than a return to business as usual for the world's top two players.
maxi , 5/20/10 6:02 PM
sorry ricky..
just asked it here because this was the thread that had the maximum activity in last 3 hrs..
since i wanted to know the result , just asked it here..
sorry about hijacking the thread :P
clayking , 5/20/10 6:03 PM
clayking - oh I don't care. I was just wondering why it is being discussed here. That's fine that it is. Better here than nowhere.
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 6:05 PM
maxi - maxi - I was mostly joking. But Gulbis is the No. 23 seed and I have him ranked as the No. 7 contender. So if anything, obviously he is too high rather than too low.
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 6:06 PM
Wawarinka at no. 8 looks highly overrated. Mikhael Youzhny and Ferrero not serious contenders. Andy Murray at no. 15 highly underrated. He will make serious bid for Wimbledon and therefore will have F.O and London grass (pre-Wimbledon) as confidence builders. His recent failures should not be taken more seriously then those of R.F prior to Madrid.
eskay , 5/20/10 6:06 PM
eskay - Federer is a proven winner on clay. Murray is a proven loser on clay. They cannot be compared in any way.
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 6:14 PM
Could be right, but then did the surface matter when the king of clay triumphed at Wimbledon. Andy's appearance in A.O finals must have given him more confidence than otherwise. Does not the pedigree matter?
eskay , 5/20/10 6:20 PM
andy lost a lot of confidence after ao imo eskey....he would not like to remember anything from that tournament...except some good wins over rafa and few others..
vrael , 5/20/10 6:26 PM
eskay - yes, the surface did matter when Nadal won at Wimbledon. If that had been on a hard court, he obviously would not have won.
As for Murray, only his clay-court results will give us an idea of how he will fare at the French.
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 6:30 PM
My feeling is that Andy has the class to perform better than the predicted last 16, this year particularly. His form at the moment may not be good, but class may prevail. I would place him ahead of Wawrinka, who has become more of a journey man these days.
eskay , 5/20/10 6:46 PM
eskay - you are making too many general statements and not factoring in the surface enough.
on clay, Wawrinka has a MUCH better chance to have success than Murray
RickyDimon , 5/20/10 7:13 PM
For a start Wawrinka has already beaten Federer on clay - albeit just after his Fed's wedding when he made an unscheduled appearance at Monte Carlo.
ed251137 , 5/20/10 7:37 PM
Murray's good results on clay are the exception rather than the rule. He can sometimes luck into good results if draws pan out for him, but one good clay court opponent means bye bye for Muzza.
I agree with Ricky's placement there. I also agree that Nadal would probably have not won wimbledon had it been on hard courts. Nadal is an EXCELLENT grass-court player. In fact, if I might be controversial in Ricky's thread, I enjoy Nadal's grass court tennis more than I do his clay court tennis.
Gulbis has already proven that he can play on clay. He made the quarters in Paris when he was still a kid, and he played really well this year.
cherylmurray , 5/20/10 8:06 PM
Ricky, thank you very much for putting up these six parts, waiting for the last one.
i know it it .ferer4 going to be
1.nadal
2.federer
3.nando
4.ferrer
RG clay resembles MC clay but RG clay is a bit faster BUT the bounce on RG clay is extrememly high so rafa's forehand becomes even more venomous there. Yes ,the weather too plays an important role.
vamosrafa , 5/20/10 8:47 PM
I am not one who is yet fully on the Gulbis bandwagon. I agree that he is finally starting to show signs that he may actually realize some of his potential, but I want to sit back and see how RG plays out. I don't know that he should be as high as he is, but we will see if he lives up to it.
On another note, must we have these long articles posted here? It would be easier if a link was posted and then those of us who actually wish to read the entire article could do so on our own. It does tend to clog up the blog discussion.
Nativenewyorker , 5/20/10 8:56 PM
when is the draw ceremony? and is there any link to watch it online?
vamosrafa , 5/20/10 9:55 PM
Native is totally right Ricky and if it wasn't for the broken link, I wouldn't have had to have posted the long article.
Having said that Native, you could have scrolled through. The choice was yours. You chose to whinge - as usual.
maxi , 5/20/10 9:57 PM
native, just to keep you in your whinging mood - vrael also posted a really long post on the other rafa thread, (a longgggg article about rafa), I suppose it could have bene argued that it was "clogging up the blogging", but I enjoyed having a read, saved me having to click on the link, I thought it was friendly of him to do that, no moaning from me on that one! but I suppose because he is a rafa fan, he's forgiven? or perhaps you want to have a go at him as well. the choice is - of course -yours.
maxi , 5/20/10 10:01 PM
hi maxi...how u doin? waiting for you champion to start his title defence eh? :)
vamosrafa , 5/20/10 10:59 PM
The draw starts at 11:30 CET, but the women's draw is first.
cherylmurray , 5/21/10 2:17 AM
Soderling just went out to Olivier Rochus in Nice.
(maxi, when are you and nadline going to stop fighting? I haven't been here in three days. I left, you were fighting. I come back, you're still fighting. Will you two please put a sock in it and celebrate this great rivalry like true fans? :-) )
mara002 , 5/21/10 2:20 AM
Contenders 3 and 4 - http://tiny.cc/0bmku
RickyDimon , 5/21/10 4:39 AM
mara002,
It will never stop because one person never lets go. I should know! You don't even have to address a comment to this individual, yet you can come back here and - lo and behold - this person has again addressed you for the umpteenth time.
By the way, is "whinging" a word? I don't get it! :)
Nativenewyorker , 5/21/10 5:14 AM
Let me please clarify, since we must once more go tit for tat with these endless, childish ramblings - for the record, I would not like to see entire, lengthy articles posted whether it's by a Fed fan, Rafa fan, Djoker fan, Murray fan, Roddick fan, Gulbis fan, and on and on and on. I don't care who it's about. It clutters up the blog and there is no reason for anyone to have to scroll through this long articles over an over again. If at all possible, a link should suffice! :)
Nativenewyorker , 5/21/10 5:20 AM
aye aye captain!!!
vrael , 5/21/10 7:05 AM
http://rafaelnadal.com/content/tourbillon-watch-rm-027-rafael-nadal
some very sweet things said by richard mille.....rafa looks so happy
vrael , 5/21/10 8:43 AM
With that smile and the perfect teeth it is surprising Rafa has not been snapped up by a toothpaste campaign.
ed251137 , 5/21/10 9:30 AM
thats all well and good getting praise and money from sponsors but does nadal even want to win the frenchopen or is he going there to be a fashion idol?
last year it was pink shirts, this year it is million dollar watches.
and he has to get used to playing with a watch now, something he didnt even practice in madrid or rome or monte carlo.
out of the blue he has to play matches wearing watches?
practicing and match play are 2 different things.
does this clown nadal want to be french open champion or a poodle for these sponsors?
it seems to me like his mind is definitely not on winning the french open and its on satisfying these sponsors.
this is what happens when greed becomes a habit.
only thing nadal should care about is winning 7 matches, nothing else should matter.
next some other mug sponsor will ask him to wear a man thong on court because its fashionable.
nadal will lose alot of his fans if he loses at the french open this year.
if his priorities are sponsors and winning masters 1000, then he might as well not show up to these grand slams.
just stay home.
he is too distracted and big hitters will jump on him like a bad rash if he is even 5% off his game since the courts are faster and the balls are moving through the air faster.
after getting humiliated by murray at the aussie open, nadal has not learnt his lesson from last year.
attackingtennisrulez , 5/21/10 9:32 AM
vamosrafa, I'm really well thank you. How are you? Still celebrating?
Mara?
mara002 , 5/21/10 2:20 AM
Considering I havent been here for near on a week, nor do I have the urge to discuss anything remotely with nadline, i dont know what you are talking about, are you the police by the way?
Native, it doesnt surprise me that you dont know what whinging means. it doesnt matter. havent got the energy. It's too hot.
Booooo Native. why are you such a whinger. This thread is for everyone to share ideas/articles/links/ whatever, try to be more of a happy camper, you're so miserable!
maxi , 5/21/10 6:24 PM
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Hmm...I might have ranked Gulbis a bit higher and wawa a bit lower. Wawa doesn't perform well when the pressure is on. He's a good clay-courter, but his Slam performances remind me more of James Blake than Roger Federer.
cherylmurray , 5/20/10 2:54 PM